Iraq’s Shiite Parties Still No Closer To Forming New Government

Prime Minister Maliki and Former Premier Allawi Unite And Divide The Shiite Parties

Iraq’s two main Shiite parties, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law and the Sadrist-Supreme Council led Iraqi National Alliance have joined together into the National Alliance coalition, but they are no closer to forming a government now than in March when the elections were originally held. The problem is only one thing unites them, opposition to Iyad Allawi becoming prime minister again, while Maliki remaining in power is what divides them.

The Shiite lists are determined to hold onto the premiership, which is why they are against Iyad Allawi. In June Allawi and Maliki finally met, three months after the elections, but nothing came of it despite the two having many ideological similarities about nationalism and the power of the central government. The meeting turned out to be nothing more than a photo opportunity, and Maliki even allegedly told Allawi that he had no chance to become prime minister again. A member of Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement later said that its attempt to merge with State of Law was blocked by the National Alliance and the Kurds.

The Shiite coalition itself however, remains weak and divided over who should be the next prime minister. Maliki is determined to hold onto his office, but is opposed by both the Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). The two are pushing the negotiations with State of Law to the limit as a result. They demanded a Wise Men committee to determine the coalition’s candidate, but that has now been dropped. The National Alliance then asked that there be limits placed on the prime minister’s power through three deputy prime ministers or advisers from each party to the premier. Maliki agreed to those provisions, but that led nowhere. That leaves SIIC head Ammar Hakim’s calls for a round table of all the major parties in the new parliament to form a new government, or for the coalition to come up with several candidates which the legislature would then vote on. Both ideas are currently being rejected by State of Law. Not only that, but the Sadrists and Supreme Council can’t agree on their own nominees either. The Sadrists support former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, while the SIIC is nominating Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, who Sadr opposes. The result of all these disputes is extreme deadlock until Maliki is outmaneuvered or gives up his post. The National Alliance though, believes that it is gaining the upper hand. They think that the continued terrorist attacks and the protests over the lack of electricity are weakening Maliki.

There are in fact continuing rumors that State of Law is either going to give up on Maliki or that he will step aside if his demands are met. For example, Kuwaiti newspapers reported that Maliki’s list has come up with some alternative candidates. Those are Habib al-Sadr, the former director of the government-run Iraqi Media Network, Ali Dabbagh, Maliki’s spokesman, Khudayr al-Khuzai, the Minister of Education, and Sharwan al-Waili, the Minister for National Security. State of Law still publicly maintains that they have no other candidate besides Maliki. Asharq Al-Awsat ran a story that claimed Maliki was willing to step down if he, his family, and his Dawa Party were given immunity from any investigations or criminal cases. Maliki’s son for example is the head of the government procurement office, and has amassed a large fortune, and various properties in foreign countries while in office. The National Alliance has allegedly rejected this offer.

The Shiite coalition has successfully isolated Allawi, but is divided itself. State of Law and the National Alliance are only a few seats shy of the 163 needed to form a government. Together they have shut out Allawi’s National Movement from gaining new allies to put together its own ruling coalition. The issue of who the Shiite parties will nominate for prime minister, remains the main sticking point. The National Alliance has made demand after demand of State of Law, some of which Maliki has agreed to, some he has not, but the two sides are no closer to coming up with the next premier. In fact, these talks are just meant to wear Maliki down, and split him from his list so that they eventually drop him. Even if the National Alliance were successful at that, the divisions within that list don’t point to a breakthrough happening soon afterward. Iraqi politics are thus at a standstill, just as it has been at since March. 

SOURCES

AK News, “ISCI leader stresses round table talks best way to agree on forming govt,” 6/23/10

Asharq Al-Awsat, “Coalition leaders al-Hakim told: Propagation condition of the waiver al-Maliki not to sue,” 6/25/10

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Al-Jasim, Huda, “Iraq: Major Disputes within the National Alliance,” Asharq Alawsat, 6/16/10

MEMRI Staff, “Divisions among Shi’a Could Prolong Discussion to Form a New Government,” MEMRI Blog, 6/25/10

Al-Rafidayn, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, “Iraqi PM Al-Maliki Opens Verbal Fire In All Directions,” MEMRI Blog, 6/22/10

Roads To Iraq, “Allawi, Maliki and the political message of the meeting,” 6/13/10
- “The revolution of electricity in the southern provinces topples the Minister, eyes on Maliki, while new names of candidates emerged,” 6/22/10

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Iraq’s Shi’ite-led groups edge closer to government,” Reuters, 6/16/10

Asharq Al-Awsat, “Coalition leaders al-Hakim told: Propagation condition of the waiver al-Maliki not to sue,” 6/25/10

Al-Sharq al-Awsat, “Al-Hakim: No Agreement On Horizon With Al-Maliki Over Premiership,” MEMRI Blog, 6/11/10

Wasat online, “Iranian Officials Expressed Reservations About Allawi Becoming Prime Minister,” MEMRI Blog, 6/23/10