Violence Unchanged Last 5 Weeks In Iraq

For the last five weeks the number of attacks have remained relatively stable in Iraq. This is another sign that the war in Iraq has largely stabilized and become deadlocked. The government is on the offensive in several parts of Anbar province along with Salahaddin, but showing mixed results, while bombings continue unabated in Baghdad. The rest of the country remained relatively quite.

Musings On Iraq counted 122 security incidents from September 15-21, 2015. That was lower than the previous weeks, which witnessed 144 attacks September 8-14, 139 from September 1-7, 136 from August 22-28, and 135 from August 15-21. Baghdad led the country with 50 attacks, followed by 21 in Salahaddin, 18 in Anbar, 16 in Ninewa, 8 in Kirkuk, 5 in Diyala, 3 in Babil, and one each in Kurdistan and Wasit.

There were 323 deaths and 488 wounded reported in the press during the week. That broke down to 2 Sahwa, 20 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 55 fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and 246 civilians killed, and 2 Hashd al-Shaabi, 5 Sahwa, 44 ISF, and 437 civilians injured. Baghdad had the most fatalities with 88. After that there were 82 in Salahaddin, 55 in Kurdistan, 45 in Ninewa, 30 in Anbar, 9 in Diyala, 6 in Babil, and 4 each in Kirkuk and Wasit. Overall casualties have crept up slightly from 699 August 15-21, to 638 August 22-28, to 637 September 1-7, to 762 September 8-14, and 811 September 15-21. Since losses are so underreported due to government silence it’s impossible to tell whether this was a real increase or just better coverage.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	189	466	464
Jan 8-14	172	733	518
Jan 15-21	189	403	528
Jan 22-28	195	492	899
Jan 29-31	91	306	568
JAN	836	2,400	2,977
Feb 1-7	155	408	688
Feb 8-14	177	443	566
Feb 15-21	169	592	383
Feb 22-28	171	391	705
FEB	672	1,834	2,342
Mar 1-7	176	373	595
Mar 8-14	137	398	656
Mar 15-21	146	1,304	505
Mar 22-28	174	273	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	705	2,553 + 4	2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7	127	218	422
Apr 8-14	137	676	542
Apr 15-21	172	729	717
Apr 22-28	163	497	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	649	2,282	2,346
May 1-7	154	627	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,417 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012
Jul 1-7	161	435	719
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	453 + 8	603
JUL	608	2,166	3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	132	726	645
Aug 15-21	135	345	354
Aug 22-28	136	342	296
Aug 29-31	59	112 + 5	169
AUG	616	2,180 + 760	1,762
Sep 1-7	139	285	352
Sep 8-14	144	368	394
Sep 15-21	122	323	488

