Thursday, September 17, 2015

Security Stable For Last Month In Iraq


The security situation in Iraq has remained stable for the last month. There have been around the same number of attacks and casualties since early August 2015. Incidents leveled off several months ago, but it has only been recently that casualties declined as well.

Musings On Iraq counted 144 attacks in Iraq from September 8-14. That was only a little bit higher than the previous weeks which saw 139 incidents from September 1-7, 136 August 22-28, 135 August 15-21, and 132 August 8-14. The numbers have been going up each week, but only slightly.

There were a reported 368 deaths and 394 wounded during the week. The dead consisted of 1 Sahwa, 19 Hashd al-Shaabi, 28 Peshmerga, 68 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 95 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters, and 157 civilians. There were also 1 Asayesh, 23 Hashd, 48 ISF, 115 Peshmerga, and 207 civilians injured.

Like attacks the dead and wounded have been at roughly the same level the last few weeks. August 15-21 there were 699 casualties, 638 August 22-28, 637 September 1-7, and 762 September 8-14.

The Islamic States’ newest car bomb campaign continued for another week. There has been at least one vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) launched each day for 23 days straight from August 23 to September 14. During the 2nd week of September there were a total of 34 car bombs, but only five detonated on their target, with the other 29 being destroyed beforehand. As usual, Anbar, 20, and Salahaddin, 11, had the largest number of these types of bombings as IS has been launching them against the government offensives there. There was also one VBIED in Baghdad, one in Diyala, and one discovered and dismantled in Karbala. This was the second month that IS had tried to hit Karbala. Luckily neither went off, but it shows that IS is attempting to hit the south again after a noticeable hiatus.

The government’s operation to clear Fallujah and Ramadi continued into its second month in September. There were 24 incidents in Anbar leading to 29 dead and 57 wounded. Those are gross undercounts as Baghdad has suppressed most of the casualty reports coming out of the province. During the week the joint forces still found themselves going back and forth through the same areas. Niamiya had its second sweep and was declared cleared on September 9. Albu Diab was cleared for the second time, there was an operation in Jeraishi for the third time, while Husaiba was declared freed for the fifth time. The operation in Garma, which began at the very start of June was also on going. The center of the town was surrounded towards the end of that month, but progress there has been stalled since then. On September 11, a new operation in the Rashad area of the Garma district was announced, the fourth since July. It didn’t help that many of these announcements were only propaganda instead of real victories. For example, Husaiba was declared cleared before any units even reached it. The Iraqi government is in war mode right now, and wants to highlight its wins both real and imagined.

Baghdad had 57 incidents with 65 dead and 154 injured. Those attacks were evenly distributed throughout the province with 11 in the west, 13 in the north, 14 in the east and the south respectively. There was one car bomb in the west, but as usual IEDs, 22, and sticky bombs, 10, were what really caused the most casualties.

Violence In Baghdad Sep 8-14, 2015
Center: 3 – 1 IED, 1 Shooting, 1 Sticky Bomb
East: 14 – 1 Kidnapping, 4 Shootings, 4 Sticky Bombs, 5 IEDs
North: 10 – 1 Stabbing, 1 Shooting, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Kidnappings, 5 IEDs
Outer North: 3 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 IED, 1 Shooting
South: 9 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Grenade, 2 Shootings, 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 IEDs
Outer South: 5 – 1 Grenade, 2 Shootings, 2 IEDs
West: 7 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Shooting, 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 IDs
Outer West: 4 – 2 Shootings, 2 IEDs

Diyala witnessed another car bombing during the week. The governorate has become a new target of the on going VBIED campaign with almost one such attack per week. There were also three incidents in the Kahanqin district in the northeast. The Peshmerga and Hashd emptied that area of civilians when it was cleared at the end of 2014. Recently people have been allowed back in, but there might have been some IS infiltrators amongst them accounting for this violence. There were a total of 12 attacks, 16 dead and 20 injured during the week.

The Kurds made another thrust into southern Kirkuk in September. Starting on September 11 the Peshmerga moved deeper into Daquq district taking a reported 20 villages. The Kurds first attacked the area at the end of August then took a break before renewing their operations this previous week. In a rare case of openness the Peshmerga announced some of its losses with 20 dead and 115 wounded during the operation. Like Baghdad, Irbil has been suppressing its losses, so this was an exception to their usual media silence.

Two waves of Turkish air strikes upon Kurdistan resulted in casualties in the second week of September. Ankara claimed that it killed 95 PKK fighters in bombing on September 8 and 12.

