Islamic State Went Into Hibernation In Winter 2018

(Reuters)

Since the summer of 2018 incidents have declined in Iraq. That ended in December with the lowest number of security incidents ever recorded for a month by Musings On Iraq. The Islamic State largely retreated from Anbar, Baghdad and Salahaddin at the end of the year resulting in the low level of violence.

There were a total of 112 security incidents reported in December 2018, the fewest ever recorded. In June there were 219, 194 in July, 186 in August, 175 in September, 198 in October, and 136 in November showing a steady decline in the second half of the year.

There were 307 deaths and 91 wounded. 200 bodies were found in a mass grave in the Hawija district in south Kirkuk and another 11 were pulled from the rubble of the Old City in Mosul. That left just 95 violent deaths during the month, another low. 1 Peshmerga, 2 Hashd al-Shaabi, 27 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 34 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and 243 civilians lost their lives. 6 PKK, 8 Hashd, 26 ISF, and 51 Civilians were also injured. Removing the dead bodies found Ninewa had the most casualties during the month with 25 killed and 37 wounded.

The Islamic State made forays into Anbar, Baghdad and Salahaddin throughout the year, but then pulled back in the winter. During the fall the Islamic State made some attempts at mass casualty bombings in Anbar. There were suicide and car bombs from August to October. After that attacks declined to single digits with just 8 in December. Baghdad and Salahaddin also saw a sharp decline during the winter. In the capital province incidents went from 30 in October to 13 in November to 14 in December. Likewise, attacks in Salahaddin went from 20 in September, to 15 in October, to 17 in November, down to 8 in December. Like Anbar, there were suicide-car bombs during the fall to early winter in the province, but then all incidents fell off. These trends were the main reasons why December had the lowest total casualties of the year.

Diyala, southern Kirkuk and southern Ninewa remained the main areas IS was rebuilding in. there were 28 incidents in Diyala during the month including 3 gun battles, 3 attacks on checkpoints, and one town was attacked. In Kirkuk, a mukhtar was attacked, there were three kidnapping incidents including one day towards the end of the month were 18 people were snatched in one day and then one more two days later, and one town was assaulted. Finally, in Ninewa there was one gun battle, 3 attacks upon mukhtars and a car bomb, the only one of the month in Tal Afar in the west. In these three provinces, IS has established effective control of many of the rural areas. The government has been ineffective in countering this rebirth. The security sweeps, which occur all the time don’t work as the insurgents move out when they happen, and then return when they are over. Like the rest of the country, attacks in these three governorates went down at the end of the year, but that is not a sign that their influence is down there.

Finally, Turkey continued with its constant air strikes upon PKK positions in northern Kurdistan. Usually these go without comment by Baghdad even though it is a violation of its sovereignty. During December however Ankara raised the ire of the government when it struck two areas in Ninewa. The Mahdi administration objected, but Turkey declared that it would continue with these operations. Iraq simply is too weak militarily to do anything about this. It doesn't have the air force strength to monitor its own air space, the areas in Ninewa that were struck are under control of various different security forces that are only under nominal control of the central government, and neither Baghdad nor the Kurdistan Regional Government has any presence in the northern border area. That means these attacks upon the PKK will continue until Turkey changes its policy.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31
Anbar	2	-	5	1	-
Babil	1	-	-	1	-
Baghdad	-	3	2	6	4
Diyala	4	8	3	8	5
Kirkuk	3	4	4	5	2
KRG	7	-	2	2	1
Ninewa	2	5	5	7	3
Qadisiya	-	1	-	-	-
Salahaddin	3	1	2	2	-
TOTALS	22	22	23	30	15

