Thursday, July 14, 2011

Protests In Iraq Continue Into July

July 2011 saw continued protests in Iraq. There was a sit-in in Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar, and a march in Basra over the lack of services. The weekly demonstration on Friday in Baghdad also occurred. While local officials made themselves available in Dhi Qar and Basra, the same was not true in the capital. At the end of Friday’s event there was a scuffle with pro-government forces, plus a few arrests by the security forces that subsequently beat their detainees. The first week of July was one of the few where there were assemblies outside of Baghdad. It also showed that while provincial councils have tried to be accommodating towards activists, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is intent on intimidating them, and breaking them up.

On July 3, 2011, protesters gathered in Dhi Qar’s provincial capital Nasiriyah. They started with a march to the city center where they then held a rally outside the provincial council building. People chanted for the release of prisoners, to not allow Baathists in the government, (1) for better security, economic development, to end corruption, for jobs and services, and for the governor, the head of the council, and Dhi Qar’s police chief to all resign. The protesters also called for Dhi Qar to become its own region as the best way to achieve these goals. They said that they would stay until their demands were met. They then set up tents and shanties outside the council headquarters for a sit-in. (2) A member of the council said that they had meetings with protesters before, and that they planned on consulting with this new group, but organizers refused, claiming that the politicians had made plenty of promises before, but never followed through with them. That led the governor to come out and talk with the demonstrators. He promised to pass on their list of demands to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad. Dhi Qar has been one of the most active provinces in the country outside of Baghdad. Most recently, assemblies were held there on July 2 and June 24, but there were also protests over the lack of electricity back in June 2010.
Protesters in Nasiriyah making their demands (Al-Sharqiya TV)
March in Nasiriyah (Al-Sharqiya TV)
Setting up tents in Nasiriyah (News Network Nasiriyah)
Sit-in, Nasiriyah (News Network Nasiriyah)
Two days later, people came out onto the streets of Um Qasr in Basra against the lack of services. They complained that they did not get an adequate supply of electricity and drinking water. Some local politicians also joined in. The city council even issued a statement in support of the event saying that Basra was rich with oil, but that it lacked the basic necessities and infrastructure to be wealthy. The governor of the province sent a delegation to meet with the organizers, while the deputy governor said that the people had legitimate complaints. Basra province has also seen its spate of demonstrations this year as part of Iraq’s Arab Spring, and was also the catalyst for the protests last year about electricity. The governorate is the home to most of the country’s oil fields, and its only major ports, yet services are still poor, and there is widespread poverty. Those have been major points of contention for years, and have finally boiled over.

Finally, July 8 was the day for the weekly gathering at Tahrir Square, Baghdad. Hundreds turned out voicing a variety of issues as usual, but one of the main ones was the visit of Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Rahimi. The protesters demanded that the government stop Iranian interference in the country such as their support for Special Groups. They also criticized Baghdad for doing nothing about Iranian shelling of Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, and sending polluted water into Basra and Maysan. Others complained about corruption, demanded that early elections be held, and that the U.S. withdraw its forces immediately. Some workers from the Election Commission showed up again, asking for full time contracts. The crowd also burned U.S., British, and Israeli flags, and tried to torch an Iranian one as well. Some of the chants heard were “Friday after Friday until we rid of al-Maliki,” “We haven’t seen oil, but only poverty,” and “They’re all thieves.” This eclectic mix of demands has been the normal fare at the Tahrir protests. Several hundred also showed up this week, which was more than pervious weeks. That might show that activists in the capital at least, may be growing bolder after the government’s steps to repress them.
Banners seen at Tahrir Square, Bahgdad (Al-Sharqiya TV)
Protesters at Tahrir Square (National Iraqi News Network)
Chanting at Tahrir Square
Everything was going peacefully until the end of the protest. Some supporters of the prime minister showed up, and began harassing some of the demonstrators. Then when the people were leaving the square, security forces arrested several participants. First, several plainclothes officers began beating one activist, before throwing him a truck of a car and driving off. A woman who was taking picture of the assault had another group of plainclothes men drag her out of a bus, and take her away. A worker for the Al-Mada newspaper was also arrested and beaten, and a protester had his house raided. In total, the Popular Coordination Movement claimed that seven of its members were arrested that day. Five of them were later released, and claimed that they were beaten and abused by the security forces. July 8 turned out to be like many other Friday’s, with Maliki trying to intimidate and break-up the demonstration. He has organized members of his Dawa and the tribal support councils as counter demonstrators, and has carried out a wave of arrests of activists. That has shut down most of the protests in the country, but organizers have still been able to bring people out every Friday in Baghdad despite the premier’s best efforts.

