Tit For Tat In Ninewa

The on-going dispute between the Kurdish led Ninewa Fraternal List and the new Al-Hadbaa List that won in Ninewa after the January provincial elections took another turn this month, May 2009. First, Kurdish forces prevented the new Al-Hadbaa governor from attending a sporting event. Then tribesman demanded that the Kurdish peshmerga exit the province, followed by Kurds calling for a boycott of the new government. Finally, Baghdad is being lobbied to force the Kurds’ to stop their objections to Al-Hadbaa’s rule.

On May 8, the newly appointed governor of Ninewa, Atheel al-Nujafi, the leader of Al-Hadbaa, tried to attend a hot-air balloon festival in Bashiqa. A Kurdish peshmerga militia unit stopped him. The head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Mosul said that the peshmerga were only trying to prevent possible violence that might have occurred if the governor had showed up for the event. Bashiqa is a Kurdish town that does not recognize the authority of the new Al-Hadbaa government. As reported before, after the new provincial council was seated in late April 2009, three districts of Ninewa, Sinjar, Shirkhan, and Hatra, which have largely Kurdish and Yazidi populations, announced that they would refuse to cooperate with the provincial government.

In response, on May 12 over 1,000 tribesmen marched to the provincial government building in Mosul. There they demanded that the peshmerga leave the province. This was something the Al-Hadbaa List called for while it was running for office. Kurdish officials in Ninewa have said that their militias are going nowhere.

That was followed by a demonstration by Kurds in the Shirkhan district supporting the boycott of the new provincial council on May 17. After the Al-Hadbaa party took all the major seats on the new provincial council on April 12 the Ninewa Fraternal List walked out on the local government.

According to Iraq Slogger.com, Governor Nujafi has become so frustrated at the situation that he has gone to Baghdad for help. There he has talked to members of the central government to try to get them to force the Kurdish-led Ninewa Fraternal List to stop their opposition to the Al-Hadbaa led Ninewa government.

The Al-Hadbaa List is a coalition of four different parties. Those are the Al-Hadbaa National United Assembly, the Patriotic and National Forces Assembly, the Iraq and Kurdsitani Party for Freedom and Equality, and Al-Wasat Iraqi Assembly. They ran on a platform of Iraqi unity, a call for the end of the U.S. occupation, women’s rights, better government, development, and a condemnation of Kurdish rule in Ninewa. Due to the 2005 Sunni boycott, the Kurds were able to take control of the provincial government then. The List is Arab led, but also includes Kurds. The new deputy head of the provincial council Dildar al-Zibari for example, is a Kurd.

The two major Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, head the Ninewa Fraternal List. It also includes the Islamic Union of Kurdistan, the Kurdistan Communist Party, the Iraqi Communist Party, the Assyrian Party, and the Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party. Their rule after the January 2005 provincial elections was not only known for creating fear amongst Arabs that the Kurds were attempting to annex northern sections of the province, but also for a lack of services and security. Next to Baghdad, Ninewa has been the most violent area of the country in the last couple years. The fighting has prevented government offices from delivering regular services there. For example, the province rates below the national average in education and electricity, and also has large swaths of poverty. It was these issues that led to the Fraternal List’s defeat in 2009.

The standoff between the two sides is likely to last for the foreseeable future. Neither side seems willing to budge. The Kurdish parties have de facto control of several disputed territories in northern Ninewa and will not give them up. This could lead to deadlock in the province, and undermine the ability of the new government to move ahead with its plans, as well as establish better security.

For more on the political situation in Ninewa see:

Ninewa Struggles Between Arabs and Kurds Continue

Arab-Kurdish Divide Over New Ninewa Provincial Council

Al-Hadbaa Party Leader's Vision For Ninewa

SOURCES

Abouzeid, Rania, “Arabs-Kurd Tensions Could Threaten Iraq’s Peace,” Time, 3/24/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Al-Nejefi: negotiations with Ninewa Fraternal list postponed,” 4/28/09
- “Mosulians fear political tension effect on council’s performance,” 4/27/09
- “Ninewa chieftans protest Peshmerga, Asayesh presence,” 5/12/09
- “Shaykhan protest calls for boycotting Ninewa’s local govt.,” 5/17/09

Kamal, Adel, “kurdish boycott threatens ninawa stability,” Niqash, 4/27/09

Niqash, “the hadbaa national list,” 1/28/09

Robertson, Campbell, “Violence Rises in Iraq’s Tense North,” New York Times, 5/13/09