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31
Anbar	2 (2K)	-	19 (6K, 13W)		-
Babil	4 (4W)	-	-	2 (2W)	-
Baghdad	-	1 (1K)	2 (2K)	5 (5K)	2 (2K)
Diyala	2 (1K, 1W)	11 (3K, 8W)	3 (2K, 1W)	8 (4K, 4W)	7 (5K, 2W)
Kirkuk	5 (1K, 4W)	10 (3K, 7W)	2 (2W)	1 (1W)	202 (200 K, 2W)
KRG	13 (13K)	-	7 (7K)	6 (6K)	5 (5K)
Ninewa	2 (2K)	14 (8K, 6W)	6 (5K, 1W)	39 (9K, 30W)	12 (12K)
Qadisiya	-	1 (1W)	-	-	-
Salahaddin	4 (2K, 2W)	-	1 (1K)	-	-
TOTALS	32 (21K, 11W)	37 (15K, 22W)	40 (23K, 17W)	61 (24K, 37W)	228 (224K, 4W)

Islamic State Activity in Anbar 2018

Anbar	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	4	3	2	-	-	1	-	-
Jul	3	5	1	-	-	-	-	-
Aug	4	4	2	1	-	-	-	1
Sep	3	8	-	-	-	-	2	-
Oct	9	5	3	1	1	2	1	1
Nov	1	3	-	-	1	1	-	-
Dec	1	4	-	-	1	-	-	-

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	20	24	2	7	-	1	-	6	1	1
Feb	14	13	4	3	-	-	-	-	1	-
Mar	29	21	14	5	1	2	1	5	-	-
Apr	13	18	2	2	-	-	-	2	-	-
May	11	11	1	3	1	1	3	4	1	-
Jun	32	17	5	12	-	1	5	4	-	-
Jul	20	19	2	3	-	2	3	1	-	-
Aug	17	18	2	2	1	1	3	3	-	-
Sep	20	12	5	1	-	2	5	5	-	-
Oct	11	22	2	-	1	1	-	4	-	-
Nov	17	13	5	2	1	1	4	4	-	-
Dec	15	10	3	3	-	1	1	2	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	13	6	4	1	-	-	-	3	3	1
Feb	21	10	7	3	-	-	-	4	1	-
Mar	22	15	11	2	-	2	1	3	1	1
Apr	18	4	3	1	-	-	8	1	-	1
May	14	28	2	-	2	1	1	4	4	-
Jun	25	12	4	2	-	2	10	6	-	-
Jul	7	20	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	1
Aug	7	20	2	1	2	-	-	2	-	1
Sep	14	25	2	2	1	3	4	2	-	-
Oct	16	29	1	4	4	1	4	2	-	1
Nov	7	7	2	-	-	2	-	1	-	-
Dec	8	6	-	-	1	3	1	2	-	-

Ninewa	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	7	2	3	1	-	-	-	-	-
Jul	9	9	1	1	1	1	2	-	-
Aug	9	9	2	-	-	1	1	-	-
Sep	8	3	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
Oct	13	5	-	1	-	1	-	-	1
Nov	9	7	2	1	-	-	3	-	1
Dec	8	6	1	-	3	1	-	-	1

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	11	9	8	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
Feb	7	5	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-
Mar	23	8	9	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
Apr	6	8	2	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
May	14	10	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	-
Jun	15	15	4	1	-	7	-	-	-	1
Jul	9	6	-	4	-	-	2	1	1	-
Aug	9	15	1	3	-	1	1	1	1	-
Sep	5	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	3	1
Oct	2	9	1	-	-	1	-	1	1	-
Nov	5	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	-	2
Dec	4	-	2	1	-	1	-	1	-	-

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018

Month	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs	Totals
Jan	7 (1- Diyala, 3 – Baghdad/Baghdad, 3 - Kirkuk)	6 (1- Anbar, 1 – Diyala, 1 – Kirkuk, 1 – Salahaddin, 2 - Babil)	13
Feb	4 (1 – Anbar/Ramadi 1 – Diyala 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	-	4
Mar	2 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk 1 - Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	3
Apr	4 (1 - Salahaddin 3 – Anbar)	1 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)	5
May	8 (1 – Diyala 1 - Salahaddin) 2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad 4 - Kirkuk)	-	8
Jun		1 (1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	1
Jul	1 (1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	1 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)	2
Aug	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Anbar, 1 – Kirkuk)	3
Sep	6 (1 – Ninewa) 2 – Anbar 3 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 – Salahaddin)	8
Oct	2 (1 – Anbar/Fallujah 1 – Salahaddin)	3 (1 – Anbar/Fallujah 1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	5
Nov	-	3 (1 – Ninewa/Mosul 2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	3
Dec	-	1 (1 – Ninewa)	1

