Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Iraq Saw Lowest Violence Ever March 2019

(Shafaaq News)

In March 2019 Iraq witnessed the lowest level of violence since the 2003 invasion. There were the fewest attacks every recorded by Musings On Iraq and casualties were extremely low as well especially because most were the results of two mass graves and a clash between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Turkish soldiers in northern Kurdistan. The low level of activity by the Islamic State is likely due to two factors. First, the group carried out its traditional spring-summer offensive and reduced its attacks afterwards. Second, it appears that IS is holding back from carrying out more operations as it rebuilds.

There were a total of 63 incidents recorded in March. Two were between the PKK and Turkey and two were mass graves being discovered leaving 59 likely attacks by the Islamic State. Diyala with 17, Kirkuk with 15, and Ninewa with 11 led the country. This was the lowest monthly total ever recorded by Musings On Iraq and the lowest since the 2003 invasion.

During the spring and summer the Islamic State carried out its traditional offensive. Attacks went from 139 in April to 163 in May and 183 in June for instance. That ended in October and attacks have dropped since then. This has been the usual pattern since 2004. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy speculates that IS is also intentionally holding off on attacks to rebuild its networks.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
Province
Mar 1-7
Mar 8-14
Mar 15-21
Mar 22-28
Mar 29-31
Totals
Anbar
2
2
-
1
-
5
Babil
-
1
-
-
-
1
Baghdad
-
-
2
2
-
4
Diyala
4
6
3
2
2
17
Kirkuk
3
4
4
2
2
15
KRG
-
-
1
1
-
2
Ninewa
4
2
2
3
-
11
Salahaddin
-
4
-
2
2
8
TOTALS
13
19/18
12/11
13/12
6
63/61

Casualties In Iraq By Province
Province
Mar 1-7
Mar 8-14
Mar 15-21
Mar 22-28
Mar 29-31
Totals
Anbar
7 (6K, 1W)
4 (1K, 3W)
-
2 (1K, 1W)
-
13 (8K, 5W)
Babil
-
2 (2K)
-
-
-
2 (2K)
Baghdad
-
-
9 (4K, 5W)
1 (1K)
-
10 (5K, 5W)
Diyala
6 (2K, 4W)
14 (2K, 11W)
3 (2K, 1W)
1 (1K)
3 (1K, 2W)
26 (8K, 18W)
Kirkuk
1 (1K)
3 (1K, 2W)
4 (2K, 2W)
1 (1K)
4 (2K, 2W)
13 (7K, 6W)
KRG
-
-
39 (29K, 10W)
3 (3K)
-
42 (32K, 10W)
Ninewa
53 (13K, 40W)
77 (67K, 10W)
32 (29K, 3 W)
-
-
162 (109K, 53W)
Salahaddin
-
13 (2K, 11W)
-
1 (1K)
8 (5K, 3W)
22 (8K, 14W)
TOTALS
67 (22K, 45W)
112 (75K, 37W)
87 (66K, 21W)
9 (8K, 1W)
15 (8K, 7W)
290 (179K, 111W)

There were 179 deaths and 111 wounded during the month. 9 PKK, 14 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 15 Hashd al-Shaabi, 23 Turkish soldiers and 118 civilians lost their lives, while 10 Turkish soldiers, 23 civilians, 25 ISF, and 53 Hashd were injured. 93 bodies were found in two mass graves in Ninewa leaving 86 violent deaths during the month. Minus casualties from the two PKK-Turkish incidents and 54 were killed and 101 wounded by the militants. Ninewa led the country in casualties even without the two mass graves because of a car bomb in Mosul. Again, this was the lowest casualty count ever recorded by Musings On Iraq.

There were repeated reports that IS fighters were fleeing eastern Syria and entering western Anbar. There was news of tunnel networks along the border where the group is hiding out. In February there was a surge in militant activity in the province leading to 27 incidents showing that the influx of manpower was having its effect. In March however there were only 5 attacks highlighting once again that the group was largely taking the month off.