Maliki’s attitude towards the protest movement was shown in two recent meetings. First, on July 7, the Dawa Party held a conference with tribal support councils in Karbala. They thanked those that went to Tahrir Square, and helped suppress demonstrators on June 10, while threatening those that hadn’t been cooperative. Then on July 8, Maliki gave a speech to sheikhs in Baghdad saying that the changes occurring in the rest of the Arab world would not occur in Iraq. He claimed that the country was “immune” from the Arab Spring, and that the nation had to stand together to maintain stability. Rather than answer the people’s demands or simply use the riot police to break up demonstrations, the premier has increasingly turned to extra-legal means. Maliki originally created the tribal support councils to counter Moqtada al-Sadr’s militia, but now they are simply becoming a group of vigilantes to be used by the prime minister against his opponents. Maliki’s remarks about Iraq not being like other countries in the region also showed that he is completely unwilling to accept the legitimacy of the demonstrators.

July has started off much like previous months. On the one hand, the prime minister is attempting to use force to end the protests, while on the other provincial officials have either done nothing since the demonstrations started, or lack the capabilities to meet any of their demands. That represents one major dilemma for activists. Neither the local nor central authorities have the will or means to bring about any meaningful reforms in the country. At the same time, the protest movement has been largely repressed by the prime minister’s tactics meaning that outside pressure on the government is diminishing, and so are the hopes for any real change to come out of the nation’s demonstrations.

FOOTNOTES

1. Hamid, Murtaza, “The governor of Dhi Qar met with a  number of demonstrators in Nasiriyah, looking to meet their demands,” Voice of Iraq, 7/4/11

2. Al Aalem, “Demonstration for the Mujahideen for federalism in the south turned to the military barracks in Nasiriyah,” 7/3/11

SOURCES

Al Aalem, “Demonstration for the Mujahideen for federalism in the south turned to the military barracks in Nasiriyah,” 7/3/11

Alsumaria, “Hundreds of protests in Baghdad Tahrir Square,” 7/9/11

Aswat al-Iraq, “4 demonstrators arrested – Activist,” 7/8/11
- “Burning flags, 4 detained in today’s demonstration,” 7/8/11
- “Civilian Organization charges government with arresting 7 of its activists in Baghdad demonstration,” 7/9/11
- “February gathering sit-in in Nassiriya,” 6/24/11
- “Nassiriya demonstration demands Federalism in South Iraq,” 7/3/11

Hamid, Murtaza, “The governor of Dhi Qar met with a  number of demonstrators in Nasiriyah, looking to meet their demands,” Voice of Iraq, 7/4/11

Al-Kadhimi, Bahaa, “Umm Qasr protesters decry lack of basic services,” AK News, 7/6/11

Al-Mada, “Head of government: Iraq is immune from the Arab spring,” 7/8/11

National Iraqi News Agency, “Demonstrators denounce Iran’s Vice President visit, demanding Iran stop violations of Iraqi sovereignty,” 7/8/11

Saadi, Ahmed, “Threatening some tribal support councils in the chapter to not participate in the repression of demonstrations in Tahrir Square,” Shatt al-Arab, 7/7/11

Sharqiya Television,” Dozens of people from the city of Nasiriyah, begin a sit-in,” 7/3/11
- “Tribal elders in Dhi Qar: the deterioration of services and lack of the most basic requirements of the Simple Life,” 7/2/11

Shatt al-Arab, “Liberation Square: government forces glaciation young demonstrators,” 7/9/11

Tawfeeq, Mohammed, “Activists: Protesters beaten in Baghdad,” CNN, 7/8/11

AL JAZEERA VIDEO: Inside Story - US Points Finger At Iran For Iraq Violence

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Iraq’s Oil Exports Hit A New High, While Prices Drop

Partial figures have just been released for Iraq’s June 2011 oil production. They show that the country has reached another post-2003 high in exports, but that dropping oil prices are decreasing its profits.

