The latest Iraqi public opinion poll covered three major topics, the second of
which was the security situation in the country. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research conducted the poll from August to September 2015 querying 2,000 Iraqis
from all parts of the country. The war was by far the most important issue
according to the Iraqis questioned. Confidence in the security forces was split
along ethnosectarian lines, and most believed that the conflict would last at
least another year.
When asked what were
the most important issues facing the government security was number one. Nearly
half of respondents, 48% said that topic was the biggest issue facing Iraq.
With the war still raging in central and western Iraq and Mosul and most of
Anbar province still under the Islamic State’s control it was no surprise that
Iraqis felt that way. Violence has actually been a pressing issue since early
2013 when the insurgency began picking up after its nadir in 2008-2009. However
compared to December 2014 security declined 13% in importance due to
improvement in the south. When broken down by region every part of Iraq except
the south believed that security was deteriorating. In Baghdad 59% said worse
compared to 19% better. In the west 78% said worse, 6% better, and even in
Kurdistan 63% responded worse, 31% better. The south was the one exception with
43% feeling security had gotten worse, but 53% felt that it was better. After
Mosul fell in June 2014 there was widespread belief that Baghdad would be
attacked, which would open the way to the rest of the country. That didn’t
happen however and most people in places like Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, etc. now
feel relatively secure that IS is not able to reach their provinces leading to
the responses in the survey.
Which 2 issues are the most important for the
government to address?
Security 48%
Corruption 43%
Basic Services 37%
Jobs 30%
Displaced 15%
Sectarianism 12%
High Prices 5%
Education 3%
Central
Government-Kurdistan dispute 2%
How important is security for the government
to deal with?
June 2012 27%
Important
April 2013 31%
Important
September 2013 50%
Important
February 2014 52%
Important
December 2014 61%
Important
September 2015 48% Important
Is security getting better or worse?
Baghdad 59% Worse,
19% Better
South 43% Worse, 53%
Better
West 78% Worse, 6% Better
Kurdistan 63% Worse,
31% Better
Each major group in
Iraq felt differently about the security forces. While 54% said that they
trusted the Iraqi army compared to 22% for local forces or 21% both/neither
that was skewed by the responses by Shiites. For that group 66% believed that the
army protected them, while only 22% of Sunnis did and 12% of Kurds. For Sunnis
they were almost evenly split between local forces, 37%, and the army, 34%. Only
8% of Kurds were confident in the army against 64% for local forces meaning the
Peshmerga. Another factor was that the three groups saw the composition of the
army differently. 60% believed that the army represented all Iraqis against 29%
who said it only represented Shiites. Again that was due to 90% of Shiites feeling
the army was national in character. The Sunnis and Kurds however thought that
the armed forces were Shiite at 58% and 60% respectively. For Sunnis their
loyalties were almost evenly split between the armed forces and tribal
fighters. They might have had an even better opinion of the army, but it was
widely believed that former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki purged Sunni
officers for loyalists, and then Abadi got rid of Maliki’s men to put in his
own. Kurds didn’t look upon the army positively at all given their regions’
history of conflict with the central government. Instead they put their
confidence in the Peshmerga.
Who do you trust to keep you safe the Iraqi
army or local forces?
Overall 54% Army,
21% Both/neither, 22% Local forces
Shiites 66% Army,
22% Both/neither, 12% Local forces
Sunnis 34% Army, 23%
Both/neither, 37% Local forces
Kurds 8% Army, 13%
Both/neither, 64% Local forces
Does the army represent all Iraqis or only
Shiites?
Overall 60% All
Iraqis, 29% Only Shiites
Shiites 90% All
Iraqis, 7% Only Shiites
Sunnis 29% All
Iraqis, 58% Only Shiites
Kurds 14% All
Iraqis, 60% Only Shiites
The Hashd al-Shaabi
were seen largely the same way as the army. When asked who did they trust to
provide security the army or Hashd the army just inched out the Hashd because
of Sunni respondents. Overall, 35% said the army would do the best job, but the
Hashd were right there with 31%. Another 25% said both or neither. The army was
able to come out ahead because 48% of Sunnis said they would prefer it over the
Hashd, 27%. 45% of Shiites on the other hand liked the Hashd more than the army
at 30%. Kurds didn’t like either one with 0% saying the army, 1% saying the
Hashd and 32% both/neither. Many Sunnis have a negative opinion of the Hashd
seeing them as a sectarian Shiite force carrying out mass arrests and
destroying property. That opinion is shared by the Kurds as well. The Peshmerga
and Hashd have clashed in several areas in Diyala and Salahaddin, and the Kurds
believe that the two sides will eventually challenge each other in the future
for control of the disputed territories. That leads the Hashd to be seen as a
threat. To Shiites the Hashd came to the rescue when Mosul fell and are believed
to be protectors of the nation.
