GUARDIAN VIDEO: Iraq's Data Challenge

Iraq’s Census Put Off Again For Fourth Time

At the end of October 2010 Iraq’s Planning Minister Ali Baban suggested postponing the national census. He got his way when the outgoing cabinet met on November 30 and voted for another delay, the fourth one since 2007.

There were several arguments over the census that led to the cabinet’s decision. First, Minister Baban said that the survey should not be held until a new government was formed. Second, Governor Atheel Nujafi in Ninewa refused to allow workers to be trained in his province to conduct the survey until the Kurdish peshmerga withdrew. Third, the central government and Kurdistan couldn’t agree upon who was to conduct the census in the disputed territories, which are in Ninewa, Tamim, and Diyala governorates. Last, Arabs and Turkmen in Kirkuk were worried that the poll would find a Kurdish majority there, which would push forward the Kurds’ wish to annex the area.

For the last twenty years Iraq has had problems with its census. 1987 was the last time one was held. The 1997 census did not include the three Kurdish provinces. The next one was planned for 2007, but was held off because of security concerns. In 2008 the Planning Ministry tried again, but worries about the disputed territories derailed those plans. 2009 was the third try, but those same areas got in the way. October 2010 was the next date set, but Ninewa and Tamim were problems once more. That was pushed back to December 5 until the latest decision by the cabinet. No new time has been announced for conducting the survey.

Whenever the census is conducting, it will have wide ranging affects upon the country. It will be a step forward in the constitutionally authorized process to determine the future of the disputed territories. Population also determines provincial budgets. The problem as ever is Iraq’s fractious politicians who always like to delay and neglect major decisions if they can. Since there is no likely resolution to the problems in the disputed areas anytime soon, there will always be convenient reasons to hold off the census indefinitely. At the same time, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki may be forced into a decision to appease the Kurds who have demanded the census be conducted as part of its deal to support him for a second term in office. The cabinet is supposed to meet again this month to further discuss the issue.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Hevidar, “Only al-Iraqiya against population census, says Kurdish official,” AK News, 11/21/10

Associated Press, “Iraq delays nationwide census yet again,” 11/30/10

DPA, “Iraqi Minister: Census should be delayed until government in place,” 10/27/10

Gwertzman, Bernard, "Iraq's Impasse and 'Confusing' Politics," Council on Foreign Relations, 10/6/10

Iraq’s Planning Minister Suggests Delaying National Census A Fourth Time

Iraq’s Planning Minister Ali Baban is worried about the possible effects of the national census if it is ever carried out. In his latest statement he suggested that the survey be delayed until a new government is formed. Baban told the state-run Al-Sabah newspaper that the political instability in the country caused by the lack of a government seven months after elections was a good reason to push back the census a fourth time.

Earlier in the month Baban raised more controversy when he brought up the idea of dropping a question about ethnosectarian identity from the census. He cited the protests in Ninewa and Tamim over the possible affects of the census upon the disputed territories as the cause. In both provinces Arabs and Turkmen are wary of Kurdish aspirations to annex areas such as Kirkuk. If the national survey shows a Kurdish majority in any of the disputed areas that would be the first step to Kurdistan officially joining them to their region. The Kurds reacted angrily to Baban’s suggestion, and threatened a boycott if the question was not in the census.

The census has already been delayed three times. It was originally scheduled for 2007, but the sectarian civil war shelved that idea. Baghdad tried again in 2008, but concerns about the disputed territories pushed it back to 2010. It was supposed to happen on October 24 this year, but Ninewa’s refusal to conduct the poll because of the presence of peshmerga within the governorate, and questions about the future of Kirkuk delayed it again. It is now due to be held on December 5 unless Planning Minister Baban, and the Arabs and Kurds in Ninewa and Tamim have their way.

SOURCES

DPA, “Iraqi Minister: Census should be delayed until government in place,” 10/27/10

Latest Controversy Over The Iraqi Census

On October 18, 2010 Iraq’s Planning Minister Ali Baban said that he wanted to remove a question about respondents’ ethnosectarian identity from the census. Baban suggested that the item should be dropped to relieve tension in the country, and because Ninewa requested it. Baban aired the idea at a meeting of the Iraqi cabinet. Kurdish ministers and members of the Kurdish Coalition in the new parliament strongly objected to the idea. A member of the Census Committee in Kurdistan said that removing the identity question was a violation of the Iraqi constitution, and the Kurdish Coalition threatened a boycott if the item was not included. 

