Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Iraq’s Oil Revenue Down $1 Bil in August 2015


Iraq experienced a large drop in the price for its crude in August 2015. That resulted in a $1 billion decrease in its revenue. On top of all that its exports dipped a bit as well. That means the country will continue to face budgetary and deficit problems into the foreseeable future.

In August Iraq exported an average of 3.079 million barrels a day. That was down from July’s 3.104 million, June 3.187 million, and May’s 3.145 million. The main cause was the breakdown in the budget deal between Baghdad and Irbil. Under that agreement the Kurds were to export oil for the central government and in return receive its 17% of the national budget. During the summer it broke down as both sides accused each other of not fulfilling their obligations. Last month the Kurds actually appeared to raise their foreign sales from around 41,000 barrels a day in July to approximately 50,900 in August. Still, Basra shipments were down from 3.064 million in July to 3.021 million in August causing the overall decline.

The bigger issue was the fact that oil prices fell around 20%. From April to July Iraqi crude was going for over $50 per barrel such as in July when it went for $50.99. In August however, it only sold for $40.59. That caused revenues to drop from $4.908 billion in July to $3.874 billion in August. That puts added pressure upon the budget as the government has failed to reach any of the export or revenue marks set in that document. It’s estimated that the country has a $21.4 billion deficit, which has led it to borrow $1.7 billion from the World Bank and $833 million from the International Monetary Fund. It needs far more money however, and Baghdad had plans to float $7 billion in bonds as well.

Iraq Oil Exports & Revenues 2014-15
Month
Avg.
Exports
Avg. Price
Per Barrel
Earnings
(Bil)
Jan. 14
2.228
$102.37
$7.074
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$8.001
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.509
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.582
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.470
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.742
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$6.916
Oct
2.432
$81.12
$6.120
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.25
Dec
2.941
$56.59
$5.161
2014 Avg.
2.51
$92.39
$7.013
Jan
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.98
$48.24
$4.457
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.104
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.874

2015 Oil Exports From Basra
Jan 2.39 mil/bar/day
Feb 2.29 mil/bar/day
Mar 2.71 mil/bar/day
Apr 2.62 mil/bar/day
May 2.69 mil/bar/day
Jun 3.022 mil/bar/day
Jul 3.064 mil/bar/day
Aug 3.021 mil/bar/day

2015 Oil Exports By Kurds
Jan 153,000 bar/day
Feb 306,000 bar/day
Mar 268,000 bar/day
Apr 450,000 bar/day
May 451,000 bar/day
Jun 164,733 bar/day
Jul 41,000 bar/day
Aug 50,900 bar/day

SOURCES

eKurd, “Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief – September 4, 2015,” 9/4/15

Lando, Ben, Osgood, Patrick, “Oil exports and revenues drop in August,” Iraq Oil Report, 9/1/15

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Iraq’s economy, beaten by Islamic State war and low oil prices, struggle amid rising protests,” Associated Press, 8/18/15

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