Iraq’s Drought

Iraqi sheep farmer in Kurdistan. Farmers have been forced to sell such livestock because of lack of feed and water for their heards

After oil, Iraq’s other major business is farming. It is the country’s largest employer, accounting for between 25-40% of the workforce. Unfortunately, the country is in the middle of one of the worst droughts in years. The lack of water has destroyed much of Iraq’s crops this year, and will force it to increase food imports just as prices for those products are skyrocketing, and inflation is going up. This will be another test for the government, to see whether it can actually serve its people or not.

Farming has been a traditional business for thousands of years in Iraq. The U.S. has hoped that agriculture could provide jobs, a steady income for the rural sections of the country, and stability, but since the U.S. invasion agriculture has been stagnant. In 2006 for example, production dropped. One major cause was that under the Coalition Provisional Authority Law no. 80, farm subsidies were ended. This was an attempt to cut government intervention in the economy, and move Iraq more towards a free market, capitalist system. This put many farmers out of business, and led to hundreds leaving their villages for the cities looking for work.

Since the beginning of 2008 farming is again on the decline because of the drought. This was caused by a 30% drop in rain during the winter. In some regions, during the planting season of October to December 2007, they got little to no rain. Iraq has also blamed neighboring countries such as Turkey, Syria, and Iran, which have dams that control rivers that flow into Iraq of hoarding water, but they too are suffering from the drought. As a result, the U.S. believes that that wheat and barley will be down by 51% compared to last year. The northern provinces of Tamim, Ninewa, and Irbil have been hit the hardest. There the U.S. estimates that production will be down 80%. Iraq’s Planning Ministry said that it expects the country to grow 590,000 tons of wheat and 483,000 tons of barley, when it needs 4 million tons of the former and 2 million tons of the latter. The lack of barley means that farmers don’t have enough feed for their animals, which has caused a huge sell off of livestock as well.

The Iraqi government is being looked upon to solve this problem, but it may not be up to the task. Baghdad will have to import hundreds of thousands of tons of grain to meet Iraq’s needs. Food prices are at a record high level right now, so importing foreign agricultural products will push up prices. Already, in May 2008 the cost of food was up almost 14%, and was the largest cause of a spike in inflation in the country from 11% at the beginning of 2008, to 16% in April. In the meantime, the government has tried to provide aid to farmers, help with wells, and cut a deal with Turkey to increase the water flow down the Tigris River. The major problem is that the government has not been able to effectively spend its money in the past, and therefore may not be able to provide enough assistance, and buy the necessary foods stuffs. U.S. officials blame the slow bureaucracy, corruption, and government officials’ reluctance to travel around the country because of security fears as the causes. This could turn into another point of contention between the public that expects the government to provide basic necessities, and institutions that have failed to do that in the past. As violence is down to the lowest levels in years, Prime Minister Maliki’s ability to govern is coming more into focus, and is one of the most pressing issues to ensure that the security gains made can last.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Agriculture production decreases in Iraq,” 1/22/08

Buzbee, Sally, “Drought threatens Iraq’s crops and water supply,” Associated Press, 7/10/08

Burns, Robert, “The story of Mosul: Few jobs, lots of trouble,” Associated Press, 7/9/08

Davis, Eric, “Rebuilding a Non-Sectarianism in Iraq,” Strategic Insights, December 2007

Glanz, James, “In Report to Congress, Oversight Officials Say Iraqi Rebuilding Falls Short of Goals,” New York Times, 10/31/07

Looney, Robert, “Half Full of Half Empty? An Assessment of the Crocker Report on Iraqi Economic Conditions,” Strategic Insights, December 2007

Shatab, Ali, “Iraq to increase grain imports due to drop in local produce,” Azzaman, 5/16/08

Trade Arabia, “Iraq inflation up 16pc on food prices,” 5/26/08

Zavis, Alexandra, “First violence, now drought threatens Iraq farmers,” Los Angeles Times, 6/26/08

Diyala Offensive Planned For August, Iraqi Forces Now Clearing Babil

Iraq plans to launch its next major offensive aimed at Diyala province on August 1. 30,000 Iraqi soldiers and police have massed in the area since in early July. The operation was announced back in June. This will be the fifth offensive launched by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki since the March 2008 Basra operation. Diyala is one of Iraq’s most divided provinces having Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. There are still insurgents active in the region, there are numerous Sons of Iraq units that have clashed with the government, rival Shiite groups the Mahdi Army and Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) have struggled for control of the security forces, and the provincial government is weak. Having announced the offensive so long ago however, could let many of the militants flee the province before the operation even begins, similar to what happened in Mosul earlier this year.