Last month, Iraq’s exports rose for the third straight month. In June, Iraq exported an average of 2.27 million barrels of oil per day. That was the most since 2003. In April, it exported 2.14 million barrels, and then 2.22 million in May. For all of this year Iraq has been able to ship out more than 2 million barrels a day to foreign markets, another post-invasion first. That doesn’t mean they have constantly grown each month however. In February, Iraq exported 2.20 million barrels for example, before dropping to 2.15 million in March. The reason for the up and down pattern is that exports are shaped by a number of factors such as weather in the port of Basra that can limit boats dockings, maintenance on pipelines that can temporarily shut them down, and attacks, which are still common along the northern pipeline. Most importantly, the nation’s infrastructure is extremely limited due to years of wars and sanctions. That means it is unlikely to see any large increase in production until new pipelines, ports, etc. are built, the first of which isn’t due until the end of the year

As usual, the south was the mainstay of the country’s petroleum industry. Basra exported an average of 1.727 million barrels, slightly up from the 1.725 million in May. The northern pipeline to Turkey shipped an average of 537,000 barrels, far above the 490,000 from the previous month. 10,000 barrels was also trucked to Jordan per day.

Unfortunately for Iraq, the increased production did not pay off as much as it could. After hitting $114.26 a barrel in April, prices for Iraqi crude have dropped to $108 in May, and $105 in June. In May, that didn’t have an affect when Iraq earned $7.4 million. In June however, profits went down to $7.1 billion. After consistently rising due to the unrest in the Arab world, the international oil market is finally cooling off. Prices are still over $100 a barrel, which means Iraq will still make large profits, but the record money they’ve been bringing in will eventually end even if production stays high.

Overall, three factors have benefited Iraq’s Oil Ministry this year. First, foreign oil companies are ramping up production at over a dozen oil fields they won contracts for in 2009. Second, Baghdad has reached an agreement with Kurdistan to allow it to export once again, bringing on line two more fields for foreign sales. Third, world prices for petroleum have dramatically gone up due to the Arab Spring. Each of these also pose possible challenges for the country. As stated before, exports can only grow so much due to the lack of infrastructure. Iraq is currently working on new ports and pipelines, but there are questions about how much capacity it can actually add. The problems with Kurdistan are not completely worked out as the Finance Ministry is only paying companies there for their costs, not profits, and they will not accept that indefinitely. Finally, international prices for a barrel of crude are already declining, which means that once Iraq’s new infrastructure is ready to operate, it may miss out on this boom. Iraq therefore needs to produce as much as it can right now to bring in as much money as possible, because the market may not be as favorable in the future.

Iraq Oil Production And Profits Jan. 2010-June 2011 

Month
Total Production
(Mil/Bar)
Avg. Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
Avg. Price Per Barrel
Revenue
(Mil)
Jan. 10
59.7
1.92
$73.97
$4.441
Feb.
57.9
2.05
$73.04
$4.229
Mar.
57.1
1.84
$76.20
$4.351
Apr.
53.0
1.80
$79.66
$4.222
May
58.7
1.88
$73.85
$4.335
Jun.
54.7
1.86
$71.10
$3.889
Jul.
56.3
1.82
$71.21
$4.009
Aug.
55.4
1.82
$71.43
$3.957
Sep.
60.6
2.02
$73.07
$4.428
Oct.
58.7
1.91
$77.10
$4.526
Nov.
57.3
1.92
$80.59
$4.618
Dec.
60.5
1.95
$86.31
$5.222
Jan. 11
67.0
2.16
$90.78
$6.082
Feb.
61
2.20
$98.44
$6+
Mar.
66.9
2.15
$107.13
$7.167
Apr.
64.2
2.14
$114.26
$7.342
May
N/A
2.22
$108
$7.4
Jun.
N/A
2.27
$105
$7.1



SOURCES

Ajrash, Kadhim and Razzouk, Nayla, “Iraq June Oil Exports Rise to Post-2003 Record, Somo Chief Says,” Bloomberg, 7/5/11

Bloomberg, “Iraq Exports Hit 2.23 Million bpd in May,” Iraq Business News, 6/1/11

El Gamal, Rania, “UPDATE 2-Iraq sees oil output at 3 mln bpd by year-end,” Reuters, 6/4/11

