Since 2003 insurgent violence has almost always declined in Iraq during the winter. This year is no different as Islamic State attacks have gone down for three straight months. On the other hand, pro-Iran groups are increasing their operations against U.S. targets once again as December is the deadline for American combat troops to leave the country and these factions want to show that they are still opposed to their presence.
There were a total of 67 incidents reported in the media in November. That was down from 72 in October, 81 in September and 133 in August.
Those led to 27 deaths and 59 wounded. 6 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 6 Peshmerga, 7 civilians, and 8 Hashd al-Shaabi were killed while 7 Peshmerga, 9 Hashd, 20 ISF and 23 civilians were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 27. Three other provinces were in double digits with Kirkuk at 12, Sulaymaniya with 13 and Salahaddin with 17.
There were 12 incidents by pro-Iran groups. An IED and rockets were dismantled and destroyed in Babil and Ninewa respectively. Missiles were launched at two Turkish military bases in Ninewa, and seven convoys working with the U.S. were hit by IEDs in Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya three times and Muthanna. The biggest incident however was when one of these factions launched a drone strike upon Prime Minister Kazemi’s home in Baghdad wounding him and five of his bodyguards. This happened after an Asaib Ahl Al-Haq brigade commander was killed as part of a mob trying to storm the Green Zone.
The Islamic State was responsible for 55 incidents during the month. Those were in Anbar (3), Babil (3), Baghdad (1), Diyala (18), Kirkuk (8), Ninewa (8), Salahaddin (9), and Sulaymaniya (5).
Anbar and Babil remained sideshows for the insurgency. Almost all the incidents were IEDs and shootings along with three people being kidnapped in the Rutba district of Anbar likely for ransom to raise money. Anbar is used to bring in men and supplies from Syria while Babil is simply a target of opportunity.
Ninewa is usually in that same boat but there was a change in November. Yes there were several IEDs but IS also carried out two attacks upon the Hashd in Hatra in the southern part of the province. The group is either trying to move into the area and assert de facto control or wants the Hashd to stay out.
Attacks in Kirkuk and Salahaddin are constantly fluctuating. The two biggest incidents in the former were when an army base was hit with mortars and another confrontation that also involved mortar fire. In Salahaddin there was a large gun battle with the security forces that involved the Iraqi Air Force bombing the area. The Islamic State has major bases in both governorates but is more interested in rebuilding and protecting its leadership rather than using its resources to carry out attacks.
Diyala had the most attacks as usual. Previously IS was hitting the northwest area along the border with Salahaddin but that appears to be over. During November most attacks were in Muqdadiya and Khanaqin in the center and northeast which are where the group has de facto control. These incidents are meant to keep civilians and the security forces out of the areas where IS has bases and is trying to recover.
Despite the insurgency being at its lowest level since 2003 there are signs that IS is attempting to expand. In September the group was attacking southern Irbil. In November it was hitting Sulaymaniya. It carried out three attacks upon the peshmerga there. The goal appears to be testing security to see if the group can expand into new provinces.
Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Nov 1-7 |
Nov 8-14 |
Nov 15-21 |
Nov 22-28 |
Nov 29-30 |
Totals |
|
Anbar |
1 |
1 |
1 |
- |
- |
3 |
|
Babil |
2 |
- |
2/1 Pro-Iran |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
5/2 Pro-Iran |
|
Baghdad |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
2/1 Pro-Iran |
|
Basra |
- |
- |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
|
Dhi Qar |