Robertson, Campbell and Farrell, Stephen, “Iraqi Sunnis Turn to Politics and renew Strength,” New York Times, 4/17/09

Latest United Nations Numbers on Returns To Iraq

In April 2009 the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) released its latest statistics on displaced and refugee returns to Iraq. Currently Iraq has one of the largest refugee problems in the world. The common figure quoted is that 4.8 million Iraqis have lost their homes. Around two million are believed to have left the country, while the rest are internally displaced. The UNHCR counts fewer with 2 million refugees and 1.6 million displaced. From the U.S. invasion to March 2009 the U.N. estimates that just over 1 million Iraqis have returned. This includes displaced from both before and after 2003. The UNHCR report shows that this process has happened in fits and spurts.

The process of returning began just after the invasion ended. In 2003 9,237 refugee families, or 55,429 people, came back to the country. In 2004 internally displaced families began returning, and twice as many refugees. From 2005 to the present however the number of refugees coming back has seen a sharp decline that is only just starting to come back up this year. Returning refugees went from 193,997 in 2004 to 56,155 in 2005 to 20,235 in 2006, a slight increase to 45,420 in 2007, and then down to 25,370 in 2008, and 8,790 through the first three months of 2009. The same pattern happened with the displaced going from 150,000 in 2006, down to 36,000 in 2007, and then back up to 195,890 in 2008. So far 22,940 have come back from January to March 2009 according to the U.N. The numbers show two divergent trends. For the displaced, returns went up from 2004 to 2006, but then took a dramatic drop in 2007 probably because of the sectarian war where thousands were losing their homes. In 2008 a record number came back as the security situation improved. In 2009 each month saw more displaced come back as well. Refugees however saw the largest number coming back in 2004 and then going down until 2007. Perhaps they were testing the waters after the Surge improved security, but then their numbers went back down in 2008. Like the displaced however, each month in 2009 has seen an increase in returns. A possible explanation is that living in another country gives them relative safety, which they are not willing to give up right now to return to a country that still sees violence. Another reason could be that most of the Iraqis living abroad are Sunnis, and don’t feel comfortable yet returning to a country that is run by Shiites and Kurds, and where their neighborhoods may have been taken over by another sect.

Estimated Returns of Displaced Iraqis
2003 0
2004 98,000
2005 98,000
2006 150,000
2007 36,000
2008 195,890
Jan. to March 2009 22,940
TOTAL: 600,830, 60% of all returns

Estimated Returns of Iraqi Refugees
2003 55,429
2004 193,997
2005 56,155
2006 20,235
2007 45,420
2008 25,370
Jan. to March 2009 8,790
TOTAL: 405,396, 40% of all returns

Total Returns
2003 55,429
2004 291,997
2005 154,155
2006 170,235
2007 81,420
2008 221,260
Jan. to March 2009 31,730
TOTAL: 1,006,226

Total Returns From October 2008 to March 2009
Oct. 08 14,840
Nov. 08 11,260
Dec. 08 11,910
Jan. 09 4,600
Feb. 09 10,170
March 09 16,960

Total Returns of Refugees October 2008 to March 2009
Oct. 08 2,540
Nov. 08 3,640
Dec. 08 2,090
Jan. 09 1,010
Feb. 09 2,630
March 09 5,150

Total Returns of Displaced October 2008 to March 2009
Oct. 08 12,300
Nov. 08 7,620
Dec. 08 9,820
Jan. 09 3,590
Feb. 09 7,540
March 09 11,810

At the provincial level the U.N.’s figures show that Baghdad, Diyala and Ninewa have had the most returns, while Kurdistan and half of the south have had the least. Baghdad remains the center of violence in the country. For that reason it has seen both the most displaced and the greatest number of those coming back. In 2008 118,330 Iraqis went back to that province, 53% of the total. Next was Diyala with 67,150 returns, 30% of the total, and Ninewa with 15,960 coming back, or 7% of the total. That compared to Qadisiyah with 30 people, Muthann with 50, Dhi Qar with 100, and Sulaymaniya with 180. In 2009 70% of returns have gone to Baghdad, followed by Ninewa 8%, and Diyala 5%. For refugees, Tamim, Najaf and Baghdad were the three main destinations in 2008 in that ascending order. The next year that slightly changed to Babil, Najaf and Baghdad. For the first three months of this year, there have also been three provinces, Anbar, Ninewa, and Sulaymaniya that have seen absolutely no refugees coming back. Displaced returnees were concentrated in Ninewa, Diyala, and Baghdad, and similarly few went back to the south or far north.