Violence In Iraq Sep 2015 by Province

Provinces	Sep 1-7	Sep 8-14
Anbar	25 Incidents 52 Killed: 5 Civilians, 10 Hashd, 13 ISF, 24 Sahwa 45 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 10 Sahwa, 12 ISF, 15 Hashd 10 Shootings 4 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 19 Suicide Bombers Killed 20 Car Bombs Destroyed	24 Incidents 29 Killed: 4 Civilians, 8 Hashd, 17 ISF 57 Wounded: 13 Hashd, 19 ISF, 25 Civilians 10 Shootings 2 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 4 Suicide Bombers killed 5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 13 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 5 wounded: 5 Civilians 1 IED	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 14 Wounded: 4 ISF, 10 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs
Baghdad	58 Incidents 73 Killed: 2 ISF, 71 Civilians 199 Wounded: 8 ISF, 191 Civilians 11 Shootings 28 IEDs 8 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 2 Car Bombs Destroyed	57 Incidents 65 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 58 Civilians 154 Wounded: 14 ISF, 140 Civilians 14 Shootings 22 IEDs 10 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb 2 Grenades
Basra	-	3 Incidents 1 Wounded: 1 ISF 2 IEDs 1 Sound Bomb
Diyala	8 Incidents 14 Killed: 5 ISF, 9 Civilians 24 Wounded: 1 ISF, 23 Civilians 4 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar	12 Incidents 16 Killed: 3 Hashd, 4 ISF, 9 Civilians 20 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 3 Hashd, 15 Civilians 5 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Car Bomb
Karbala	1 Incident 2 Sound Bombs	1 Incident 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Wounded: 1 Hashd 2 Shootings 2 Car Bombs Destroyed	6 Incidents 29 Killed: 9 Civilians, 20 Peshmerga 121 Wounded: 6 Civilians, 115 Peshmerga 2 Shootings 3 IEDs
KRG	-	2 Incidents 95 Killed: 95 PKK 2 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	21 Incidents 116 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 108 Civilians 22 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 20 Civilians 10 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Rocket 1 Mortar	13 Incidents 104 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 32 ISF, 64 Civilians 4 Shootings 1 IED 1 Mortar
Qadisiyah	1 Incident	-
Salahaddin	19 Incidents 27 Killed: 6 ISF, 21 Civilians 56 Wounded: 21 ISF, 35 Civilians 7 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Mortar 12 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed	21 Incidents 26 Killed: 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians, 11 ISF 27 Wounded: 7 Hashd, 9 ISF, 11 Civilians 11 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Provinces	Sep 1-7
Anbar	18 Incidents 30 Killed: 4 ISF, 26 Civilians 56 Wounded: 6 ISF, 50 Civilians 9 Shootings 1 IED 1 Rockets 2 Mortars 3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	3 Incidents 6 Killed: 6 Civilians 19 Wounded: 19 Civilians 3 IEDs
Baghdad	50 Incidents 88 Killed: 2 Sahwa, 6 ISF, 80 Civilians 303 Wounded: 5 Sahwa, 9 ISF, 289 Civilians 13 Shootings 19 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Car Bombs 2 Rockets 2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Diyala	5 Incidents 9 Killed: 1 ISF, 8 Civilians 11 Wounded: 2 ISF, 9 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Motorcycle Bombs Dismantled 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
KRG	1 Incident 55 Killed: 55 PKK 1 Turkish Air Raid
Kirkuk	8 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 3 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 2 Hashd 2 Shootings 1 Rocket
Ninewa	16 Incidents 45 Killed: 5 ISF, 40 Civilians 9 Shootings 21 IEDs 1 Rocket
Salahaddin	21 Incidents 82 Killed: 4 ISF, 78 Civilians 96 Wounded: 27 ISF, 69 Civilians 15 Shootings 4 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Mortars 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Wasit	1 incident 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 1 Shooting

 

The Anbar offensive that started on July 13 continued to show mixed results. The government forces are stuck in the rut of clearing towns and then having to go back into them again and again, something that the current campaign as supposed to solve, but hasn’t. The third week of September was a perfect example. On September 13 Husaiba that is to the east of Ramadi was declared cleared for the fifth time, and then a new operation started on September 15. The joint forces have been stuck on East Husaiba as well, which was said to be freed on August 30 for the third time, and then the sixth operation there started on September 16. September 17 the joint forces went back to Shihabi in the Fallujah area after it was cleared on July 14. September 17 the sixth operation since the start of August began in Khalidiya Island, which is in between Ramadi and Fallujah. The government forces also had to go back into southern Ramadi’s Tamim neighborhood on September 18, which was freed back on July 30, 5 Kilo that is right outside of the city on September 19 after it was freed a month before, and Humaira also south of Ramadi on September 19 when it was said to be cleared on August 8. The joint forces have also been drawn into sweeps through the Haditha district during the week, which is in western Anbar, and Amiriya Fallujah in the east, while continuing with its attempt to re-take the Garma area.

So far the Anbar offensive has suffered from three major shortcomings. First, there is a massive manpower shortage. After Ramadi fell in May the Hashd complained that they were being kept out of the province, and that if they were allowed in they would rectify the situation. Unfortunately the Hashd have not committed many fighters. There are approximately 10,000 total men focused upon Ramadi and Fallujah compared to 30,000 that took Tikrit. Part of the reason for the shortage is the fact that the government continues to give into diversionary attacks by the Islamic State in other parts of Anbar and Baiji in Salahaddin, which spreads out its forces. The third issue is the lack of unity of command. Many Hashd forces act independently of Baghdad. For instance, the government wanted to take Ramadi after it fell, but then IS posted a video of an execution of a soldier from Sadr City in Fallujah, and the Hashd unilaterally decided to take that area instead. Now the joint forces are spread out across the entire corridor between the two cities. That is going to drag out the operation for several more weeks and even months when a quick strike on Ramadi back in May might have been able to re-take it.