Who do you trust more to provide security the
army or the Hashd al-Shaabi?
Overall 35% Army,
31% Hashd, 25% Both/neither
Shiites 30% Army,
45% Hashd, 23% Both/neither
Sunnis 48% Army, 4%
Hashd, 27% Both/neither
Kurds 0%, 1% Hashd,
32% Both/Neither
Even with those divided
opinions a majority of Iraqis believed that the Hashd should be used in the
fight against the Islamic State. 81% of Iraqis said that the Hashd be utilized
in the war. Unsurprisingly 99% of Shiites supported the idea, as well as 50% of
Sunnis versus 42% being opposed. Kurds on the other hand felt the opposite with
80% being against, and 6% for. The next question was how important people felt
about the Hashd participating in the fight against IS. 81% said it was very to
somewhat important. 100% of Shiites felt that way, 52% of Sunnis and only 5% of
Kurds. Again, many Kurds were thinking about Iraq after the war and had strong
trepidations about the Hashd, and do not want to see its influence grow
fighting the Islamic State. Even though many Sunnis believed the Hashd were a
Shiite force around half still wanted them to help in the war effort.
Do you support or oppose the use of the Hashd
in the fight against IS?
Overall 81% Support,
16% Oppose
Shiites 99% Support,
1% Oppose
Sunnis 50% Support,
42% Oppose
Kurds 6% Support,
80% Oppose
How important are the Hashd to the fight
against IS?
Overall 81%
Very/Somewhat Important, 15% Little/Not important
Shiites 100%
Very/Somewhat Important, 0% Little/Not important
Sunnis 52%
Very/Somewhat Important, 41% Little/Not important
Kurds 5%
Very/Somewhat Important, 78% Little/Not important
Most Iraqis believed
that the war would last at least a year. People were given five options on how
long they believed it would take beat IS. 22% of Shiites, 4% of Sunnis and 3%
of Kurds thought it would take 6 months. 31% of Shiites, 15% of Sunnis and 7%
of Kurds picked 6-12 months. Most seemed to believe it would take 1-2 years,
which 23% of Shiites, 24% of Sunnis, and 17% of Kurds selected. More Sunnis,
30%, and Kurds, 41% however thought it would take 2 or more years versus just
6% of Shiites. There was also a minority who said the war would never end, 1%
of Shiites, 5% of Sunnis, and 14% of Kurds. Despite the huge shock of losing
Mosul and Tikrit in the summer of 2014 Iraqis seemed to have calmed down and
now see the war as something that is finite, meaning that it will eventually
end in a few years if not sooner.
How long do you think it will take to defeat
IS?
Within 6 months 22%
Shiites, 4% Sunnis, 3% Kurds
6-12 months 31% Shiites,
15% Sunnis, 7% Kurds
1-2 years 23%
Shiites, 24% Sunnis, 17% Kurds
2 years or more 6%
Shiites, 30% Sunnis, 41% Kurds
Never 1% Shiites, 5%
Sunnis, 14% Kurds
The Islamic State
exacerbated existing fissures within Iraqi society, which were shown in the
poll. Respondents for example saw the army and Hashd through an ethnosectarian
lense with the Shiites preferring the army and Hashd, against the Sunnis and
Kurds who preferred their own forces. There was also a few seeming
contradictions. For one, the security situation was seen as getting worse, but
most believed that the war would end sooner rather than later. Sunnis and Kurds
didn’t like the Hashd but more than half of the former thought they were needed
in the fight. What these results show is the complexity of Iraqi society.
Things are not as clear cut as they seem. Yes, there are ethnosectarian
differences, but they do not always play out as people would think.
SOURCES
Greenberg Quinlan
Rosner Research, “Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood, August-September 2015
Survey Findings,” 11/23/15
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