Total Returns By Province 2008
Qadisiyah 30
Muthanna 50
Dhi Qar 100
Sulaymaniya 180
Salahaddin 690
Irbil 700
Karbala 910
Dohuk 990
Wasit 1,410
Maysan 1,710
Babil 2,010
Najaf 2,170
Anbar 2,540
Basra 2,920
Tamim 3,410
Ninewa 15,960
Diyala 67,150
Baghdad 21,710

Total Returns By Province 2009
Sulaymaniya 0
Anbar 40
Dohuk 40
Salahaddin 90
Irbil 90
Muthanna 130
Maysan 180
Dhi Qar 230
Qadisiyah 340
Karbala 410
Tamim 410
Babil 860
Wasit 880
Basra 920
Najaf 1,000
Diyala 1,470
Ninewa 2,420
Baghdad 22,220

Refugee Returns 2008 By Province
Qadisiyah 10
Muthanna 50
Ninewa 50
Sulamaniya 80
Dhi Qar 80
Salahaddin 400
Maysan 620
Wasit 630
Babil 650
Irbil 700
Karbala 910
Dohuk 960
Anbar 1,150
Basra 1,180
Diyala 1,290
Tamim 2,060
Najaf 2,090
Baghdad 12,460

Refugee Returns 2009 By Province
Anbar 0
Ninewa 0
Sulaymaniyah 0
Dohuk 40
Salahaddin 40
Irbil 70
Diyala 120
Muthanna 130
Maysan 150
Dhi Qar 220
Wasit 230
Qadisiyah 340
Karbala 410
Basra 450
Babil 520
Najaf 1,000
Baghdad 4,670

Displaced Returns 2008 By Province
Irbil 0
Karbala 0
Muthanna 0
Qadisiyah 20
Dhi Qar 20
Dohuk 30
Najaf 80
Sulaymaniya 100
Salahaddin 290
Wasit 780
Maysan 1,090
Tamim 1,350
Babil 1,360
Anbar 1,390
Basra 1,740
Ninewa 15,910
Diyala 65,860
Baghdad 105,870

Displaced Returns 2009 By Province
Dohuk 0
Qadisiyah 0
Karbala 0
Muthanna 0
Najaf 0
Sulaymaniya 0
Tamim 10
Dhi Qar 10
Irbil 20
Maysan 30
Anbar 40
Salahaddin 50
Babil 340
Basra 470
Wasit 650
Diyala 1,350
Ninewa 2,420
Baghdad 17,550

Baghdad has been at the center of the fighting in Iraq since 2003, so it has seen the most displacement and returns. The numbers coming back have gone up and down like the rest of the country. From October 2008 to January 2009 the numbers followed a downward trend, but then hit a high in March. Around 50% of the returnees have gone back to the Western district of Karkh along the Tigris River. That use to be a largely mixed Sunni-Shiite area of the capital.

Total Returns To Baghdad October 2008 to March 2009
Oct. 08 6,940
Nov. 08 4,970
Dec. 08 3,830
Jan. 09 2,000
Feb. 09 7,550
March 09 12,670
2008 48% went to Karkh, 36% went to unknown, 8% went to Resafa
2009 57% went to Karkh, 14% went to Khadimiya, 9% went to unknown

The UNHCR is one of the most comprehensive reports on returns to Iraq. Other organizations such as the International Organization for Migration concentrate on the displaced since the U.S. invasion, and specifically those that left after the February 2006 Samarra bombing that set off the sectarian war. Other groups like Refugees International, in their latest papers have just written about those coming back in the last 1-2 years. The U.N. provides a much more comprehensive view of the situation, showing that not only have Iraqis been coming back since the U.S. invasion, but that there were displaced before and after the war. It’s often overlooked that Saddam created large displacements especially in the south amongst Shiites and in the north with Kurds. Many of those returned in the immediate months after the invasion. The sectarian war then set off another wave of mass evacuations that have created much of the current crisis. The UNHCR also shows that these returns have gone up and down, and that refugees and internally displaced have followed different patterns. While the process appears to be increasing in recent months, the government and international organizations still lack the resources and in Baghdad’s case, the will, do deal with them.