Currently Iraqi forces are carrying out a clearing operation in Babil province called Knight’s Leap. Babil has been a battleground between the SIIC and Sadrists. It is also a base for Iranian backed Special Groups. During the Basr operation in March, Iraqi forces tried to clear the province, but to mixed results.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “30,000 Iraqi troops poised for assault on Qaeda bastion,” 7/23/08

Aswat Aliraq, “Hilla placed under curfew,” 7/23/08

NPR Interview with Ret. Lt. Col. John Nagl

The Iraq War created a deep division within America’s military. When the U.S. went into Iraq it was prepared to fight a conventional war against an opposing military. After Saddam’s forces were defeated however, the U.S. was faced with terrorist attacks by Al Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni insurgency, and Shiite militias. Some U.S. officers recognized the new environment and began pushing for a counterinsurgency campaign. It took years, but the U.S. military eventually turned around their thinking.

A counterinsurgency campaign is completely different from a traditional war. Force is not as important, the population is. The main goal is to separate the population form the insurgents so that they not longer have a base of support.

Retired Lt. Col. John Nagl was one of those early American officers to see the different situation the U.S. faced in Iraq and urged a change in tactics. Nagl served in Iraq from 2003-2004 in Anbar province, and then went on to train U.S. advisers headed to the Middle East. He also helped edit the military’s counterinsurgency field manual. He was interviewed yesterday, July 22 on National Public Radio’s Fresh Air. He talks about a wide ranging number of issues from whether the military gave an honest evaluation of the difficulties the U.S. would face in Iraq after the invasion, to how he employed counterinsurgency methods during his tour, to what to do with prisoners, etc.

Here’s the link to the interview:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92750254

U.S.-Iraq Negotiations Update

The Associated Press and USA Today covered some important background information to the negotiations for a security and diplomatic deal between Iraq and the U.S. on July 20.

USA Today pointed out that calls for a withdrawal by Iraq are for U.S. combat troops to leave. U.S. advisers that are embedded with most Iraqi battalions and some police units would stay for years afterwards. These advisers would also need their own American support and logistics troops as well. In total, that could be tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines remaining in Iraq.

The Associated Press noted that Iraq is playing politics with its demands for a withdrawal by the U.S. Baghdad believes that President Bush is desperate for an agreement before he leaves office at the beginning of 2009. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s recent comments about supporting Obama are part of this strategy to play Bush off of the Democratic candidate. Maliki was reported to have said, “Let’s squeeze them [the U.S.,]” to one of his advisers. The plan seems to be working. Since July 7 when Maliki made the first announcement for a withdrawal, Bush, who has said he is against any withdrawal timetable, has agreed to “aspirational goals” and a “general time horizon” for U.S. troops to leave Iraq. The U.S. has also gone from calling for two long-term agreements that would allow American forces broad freedom in Iraq, to probably signing a one-year memorandum of understanding that includes limits.

As noted earlier, calls for withdrawal increase Maliki’s nationalist standing in an Iraqi election year. Negotiations between the two sides are continuing and there will probably be more twists and turns before anything is signed.

SOURCES

Dagher, Sam, “U.S. and Iraq near a ‘bridge’ deal on status of U.S. troops,” Christian Science Monitor, 7/14/08

Hunt, Terence, “US, Iraq seek ‘general time horizon’ on troop cuts,” Associated Press, 7/18/08

Levinson, Charles, “Analysis: U.S. advisers could stay long after troops leave Iraq,” USA Today, 7/20/08

Reid, Robert, “Analysis: Iraq playing US politics for best deal,” Associated Press, 7/20/08

Election Law Update IV

Iraq’s parliament finally passed the provincial election law. The vote was 127 out of 140. The Kurdish bloc walked out in protest beforehand. The reason is the bill calls for a vote in Kirkuk on whether the region should share power between the major groups Kurds, Arabs, Turkoman, and other minorities. The Iraqi constitution calls for a census and then vote on whether the area will join the Kurdistan region. These two measures have been delayed several times, to the consternation of the Kurdish bloc.

The future of the law remains cloudy. The vote was held in secret without following parliamentary rules, which happens to be unconstitutional. The law now goes to the Presidential Council for final ratification. Because the Kurds walked out there is a concern that President Jala Talabani, a Kurd as well, will veto the bill in the Council. Deputy speaker of parliament Khalid al-Attiyah told a news conference that it was bad policy to pass the bill when an entire bloc objected to it. He said, “Regrettably after doing this, I do not see any chance for the election to be held in this year if this process continues.” The bill extends the deadline for elections from October 1 to December 31.

The provincial elections are expected to reconfigure the political map in Iraq. The election could allow a whole new group of political parties such as ones based upon the Sons of Iraq and tribes, to challenge the ruling political parties, the Kurds, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the Dawa Party, and the Iraqi Accordance Front. That could also cause problems down the road as the Sunni and Shiite communities are fragmenting rather than coalescing. With the potential for so many parties getting elected, provincial councils could become deadlocked with too many different opinions. Of course, the bill needs to be ratified by the Presidential Council before any of this potential for change can happen.

