October 2018: Islamic State Expanding Operations In Iraq

(Iraqi News)

The Islamic State appeared to enter into a new phase of its rebuilding in October 2018. First, during the winter of 2017 the group’s leadership told its followers to revert to an insurgency because it could no longer take the losses from conventional confrontations with the Iraqi forces and Coalition air strikes. There was then a period of residual violence during this transition until violence finally dipped. In the spring of 2018 incidents levelled off. Since then IS has reconstituted itself in central Iraq, controlling rural areas of Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin. Now in the fall two new trends have begun. First, there has been renewed efforts at mass casualty bombings. Second, there are more sophisticated attacks in Anbar and Ninewa, and increased activity in Baghdad.

There were 222 incidents in Iraq reported in the media in October. That averaged out to 7.1 incidents per day. Since May there have been roughly 7 incidents per day.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Sep-Oct 2018

Province	September	October
Anbar	17	16
Babil	5	5
Baghdad	65	65
Basra	4	3
Diyala	36	35
Dohuk	-	2
Irbil	1	-
Kirkuk	31	48
KRG	11	7
Ninewa	18	25
Salahaddin	21	16

Casualties In Iraq By Province Sep-Oct 2018

Province	September	October
Anbar	52 (15 K, 37 W)	43 (24 K, 19 W)
Babil	9 (4 K, 5 W)	2 (2 W)
Baghdad	101 (31 K, 70 W)	91 (38 K, 53 W)
Basra	2 (1 K, 1 W)	3 (3 K)
Diyala	50 (17 K, 33 W)	46 (17 K, 29 W)
Dohuk	-	12 (12 K)
Irbil	3 (3 K)	-
Kirkuk	60 (33 K, 27 W)	84 (25 K, 59 W)
KRG	38 (34 K, 4 W)	73 (73 K)
Ninewa	98 (77 K, 21 W)	228 (179 K, 49 W)
Salahaddin	100 (24 K, 76 W)	58 (12 K, 46 W)

There were 383 deaths recorded and 257 wounded. 8 Hashd al-Shaabi, 31 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), 39 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 305 civilians lost their lives, while 15 Hashd, 34 ISF, and 208 civilians were injured. Ninewa led the country in casualties with 228, but that was because 136 bodies were found there. More than a year after the province was liberated mass graves are still being discovered and remains found in the rubble of west Mosul. Kurdistan with 73 killed led the country in violent deaths, and Baghdad had the most casualties during the month with 91.

Central Iraq is the main base for IS now. Violence there increased during the summer, but has since dipped. In Diyala for example, incidents went from 1.7 per day in June down to 1.1 in October. Likewise in Salahaddin there were 1.4 incidents in June, down to just 0.5 in October. Kirkuk did see an increase last month with an average of 1.5 per day, the most since June’s 1.8. The number of incidents isn’t as important as the types and locations. IS is active in all the rural areas of Diyala, southern Kirkuk, and northern and central Salahaddin. There are regular attacks on towns, civilians and officials are being kidnapped, taxes are being collected and retaliation for those that refuse to pay, and regular gun battles. There are more and more reports of IS members walking around in the open during the day showing the level of control they have established. The government has little presence in many of these areas, and the constant security operations are completely ineffective as the militants simply slip away while they are in progress, and return when they are done. IS now has a level of control in these areas that it is expanding outwards.

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	20	24	2	7	-	1	-	6	1	1
Feb	14	13	4	3	-	-	-	-	1	-
Mar	29	21	14	5	1	2	1	5	-	-
Apr	13	18	2	2	-	-	-	2	-	-
May	11	11	1	3	1	1	3	4	1	-
Jun	32	17	5	12	-	1	5	4	-	-
Jul	20	19	2	3	-	2	3	1	-	-
Aug	17	18	2	2	1	1	3	3	-	-
Sep	20	12	5	1	-	2	5	5	-	-
Oct	11	22	2	-	-	1	-	4	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars/ Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	13	6	4	1	-	-	-	3	3	1
Feb	21	10	7	3	-	-	-	4	1	-
Mar	22	15	11	2	-	2	1	3	1	1
Apr	18	4	3	1	-	-	8	1	-	1
May	14	28	2	-	2	1	1	4	4	-
Jun	25	12	4	2	-	2	10	6	-	-
Jul	7	20	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	1
Aug	7	20	2	1	2	-	-	2	-	1
Sep	14	25	2	2	1	3	4	2	-	-
Oct	13	28	2	4	2	1	4	3	-	1

