Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Charts On Violence In Iraq 2014 Part II - Dead And Wounded By Group


Chart 4 - Deaths In Iraq By Group 2014

ISF
Sahwa
Peshmerga
Asayesh
Civilians
Totals
Jan
424
69

2
988
1,483
Feb
522
54
2

707
1,285
Mar
566
47

2
991
1,606
Apr
540
45

1
870
1,456
May
493
79
1

889
1,462
Jun
1,478
31
63

2,600
4,173
Jul
470
28
60

1,741
2,299
Aug
290
64
299

2,181
2,834
Sep
548
34
11

1,583
2,176
Oct
343
52
79

1,873
2,347
Nov
308
20
190
3
1,310
1,831
Dec
170
47
190
2 YPG
1,365
1,774
Totals
6,152
570
895
8 + 2 YPG
17,098
24,725

Chart 5 - Wounded In Iraq By Group 2014

ISF
Sahwa
Peshmerga
Asayesh
Civilians
Totals
Jan
649
48


2,183
2,880
Feb
707
93
3

1,728
2,531
Mar
631
55

1
2,202
2,889
Apr
809
53
9
1
2,052
2,924
May
713
48


1,841
2,602
Jun
770
47
198
1
2,685
3,701
Jul
756
24
175

2,364
3,319
Aug
464
20
608

2,531
3,623
Sep
255
20
69

2,703
3,047
Oct
348
46
75 + 1,230

2,682
3,151
+ 1,230
Nov
420
37
472
10
2,096
3,035
Dec
235
85
1,195

1,523
3,038
Totals
6,757
576
4,034
13
26,590
37,970


Charts On Violence In Iraq Part III - Casualties By Government Shelling/Air Strikes & Coalition Air Strikes


Chart 6 - Casualties Government Shelling 2014

Anbar
Babil
Kirkuk
Salahaddin
Jan
85 Killed
446 Wounded



Feb
61 Killed
204 Wounded



Mar
122 Killed
405 Wounded



Apr
140 Killed
359 Wounded



May
220 Killed
420 Wounded



Jun
170 Killed
298 Wounded



Jul
201 Killed
553 Wounded
3 Killed
12 Wounded

15 Killed
20 Wounded
Aug
262 Killed
497 Wounded

6 Killed
9 Wounded
20 Killed
66 Wounded
Sep
194 Killed
397 Wounded


7 Killed
Oct
87 Killed
221 Wounded


48 Killed
18 Wounded
Nov
56 Killed,
162 Wounded



Dec
90 Killed
162 Wounded



Totals
1,688 Killed
4,124 Wounded
3 Killed
12 Wounded
6 Killed
9 Wounded
90 Killed
104 Wounded

Chart 7 - Casualties Government Air Strikes 2014

Anbar
Babil
Diyala
Kirkuk
Ninewa
Salahaddin
Jun



8 Killed
26 Wounded


Jul
15 Killed
37 Wounded
37 Killed
3 Killed
42 Killed
57 Wounded
37 Killed
168 Wounded
69 Killed
80 Wounded
Aug
11 Killed
22 Wounded
2 Killed
6 Wounded
4 Killed

42 Killed
10 Wounded
29 Killed
19 Wounded
Sep
10 Killed
30 Wounded


26 Killed
33 Wounded
25 Killed
16 wounded
39 Killed
33 Wounded
Oct
18 Killed
17 Wounded



12 Killed
2 Killed
Nov
3 Killed
14 Wounded



24 Killed
37 Killed
Dec
10 Killed
4 Wounded





Totals
67 Killed
124 Wounded
39 Killed
6 Wounded
7 Killed
76 Killed
116 Wounded
140 Killed
194 Wounded
176 Killed
132 Wounded

Chart 8 - Casualties Coalition Air Strikes 2014

Anbar
Ninewa
Oct
22 Killed
43 Wounded
17 Killed
13 Wounded
Nov
8 Killed
33 Wounded

Dec
25 Killed
32 Wounded
7 Killed
Totals
55 Killed
108 Wounded
24 Killed
13 Wounded

Monday, January 5, 2015

Inside The Moqtada Al-Sadr – Qais Khazali Split Within Iraq’s Sadr Trend Interview With Al Rai's Elijah Magnier

 
Elijah Magnier is Al Rai’s chief international correspondent. In the early years of the U.S. occupation he spent time with the Sadr movement and gained some important insight into the inner workings of the Trend, including the relationship between Moqtada al-Sadr and Qais Khazali who was one of Sadr’s top lieutenants until the two broke. Here is an interview with Magnier about what happened between the two that led to the formation of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, the League of the Righteous. Magnier can be followed on Twitter @EjmAlrai 

Qais Khazali (left) and Moqtada al-Sadr (right) (Shafaq News)

1. Qais Khazali was once one of Moqtada al-Sadr’s confidants. Can you explain what Khazali’s duties were within the Sadr movement and what their relationship was like in 2003-04?