There were more IS executions in Ninewa. Of the 104 killed there during the week, 96 were murdered in the Mosul area by the Islamists. That included one radio director, one member of the Mutahidun party, 3 University of Mosul professors, 5 mukhtars, and 32 soldiers. IS also fired mortars at the town of Tal Saqif killing 8 Peshmerga.

Finally, the government’s struggle to take back the Baiji district in Salahaddin entered into another week. Propaganda is even worse there then in Anbar. For example, on August 28, the IS stronghold of Siniya was declared cleared. Then on September 5 it turned out the joint forces had just finished surrounding it. Then it was declared freed again on September 9, but then only 70% cleared on September 11. Whatever the true rate of progress may be the fighting there is intense with a motorcycle bomb, 2 suicide bombers, and 11 car bombs being launched against the government’s forces from September 8-14.  

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
189
466
464
Jan 8-14
172
733
518
Jan 15-21
189
403
528
Jan 22-28
195
492
899
Jan 29-31
91
306
568
JAN
836
2,400
2,977
Feb 1-7
155
408
688
Feb 8-14
177
443
566
Feb 15-21
169
592
383
Feb 22-28
171
391
705
FEB
672
1,834
2,342
Mar 1-7
176
373
595
Mar 8-14
137
398
656
Mar 15-21
146
1,304
505
Mar 22-28
174
273
406
Mar 29-31
72
205
219
MAR
705
2,553 + 4
2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7
127
218
422
Apr 8-14
137
676
542
Apr 15-21
172
729
717
Apr 22-28
163
497
483
Apr 29-30
50
162 + 7
182 + 299
APR
649
2,282
2,346
May 1-7
154
627
450
May 8-14
154
420
549
May 15-21
124
963
387
May 22-28
108
341 + 1,499
348
May 29-31
38
66
164 + 646
MAY
578
2,417 + 1,499
1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7
132
431
476
Jun 8-14
126
522 + 405
394
Jun 15-21
141
365
373
Jun 22-28
162
306
474
Jun 29-30
61
122
189
JUN
622
1,804
2,012
Jul 1-7
161
435
719
Jul 8-14
140
384
570
Jul 15-21
109
359
597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28
145
527
590
Jul 29-31
53
453 + 8
603
JUL
608
2,166
3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7
154
650 + 760
298
Aug 8-14
132
726
645
Aug 15-21
135
345
354
Aug 22-28
136
342
296
Aug 29-31
59
112 + 5
169
AUG
616
2,180 + 760
1,762
Sep 1-7
139
285
352
Sep 8-14
144
368
394

Car Bombs In Iraq, September 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Sep 1
Haditha x3, Anbar
Khalis, Diyala
Sadoun St, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
16
26
Sep 2
Garma & Tal al-Mushahid, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 3
Shaab & Shuhada, Baghdad
Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
2
15
Sep 4
Haditha & Zoba, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 5
Albu Aetha & Humaira Anbar– 5 destroyed


Sep 6
Bashir, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed


Sep 7
Albu Aetha, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Karrada, Baghdad – 1 destroyed


Totals
6 – 25 Destroyed
18
41
Sep 8
East of Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Sep 9
Ain Assad, East Husaiba & Husaiba, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 10
Albu Soda, Anbar
Jawaanh, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
9
14
Sep 11
Jaraeshi, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Sep 12
Albu Jwari, Salahaddin
Anbar Univ, East Husaiba – 7 destroyed
Hajaj, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
3
8
Sep 13
Albu Aziz, Anbar
East Husaiba & Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Albu Jwari & Baiji, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed
3
5
Sep 14
Nusour Sq, Baghdad
Khalis, Diyala
Ain Al-Tamur, Karbala – 1 destroyed
7
19
Totals
5 – 29 Destroyed
16
46

