Monday, August 6, 2018

Iraq Earns Highest Oil Revenue In 4 Yrs


In July, Iraq reached its highest post-03 export average at 3.543 million barrels a day. The previous high was achieved in December 2017 at 3.52 million barrels. All of the oil came from the south. The Kirkuk-Turkey pipeline is still out of service due to war damage, and Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) no longer have a deal to use its line. Some oil is also being trucked from Kirkuk to Iran, but that is being done in a semi-formal capacity, and is not being counted by the Oil Ministry. Exports continuously fluctuate due to weather, maintenance, etc. In 2018, the country has been exporting on average 3.4 million barrels a day, which is slightly up from 2017’s 3.3 million barrels.

Oil prices have been climbing back up after collapsing in 2014. In July, Baghdad sold its crude for $69.16 per barrel. That was roughly the same as the last two months with June at $69.32 and May at $69.80. Prices have been above $60 six of the seven months of the year. Figures are incomplete for 2017 but prices ranged from $40-$50.

The high prices and exports led to the highest revenues in four years. In July, Iraq earned $7.597 billion. The previous high for the year was May’s $7.551. Those were the highest figures since July 2014’s $7.8 billion. The added money is a positive for Baghdad, which has been running a deficit due to low oil prices and the cost of the war against the Islamic State. This year it should come out with a healthy surplus. There was talk of parliament passing a supplemental budget, but forming a new government has been dragged out due to charges of fraud and a manual recount. That still leaves four months for the new lawmakers to forge a bill. That would help appease some of the anger being shown in the street with this summer’s protests over the lack of services. It would also benefit the political parties because it would offer more changes for graft.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
Month
Avg Export (Mil)
Avg Price
Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2014
2.228
$102.37
$7.073
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$7.9
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.51
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.58
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.47
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.8
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$7
Oct
2.461
$81.12
$6.19
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.238
Dec
2.94
$57
$5.195
2014 Totals
2.517
$92.39
$7.017
Jan 2015
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.980
$48.24
$3.449
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.105
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.925
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.725
Oct
2.703
$39.56
$3.29
Nov
3.363
$36.42
$3.66
Dec
3.216
$29.84
$2.92
2015 Totals
3.003
$44.81
$4.094
Jan 2016
3.285
$22.21
$2.262
Feb
3.224
$23
$2.249
Mar
3.287
$28.40
$2.894
Apr
3.363
$33.38
$3.368
May
3.2
$37.78
$3.748
Jun
3.175
$40.36
$3.845
Jul
3.203
$38.28
$3.802
Aug
3.229
$29.24
$3.928
Sep
3.276
$38.89
$3.822
Oct
3.384
-
$4.426
Nov
3.47
$40
$4.216
Dec
3.52
-
$5.074
2016 Totals
3.302
-
$3.625
Jan 2017
3.321
-
$5.002
Feb
3.270
-
$4.514
Mar
3.258
$47.18
$4.766
Apr
3.253
$47.27
$4.607
May
3.261
$47
$4.623
Jun
3.273
$42.07
$4.144
Jul
3.230
$43.80
$4.386
Aug
3.216
-
$4.608
Sep
3.24
-
$4.882
Oct
3.346
$52.59
$5.456
Nov
3.502
$59.19
$6.021
Dec
3.535
$59.35
$6.504
2017 Totals
3.309
-
$4.959
Jan 2018
3.490
$63.29
$6.847
Feb
3.426
$60.14
$5.77
Mar
3.453
$59.95
$6.418
Apr
3.34
$64.60
$6.502
May
3.489
$69.80
$7.551
Jun
3.521
$69.32
$7.323
Jul
3.543
$69.16
$7.597

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, “Iraqi oil exports steady in June though federal revenues fall,” Iraq Oil Report, 7/2/18

Reuters, “Iraq’s oil exports from southern ports rise to 3.54 million bpd in July,” 8/1/18

Van Heuvelen, Ben, Lando, Ben, “July oil exports and revenues rise,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/1/18


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