- |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
|
Diwaniya |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
2 Pro-Iran |
- |
3 Pro-Iran |
|
Diyala |
6 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
- |
18 |
|
Kirkuk |
4 |
3 |
1 |
- |
- |
8 |
|
Muthanna |
- |
- |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
|
Ninewa |
3/1 Pro-Iran |
3 |
3/2 Pro-Iran |
2 |
- |
11/3 Pro-Iran |
|
Salahaddin |
1 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
|
Sulaymaniya |
2 |
- |
- |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
TOTAL |
20/2 Pro-Iran |
15/1 Pro-Iran |
14/4 Pro-Iran |
15/4 Pro-Iran |
3/1 Pro-Iran |
67/12 Pro-Iran |
Casualties In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Nov 1-7 |
Nov 8-14 |
Nov 15-21 |
Nov 22-28 |
Nov 29-30 |
Totals |
|
Anbar |
4 (4W) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
4 (4W) |
|
Babil |
1 (1K) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 (1K) |
|
Baghdad |
6 (6W) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
6 (6W) |
|
Diyala |
7 (1K, 6W) |
3 (1K, 2W) |
5 (2K, 3W) |
12 (4K, 8W) |
- |
27 (8K, 19W) |
|
Kirkuk |
- |
12 (3K, 9W) |
- |
- |
- |
12 (3K, 9W) |
|
Ninewa |
2 (2W) |
1 (1K) |
1 (1W) |
2 (2W) |
- |
6 (1K, 5W) |
|
Salahaddin |
3 (1K, 2W) |
13 (6K, 7W) |
- |
1 (1K) |
- |
17 (8K, 9W) |
|
Sulaymaniya |
- |
- |
- |
9 (5K, 4W) |
4 (1K, 3W) |
13 (6K, 7W) |
|
TOTAL |
23 (3K, 20W) |
29 (11K, 18W) |
6 (2K, 4W) |
24 (10K, 14W) |
4 (1K, 3W) |
86 (27K, 59W) |
|
|
September Totals – 11 |
|
10/13/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra |
|
10/19/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar |
|
10/21/21 |
3 IEDs dismantled – Babil |
|
10/22/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar |
|
10/28/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad |
|
10/31/21 |
Rockets – Landed in Mansour, Baghdad |
|
|
October Totals – 5 (1) |
|
11/7/21 |
Drone Strike – PM Kazemi’s residence – 6 Wounded |
|
|
Rockets – Turkish military base, Bashiqa, Ninewa |
|
11/9/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Diwaniya |
|
11/16/21 |
IED dismantled – Babil |
|
|
Rockets – Turkish military base, Bavian, Ninewa |
|
11/19/21 |
Rockets dismantled Ninewa |
|
|
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar |
|
11/22/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya |
|
11/25/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Basra |
|
11/28/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya, Muthanna |
|
11/30/21 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil |
|
|
November Totals – 10 (2) – 6 Wounded |
Security In Iraq 2021
|
Week |
Security Incidents (Total/By IS) |
Dead (Total/By IS) |
Wounded (Total/By IS) |
|
Jan 1-7 |
21/2 |
13 |
19 |
|
Jan 8-14 |
17/3 |
12 |
6 |
|
Jan 15-21 |
20/3 |
52 |
133 |
|
Jan 22-28 |
10/3 |
13 |
12 |
|
Jan 29-31 |
9/1 |
2 |
6 |
|
JAN |
77/13 |
92 |
176 |
|
Feb 1-7 |
19/2 |
11 |
23 |
|
Feb 8-14 |
11/3 |
4 |
8 |
|
Feb 15-21 |
20/7 |
11 |
23 |
|
Feb 22-28 |
13/4 |
13 |
23 |
|
FEB |
63/16 |
39 |
77 |
|
Mar 1-7 |
19/5 |
5 |
8 |
|
Mar 8-14 |
12/2 |
13 |
15 |
|
Mar 15-21 |
24/6 |
8 |
7 |
|
Mar 22-28 |
14/2 |
8 |
13 |
|
Mar 29-31 |
9/5 |
2 |
1 |
|
MAR |
79/20 |
39 |
44 |
|
Apr 1-7 |
16/10 |
3 |
5 |
|
Apr 8-14 |
15/6 |
6 |
18 |
|
Apr 15-21 |
32/4 |
19 |
44 |
|
Apr 22-28 |
31/6 |
15 |
42 |
|
Apr 29-30 |
12/1 |
11 |
23 |
|
APR |
107/27 |
54 |
132 |
|
May 1-7 |
36/8 |
33 |
37 |
|
May 8-14 |
31/5 |
14 |
25 |
|
May 15-21 |
15/2 |
3 |
3 |
|
May 22-28 |
20/9 |
3 |
24 |
|
May 29-31 |
11 |
6 |
11 |
|
MAY |
113/24 |
59 |
100 |
|
Jun 1-7 |
12/5 |
6 |
29 |
|
Jun 8-14 |
22/10 |
7 |
7 |
|
Jun 15-21 |
24/4 |
14 |
14 |
|
Jun 22-28 |
19/2 |
10 |
17 |
|
Jun 29-30 |
5 |
- |
21 |
|
JUN |
83/21 |
36 |
87 |
|
Jul 1-7 |
38/9 |
11 |
35 |
|
Jul 8-14 |
25/4 |
7 |
17 |
|
Jul 15-21 |
20/1 |
48 |
75 |
|
Jul 22-28 |
10/1 |
10 |
7 |
|
Jul 29-31 |
16/5 |
30 |
30 |
|
JUL |
110/20 |
106 |
164 |
|
Aug 1-7 |
44/5 |
12 |
19 |
|
Aug 8-14 |
31/6 |
17 |
23 |
|
Aug 15-21 |
25/8 |
12 |
18 |
|
Aug 22-28 |
21/9 |
8 |
10 |
|
Aug 29-31 |
12/2 |
5 |
12 |
|
AUG |
133/30 |
54 |
82 |
|
Sep 1-7 |
21/3 |
12 |