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars/ Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	11	9	8	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
Feb	7	5	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-
Mar	23	8	9	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
Apr	6	8	2	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
May	14	10	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	-
Jun	15	15	4	1	-	7	-	-	-	1
Jul	9	6	-	4	-	-	2	1	1	-
Aug	9	15	1	3	-	1	1	1	1	-
Sep	5	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	3	1
Oct	2	9	1	-	-	1	-	1	1	-

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Anbar and Ninewa are two new areas IS has become more active. The number of incidents in the two governorates remains very low. In Anbar for instance, there has been less than one incident per day since October 2017 with just 0.5 per day in October. Likewise, there has been less than one incident per day in Ninewa since March 2018. In October there was 0.8. What is different is the type of attacks. Both have seen renewed suicide and car bombings. There have been 5 such attacks in Anbar since August and 2 in Ninewa since September. As in central Iraq, the militants are returning to attacking towns and kidnappings, and confronting the local security forces.

Islamic State Activity in Anbar 2018

Anbar	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	4	3	2	-	-	1	-	-
Jul	3	5	1	-	-	-	-	-
Aug	4	4	2	1	-	-	-	1
Sep	3	8	-	-	-	-	2	-
Oct	9	5	3	1	1	2	1	1

Islamic State Activity in Ninewa 2018

Ninewa	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	7	2	3	1	-	-	-	-	-
Jul	9	9	1	1	1	1	2	-	-
Aug	9	9	2	-	-	1	1	-	-
Sep	8	3	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
Oct	13	5	-	1	-	1	-	-	1

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

The third area IS is returning to is Baghdad. For four of the last five months the capital province has led the country in incidents. In September and October there were an average of 2 incidents per day. This is a very low number given how big Baghdad city is, but that is far more than any other governorate. The attacks have also moved from the outlying towns in the north and south to the periphery of the city itself. These are almost all shootings, IEDs and sticky bombs, but the fact that IS back into the largest urban area of the country is significant in itself.

Monthly Security Incidents in Iraq by Province Jun-Oct 2018

	Baghdad	Anbar	Diyala	Kirkuk	Ninewa	Salahaddin
Jun	33	13	51	56	12	42
Jul	49	8	46	37	29	23
Aug	58	11	44	32	27	25
Sep	65	17	36	31	18	21
Oct	65	16	35	48	25	16

(Red figure signifies highest number of incidents during the month)

A final sign that IS is entering a new phase is the number of suicide and car bombs has gone back up. In January, when the militants were still transitioning there were 13 mass casualty bombings. That then dropped for the next three months before going back up to 8 in May. There was another drop off from June to August, but then they have increased again in September with 8 and 5 in October. Kirkuk is the only urban area where IS is able to carry out these attacks. As its infiltration into Baghdad shows, it is likely aiming to hit other cities in the future.

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018

Month	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs	Totals
Jan	7 (1- Diyala, 3 – Baghdad, 3 - Kirkuk)	6 (1- Anbar, 1 – Diyala, 1 – Kirkuk, 1 – Salahaddin, 2 - Babil)	13
Feb	4 (1 – Anbar 1 – Diyala 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	-	4
Mar	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 - Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	3
Apr	4 (1 - Salahaddin 3 – Anbar)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	5
May	8 (1 – Diyala 1 - Salahaddin) 2 – Baghdad 4 - Kirkuk)	-	8
Jun		1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1
Jul	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	2
Aug	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Anbar, 1 – Kirkuk)	3
Sep	6 (1 – Ninewa) 2 – Anbar 3 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 – Salahaddin)	8
Oct	2 (1 - Anbar 1 – Salahaddin)	3 (1 – Anbar 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	5

Turkey is making routine attacks upon the PKK in northern Iraq. During October, 31 PKK members were killed in 7 Turkish air raids. In September 37 from the Workers Party died, and the group attacked the Turks as well killing 1 soldier and wounding 4 others within Iraq. Ankara’s incursion into Kurdistan has ended, but it has maintained pressure on the group with constant air strikes.

