Iraq Oil Exports Up In June But Prices Dip

Iraq’s oil exports were up slightly in June, but a slight dip in prices meant revenues were down.

Petroleum exports went from 3.489 million barrels a day in May to 3.521 million in June. That was the highest rate since December 2017. Prices however dropped from $69.80 per barrel in May to $69.32 in June. That caused profits to decline from $7.551 billion in May to $7.323 billion in June. Despite the dip, Iraq is still earning more than what is set in the 2018 budget, which will mean the country will run a surplus after a few years of deficits due to the collapse in the international oil market and the war against the Islamic State. Overall, after exports were flat from 2016-2017 they have finally gone up to an average of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2018, and Iraqi crude is going for $60 per barrel for the first time since the end of 2014.

The North Oil Company reported that production at its fields increased. Almost all of that petroleum is going to refineries in Kurdistan. Unofficially, trucks have begun making deliveries to a refinery in eastern Iran as well. In December 2017, the two countries signed a one year agreement to truck 30,000-60,000 barrels a day from Kirkuk to Iran. At the start of June, Tehran claimed the first trucks arrived, but that was denied by Baghdad. The Oil Ministry said this was just a test, but the shipments continued.

Baghdad is also in talks with Irbil to restart exports via the Kurdish pipeline to Turkey. That ended when federal forces took control of Kirkuk in October 2017. Iraq is in the middle of an expansion program for its energy sector and wants to maximize its production and sales. There are still huge political differences between the central and regional governments, which will probably not be resolved until a new administration is formed after the recent elections.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018

Month	Avg Export (Mil)	Avg Price	Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2014	2.228	$102.37	$7.073
Feb	2.799	$102.05	$7.9
Mar	2.396	$101.03	$7.507
Apr	2.51	$100.69	$7.582
May	2.58	$100.69	$8.077
Jun	2.423	$102.96	$7.47
Jul	2.442	$102.27	$7.8
Aug	2.375	$97.44	$7.172
Sep	2.542	$90.76	$7
Oct	2.461	$81.12	$6.19
Nov	2.51	$70.40	$5.238
Dec	2.94	$57	$5.195
2014 Totals	2.517	$92.39	$7.017
Jan 2015	2.535	$41.45	$3.258
Feb	2.597	$47.43	$3.449
Mar	2.980	$48.24	$3.449
Apr	3.077	$51.70	$4.8
May	3.145	$55.87	$5.447
Jun	3.187	$55.32	$5.289
Jul	3.105	$50.99	$4.908
Aug	3.079	$40.59	$3.925
Sep	3.052	$40.32	$3.725
Oct	2.703	$39.56	$3.29
Nov	3.363	$36.42	$3.66
Dec	3.216	$29.84	$2.92
2015 Totals	3.003	$44.81	$4.094
Jan 2016	3.285	$22.21	$2.262
Feb	3.224	$23	$2.249
Mar	3.287	$28.40	$2.894
Apr	3.363	$33.38	$3.368
May	3.2	$37.78	$3.748
Jun	3.175	$40.36	$3.845
Jul	3.203	$38.28	$3.802
Aug	3.229	$29.24	$3.928
Sep	3.276	$38.89	$3.822
Oct	3.384	-	$4.426
Nov	3.47	$40	$4.216
Dec	3.52	-	$5.074
2016 Totals	3.302	-	$3.625
Jan 2017	3.321	-	$5.002
Feb	3.270	-	$4.514
Mar	3.258	$47.18	$4.766
Apr	3.253	$47.27	$4.607
May	3.261	$47	$4.623
Jun	3.273	$42.07	$4.144
Jul	3.230	$43.80	$4.386
Aug	3.216	-	$4.608
Sep	3.24	-	$4.882
Oct	3.346	$52.59	$5.456
Nov	3.502	$59.19	$6.021
Dec	3.535	$59.35	$6.504
2017 Totals	3.309	-	$4.959
Jan 2018	3.490	$63.29	$6.847
Feb	3.426	$60.14	$5.77
Mar	3.453	$59.95	$6.418
Apr	3.34	$64.60	$6.502
May	3.489	$69.80	$7.551
Jun	3.521	$69.32	$7.323

SOURCES

Baghdad Post, “Iraq-Iran Kirkuk oil swap deal has not started: Iraqi minister,” 6/7/18

Kullab, Samya, Ali, Amir, Tahir, Rawaz, Hussein, Mohammed, “Iraq denies official start of Kirkuk-Iran exports,” Iraq Oil Report, 6/5/18

Lando, Ben, “Iraqi oil exports steady in June though federal revenues fall,” Iraq Oil Report, 7/2/18

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Iraqi oil minister says talks continue with Kurds on oil exports,” Iraqi News, 7/2/18

Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Iraq oil exports from southern ports rise to 3.521 mln bpd in June – oil ministry,” 7/1/18

Trend, “Iran starts oil swap with Iraq’s Kirkuk,” 6/3/18