Al-Wannan, Jaafar, “Parliamentary committee: Oil exports will not exceed 5m bpd by 2013,” AK News, 6/25/11

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Iraq’s Sadr Backs Off Threat Of Reviving Mahdi Army

In April 2011, Sadrists held a huge rally in Baghdad. A spokesman read a statement to the crowd from Moqtada al-Sadr saying that he would bring back the Mahdi Army if U.S. troops stayed past their deadline to withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year. The threat was part of Sadr’s effort to put pressure upon Washington to follow through with its exit strategy. Sadr’s tactics backfired as it angered other Iraqi parties, and now he claims he will not revive his militia.

On July 10, a statement was posted on a Sadr website that the Mahdi Army would not return. The release said they had studied the affects of their parade in Baghdad in May, which featured unarmed fighters, and decided that it was not the right time to end the freeze on the militia. Sadr disbanded the Mahdi Army in March 2008. The march was meant to send a message to the United States that the Sadr Trend was ready and willing to oppose them if they stayed past the end of 2011, but instead it was received badly by some of the country’s political parties. The movement also said it was not responsible for any clashes that might involve individual Sadrists, which might have been a reference to a June 20 shootout between members of the Sadr movement and a breakaway group led by Abu Dura in Baghdad. This was a dramatic change for Sadr who had been making ever more menacing remarks about using force if the Americans stayed in Iraq.
Sadr's April rally in Baghdad (Reuters)
The threat to revive the Mahdi Army was first aired on April 9. That was the 8th anniversary of the fall of Saddam Hussein, and the Sadr movement held a rally in Baghdad to commemorate the date. A Sadrist spokesman read a speech at the event, which said that the Trend would resist the Americans if they stayed with both peaceful protests and armed resistance. This came the day after Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he wanted Baghdad to agree upon a troop extension. The next day a Sadr leader remarked that the Promised Day Brigades, the armed faction of the movement, continued to carry out attacks upon U.S. troops. This was the opening salvo in a lobbying effort by Moqtada to convince the Americans that they should not stay in the country. Sadr wanted to publicly show the strength of his followers through his assembly in Baghdad, while also reminding Washington that violence could increase in Iraq if its troops remained past 2011.
Sadr's May march through Baghdad (Agence France Presse)
Sadr’s campaign continued into the next month. On May 26, the Sadrists held a march through Baghdad to protest against the U.S. presence. The Iraqi security forces counted 35,000 participants, the press said 70,000, while the Sadr Trend claimed 100,000. They waved Iraqi flags, chanted “No, no, America!”, walked over U.S., Israeli, and British flags painted on the street, and marched in military order. While Washington was the intended target, it actually had unintended domestic effects. First, a spokesman for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law list, as well as members of Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement complained that the march was a challenge to the authority of the state. Second, the premier was deeply angered. Shatt al-Arab ran a story saying that Maliki sent letters to Iraq’s political parties and to Tehran and Qom in Iran as well, stating that he had tried to accommodate the Sadrists by giving them ministries and integrated some of his followers into the security forces, but threatening to bring back his militia had crossed a redline. While the Mahdi Army was active it was a threat not only to the U.S., but to Sunnis that they expelled from Baghdad and other sections of the country, other parties like its rival the Supreme Islamic Iraqi party, the Shiite population, which it ended up exploiting, and the government. Maliki had also made his mark as a strong leader by cracking down on the Sadrists in 2008, and he along with others did not want to see the militia return to prominence again.

In June, the rhetoric became more inflamed. Members of the Mahdi Army claimed that they would be willing to carry out suicide attacks upon the Americans if they were still in the country in 2012. A Sadrist official later said that Moqtada had not condoned these types of attacks. Soon after, Sadr’s Promised Day Brigades claimed responsibility for ten mortar and rocket attacks upon U.S. bases in Baghdad, Ninewa, Diyala, Tamim, Basra, Maysan, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna provinces. It also said that it had set off roadside bombs against U.S. patrols, and to have killed and wounded U.S. soldiers in these operations. That same day, a Sadrist parliamentarian told the press that these attacks were meant to pressure the Americans to leave. The message was clear, the Sadrists were militarily opposing the Americans right now, and that would increase in intensity if they were given a troop extension. They also wanted to claim that they were responsible for the U.S. departure.