Sheikh Qais al-Khaz’ali was one of the young students around Sayed Mohamad Sadiq al-Sadr, Moqtada’s father. Moqtada stayed at home arrest when his father was killed by Saddam Hussein until 2003 when the U.S forces entered Iraq.

Moqtada re-openned his father’s “Barrani” (office) at the end of Al-Rassoul Street, opposite the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf to fight the U.S. presence in Iraq as an “occupation force”. The head of his army (Jaish al-Mahdi) was Abu Muhamad Shibl (who became the leader of what we know today as Kataeb Hezbollah) and his vice was Sheikh Akram al-Ka’bi.

During the manifestation that triggered the first clash between the Salvadorian forces and Moqtada al-Sadr’s supporters in Najaf, once he arrived to Al-Kufa mosque, he appointed Sheikh Qais al-Khaz’ali as his spokesman to replace Sheikh Fouad al-Turfi who used to be in charge of Al-Kufa Mosque.

Since, then the name of Sheikh Qais started to pick-up as he was the one meeting with the media. He, along with Sayed Mustafa al-Ya’cubi and Sheikh Haidar al-Mussawi were forming the closest inner circle of Moqtada al-Sadr.

2. The conventional history about Sadr and Khazali was that they had their first break after the Battle of Najaf in 2004. What happened between the two during that time.

This is not accurate. During the battle of Najaf, Sheikh Qais was still one of the closest people to Sayed Moqtada al-Sadr. They hid together inside the Imam Ali shrine during the battle of Najaf until an agreement was forced by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani upon the Prime Minister at that time Ayad Allawi to allow a free passage for Moqtada al-Sadr and his people from Najaf to Baghdad where they went into Al-Sadr City.

The clash between Moqtada al-Sadr [and the Americans] with his enthusiastic followers attracted the attention of Iran.

At that time, Iran was supporting any group, Sunni or Shia, who would stand against the Americans in Iraq and prevent their forces from having an easy stay in Iraq. Moqtada al-Sadr was approached by the Iraqi Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis who was acting as the representative of Brigadier General Qassem Solaimani, the head of the IRGC-Quds brigade, in Iraq.

Abu Mahdi offered, on behalf of Iran, full support to Moqtada al-Sadr. A trip was organized for Sheikh Qais and Sheikh Aqram al-Ka’bi and others to Tehran. Iran offered a connection between Sheikh Qais and Hezbollah and offered to receive a selection of fighters to be trained on weapons handling and IEDs.

Moqtada al-Sadr, in his character, aims to distance himself from commitments. He pushed his first lieutenant Shaikh Qais al-Khaz’ali who volunteered among his three most trusted lieutenants. These were Sayed Mustafa al-Ya’cubi and Sayed Haidar al-Mussawi who alternated each for 15 days, including Sheikh Qais, to protect Moqtada from a possible U.S assassination/capture, changing his place of residence for a few years since 2005 until he left to Iran for a long stay in 2008.

Sheikh Qais was in contact with Imad Mughnniyeh who was in charge of the training of what was called Asaeb ahl Al-Haq (AAH), under the command of Qais and Sheikh Akram al-Qa’by, his vice.

Asaeb Ahl al-Haq initiated attacks in various places in Iraq, mainly in Baghdad and the south, in the Shia area. Hezbollah sent an officer with AAH, Ali Musa Daqduq, who participated in supervising the attack against the U.S. forces inside the Municipality of Karbala, [on the Karbala Provincial Joint Coordination Center].

Moqtada al-Sadr was aware of every single step and move made by the Asaeb. In fact, in the attack in Karbala in January 2007, bullet proof cars belonging to a Sadrist Minister were used so the doors would be opened to these cars when breaking into Karbala municipality without attracting attention by the guards. The Minister complained to Moqtada a week before about “a group of Sadrists who took away his cars”. Moqtada promised to “look into the matter” and asked Sheikh Qais al-Khaz’ali to speed up the return of the stolen cars. Moqtada knew about the attack.

3. 2006 was when Asaib Ahl Al-Haq was created supposedly as a final sign that Khazali had broken with Sadr. You dispute that history. What really happened?

When Sheikh Qais was arrested by the British forces in March 2007 along with Hezbollah’s Daqduq (who played deaf and dumb for over a month in his first time of captivity), Moqtada felt afraid of what Sheikh Qais might say during his interrogation. This was when he was advised by Iran to leave the country for fear of assassination or arrest by the Americans.