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	62	45	63
Jan 8-14	58	58	70
Jan 15-21	62	151	151
Jan 22-28	59	140	65
Jan 29-31	24	21	21
JAN 2018	265	417 (196 Bodies Found)	366
Feb 1-7	58	192	62
Feb 8-14	57	58	91
Feb 15-21	53	343	43
Feb 22-28	46	38	70
FEB	214	631 (215 Violent Deaths)	266
Mar 1-7	68	115	79
Mar 8-14	52	75	59
Mar 15-21	64	165	98
Mar 22-28	77	210	61
Mar 29-31	19	26	34
MAR	280	591 (446 Violent Deaths)	331
Apr 1-7	38	172	27
Apr 8-14	60	173	81
Apr 15-21	43	63	72
Apr 22-28	40	60	39
Apr 29-30	12	14	4
APR	193	482 (236 Violent Deaths)	223
May 1-7	45	52	55
May 8-14	55	68	49
May 15-21	35	55	80
May 22-28	49	72	51
May 29-31	16	39	15
MAY	200	286 (261 Violent Deaths)	250
Jun 1-7	50	96	29
Jun 8-14	67	107	88
Jun 15-21	40	82	19
Jun 22-28	45	53	62
Jun 29-30	17	21	14
JUN	219	359 (315 Violent Deaths)	212
Jul 1-7	50	56	90
Jul 8-14	42	56	31
Jul 15-21	50	59	63
Jul 22-28	29	61	19
Jul 29-31	23	25	11
JUL	194	257 (212 Violent Deaths)	214
Aug 1-7	43	49	30
Aug 8-14	43	38	44
Aug 15-21	38	24	40
Aug 22-28	35	25	61
Aug 29-31	27	68	43
AUG	186	204 (189 Violent Deaths)	218
Sep 1-7	38	44	54
Sep 8-14	48	63	127
Sep 15-21	44	90	70
Sep 22-28	36	22	27
Sep 29-30	9	19	29
SEP	175	237 (179 Violent Deaths)	307
Oct 1-7	54	85	92
Oct 8-14	43	161	41
Oct 15-21	54	87	35
Oct 22-28	24	24	53
Oct 29-31	23	10	24
OCT	198	367 (177 Violent Deaths)	245
Nov 1-7	32	75	36
Nov 8-14	39	111	19
Nov 15-21	30	51	29
Nov 22-28	26	36	30
Nov 29-30	9	4	27
NOV	136	276 (183 Violent Deaths_	141
Dec 1-7	22	21	11
Dec 8-14	22	15	22
Dec 15-21	23	23	17
Dec 22-28	30	24	37
Dec 29-31	15	224	4
DEC	112	307 (95 Violent Deaths)	91

Violence By Province Dec 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	8 Incidents 8 Killed 1 Hashd 3 Civilians 4 ISF 13 Wounded 4 Civilians 9 ISF 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 1 Rockets 2 Car Bombs Dismantled
Babil	2 Incidents 6 Wounded 6 Hashd 2 IEDs
Baghdad	15 Incidents 10 Killed 10 Civilians 9 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Rockets 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Diyala	28 Incidents 15 Killed 2 Civilians 13 ISF 16 Wounded 7 Civilians 9 ISF 15 Shootings 10 IEDs 2 Mortars
Kirkuk	17 Incidents 204 Killed 1 Peshmerga 203 Civilians 16 Wounded 16 Civilians 8 Shootings 6 IEDs 2 Mortars
Kurdistan	12 Incidents 31 Killed 31 PKK 12 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	21 Incidents 36 Killed 3 PKK 9 ISF 24 Civilians 37 Wounded 6 PKK 8 ISF 23 Civilians 8 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 1 Grenade 1 Turkish Artillery
Qadisiya	1 Incident 1 Wounded 1 ISF 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	8 Incidents 3 Killed 1 Civilian 1 Hashd 1 ISF 2 Wounded 2 Hashd 4 Shootings 1 Mortar 1 Suicide Bomber Killed