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, “IOM Emergency Needs Assessments; Post February 2006 Displacement In Iraq, Monthly Report,” 4/1/09

Refugees International, “Iraq: Preventing the Point of No Return,” 4/9/09

United States Government Accountability Office, “Iraqi Refugee Assistance Improvements Needed in Measuring Progress, Assessing Needs, Tracking Funds, and Developing an International Strategic Plan,” April 2009

United Nations High Commission for Refugees, “UNHCR Iraq Operation Monthly Statistical Update on Return – March 2009,” UNHCR, March 2009

New Attack And Death Statistics For Iraq

The spate of bombings that hit Iraq in April 2009 had people worrying that the country might be falling back into chaos. A series of new reports however show that the number of overall attacks is still far below the levels seen in 2008, but casualties are climbing back up to what they were at the end of last year. Recently the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction released its latest quarterly report, which included new statistics on attacks in Iraq from the U.S. military. Anthony Cordesman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies also released a report at the end of April on violence in Iraq. Finally, the news services and Iraqi ministries released their monthly totals for deaths in Iraq at the beginning of May. Together all of this information paints a picture of a nation that is much improved from the peak of the war, but still lacks stability and peace.

Throughout 2008 the number of overall attacks took a steady drop across all areas of the country, reaching a plateau in early 2009. A chart provided by the Defense Department on security incidents shows that from November 2007 to March 2008 there were around 550 incidents a week. The security crackdown on the Sadrists in Basra and then Sadr City led to a brief jump in attacks, only to see a steady decline from May to November when incidents went down to about 200-300 per week. From November to April 2009 Iraq saw a new low of approximately 150 incidents per week, the fewest since the U.S. invasion. Most of these attacks were concentrated in just six provinces, Anbar, Tamim, Diyala, Salahaddin, Ninewa and Baghdad.

In terms of raw numbers, attacks recorded by the U.S. military went from an average of 1,772.6 per month from April 1 to July 1, to 1,715.5 per month from July 1 to September 30, then down to 1,169.0 from October 1 to December 31, and then finally taking a huge drop to 323.0 from January 1 to March 20, 2009. The main cause for this decline was the January 2009 provincial elections. In 2005 the Sunnis largely boycotted, and were now eager to gain power. The provinces that had large Sunni populations saw some of the highest turnouts as a result. Since those were also the areas with the most violence, the insurgents seemed to have taken a hiatus to allow the locals to organize and vote, thus accounting for the sharp decline in security incidents.

Total Number of Attacks In Iraq From April 1, 2008-March 20, 2009 From U.S. Military From Least To Most Violent

Province	Total Attacks 4/1/08-7/1/08	Total Attacks 7/1/08- 9/30/08	Total Attacks 10/1/08- 12/31/08	Total Attacks 1/1/09- 3/20/09
Muthanna	2	1	1	1
Karbala	1	4	0	1
Najaf	4	1	2	1
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya)	3	6	3	1
Qadisiyah	17	7	9	2
Dhi-Qar	17	21	7	4
Wasit	34	8	9	8
Maysan	12	43	39	24
Basra	108	26	11	11
Babil	81	54	62	17
Anbar	275	209	162	53
Tamim	248	245	184	73
Diyala	537	533	251	123
Salahaddin	717	482	374	138
Ninewa	1,041	924	511	219
Baghdad	2,221	867	713	293
TOTALS:	5,318	3,431	2,338	969
Avg. Per Month	1,772.6	1,715.5	1,169.0	323.0

The drop in attacks obviously had an impact on casualties. All the major sources of information on deaths in Iraq, Iraq Body Count.org, icasualties.org, the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, Iraqi ministries, and the Associated Press, all saw a steady decline in deaths from the middle of 2008 to January 2009. ABC News also received statistics from an Iraqi official that Anthony Cordesman published, which showed the same trend. Iraq Body Count for example recorded an average of 538.1 deaths a month from July to December 2008. In January 2009 that dropped to 275. The Iraqi Defense, Interior and Health Ministries found an average of 353.2 deaths per month from September to December 2008, which then dropped to 191 in January. Since the beginning of January however, all the organizations and the Iraqi official found a steady increase in deaths. Icasualties.org and the Iraqi ministries reported that the number of deaths in April 2009 even eclipsed December 2008. Since the voting ended on January 31 and the provincial councils have now all been formed, casualties have gone back up as the insurgents have no reason to hold back anymore. The mass casualty bombings that hit Baghdad in April were a sign of their return.