By that time, Iran helped AAH to buy institutions, flats, gasoline stations, and more to secure cover and income for the organization. Sheikh Qais and Sheikh Aqram were responsible for that part.

In 2008, Moqtada sent his aid-de-champ Sheikh Ali Smeism to Sheikh Aqram, to make sure all the assets belonging to the Sadrists were under one umbrella: his.

There were many meetings with Sheikh Aqram, who took charge of AAH  (he is believed to be responsible for kidnapping 4 Britons in May 2007 to exchange them for Qai, Daqduq and others) during his commander Sheikh Qais’ arrest. Sheikh Aqram refused to deliver anything, encouraged by Iran to keep independent.

In fact, Moqtada al--Sadr never enjoyed an “obedient” relationship with Iran despite his stay for 3 years and more in Tehran. He has accused Iran of being behind a continuous attempt to split his group and of encouraging other Sadrists to join Iran directly. Moqtada knew he had the largest group of supporters in Iraq that he inherited from his late father and that his followers were attracting every single politician in Iraq, including Iran.

Sheikh Aqram said clearly: “The name of Sadr doesn’t belong to Moqtada. We are all followers of Sayed Mohamad Sadeq al-Sadr.”

Moqtada knew his battle with sheikh Aqram was lost. That was the split with AAH and Moqtada al-Sadr.

4. After 2008 there was a constant back and forth between Sadr and AAH with Sadr trying to reconcile with and then attacking them, and then occasional fighting. What was going on during that period and was Iran still playing a role with the two groups?

Moqtada sent his new Jaish al-Mahdi all around the country to impose on all small groups to follow him. His Jaish al-Mahdi clashed with AAH and killed even a few under interrogation. Some of his close aids and relatives were also killed by in fighting.

Moqtada issued a series of letters condemning openly those who split from the Sadrists. It was too late.

AAH was well organized and Iran was behind it and backing it. Iran also offered political support asking Sheikh Qais to join the political arena by putting himself and his group, when released, with Dawlat al-Qanun to enjoy the protection of the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Iran wanted AAH independent from Moqtada because Soleimani considered the Sadrist leader as “unpredictable” by all means.

The last point: Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes is not the leader of Kataeb Hizbollah in Iraq. The leader is Abu Muhamad Shibl, the same one who led Jaish al-Mahdi in 2004 in the battle of Najaf against the U.S forces. The same Shibl who was arrested by the Americans along with Ali al-Lami, the head of the deBaathification committee (a man of Dr. Ahmad al-Chalabi) who was killed after his release. Shibl was rejected by Moqtada but was accepted by Iran. His dedication made him head of a group fighting in Iraq against IS but very loyal to Iran. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is an MP and a representative of IRGC in Iraq not a leader of one single group as normally confused by media.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Musings On Iraq In The News


I was interviewed by Bob Tollast for Global Politics about current issues in Iraq. Michael Rubin mentioned my "24 Voices On The Unity of Iraq" piece, which he participated in his article "Is Iraq Doomed to Split Apart?" for Commentary Magazine.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Khorasani Brigade Another Iraq Militia That Returned Home From Syria To Fight The Insurgency


There are now a plethora of militias operating in Iraq. Some have been around a long time like the Badr Organization that was formed in the 1980s, while others are relatively new. One of the latter is the Khorasani Brigade, which first came out into the public eye at the end of 2013. It was one of many pro-Iranian Iraqi militias deployed to fight the rebels in Syria. It has now moved to Iraq where it has taken part in some of the most recent security operations. Two of those were in Tuz Kharmato in Salahaddin and Jalawla in Diyala. Now the brigade is involved in a dispute between Shiite armed groups and Kurds over control of those two areas, pointing to a much larger power struggle brewing in Iraq’s disputed territories.

Khorasani Brigade’s Official Press Outlet with logo and Ayatollah Khamenei (Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi)

The Sariya al-Tali’a al Khorasani, Khorasani Brigade first became public in September 2013. That was the month it posted announcements about its activities in Syria on Facebook. Like other Iraqi factions involved in Syria the Khorasani Brigade said it was fighting in the Damascus area in defense of the Sayid Zainab shrine. On social media it also announced its loyalty to Iran and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Phillip Smyth pointed out on Jihadology the group’s logo is a variation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. By 2014 it was fighting in Iraq against the insurgency. It receives government funding under a program started by Premier Nouri al-Maliki to bring militias into the government security apparatus. It also works with advisers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force, and receives supplies from Tehran as well. In 2012, several Iraqi militias backed by Iran mobilized to go to Syria. This was after Quds Force commander General Suleimani put out the call to his Iraqi allies to come fight in that country. In 2013 many of those groups started moving back to Iraq as the insurgency started picking put there. They are now on the frontlines in almost every part of the country.