Security Operations In Anbar Sep 15-21, 2015

Husaiba	East Husaiba	Shihabi	Khalidiya Island	Ramadi, Tamim
7/13/15 center cleared	7/19/15 operation	7/14/15 cleared	8/4/15 operation	7/26/15 operation
7/18/15 center reached	7/21/15 cleared	9/17/15 operation	8/12/15 operation	7/30/15 cleared
7/19/15cleared	7/26/15 operation		8/16/15 operation	9/18/15 operation
7/27/15 cleared	8/2/15 operation		8/29/15 operation
7/29/15 operation	8/6/15 cleared		9/5/15 operation
8/16/15 operation	8/10/15 operation		9/17/15 operation
8/17/15 cleared	8/25/15 operation
8/31/15 operation	8/30/15 cleared
9/10/15 operation	9/16/15 operation
9/13/15 center cleared
9/15/15 operation

5 Kilo	Humaira	Albu Hayat	Haditha	Amiriya Fallujah
7/20/15 operation	7/14/15 cleared	7/21/15 operation	7/21/15 operation	8/20/15 operation
7/22/15 cleared	8/2/15 operation	9/19/15 operation	7/30/15 operation	9/16/15 operation
8/19/15 operation	8/8/15 cleared		8/22/15 operation
9/19/15 cleared	9/19/15 cleared		9/21/15 operation

Shootings and bombings continued throughout Baghdad. There were 15 incidents in the east, 14 in the south, 10 in the north, 5 in the center, and 4 in the west. That included three car bombs, one in the south and two in the east, and three suicide bombers, one in the center, and two in the west. IEDs and sticky bombs were the main form of violence.

Attacks In Baghdad Sep 15-21, 2015

Center: 5 – 1 Attempted Kidnapping, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting, 1 Suicide Bomber, 1 IED

East: 14 – 2 Car Bombs, 4 Kidnappings, 4 Shootings, 4 IEDs

Outer East: 1 – 1 IED

North: 5 – 1 Rocket, 2 Shootings, 2 Sticky Bombs

Outer North: 5 – 1 Shooting, 4 IEDs

South: 8 – 1 Car Bomb, 3 Shootings, 4 IEDs

Outer South: 6 – 1 Shooting, 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 IEDs

West: 3 – 1 Rocket, 2 Suicide Bombers

Outer West: 1 – 1 IED

Unknown: 2 – 1 Shooting, 1 IED

Diyala had very few incidents during the third week of September, with just five, but included another attempted car bomb. As part of IS’s new car bomb campaign it has tried to set off a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at least once a week in the province. Otherwise, IS is using Diyala to carry out attacks upon eastern Baghdad.

Turkey conducted another wave of air strikes against Kurdistan. On September 15 Ankara claimed to have killed 55 PKK fighters as a result.

There were more executions in Ninewa. The Islamic State killed 45 people in Mosul, Qayara, and Hamam al-Alil during the week. That included an imam, a former candidate, two journalists, four mayors, and five police. IS also blew up 21 homes belonging to Christians on the Ninewa Plains, and made one attack upon the Kurds in the Sinjar district.

The fighting in Salahaddin’s Baiji district remains inconclusive. Propaganda is so heavy that progress is very difficult to discern there. Politicians, the security forces, and the different elements of the Hashd all make their own separate announcements about Baiji, which are often contradictory. That’s how 80% of Baiji can be declared freed in the middle of August and then a few days later it goes down to 50% and then up to 60% and then 70% in two days by the middle of September. Similar numbers have been given for the Baiji Refinery going from 70% controlled in the middle of August, down to 50% and then up to 60% on September 18. The government forces have also refocused upon the IS stronghold of Siniya, which is just outside of Baiji. On September 1, 5 and 19 the town was said to be surrounded, and then miraculously cleared in between all that even though fighting is still going on there. Again, the lack of unity of command causes all of this confusion about what is actually going on in the province not to mention that the district has no strategic value anymore. Instead, IS is using it to hold down government forces and distract from Anbar.

Security Operations Baiji District May-Sep 2015

Baiji	Baiji Refinery	Siniya
5/7/15 Operation	5/22/15 cleared	5/2/15 cleared
5/21/15 66% cleared	5/30/15 outskirts cleared	5/31/15 cleared
5/30/15 central Baiji entered	6/30/15 50% cleared	6/11/15 operation
6/10/15 60% cleared	7/6/15 40% cleared	8/11/15 operation
6/22/15 80% of Baiji district cleared	7/23/15 80% cleared	8/22/15 reached
6/29/15 operation	7/25/15 40% cleared	8/28/15 cleared
6/30/15 center cleared	8/3/15 40% cleared	9/1/15 surrounded
7/2/15 90% cleared	8/5/15 60% cleared	9/5/15 surrounded
7/6/15 operation	8/15/15 70% cleared	9/9/15 cleared
7/21/15 center reached	8/25/15 50% cleared	9/11/15 70% cleared
7/22/15 85% of Baiji district cleared	9/9/15 center cleared	9/19/15 surrounded
8/7/15 Baiji surrounded	9/18/15 60% cleared
8/16/15 80% cleared
8/24/15 50% cleared
8/25/15 90% of Baiji district cleared
8/31/15 operation
9/14/15 center cleared
9/17/15 60% cleared
9/19/15 70% cleared

Finally, one of the only good bits of news coming out of Iraq was a dramatic decline in car bombs from September 15-21. There were just 10 total VBIEDs launched during the week, with half of them being destroyed. That compared to 34 the week before, and 31 the first week of the month. The decline might just be a temporary dip since IS’s bombing campaigns usually last several months, and this is only the third.