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439 (218 Violent Deaths)	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649 (233 Violent Deaths)	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611 (466 Violent Deaths)	339
Apr 1-7	40	174	29
Apr 8-14	64	175	83
Apr 15-21	44	63	72
Apr 22-28	44	62	48
Apr 29-30	12	12	4
APR	204	486 (240 Violent Deaths)	236
May 1-7	51	57	56
May 8-14	56	68	49
May 15-21	39	58	82
May 22-28	51	73	51
May 29-31	21	42	15
MAY	218	298 (273 Violent Deaths)	253
Jun 1-7	55	100	32
Jun 8-14	72	108	88
Jun 15-21	42	83	19
Jun 22-28	52	58	65
Jun 29-30	18	22	14
JUN	239	371 (327 Violent Deaths)	218
Jul 1-7	56	58	91
Jul 8-14	44	57	31
Jul 15-21	54	61	64
Jul 22-28	36	65	21
Jul 29-31	24	26	11
JUL	214	267 (222 Violent Deaths)	218
Aug 1-7	49	57	30
Aug 8-14	47	43	51
Aug 15-21	45	26	45
Aug 22-28	42	29	64
Aug 29-31	33	69	44
AUG	216	224 (209 Violent Deaths)	234
Sep 1-7	45	46	61
Sep 8-14	57	67	127
Sep 15-21	50	93	71
Sep 22-28	47	27	33
Sep 29-30	11	20	29
SEP	210	253 (195 Violent Deaths)	321
Oct 1-7	60	88	94
Oct 8-14	50	169	48
Oct 15-21	56	88	37
Oct 22-28	31	28	54
Oct 29-31	25	10	24
OCT	222	383 (193 Violent Deaths)	257

Violence By Province October, 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	16 Incidents 24 Killed 2 Hashd 8 ISF 14 Civilians 19 Wounded 4 ISF 15 Civilians 9 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Sound Bombs Dismantled 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 1 Car Bomb
Babil	5 Incidents 2 Wounded 2 Hashd 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Grenades 2 Mortars
Baghdad	65 Incidents 38 Killed 1 ISF 37 Civilians 53 Wounded 2 ISF 51 Civilians 26 Shootings 13 IEDs 8 Sticky Bombs 2 Sound Bombs 2 Grenades 8 Suicide Bombers Killed
Basra	3 Incidents 3 Killed 3 Civilians
Diyala	35 Incidents 17 Killed 2 Hashd 2 ISF 13 Civilians 29 Wounded 2 ISF 7 Hashd 20 Civilians 11 Shootings 18 IEDs 4 Sound Bombs 4 Mortars 2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Dohuk	2 Incidents 12 Killed 12 PKK 2 Turkish Air Strikes
Kirkuk	48 Incidents 25 Killed 3 Hashd 9 ISF 13 Civilians 59 Wounded 4 Hashd 23 ISF 32 Civilians 13 Shootings 28 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 2 Mortars 1 Rockets 7 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kurdistan	7 Incidents 73 Killed 19 PKK 54 Civilians 5 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	25 Incidents 179 Killed 1 Hashd 13 ISF 163 Civilians 49 Wounded 1 ISF 1 Hashd 47 Civilians 13 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Car Bomb
Salahaddin	16 Incidents 12 Killed 6 Civilians 6 ISF 46 Wounded 1 Hashd 2 ISF 43 Civilians 2 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bombers 1 Mortar 1 Suicide Car Bomb Stopped