After three months of fiery words and deeds, Sadr has now backtracked. His rallies, threats about the Mahdi Army, and attacks by the Promised Day Brigades were meant to intimidate the Americans, and make them leave by the end of the year. Instead, he angered Maliki, the Iraqi National Movement, and others who were opposed to seeing militiamen back on the streets of Iraq. Sadr has always tried to straddle the line between being a militia leader and man of the street on the one hand, and being a politician on the other. In the previous Maliki administration, Sadr failed at this attempt when he ended dropping out of the government, and was then faced with an assault by the Americans during the Surge, and then the prime minister himself. Sadr tried again in the 2009 provincial election, and then the 2010 parliamentary voting. He is back to having control over several governorates, and was the major reason why Maliki returned for a second term. Talking about the Mahdi Army could threaten all of that, and was probably the main reason why he retreated from his militant talk.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraq: Thousands Rally Against U.S. Troops,” Associated Press, 5/26/11

Agence France Presse, “Sadr supporters ready for attacks on US troops,” 6/25/11

Alsumaria, “Mehdi Army Promised Day Brigade claims responsibility for missile attacks on US bases,” 6/27/11

Arango, Tim, “Spike in U.S. Deaths in Iraq Raises Worries,” New York Times, 6/26/11

Craig, Tim, “Sunni fears grow over Sadr’s resurgence,” Washington Post, 6/2/11

Dar Al-Hayat, Alsumaria, “Sadrist Militia Marches Unarmed In Baghdad, Challenging Al-Maliki’s Government,” MEMRI Blog, 5/27/11

Jakes, Lara, “Shiite militias step up Iraq attacks on US troops,” Associated Press, 6/30/11

Karim, Ammar, “Iraqi cleric Sadr will not revive anti-US militia,” Agence France Presse, 7/10/11

Latif, Nizar, “Sadrists stage massive rally to demand US troops leave Iraq on schedule,” The National, 5/27/11

The National Staff, “Iraqis fear return of the Mahdi Army,” The National, 4/13/11

New Sabah, Al Jewar, “Muqtada al-Sadr Escalates Threats Against U.S.,” MEMRI Blog, 4/12/11

Ramzi, Kholoud, “mahdi army parade raises further questions, no answers, on us troops,” Niqash, 6/1/11

Reuters, “Iraq cleric pursues U.S. troop ban in strongholds,” 6/30/11

Saadi, Ahmed, “Maliki is upset at the Sadrist movement and threatening new targeting of the Mahdi Army,” Shatt al-Arab, 5/26/11

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Iraq’s Mehdi Army faces splits, wary of return to war,” Reuters, 6/16/11

Al Sharqiya Television, “Sadrists freeze the number of affiliated organizations,” 7/10/11

Shat News, Al-Sabah, “Al-Maliki Responds To Al-Sadr’s Muscle-Flexing Last Week,” MEMRI Blog, 5/31/11

Al-Wannan, Jafaar, “Mahdi Army to be disbanded on US departure,” AK News, 6/27/11

Monday, July 11, 2011

How Iran Used Explosively Formed Projectiles (EFPs) To Influence Events In Iraq

On July 7, 2011, two more U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq. They died just outside their base at Camp Victory, Baghdad at the hands of an Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP). EFPs were first introduced into Iraq in 2005 by Iran, utilizing Iraqis and smuggling routes they had relationships with dating back to the 1980s. The EFP is one of the deadliest weapons encountered during the war. Tehran began supplying them to militants as part of its policy to make the Americans pay for the invasion of Iraq, and to eventually force them to leave.
An EFP (Wikipedia)

Iran began shipping EFPs to Iraq at the beginning of 2005. EFPs are different from regular roadside bombs, which rely upon an explosive force to cause damage. Instead, the EFP sets off a charge behind a series of plates, which are then turned into slugs that are specifically designed to penetrate armor. They were first encountered just after the January elections. In May, they started being noted in the press when one killed ten British soldiers in Basra. They would soon show up across southern Iraq, and then the rest of the country by the end of the year. At the time, Tehran was expanding its military operations in Iraq. Immediately after the 2003 invasion, it had relied upon its Iranian Revolutionary Guards, intelligence agents, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and its Badr Brigade to collect intelligence on the Coalition forces, carry out sabotage attacks, and assassinate Baathists and officials associated with the Iran-Iraq War. By 2005 however, Iran had decided to confront the occupation more directly, and began reaching out to Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and its various breakaway groups, which would later become known as Special Groups. Providing them with EFPs was part of this stepped up military campaign.