24 |
|
Sep 8-14 |
28/3 |
24 |
36 |
|
Sep 15-21 |
13/1 |
5 |
17 |
|
Sep 22-28 |
17/4 |
13 |
9 |
|
Sep 29-30 |
2 |
- |
- |
|
SEP |
81/11 |
54 |
86 |
|
Oct 1-7 |
17 |
11 |
22 |
|
Oct 8-14 |
14/1 |
4 |
13 |
|
Oct 15-21 |
9/2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Oct 22-28 |
21/1/1 |
36 |
42 |
|
Oct 29-31 |
11/1 |
7 |
7 |
|
OCT |
72/6/1 |
61 |
86 |
|
Nov 1-7 |
20/2 |
3 |
20 |
|
Nov 8-14 |
15/1 |
11 |
18 |
|
Nov 15-21 |
14/4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Nov 22-28 |
15/4 |
10 |
14 |
|
Nov 29-30 |
3/1 |
1 |
3 |
|
NOV |
67/12 |
27 |
59 |
Violence By Province Nov, 2021
|
Province |
Violence |
2018 Avg |
2019 Avg |
2020 Avg |
2021 Avg |
|
Anbar |
3 Incidents 4 Wounded 4 ISF
1 Shooting 1 IED |
12.6 incidents/ month |
8.6 incidents/ month |
7.0 incidents/ month |
5.3 incidents/ month |
|
Babil |
5/2 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd
1 Shooting 6 IEDs |
4.0 incidents/month |
3.0 incidents/month |
2.75 incidents/month |
2.6 incidents/month |
|
Baghdad |
2/1 Pro-Iran Incidents 6 Wounded 6 Civilians
1 Drones |
33.0 incidents/month |
11.6 incidents/month |
7.3 incidents/month |
6.7 incidents/ month |
|
Basra |
1 Pro-Iran Incident
1 IED |
|
|
|
|
|
Dhi Qar |
1 Pro-Iran Incident
1 IED |
|
|
|
|
|
Diwaniya |
3 Pro-Iran Incident
3 IEDs |
|
|
|
|
|
Diyala |
18 Incidents 8 Killed 2 Civilians 2 Hashd 4 ISF 19 Wounded 2 Hashd 5 Civilians 12 ISF
13 Shootings 3 IEDs 2 Mortars |
34.5 incidents/month |
30.0 incidents/month |
30.6 incidents/month |
22.9 incidents/month |
|
Kirkuk |
8 Incidents 3 Killed 1 ISF 2 Hashd 9 Wounded 4 ISF 5 Hashd
2 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Mortar 2 Suicide Bombers Killed |
36.5 incidents/month |
18.6 incidents/month |
13.9 incidents/month |
12.3 incidents/month |
|
Muthanna |
1 Pro-Iran Incident
1 IED |
|
|
|
|
|
Ninewa |
11/3 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Civilian 5 Wounded 5 Civilians
4 Shootings 5 IEDs 3 Rockets |
20.0 incidents/month |
14.0 incidents/month |
10.6 incidents/month |
8.7 incidents/month |
|
Salahaddin |
9 Incidents 8 Killed 1 ISF 3 Hashd 4 Civilians 9 Wounded 2 Hashd 7 Civilians
7 Shootings 1 IED |
21.7 incidents/month |
10.6 incidents/month |
11.2 incidents/month |
12.3 incidents/month |
|
Sulaymaniya |
5 Incidents 6 Killed 6 Peshmerga 7 Wounded 7 Peshmerga
4 Shootings 1 IED |
|
|
|
|
SOURCES
Bas News, "Bomb Blast Hits Convoy Carrying Coalition Logistic Supplies in South of Iraq," 11/22/21
- Rockets Fired at Turkish Base near Mosul," 11/7/21
Mahmoud, Sinan, “Iraqi PM Al Kadhimi escapes drone assassination attempt in Baghdad,” The National, 11/7/21
NINA, "Federal Police and Popular Mobilization Forces Repel An ISIS Attack South of Kirkuk," 11/4/21
- "ISIS Kidnaps 3 Shepherds In Al-Rutba, Anbar," 11/20/21
- "A logistical convoy of the Iraqi forces was exposed to an explosive device explosion in Diwaniyah," 11/28/21
- "The Popular Mobilization Forces repel an ISIS attack in Nineveh," 11/17/21
NRT, "Three Rockets Fired At Turkish Base In Nineveh: Local Official," 11/16/21
Shafaq News, "A bombing targets the logistics support of the coalition in the far south of Iraq," 11/25/21
- "An explosion targeting the international coalition in southern Iraq," 11/19/21
Shafaq News, -9/21
- "An explosion targets an Iraqi convoy carrying equipment for the International Coalition in Al-Muthanna," 11/28/21
- "An explosion targets logistical support for the International Coalition in Babil," 11/30/21
- "Kirkuk .. A mortar attack on the headquarters of the Iraqi army," 11/5/21
- "With the intervention of warplanes .. Amerli clashes ended with 7 casualties and injures," 11/10/21
Sotaliraq, "Ninewa: The missile launchers were aimed at the camp of the Turkish forces, and we do not want useless proxy wars," 11/19/21
Al Sumaria, "Dismantling an explosive device prepared to target the logistical support in Babil - Urgent," 11/16/21
- "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi announces the repulsion of ISIS attack south of Mosul," 11/13/21
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