Two areas the Khorasani Brigade is currently working in are Tuz Kharmato in eastern Salahaddin and Jalawla in northeast Diyala. In the former, a Brigade commander said that it had 800 men there in November 2014. In Tuz’s Yangije a reporter for Foreign Policy found the town full of Khorasani militiamen. Residents accused the militia of destroying homes, arresting people, kidnapping others, and keeping locals from returning because they were believed to be supporters of the insurgency. The Brigade was also involved in a dispute with the peshmerga over control of the area. There was a firefight in Salam between the two sides that led to the death of one Shiite fighter. The Khorasani Brigade took six peshmerga hostages in retaliation. The group was also involved in the clearing of Jalawla in November. The head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party office stated there were 3,000 Khorasani members in the town. He went on to say that both the Kurds and Shiites were looting homes in the area. Like in Tuz Kharmato the two sides were arguing over who would control Jalawla. A Brigade commander told Reuters that the Kurds could not stay there. He claimed the peshmerga were bulldozing Arab homes to stop them from returning. Sunni refugees pointed the finger at the militias for keeping them out, and were afraid to return because of their presence. Another Khorasani commander blamed the problems in Jalawla mostly on the Kurds, but at the same time blamed any clashes between them on individuals, not any larger problems between them. Tuz Kharmato and Jalawla are both part of the disputed territories, which the Kurdistan Regional Government claims as historically theirs. During the summer the Islamic State seized them, and now that it has been pushed out the militias and Kurds are fighting for control. The militias say that they should remain under the government’s control setting the stage for a series of clashes.

The Khorasani Brigade’s actions in Tuz Kharmato and Jalawla point to some of the problems Iraq will face relying upon irregular forces. First, it is carrying out sectarian cleansing along with other militias in Tuz Kharmato and Jalawla. Some towns in the two areas have been completely destroyed and thousands have been displaced with little hope to return any time soon. That’s because the militias see the civilian population as the support base for the insurgents and are therefore considered legitimate targets. This is a repeat of the previous civil war from 2005-2008 when militias dramatically transformed the demographics in the center of the country by pushing out Sunnis. Second, the competition between the militias and peshmerga for control of the disputed territories will not end anytime soon. The Khorasani Brigade and others like Badr are pushing for government control of the areas not just because they are centralists, but also because of their ties to Iran. Tehran has warned the Kurds about declaring independence at this time, and appears to be using their militia allies to push the point in Salahaddin and Diyala. This could continue long after the insurgents are contained. Since Baghdad only has marginal control of the militias it will be difficult to rein them in, and likely require deals with Iran, which has become the dominant force in the country already. Groups like the Khorasani Brigade while helping to defeat the militants today, could lead to longer term divisions within Iraq down the road.

SOURCES

Ali, Dashty, “A New Northern Frontline Where Iraq’s Kurds And Shiites Are Facing Off,” Niqash, 12/18/14

Coles, Isabel, “Rivalries resurface in Iraqi town recaptured from Islamic State,” Reuters, 12/8/14

Fulton, Will, Holliday, Joseph & Wyer, Sam, “Iranian Strategy In Syria,” AEI’s Critical Threats Project & Institute for the Study of War, May 2013

Hassan, Tirana, “The Gangs of Iraq,” Foreign Policy, 11/3/14

Hawramy, Fazel and Harding, Luke, “Shia militia fightback against Isis sees tit-for-tat sectarian massacres of Sunnis,” Guardian, 11/12/14

Hussein, Mohammed, “Q & A: Shia militia commander Ali Jamal Hussein,” Iraq Oil Report, 12/9/14

Hussein, Mohammed, Osgood, Patrick, al-Atbi, Adam, “Shia militias spark furor in disputed territories,” Iraq Oil Report, 12/8/14

Mahmoud, Nawzad and Fraidon, Nahroz, “Jalawla: a lawless ghost town of Peshmerga and Shiite militias,” Rudaw, 12/16/14

Salih, Hemin, “Saadia to Remain Under Control of Iraqi Shiite Forces,” Bas News, 11/26/14

Smyth, Phillip, “Hizballah Cavalcade: Sariyya al-Tali’a al-Khurasani: A New Combat-Tested Shia Militia in Syria,” Jihadology, 10/29/13

Al-Tamimi, Aymenn Jawad and Spyer, Jonathan, “Iraq’s Shi’a Militias and Iran,” The Tower, December 2014

This Day In Iraqi History - Sep 10 1st Iraqi cabinet formed under new King Faisal govt

  1921 1 st Iraqi cabinet formed under newly coronated King Faisal Abd al-Rahman al-Gaylani became Iraq’s 1 st PM ( Musings On Ir...