This is just the latest controversy over the planned census. Originally it was supposed to be conducted in 2007, but because of the lack of security it was postponed until 2009. Complaints about how the poll might affect the disputed territories led it to be delayed until 2010. It was supposed to happen on October 24 this year, but was just pushed back again to December 5 because Ninewa refused to conduct it as long as Kurdish peshmerga were present in the province, and over concerns over Kirkuk. Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement has also been lobbying to hold off the census as well. Some of its strongest support in the March 2010 election came from Ninewa, Diyala, and Tamim, which is where the disputed territories lay. Arabs and Turkmen in those areas are worried that the census may reveal a Kurdish majority in the disputed areas like Kirkuk, which would allow them to move ahead with annexing them under Article 140 of the constitution. Arabs, Turkmen, and members of the National Movement would like to maintain the status quo at minimum, and reverse Kurdish advances in the territories if possible. These political disputes have held up the implementation of the census for the last two years, and may do it again.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Hevidar, “Minister threatens to resign due to nationality in census forms,” AK News, 10/20/10

Al-Jader, May, “Debating on the census in Iraq,” AK News, 10/20/10

Al Wanan, Jaafar, “Census delay in Iraq costs billions,” AK News, 10/18/10

Iraq’s Census Delayed For A Third Time

On October 3, 2010 it was announced that Iraq’s long-awaited census would be delayed for a third time. The national poll was scheduled for October 24, but the cabinet decided that it would now occur on December 5. The main reason was the arguments over the disputed territories. In Ninewa for example, Iraq’s second largest province, the governor said that he would not conduct the census as long as Kurdish peshmerga were present there. As a result, the governorate has refused to train census workers. According to the Environment Minister who was at the cabinet meeting that made the decision, there were concerns about Kirkuk as well. The Kurds are also demanding that Yazidis, Shabaks and Fayli Kurds all be labeled as Kurds rather than be given their own classifications. That would greatly increase the Kurdish population in northern Iraq, and the disputed areas, and incur the wrath of Arabs and Turkmen there who oppose the Kurds’ aspirations to annex those regions.

The last census happened in 1997, but it did not include the three Kurdish provinces, which were not under control of Saddam Hussein at the time. 1987 was the last time a full census occurred. This year’s poll was actually supposed to happen in 2007, but was delayed because of security concerns. Then in 2009 Baghdad tried to make it happen again, but the future of the disputed territories got in the way then as now.

The census is important for the country for a number of reasons. Article 140 of the constitution calls for a census in the disputed areas as a first step to determine what will happen to them. Populations also determine how much money each province gets in the budget. With the security situation greatly improved in Iraq, it seemed like the right time to hold the national poll, but politics as ever has gotten in the way. Iraq’s politicians are not willing to compromise over the disputed territories, and that’s now the main barrier to the census being completed. Whether they will be any more ready in December than now is highly unlikely, especially if a new government has still not been formed. That could lead to a fourth delay.

SOURCE

Agence France Presse, “Iraq postpones nationwide census: minister,” 10/3/10

Baziyan, Hawar, “Kurdish committee worried about halting census training,” AK News, 10/3/10

Kami, Aseel, “Iraq delays first census since 1987 over land row,” Reuters, 10/3/10

Ninewa Unwilling To Hold Census As Long As Kurdish Peshmerga Are Present

Source: U.S. Embassy, Baghdad

Ninewa’s governor Atheel Nujafi told the press that he would block the national census as long as there were Kurdish peshmerga present in his province. Iraq’s Planning Ministry intends on conducting the census on October 24, 2010, and Ninewa is the only governorate that has not prepared for it. Since Nujafi was elected in the January 2009 provincial elections, he and his Al-Hadbaa Party have been calling for all Kurdish forces to withdraw, and be replaced by the Iraqi Army and police. Al-Hadbaa is opposed to Kurdish desires to annex the disputed territories in the province, and believe that the peshmerga are in Ninewa to achieve that goal. Not only that, but after al-Hadbaa took all the positions in the governorate’s council after the 2009 elections, the Kurdish Fraternal List has been boycotting the provincial government, and the peshmerga even refused to allow al-Hadbaa officials from visiting areas under their control. In mid-2010 the United Nations and Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement began mediating between the parties. The two sides have agreed upon a number of issues such as the budget and distributing government positions, but not security.

