Security In Iraq, Oct 1-7, 2016

Violence continued to fluctuate in Iraq. There was a drop in attacks, while casualties remained relatively stable. The government forces were in the midst of a new campaign to clear out the areas around Ramadi, some of which they had churned through before, while the Islamic State was carrying out minor counter attacks, and its usual terrorism in Baghdad.

There were 127 security incidents recorded in the first week of October. That was down from the previous weeks when violence increased in each week of September. This is the usual ebb and flow seen week to week in the country. Baghdad had the most attacks with 65, followed by 19 in Ninewa, 14 in Kirkuk, 11 in Diyala, 9 in Salahaddin, 8 in Anbar, and 1 in Babil.

274 deaths were reported and 331 wounded. 1 Sahwa, 2 Peshmerga, 11 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 27 Hashd, and 233 civilians were killed, and 3 Sahwa, 7 Peshmerga, 20 ISF, 21 Hashd, and 280 civilian were injured during the week.

Starting last month the Iraqi forces began a new campaign to clear the area from Fallujah to Hit in central Anbar. At the start of October, Albu Jassim was attacked, and Albu Rathe, Sana, Albu Assaf, Trabsha, and Tal Aswad were freed in the Hit Island, Ramadi, and Ramadi Island districts. Some of these areas the Iraqi forces had gone through before such as Albu Jassim that had been cleared three times last year, and Albu Assad that had been freed the week before. The Islamic State responded with four counter attacks in the area, and a rocket attack upon Ramadi. In total there were 8 incidents, 4 killed, and 6 wounded in the governorate.

Violence remained high in Baghdad, which has become the focus of the militants. There were 65 incidents leading to 112 dead and 272 wounded. That happened while Iraqi officials were talking about increased security in the capital during Muharram, the start of the new year in the Islamic calendar. IS carried out three suicide bombings all on one day, and another was arrested before he could set off his device. Those attacks left 15 fatalities and 52 injured. The largest cause of casualties was the 37 IEDs. 19 bodies were also found across the province, including seven men and women who were killed by a firing squad. The most violent parts of the province were the south, 21 incidents, and the north, 17, along with 14 in the ast and 13 in the west.

Diyala continued to have scattered violence across the province. There were 11 incidents that left 4 dead and 3 wounded. As usual, IS attempted a mass casualty bombing, but was stifled when the car bomb was discovered in Khalis and dismantled.

There was a mix of Islamic State attacks and a mass execution in Kirkuk. IS executed 45 people in Hawija for breaking various rules. IS also attacked the Peshmerga five times over two days with several suicide bombers in the Daquq district. IS only carries out a few offensive operations a month in the governorate. That’s because it has mostly been hunkering down in Hawija, the last area under its control, and attempting to maintain control of the population there.

87 people lost their lives and 26 were injured in Ninewa during the week. 29 of those deaths came from executions in Mosul and Qayara. Another 44 people were killed and 16 wounded in two air strikes blamed upon the U.S.-led coalition. One of those was a friendly fire incident that left 21 Hashd dead. IS also attacked the Iraqi forces and Peshmerga six times including two large ones that included suicide bombers and car bombs.

IS went nearly dormant in Salahaddin for several weeks, but has returned to its usual low level operations in October. It made four attacks in the Shirqat and Baiji area. Still violence remains at a very low level in the province with only 9 incidents, 14 dead, 6 wounded from October 1-7.

There were no successful car bombs in Iraq at the start of October. 11 were destroyed or dismantled with 1 in Diyala, 4 in Anbar, and 6 in Ninewa.

Violence In Iraq 2016

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	723	2,418	1,986
FEB	657	1,685	1,724
MAR	681	1,684	2,095
APR	629	1,835	1,904
MAY	673	1,637	2,484
JUN	630	2,111	6,449
Jul 1-7	120	589	635
Jul 8-14	129	242	316
Jul 15-21	123	168	272
Jul 22-28	115	234	366
Jul 29-31	43	95	119
JUL	530	1,328	1,708
Aug 1-7	109	342	255
Aug 8-14	121	176	245
Aug 15-21	155	388	392
Aug 22-28	134	269	312
Aug 29-31	55	88	172
AUG	574	1,263	1,376
Sep 1-7	119	341	381
Sep 8-14	125	197	313
Sep 15-21	137	172	352
Sep 22-28	159	326	469
Sep 29-30	33	167	87
SEP	573	1,203	1,602
Oct 1-7	127	274	331

Security By Province Oct 1-7, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	8 Incidents 4 Killed: 1 ISF, 3 Civilians 6 Wounded: 2 ISF, 4 Civilians 4 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Rockets 4 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	1 Incident 2 Wounded: 2 ISF 1 IED
Baghdad	65 Incidents 112 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 4 ISF, 5 Hashd, 102 Civilians 272 Wounded: 3 Sahwa, 12 ISF, 16 Hashd, 241 Civilians 14 Shootings 37 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 3 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Bomber Arrested
Diyala	11 Incidents 4 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Civilians 3 Wounded: 3 Civilians 6 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Kirkuk	14 Incidents 53 Killed: 1 ISF, 52 Civilians 16 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 3 ISF, 11 Civilians 7 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Rockets 1 Mortar 4 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested
Ninewa	19 Incidents 87 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 21 Hashd, 62 Civilians 26 Wounded: 5 Hashd, 5 Peshmerga, 16 Civilians 6 Shootings 2 Mortars 5 Suicide Bombers Killed 5 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	9 Incidents 14 Killed: 1 ISF,  Hashd, 12 Civilians 6 Wounded: 1 ISF, 5 Civilians 7 Shootings 2 IEDs