Violence In Iraq Sep 2015 by Province
Provinces
Sep 1-7
Sep 8-14
Anbar
25 Incidents
52 Killed: 5 Civilians, 10 Hashd, 13 ISF, 24 Sahwa
45 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 10 Sahwa, 12 ISF, 15 Hashd
10 Shootings
4 Suicide Bombers
3 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Mortars
19 Suicide Bombers Killed
20 Car Bombs Destroyed
24 Incidents
29 Killed: 4 Civilians, 8 Hashd, 17 ISF
57 Wounded: 13 Hashd, 19 ISF, 25 Civilians
10 Shootings
2 IEDs
2 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Mortars
4 Suicide Bombers killed
5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
13 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
2 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
5 wounded: 5 Civilians
1 IED
5 Incidents
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
14 Wounded: 4 ISF, 10 Civilians
1 Shooting
3 IEDs
Baghdad
58 Incidents
73 Killed: 2 ISF, 71 Civilians
199 Wounded: 8 ISF, 191 Civilians
11 Shootings
28 IEDs
8 Sticky Bombs
2 Car Bombs
1 Grenade
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
57 Incidents
65 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 58 Civilians
154 Wounded: 14 ISF, 140 Civilians
14 Shootings
22 IEDs
10 Sticky Bombs
1 Car Bomb
2 Grenades
Basra
-
3 Incidents
1 Wounded: 1 ISF
2 IEDs
1 Sound Bomb
Diyala
8 Incidents
14 Killed: 5 ISF, 9 Civilians
24 Wounded: 1 ISF, 23 Civilians
4 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
1 Mortar
12 Incidents
16 Killed: 3 Hashd, 4 ISF, 9 Civilians
20 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 3 Hashd, 15 Civilians
5 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
Karbala
1 Incident
2 Sound Bombs
1 Incident
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kirkuk
4 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Wounded: 1 Hashd
2 Shootings
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
6 Incidents
29 Killed: 9 Civilians, 20 Peshmerga
121 Wounded: 6 Civilians, 115 Peshmerga
2 Shootings
3 IEDs
KRG
-
2 Incidents
95 Killed: 95 PKK
2 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa
21 Incidents
116 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 108 Civilians
22 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 20 Civilians
10 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Rocket
1 Mortar
13 Incidents
104 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 32 ISF, 64 Civilians
4 Shootings
1 IED
1 Mortar
Qadisiyah
1 Incident
-
Salahaddin
19 Incidents
27 Killed: 6 ISF, 21 Civilians
56 Wounded: 21 ISF, 35 Civilians
7 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Mortar
12 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
21 Incidents
26 Killed: 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians, 11 ISF
27 Wounded: 7 Hashd, 9 ISF, 11 Civilians
11 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
1 Car Bomb Destroyed

SOURCES

AIN, "anti-terror destroyed five suicide car bombs in attack on Baiji," 9/13/15
- "ISF foils ISIL attack by 5 SVBIEDs in Baij district," 9/14/15
- "ISF, PMU foil ISIL attack by 4 SVBIEDs in Baij district," 9/12/15
- "The killing of a number of Daash and two car bombs destroyed in Garma," 9/13/15

Al Mada, "The destruction of three car bombs and Daash rocket launchers east of Ramadi," 9/12/15
- "Security forces thwart Daash suicide car bomb attack east of Ramadi," 9/8/15

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "Security forces foil suicide attack, kills 7 ISIS members east of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 9/9/15

Al Masalah, "Found a car bomb west of Karbala," 9/15/15
- "Security forces advancing north of Ramadi," 9/11/15

News.Az, "Turkey bombs PKK terror camps in northern Iraq, 60 dead," 9/12/15

NINA, "/3/ elements of the security forces killed, five others wounded in a suicide attack northeast of Fallujah," 9/13/15
- "12 Terrorists Killed In Ramadi," 9/9/15
- "62 Terrorists Killed And Wounded in Siniah Area In Baiji," 9/10/15
- "A Car Bomb, Rocket Launcher Destroyed East Of Ramadi In Anbar," 9/12/15
- "A number of terrorists killed, a number of car bombs destroyed in Al-Anbar and Baiji," 9/13/15
- "Peshmerga forces liberate 10 villages south of Kirkuk," 9/11/15,

Al Rayy, "The martyrdom and wounding of 18 people in market in Khalis, Diyala," 9/14/15
- "Popular crowd repels an attack by Daash with three car bombs west of Falluja," 9/12/15

Shafaq News, "15 ISIS elements killed … suicide tanker bomb attack foiled near Ain al-Asad base," 9/10/15
- "Casualties of police and PMU in three-axes ISIS attack on Baiji," 9/12/15
- "More than 50 Turkish fighters bomb sites of PKK," 9/8/15

Sotaliraq, "Destruction of a suicide tank bomb west of Ramadi," 9/9/15
- "killing and injuring at least nine people blown up by a car bomb in west Baghdad," 9/14/15

3 comments:

Golladay said...

By your count, what is the total number of actual ISF and Peshmerga Causalities?

Joel Wing said...

I'd have to add them all up but govt forces casualties are the most underreported because of govt censorship from both Baghdad and Irbil so whatever number I come up with will just be a minimum for what has actually happened.

Golladay said...

Okay. i know of the propaganda war. If we took ISF's counts seriously, ISIS has lost 1,000% of its members. YPG's are even more inflated.

Makes it hard to know what the real situation is. But its clear IS has substantial population support, they simply can't stay in the field without with the intensity of the fighting at the level its at. Especially as its fighting in Syria and Lebanon as well.