If the census were not conducted in Ninewa, the second largest governorate in the country, it would be a major setback. The last time Iraq held a census was in 1997, but it did not include the three provinces in Kurdistan that were not under the administration of Saddam Hussein’s government. They were included in the 1987 census. This year’s census has already been postponed twice before. It was originally planned for 2007, but was cancelled because of the lack of security. The Planning Ministry tried two years later, but political parties were afraid of political manipulation in the disputed territories in Ninewa, Tamim, and Diyala. It’s those same types of objections al-Hadbaa is currently voicing and may hold up this year’s attempt.

SOURCES

Karim, Karzan, “Nineveh governor says no census in his province,” AK News, 9/21/10

Khallat, Khudr, “Kurdish delegation go to Baghdad to discuss census,” AK News, 9/21/10

Iraqi National Census Returns

In the summer of 2009 Iraq announced that it would have its first national census since 1987. The date was set for October 24, 2009, but the government was afraid that it would cause tensions in provinces like Tamim and Ninewa where there are disputed territories. In those areas, the make up of the population is a major point of contention. Whoever has the largest numbers has an immediate advantage in its claims for control. This led to a delay in the poll.

Now, in the beginning of October Iraq has announced that it is officially restarting the census. The government has one year to complete the task, and it is starting right where the controversy began, Ninewa and Tamim, as well as the three Kurdish provinces of Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya. The main difference between the first census date, and the new one is that it will now finish after the January 2010 parliamentary election. Iraqi politicians worried that the census would cause trouble in the run-up to the vote, and now don’t have to worry about that for the short term. When the results are announced however that could be another story.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq prepares for census,” 10/5/09

Reuters, “Citing Tensions, Iraq Abandons Census Plans,” 8/16/09

National Census Cancelled

As reported before, Iraq was set for a national census on October 24, 2009, the first since 1987. That has now been indefinitely postponed because of fears that it will create more tensions in Tamim and Ninewa provinces. The Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology said they proposed holding the census after the January 2010 parliamentary elections in either April or October. It is now up to the cabinet to decide whether the country will go ahead with the census or not. The survey was especially important for Tamim, the home of Kirkuk since it has had no provincial elections, partly over disputes over the voter rolls. Article 140 of the constitution also called for a census before a referendum could be held on the future of Kirkuk.

SOURCES

Reuters, “Citing Tensions, Iraq Abandons Census Plans,” 8/16/09

The New Dispute In Kirkuk – The National Census

On October 24, 2009 Iraq is set to conduct a national census. This will be the first one held since the overthrow of Saddam. Its results will have the largest effect upon the disputed area of Kirkuk in Tamim province. Article 140 of the constitution called for a census in Tamim before a referendum on the future of Kirkuk could be conducted no later than December 31, 2007. Neither happened. The Kurds want the census to occur because they are the majority in the province, and it would create facts on the ground to support their claim to the area. Arabs and Kurds in Tamim are therefore opposed to it. They claim that the Kurdish parties moved in thousands of their followers into the province after the U.S. invasion, sometimes by force, thus gerrymandering the demographics in their favor. The Kurds dispute this, claiming that the returns were simply people who were forcibly displaced by Saddam’s Arabization policy. Neither side appears willing to compromise.

The government survey will also be of importance because it will determine the voting rolls for the province. Tamim has still not had provincial elections, which were held in January 2009, and unless the census happens there, may not participate in the January 2010 parliamentary elections either.

As usual, Iraq’s political leaders are unable to deal with this dilemma. Some Turkmen political parties say they want Baghdad to delay the census until it can figure out how many Kurds moved to Tamim after 2003. They have threatened a boycott of the census if this doesn’t happen, and the Arabs may join them. In parliament, one proposal is to simply drop Tamim from the national census. Another is to push ahead with a referendum and parliamentary elections in Kirkuk without one. A major sticking point is that the presidential committee, which includes Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, will veto any law devised by parliament unfavorable to the Kurds. The most likely scenario then, is that parliament will do nothing, and Tamim will be excluded from the census, and participation in voting again.

SOURCES

Gibbs, Nancy, “Unfinished Business,” Time, 4/28/03

International Crisis Group, “Iraq and the Kurds: Trouble Along the Trigger Line,” 7/8/09

Iraqi Constitution

Nordland, Rod, “Now It’s A Census That Could Rip Iraq Apart,” New York Times, 7/26/09

Williams, Timothy, “Turkmens in Contested Oil-Rich Province Vow to Boycott Iraq’s National Census,” New York Times, 7/24/09