In the summer and fall of 2005, the Coalition began publicly complaining about Iranian assistance to militants, and especially about EFPs. In June, the Pentagon claimed Iran was sending EFPs into Iraq. (1) The next month, a large shipment of the devices was captured in Diyala. The Pentagon then claimed that the weapon was behind the May death of the ten British soldiers in Basra. That led U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalizad and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to tell the press that Tehran was interfering in Iraq. The U.S. military also found two high-quality videos of how to build EFPs, which were just like CDs captured by Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon. That set off speculation by the Americans that the Lebanese group was working within Iraq, which they had been since 2003. In September, Sadrist cleric, and breakaway Mahdi Army commander Sheikh Ahmad Majid al-Fartusi was arrested for carrying out attacks upon the British in Basra, which included EFPs. By October, the English were also chiming in, accusing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah of providing EFPs to the Mahdi Army in southern Iraq. Tehran denied any involvement at that time, hoping to hide its decision to try to force the Coalition out of Iraq by supporting a variety of Shiite militant groups.
EFP cache found by U.S. troops (Wired)
The man delivering EFPs to Iraq was Abu Sheibani. He was a former commander in the Badr Brigade, who was in charge of their operations in Baghdad during the 1990s. In 2005, he had around 280 men under his command broken up into 17 cells. Some of them had received training in Lebanon from Hezbollah. They were not only responsible for shipping weapons to Iraq, but for sending Iraqis to Iran for training. Sheibani also conducting some attacks upon Coalition forces himself. He was told by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to contact as many groups as possible that were opposed to the occupation, and get them to carry out attacks in return for armaments. At its height, there were EFP cells stretching from Basra in the south to Kirkuk in the north where Shiite Turkmen and Arabs were used. Sheibani was eventually put on a waned list by Baghdad, and he ended up fleeing to Iran. While Sadr and his Mahdi Army were usually blamed for carrying out attacks upon the Coalition, it was actually older Badr Brigade elements that were arming them. The Badr Brigade was created by Iran during the Iran-Iraq War as part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and fought against Saddam Hussein. They were therefore more trusted than Sadr or any of his militiamen, who Tehran considered unpredictable, and it was they who early on were delivering weapons into Iraq.
Some of the supply lines used by Iran to ship weapons into Iraq that had been used since the 1980s
Sheibani’s network relied upon old smuggling routes, which Iran and anti-Saddam Iraqis had been using since the 1980s. These originated in Iran, and went to Basra and Maysan in southern Iraq, and Diyala in the east. They then stretched out to other parts of the country such as Kut in Wasit, Qurnah in Basra, Hillah in Babil, Diwaniya in Qadisiyah, Samawa in Muthanna, and Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar. Trucks carrying legitimate Iranian imports were usually used to ship in the weapons, and most of the EFPs ended up in Sadr City, Baghdad. These same routes had been used by Iran throughout the 1980s and 1990s to support Shiite parties like the Supreme Council and the Dawa Party that opposed Saddam Hussein. When Tehran decided to oppose the U.S. occupation, they used many of the same people and the same trails they had been using for the last twenty years.

Behind Sheibani was the Revolutionary Guards Qods Force’s Ramazan Corps. The Corps was created in the mid-1990s to coordinate its anti-Iraqi operations. It ran three camps along the border in Ahvaz, Khorramshahr, and Nasr. By the time of the U.S. invasion, it had three commands as well, the Nasr Command, which was in charge of Kurdistan and Diyala, the Zafar Command that dealt with Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Babil, Wasit, and parts of Diyala, and the Fajr Command that operated in Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Muthanna. With most of this infrastructure in place for two decades, it was easy for Tehran to begin supplying EFPs and other means of assistance to militants after the 2003 invasion.