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraqi parliament passes election law,” 7/22/08

Aswat Aliraq, “Endorsing provincial councils’ law flouts Iraqi constitution rules – expert,” 7/22/08
- “Parliament approves provincial councils elections law,” 7/22/08

Security Crackdown In Anbar? False Alarm

The Iraqi newspaper Azzaman had three articles recently about a security crackdown in Anbar province in western Iraq that proved to be a false alarm. The first article from July 15, reported that a curfew had been imposed on all of the province’s major cities including Ramadi, Fallujah, Haditha, and others. It said the cause was a wave of attacks on tribal leaders that make up parts of the Anbar Awakening movement that is responsible for wrestling control of the area from insurgents and Al Qaeda in Iraq. The second piece from July 17, said troops and police had been sent to Fallujah, and that a major operation might be in the works for the entire province. It said that security forces were worried about a comeback by Al Qaeda.

A cursory review of press reports however, showed no real increase in attacks in the province. Since the beginning of July there have only been approximately twelve attacks in Anbar, including an assassination attempt on the head of the Islamic Party in Fallujah on July 5, and various bombings of local police and Awakening fighters that resulted in 20 civilians, police, Awakening members, and insurgents killed, and 66 wounded. In June there were only about seven attacks that killed 32, including three Marines, and wounded more than 15. Twenty-two of those deaths occurred when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a meeting in Karmah between U.S. Marines, local officials, and tribal leaders of the Awakening movement. The attack happened two days before the U.S. was planning on handing over control of the province to Iraqi authorities. Since then the handover has been delayed. The headquarters of the Islamic Party was also destroyed in a bombing on June 12. Other areas such as Baghdad and Mosul have been much more violent in recent weeks than Anbar, so calls for a major security operation there seemed uncalled for.

On July 20, Azzaman reported that there would be no crackdown because Iraqi forces were busy dealing with operations in southern Iraq.

SOURCES

DPA, “Bomb kills two, wounds 11 in western Iraq,” Eath Times, 7/9/08

Iraq Today blog, “War News for Wednesday, July 09, 2008,” 7/9/08

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 26 June 2008,” 6/26/08

Londono, Ernesto and White, Josh, “Bomb Kills Marines, Iraqi Tribal Leaders,” Washington Post, 6/27/08

al-Mansouri, Omar, “no assault on Falluja, says general,” Azzaman, 7/20/08
- “Violence returns to Anbar following months of relative quiet,” Azzaman, 7/15/08
- “U.S. and Iraqi forces mulling new offensive on Fallujah,” Azzaman, 7/17/08

McClatchy Newspapers, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 21 July 2008,” 7/21/08

The Peninsula, “Roadside bombs kill at least five in Iraqi city,” 7/14/08

Reuters, “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 5,” 7/5/08
- FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 21,” 7/21/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 9,” 7/9/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 4,” 6/4/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 11,” 6/11/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 12,” 6/12/08

Voices of Iraq, “4 cops killed, wounded in Falluja blast,” 7/13/08
- “9 Sahwa fighters wounded in suicide explosion in Rawa,” 7/7/08
- “10 cops killed, wounded in attack in Falluja,” 6/4/08
- “Female suicide attacker wound six near Ramadi,” 6/7/08
- “Gunmen blow up Islamic party’s headquarters in Falluja,” 6/12/08
- “Suicide bomber gunned down before attack,” 7/20/08

Xinhua, “Sunni Arab politician survives bomb attack west of Baghdad,” 7/5/08

Yacoub, Sameer, “US: Arrest made following attack in Karmah, Iraq,” Associated Press, 6/27/08

Youssef, Nanc, “As violence drops, some ponder faster Iraq troop withdrawals,” McClatchy Newspapers, 5/30/08

Elections Update

A member of Iraq’s Election Commission said that Iraq’s vote for provincial councils will be postponed until December 22. Originally the elections were scheduled for October. A delay in the vote has been widely expected. The Commission is carrying on with its preparations for the election, having set up registration centers for voters that have one month to sign up.

The delay will happen whether the parliament votes on the election law next week or not. The main sticking point on the bill is how to deal with Kirkuk. The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance has suggested postponing voting there while allowing the rest of the election law to be passed. This would benefit the Kurds because it would allow them to consolidate power

SOURCES

Garcia-Navarro, Lourdes, “Iraqis Fear Delays of Critical Provincial Elections,” Morning Edition, NPR, 6/27/08

Voices of Iraq, “IHEC opens 563 voter registration update centers – UNAMI,” 7/15/08
- “IHEC puts off provincial elections to year’s end,” 7/20/08
- “UIC proposes postponing Kirkuk elections for 6 months – MP,” 7/15/08