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-19
Anbar
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Mortars/
Rockets
Kidnappings
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan 2018
8
-
-
-
2
-
-
-
1
Feb
3
8
1
-
-
-
-
1
-
Mar
6
15
3
2
-
1
1
-
-
Apr
1
5
1
-
-
-
-
3
-
May
2
7
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Jun
4
3
2
-
-
-
1
-
-
Jul
3
5
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
Aug
4
4
2
1
-
-
-
-
1
Sep
3
8
-
-
-
-
-
2
-
Oct
9
5
3
1
1
-
2
1
1
Nov
1
3
-
-
1
-
1
-
-
Dec
1
4
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Jan 2019
6
4
1
-
2
-
1
1
1
Feb
10
11
4
1
1
1
4
-
-
Mar
2
1
-
-
-
1
-
-
-

Baghdad has become the forgotten front in the Islamic State’s conflict in Iraq. The capitol used to be the center of terrorist attacks with dozens of attacks every day. Now there are hardly any. In March there were just 4. It appears that the insurgents have largely left the province to focus upon the center of the country.

Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin are the heart of IS’s regrouping effort. That’s where the majority of incidents are each month. Of the 59 attacks by IS in March, 49 were in those four governorates. In Diyala there was a gun battle with the security forces and two attacks upon checkpoints. In Kirkuk a checkpoint was assaulted, there were two shootouts between IS and the Iraqi forces, 2 sheikhs were attacked, along with two towns. In Ninewa there was a car bomb in Mosul, the third time in the last five months, and a town was attacked. Finally in Salahaddin, there was one confrontation between IS and the security forces. IS is active in nearly every rural area of these provinces. It also has access to Kirkuk and Mosul cities. There are reports that the group has free reign in many towns at night, that they are collecting taxes, and intimidating locals. The government has no organized response. There are constant security sweeps but most are in reaction to IS activity rather than pre-emptive and intelligence is usually poor unless a specific raid. The result is the insurgents are largely unharassed as they rebuild in the center of the country. The group’s future is still unknown. If it’s relegated to the countryside it will eventually lose relevance and could eventually decline. If it moves back into the cities in the coming months it could return to its terrorist roots. One thing is certain is that IS is coming back together much faster than its last defeat at the hands of the U.S. and Iraqi forces after the Surge. The group’s propaganda talks about how it was beaten before and came back, and it can do it again. It’s proving that it can do that so far.

Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan 2018
20
24
2
7
-
1
-
6
1
1
Feb
14
13
4
3
-
-
-
-
1
-
Mar
29
21
14
5
1
2
1
5
-
-
Apr
13
18
2
2
-
-
-
2
-
-
May
11
11
1
3
1
1
3
4
1
-
Jun
32
17
5
12
-
1
5
4
-
-
Jul
20
19
2
3
-
2
3
1
-
-
Aug
17
18
2
2
1
1
3
3
-
-
Sep
20
12
5
1
-
2
5
5
-
-
Oct
11
22
2
-
1
1
-
4
-
-
Nov
17
13
5
2
1
1
4
4
-
-
Dec
15
10
3
3
-
1
1
2
-
-
Jan 2019
21
2
3
8
-
-
1
5
-
-
Feb
18
2
5
7
-
-
3
4
-
-
Mar
7
6
1
2
-
-
-
2
-
-


Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan 2018
13
6
4
1
-
-
-
3
3
1
Feb
21
10
7
3
-
-
-
4
1
-
Mar
22
15
11
2
-
2
1
3
1
1
Apr
18
4
3
1
-
-
8
1
-
1
May
14
28
2
-
2
1
1
4
4
-
Jun
25
12
4
2
-
2
10
6
-
-
Jul
7
20
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Aug
7
20
2
1
2
-
-
2
-
1
Sep
14
25
2
2
1
3
4
2
-
-
Oct
16
29
1
4
4
1
4
2
-
1
Nov
7
7
2
-
-
2
-
1
-
-
Dec
8
6
-
-
1
3
1
2
-
-
Jan 2019
8
17
-
4
2
3
-
2
-
1
Feb
9
5
3
-
-
2
1
1
-
-
Mar
5
11
2
1
2
-
2
1
-
-


Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan 2018
18
8
7
1
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
19
7
8
1
-
1
-
1
-
Mar
20
6
7
1
-
1
-
-
-
Apr
8
6
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
May
11
6
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jun
7
2
3
1
-
-
-
-
-
Jul
9
9
1
1
1
1
2
-
-
Aug
9
9
2
-
-
1
1
-
-
Sep
8
3
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
Oct
13
5
-
1
-
1
-
-
1
Nov
9
7
2
1
-
-
3
-
1
Dec
8
6
1
-
3
1
-
-
1
Jan 2019
6
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
8
3
2
2
-
-
1
-
1
Mar
6
1
3
-
-
-
1
-
1


Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan 2018
11
9
8
-
-
-
-
2
-
1
Feb
7
5
1
1
-
2
-
-
-
-
Mar
23
8
9
2
-
3
-
-
1
-
Apr
6
8
2
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
May
14
10
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
-
Jun
15
15
4
1
-
7
-
-
-
1
Jul
9
6
-
4
-
-
2
1
1
-
Aug
9
15
1
3
-
1
1
1
1
-
Sep
5
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
3
1
Oct
2
9
1
-
-
1
-
1
1
-
Nov
5
7
2
2
-
1
-
1
-
2
Dec
4
-
2
1
-
1
-
1
-
-
Jan 2019
5
5
3
1
-
3
-
-
-
1
Feb
7
15
3
-
-
2
1
1
1
-
Mar
3
5
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018-19
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad/Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar/Ramadi
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul
2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
3
Dec
-
1
(1 – Ninewa)
1
Jan
1
(1 – Anbar)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
4
Feb
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
2
Mar
-
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
1

Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
Dead
(Total/By IS)
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7
62/60
45
63
Jan 8-14
58/56
58/56
66/63
Jan 15-21
62/59
151
151
Jan 22-28
59/51
140/136
65/63
Jan 29-31
24
21
21
JAN 2018
265/
250 by IS
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
366/
361 by IS
Feb 1-7
58/56
192/141
62/60
Feb 8-14
57
58
91
Feb 15-21
53/52
343
43
Feb 22-28
46/44
38/37
70/68
FEB
214/
209 by IS
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
266/
262 by IS
Mar 1-7
68/64
115/108
79/77
Mar 8-14
52
75
59
Mar 15-21
64/59
165/119
98
Mar 22-28
77/64
210/87
61/60
Mar 29-31
19/18
26/25
34
MAR
280/
257 by IS
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
331/
328 by IS
Apr 1-7
38/34
172/140
27/25
Apr 8-14
60/52
173/136
81/72
Apr 15-21
43/35
63/18
72/70
Apr 22-28
40/31
60/30
39/33
Apr 29-30
12/11
14/11
4
APR
193/
163 by IS
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
223/
204 by IS
May 1-7
45/39
52/43
55/54
May 8-14
55/51
68/46
49
May 15-21
35/32
55/26
80/75
May 22-28
49/46
72/62
51/49
May 29-31
16/13
39/30
15
MAY
200/
181 by IS
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
250/
242 by IS
Jun 1-7
50/44
96/87
29/28
Jun 8-14
67/59
107/47
88
Jun 15-21
40/35
82/28
19
Jun 22-28
45/44
53/38
62
Jun 29-30
17/15
21/16
14
JUN
219/
197 by IS
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
212/
211 by IS
Jul 1-7
50/49
56/52
90
Jul 8-14
42/39
56/47
31
Jul 15-21
50/45
59/42
63
Jul 22-28
29/24
61/53
19/15
Jul 29-31
23/21
25/13
11
JUL
194/
178 by IS
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
214/
210 by IS
Aug 1-7
43/39
49/45
30/29
Aug 8-14
43/42
38
44
Aug 15-21
38/35
24/21
40/37
Aug 22-28
35/31
25/19
61
Aug 29-31
27/24
68/30
43
AUG
186/
171 by IS
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
218/
214 by IS
Sep 1-7
38
44
54
Sep 8-14
48/43
63/55
127
Sep 15-21
44/38
90/74
70
Sep 22-28
36/33
22/17
27/26
Sep 29-30
9/6
19/10
29/25
SEP
175/
158 by IS
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
307/
302 by IS
Oct 1-7
54/49
85/25
92
Oct 8-14
43/41
161/152
41
Oct 15-21
54/50
87/72
35
Oct 22-28
24/23
24/20
53
Oct 29-31
23
10
24
OCT
198/
186 by IS
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
245 by IS
Nov 1-7
32/31
75/69
36
Nov 8-14
39/31
111/63
19
Nov 15-21
30/27
51/43
29
Nov 22-28
26/21
35/25
30
Nov 29-30
9/8
4
27
NOV
136/
118 by IS
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
141 by IS
Dec 1-7
22/15
21/8
11
Dec 8-14
22
15
22
Dec 15-21
23/21
23/16
17
Dec 22-28
30/28
24/18
37
Dec 29-31
15/14
225/220
4
DEC
112/
100 by IS
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
91 by IS
Jan 1-7
32/31
17/10
24
Jan 8-14
32/30
97/94
53
Jan 15-21
22/18
17/11
16/14
Jan 22-28
27/22
36/17
31
Jan 29-31
12
7
6
JAN
125/
114 by IS
174/
139 by IS
(108 Violent Deaths)
130/
128 by IS
Feb 1-7
29/28
76
30
Feb 8-14
24
26
18
Feb 15-21
40
112
12
Feb 22-28
25
36
70
FEB
118/
117 by IS
250 by IS
(115 Violent Deaths)
130 by IS
Mar 1-7
13
22
45
Mar 8-14
19/18
75/10
37
Mar 15-21
12/11
66/37
21/11
Mar 22-28
13/12
8/5
1
Mar 29-31
6
8
7
MAR
63/
61 by IS
179/
147 by IS
(54 Violent Deaths by IS)
111/
101 by IS

Violence By Province March 2019
Province
Violence
Anbar
5 Incidents
8 Killed
8 Civilians
5 Wounded
5 Civilians

2 Shootings
1 IED
1 Rockets
Babil
1 Incident
2 Killed
2 Hashd

1 IED
Baghdad
4 Incidents
5 Killed
2 Civilians
3 ISF
5 Wounded
5 ISF

3 Shootings
1 IED
1 Rockets
Diyala
17 Incidents
8 Killed
4 Civilians
4 ISF
18 Wounded
3 Hashd
5 ISF
10 Civilians

7 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Rocket
1 Mortar
5 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk
15 Incidents
7 Killed
2 Civilians
2 ISF
3 Hashd
6 Wounded
1 Hashd
2 Civilians
3 ISF

5 Shootings
11 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Grenade
Kurdistan
2 Incidents
32 Killed
9 PKK
32 Turkish Soldiers
10 Wounded
10 Turkish Soldiers

1 Shooting
1 Turkish Air Strike
Ninewa
11 Incidents
109 Killed
2 ISF
6 Hashd
101 Civilians
53 Wounded
3 Civilians
10 ISF
40 Hashd

6 Shootings
1 IED
1 Car Bomb
5 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin
8 Incidents
8 Killed
1 Civilian
3 ISF
4 Hashd
14 Wounded
2 ISF
3 Civilians
9 Hashd

3 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Sticky Bombs

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