Car Bombs In Iraq, September 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Sep 1	Haditha x3, Anbar Khalis, Diyala Sadoun St, Baghdad – 1 destroyed	16	26
Sep 2	Garma & Tal al-Mushahid, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 3	Shaab & Shuhada, Baghdad Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	2	15
Sep 4	Haditha & Zoba, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 5	Albu Aetha & Humaira Anbar– 5 destroyed
Sep 6	Bashir, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed
Sep 7	Albu Aetha, Anbar – 5 destroyed Karrada, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Totals	6 – 25 Destroyed	18	41
Sep 8	East of Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Sep 9	Ain Assad, East Husaiba & Husaiba, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 10	Albu Soda, Anbar Jawaanh, Anbar – 1 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	9	14
Sep 11	Jaraeshi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Sep 12	Albu Jwari, Salahaddin Anbar Univ, East Husaiba – 7 destroyed Hajaj, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed	3	8
Sep 13	Albu Aziz, Anbar East Husaiba & Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed Albu Jwari & Baiji, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	3	5
Sep 14	Nusour Sq, Baghdad Khalis, Diyala Ain Al-Tamur, Karbala – 1 destroyed	7	19
Totals	5 – 29 Destroyed	16	46
Sep 15
Sep 16
Sep 17	Wathbah Sq, Baghdad West of Haditha, Anbar – 1 destroyed South of Tikrit, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	11	57
Sep 18	5 Kilo, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Sep 19	Baiji Refinery x2, Salahaddin Saqlawiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed	2	5
Sep 20
Sep 21	Amin & Shuhada, Baghdad	14	55
Totals	5 - 5 Destroyed	27	117

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "Security forces find booby-trapped car bomb and two motorcycle bombs in Baquba," 9/19/15

Independent Press Agency, "Security forces control more areas in Fallujah," 7/14/15

Al Mada, "12 elements of Daash killed in process of clearing south Ramadi," 9/18/15

- "Federal police kill 7 Daash in Ramadi," 9/17/15

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "24 dead, 121 wounded, the final outcome of 2 suicide bombers in Baghdad," 9/17/15

- "12 ISIS elements, including Saudi national, killed east of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 9/15/15

Al Masalah, "Control of the area around Ramadi," 8/30/15

- "The destruction of a car bomb west of Haditha," 9/17/15

- "Killed 20 Daash in battles clearing Ramadi, Fallujah and Garma," 9/17/15,

New Sabah, "Security file," 9/19/15

NINA, "Army force destroys armored vehicles for Daash south of Tikrit," 9/17/15

- "Dozens of terrorists killed, their equipment and vehicles destroyed in different parts of Anbar," 9/16/15,

- "Federal Police liberation of center of Husaybah," 9/13/15, - "The International Coalition destroys a car bomb driven by a suicide bomber west of Ramadi," 9/18/15

- "Security Forces, Supported By Tribal Fighters, Liberate Areas South Of Ramadi," 9/19/15,

- "Two people killed, nine others wounded in southwest Baghdad," 9/21/15

Al Rayy, "Media cell declares Humera area south of Ramadi cleared," 8/8/15

Reuters, "Turkish jets hit Kurdish militant camps in Iraq, at least 55 killed: sources," 9/19/15

Rudaw, "ISIS assault defeated in Hardan," 9/21/15

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Islamic State claims responsibility for 2 suicide attacks in Baghdad," Associated Press, 9/17/15

Sarhan, Amre, "Al-Hashed al-Sha'bi militia foils suicide attack by ISIS north of Fallujah," Iraqi News, 9/19/15

Shafaq News, "45 ISIS elements including a leader in ISIS in liberation of al-Tameem area south of Ramadi," 7/30/15

Sotaliraq, "Amin bombing toll rises to 58 dead and wounded," 9/21/15

Xinhua, "IS militants launch 4 suicide bombings in central Iraq," 9/19/15