In 2006, the use of EFPs was increasing, and so were the casualties. From January to December EFP incidents increased 150%, and accounted for 30% of U.S. casualties by the last quarter of the year. In June, the British found an EFP factory in Majar al-Kabir, Basra. In November another factory was discovered by the Americans in Baghdad. It was apparent that Iran, Hezbollah, and the Sheibani network had not only developed a group of militiamen willing to carry out operations against the Coalition, but also taught them how to build their own EFPs so that they were not completely reliant upon supplies from Tehran.

As Washington sent in extra troops and changed tactics with the Surge of 2007, Tehran also upped its opposition to America’s plans. In January, EFPs only made up 2.5% of all IED attacks within Iraq. They then reached a high in July with 36 incidents, leading to 23 of the 69 U.S. casualties that month. Almost all of these occurred in Baghdad, which accounted for 66.9% of the 623 EFP attacks for the year. The capital was the center of operations for the Surge, so it should have been no surprise that most EFPs were deployed there as Tehran tried to make the U.S. pay for its troop increase.

In the summer, the use of EFPs suddenly dived. From July to October 2007, there were 50% less attacks using the devices. This was part of a larger cut back in operations by Special Groups. The cause of the decrease was Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who told Iran that it needed to stop its weapons shipments because they were not only leading to more American casualties, but also Shiite on Shiite violence. He was referring to the Badr Brigade and the Mahdi Army, which were carrying on a running war against each other across southern Iraq. By December, Iraq’s Foreign Minister claimed that Iran was helping with the security situation. Tehran used the flow of weapons and money to militants as a way to control them. When the Surge started at the beginning of 2007, they vastly increased the number of EFPs heading to Iraq. By the middle of the year, when these weapons were being used by Iran’s allies against each other, it rolled back some of its support in order to put a damper on the internecine violence.

This policy continued until 2009. EFP attacks dropped 60-80% to around 20 by July 2008 for example. In the second half of the year, Iran was focusing upon the January 2009 provincial elections. Iraqi politics was always Tehran’s main priority, and it would consistently cut back its military policy when an important date such as the voting was approaching. There were thus fewer arms flowing into Iraq until all the negotiations over forming local governments were completed in 2009.

In 2010, Iran’s focus changed again. Under the Status of Forces Agreement, the United States was to withdraw all of its troops by the end of 2011. Iran wanted to take responsibility for this pull out, so it began once again to supply EFPs and other armaments to its Shiite allies. As a sign of that, it was reported in September that Abu Sheibani was returning to Iraq. He was allegedly sent back by to organize forces to attack the Americans as they prepared to leave. It was also noted that he joined the League of the Righteous, a Sadrist breakaway group. By June 2011, the U.S. was publicly complaining about EFPs, Special Groups, and Iranian interference all over again, topped off by retiring Secretary of Defense Robert Gates accusing Iran of supplying armaments, just as his predecessor Rumsfeld had done six years before. This time, Iran’s role is more out in the open as it wants everyone to know that it is forcing the Americans out of Iraq. That has led to new highs in American casualties, with 14 soldiers killed by Special Groups in June, and two more in July. Just like in 2005, Iran is using its most effective weapon the EFP to carry out its military plans in Iraq.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 was seen as both a challenge and an opportunity by Iran. On the one hand, U.S. forces were just on its border, and the Bush administration was making threatening statements about it being next. On the other, Tehran’s greatest threat, Saddam was overthrown, and friendly Shiite and Kurdish parties swept in on the coattails of the Coalition, and would eventually take control of the government. When that was guaranteed after the 2005 elections, Iran began focusing upon making the U.S. and its allies pay for occupying Iraq. The EFP was at the forefront of that strategy, as Sheibani and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards supplied them to almost any militant willing to use them. When political issues became more important like making peace between Shiite parties in 2007 and the provincial elections in 2009, Iran would ratchet back the flow of weapons. When 2010 rolled around and a withdrawal date was set for U.S. forces, Tehran again began focusing upon feeding EFPs to Special Groups. That is the current situation in Iraq, and the reason why American casualties are going up. When the fate of American troops are finally decided upon by Baghdad, Iran will likely return to its political and economic focus, and the flow of EFPs will go down, until they are needed once again to prove a point by Tehran that it must be considered when making any policy choices about Iraq.

FOOTNOTES

1. Mroue, Bassem, “Car bomber kills 7, injures 90,” San Francisco Chronicle, 8/10/05

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