Car Bombs In Iraq Oct 1-7, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 3	Qayara, Ninewa – 6 destroyed
Oct 4
Oct 5	Hit, Anbar – 4 destroyed Khalis, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Oct 6
Oct 7
Totals	0 – 11 Destroyed

SOURCES

AIN, "Arrested a suicide bomber dressed as a woman near a primary school in Karrada," 10/5/16

Buratha News, "Daesh terrorists executed 45 people after detention southwest Kirkuk," 10/3/16

Al Maalomah, "14 Daash killed and the destruction of four car bombs in aerial bombardment western Anbar," 10/5/16

- "The death of two civilians and wounding four others in Daash pounding of west Ramadi," 10/1/16

- "Dismantled a car bomb center of Khalis," 10/5/16

Al Mada, "The deaths of dozens of Daesh repelled attack south of Mosul," 10/3/16

- "Killing and injuring eight soldiers in a suicide bombing southwest Baghdad," 10/3/16

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Attacks in Iraqi Capital Kill at Least 16 Civilians," Assocaited Press, 10/3/16

Sotaliraq, "Killing and woundign 26 members of the tribal crowd in international coalition bombing south Nineveh," 10/5/16

WILSON CENTER VIDEO: Iraq The Next Chapter Phebe Marr

Anbar’s Governor Remains In Office Despite Dismissal

Anbar’s governor was dismissed for a second time in four months, but remains in office. In June, members of the Anbar council voted out Governor Suhaib al-Rawi charging him with corruption. A month later, the courts threw out Rawi’s dismissal. That didn’t stop his opponents however. In July and August they wanted to question him about accusations against him. He didn’t show up for either session, which led the council to vote him out a second time at the end of August. Governor Rawi disputed the vote once again, saying it was illegal. The case is back to the courts once again, and Rawi is still in power and going about his duties.

This is all part of a larger struggle for control of Anbar. The governor is from the Iraqi Islamic Party, which has ruled the province since 2005. Several tribal sheikhs and the Sunni Endowment oppose it. Now that the governorate is being freed from the insurgents these political struggles are coming to the fore. So far, the Islamic Party has been able to out maneuver its rivals, but the governorship shows that the battle is far from over. 

SOURCES

AIN, “After the postponement of the decision of dismissal Governor: We will not allow mixing leaves and serving political motives,” 10/5/16

Buratha News, “Govenror issues clarification on the decision to fire him and sends a message to Anbar,” 10/5/16

- “Suhaib al-Rawi again challenged decision of his dismissal,” 8/29/16

Al Mada, “Administrative Court rejects the decision to dismiss the governor of Anbar,” 7/28/16

- “Anbar Council sets date for next Tuesday to question the governor,” 8/16/16

- “Anbar Council vote on the question of the governor..Officials accused Arab countries of being behind the attempt,” 8/3/16

- “Anbar Council voted to dismiss Governor Suhaib al-Raqi,” 8/29/16

Sep 2016 Saw More Fluctuations In Iraq’s Oil Exports And Revenues

Thanks to an increased flow through Basra and a new deal with Kurdistan Iraq’s oil exports increased in September 2016. Unfortunately, prices went down at the same time leading to a decrease in revenues, which continued the country’s budgetary crisis.

For the month, Iraq exported an average of 3.276 million barrels a day. That was up from the 3.229 million in August, 3.203 in July, 3.175 in June, and 3.2 in May. An average of 3.245 million barrels came from Basra and 935,270 from Kirkuk. The latter was part of a new export deal with the Kurds, which agreed to share their pipeline to Turkey once again. Overall, the country is averaging 3.249 million barrels a day in 2016, up from 3.003 million in 2015.

While exports have been up, prices have continued to fluctuate up and down. In September they dipped to $38.89 per barrel, down from $39.24 in August. That meant Iraq earned $3.822 billion for the month, which was less than the $3.928 billion it made in August. So far, Iraq has brought in an average of $3.324 billion per month this year. It needs $4 billion a month just to pay salaries and pensions, and is the main reason why the country is in a financial crisis. Iraq has not made that amount since July 2015, and only did so for five months of that year because of the glut in the world petroleum market that has driven down price. Iraq is contributing to that dilemma with its increased oil production.

Iraq Oil Exports & Revenues 2015-16

Month	Avg. Exports	Avg. Price Per Barrel	Earnings (Bil)
Jan	2.535	$41.45	$3.258
Feb	2.597	$47.43	$3.449
Mar	2.980	$48.24	$4.457
Apr	3.077	$51.70	$4.8
May	3.145	$55.87	$5.447
Jun	3.187	$55.32	$5.289
Jul	3.104	$50.99	$4.908
Aug	3.079	$40.59	$3.925
Sep	3.052	$40.32	$3.725
Oct	2.703	$39.56	$3.29
Nov	3.363	$36.42	$3.66
Dec	3.215	$29.84	$2.92
2015 Avg.	3.003	$44.81	$4.094
Jan	3.285	$22.21	$2.262
Feb	3.224	$23	$2.249
Mar	3.287	$28.40	$2.894
Apr	3.363	$33.38	$3.368
May	3.200	$37.78	$3.748
Jun	3.175	$40.36	$3.845
Jul	3.203	$38.28	$3.802
Aug	3.229	$39.24	$3.928
Sep	3.276	$38.89	$3.822
2016 Avg.	3.249	$33.50	$3.324

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, Al-Najaf, Kamaran, and Osgood, Patrick, “Oil exports tick up in September, but revenue declined,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/2/16