Iraqi Deaths

	Iraq Body Count	icasualties.Org	Brookings Iraq Index	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press	Iraqi Official (Minus Kurdistan)
July 08	583	419	500	851		865
Aug. 08	591	311	450		475	893
Sep. 08	535	366	400	440	503	979
Oct. 08	527	288	350	317		757
Nov. 08	472	317	270	340		716
Dec. 08	521	320	350	316		668
Jan. 09	275	187	270	191	242	542
Feb. 09	343	202	230	258	288	500
March 09	415	278	260	252	335	463
April 09	358	347	N/A	355	371	677

The Iraqi official mentioned in Cordesman's report also provided numbers on attacks and casualties in Baghdad, the most violent area in the nation. They showed that there were an average of 158.8 attacks per month in the capital from July to December 2008. For the first four months of 2009 that went down to 114.5. The official's statistics also covered wounded and deaths. Those revealed that there is not a direct correlation between the number of security incidents and casualties. For example, in November 2008 there were 159 attacks in Baghdad, one less than the previous month. However those resulted in 621 wounded and 208 deaths in November compared to 419 wounded and 183 fatalities in October. That goes to show that a few bombings can have a dramatic affect on people, while not changing the attack statistics.

Types Of Attacks By Month & Casualties In Baghdad July 08-April 09 (Iraqi Official)

	July 08	Aug 08	Sep 08	Oct 08	Nov 08	Dec 08	Jan 09	Feb 09	Mar 09	Apr 09
RPG	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Hand grenade	5	1	5	0	0	0	2	1	0	6
Katyshua	1	2	0	0	2	0	3	0	10	3
Mortar	34	54	46	37	21	29	21	21	30	32
Assassinations	17	17	16	17	19	5	0	13	9	11
Car bombs	6	7	15	5	7	5	0	4	3	13
Suicide bombings	3	1	2	1	2	1	2	0	2	3
Bicycle bombs	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
IEDs	94	92	113	98	80	54	64	71	48	49
Magnetic IEDs	0	0	0	0	28	9	5	5	17	9
Total Attacks	160	174	197	160	159	103	97	115	119	127
Security forces wounded	43	73	95	83	90	39	62	37	34	64
Civilians wounded	324	274	525	336	531	273	392	269	281	558
Total wounded	367	347	620	419	621	312	454	306	315	622
Bodies found	67	61	60	46	38	24	14	12	11	16
Security forces killed	19	18	23	19	22	16	15	9	15	37
Civilians killed	91	97	156	118	148	97	113	71	115	228
Total killed	177	176	239	183	208	137	142	92	211	281

While violence may be down to record lows since the 2003 invasion, that does not mean that Iraq has escaped its troubles. Anthony Cordesman made an important point when he said that there were many Americans who took the drop in casualties in Iraq after the Surge as victory. What the change in strategy created was a new status quo, not an end to the conflict. There are still plenty of political divisions, millions of displaced and refugees, and casualties. The commanding U.S. General Ray Odierno recently said that Iraq could see violence for the next five to fifteen years. That's the long-range timeframe people need to think about, not the recent decline in deaths, or the recent series of bombings.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Iraq Hails Lowest Monthly Death Toll in Three Years," 1/2/09

- "March violence claims 252 Iraqi lives," 4/1/09

Alsumaria, "Iraq death toll lowest since five years," 2/2/09

- "Iraq violence kills 320 people in October," 11/1/08

Associated Press, "April Ends As Deadly Month For U.S. Troops," 5/1/09

Bumiller, Elisabeth, "General Sees a Longer Stay in Iraq Cities for U.S. Troops," New York Times, 5/9/09

Cordesman, Anthony, "Iraq: USCENTCOM and Iraqi Government Estimates of the Trends in the Patterns in Violence and Casualties," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5/1/09

Gamel, Kim, "Iraq forces gain more control, but lose more lives," Associated Press, 9/30/08

icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count.org

Londono, Ernesto, "U.S. Says Iraq Is Withholding Key Detainee," Washington Post, 5/2/09

O'Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, "Iraq Index," Brookings Institution, 4/30/09

Raghavan, Sudarsan, "Deaths of Iraqis in July Lower Than in May, June," Washington Post, 8/2/08

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, "Quarterly Report to the United States Congress," 10/30/08

- "Quarterly Report to the United States Congress," 4/30/09

- "Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress," 1/30/09

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, "Humanitarian Update Iraq, March 2009" United Nations, 4/27/09