Monday, December 7, 2015

Violence Continues To Decline In Iraq, Nov 2015


In November 2015 attacks continued to dip in Iraq while the number of casualties was roughly the same as the previous month. These numbers reflect the fact that the Islamic State has been on the defensive for most of the year.

There were 530 security incidents reported in the media during the month. That was an average of 17.6 attacks per day, the lowest of the year. That was down from 18.3 in October, 19.1 in September, 19.8 in August, 19.6 in July, and 20.7 in June. At the start of 2015 IS launched an offensive against the Kurds in northern Iraq, but after that went on the defensive in most of the country. Attacks have steadily gone down as a result with over 800 in January then roughly 600 per month form February to August with March being an exception with 774. Then from September to November there have been around 500 incidents per month.

During November Baghdad was by far the most violent province in the country. There were 229 incidents there, 43% of the total. After that there were 84 in Anbar, 77 in Ninewa and Salahaddin each, 22 in Diyala, 20 in Babil, 15 in Kirkuk, 3 in Basra, and one each in Irbil, Najaf, and Sulaymaniya.

Despite the drop in attacks the number of casualties remained relatively the same between October and November. There were 2,639 dead and wounded in October versus 2,629 in November. The reason why casualties didn’t drop was due to the discovery of several hundred dead Yazidis in mass graves in the Sinjar district of Ninewa. These figures should be considered a minimum because so many dead and wounded are not reported.

Broken down there were 1,174 deaths and 1,455 wounded in November. There were 1 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighter, 2 Yazidis fighters, 2 Sahwa, 44 Hashd, 103 Peshmerga, 156 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 866 civilians killed, and 1 Asayesh, 3 Yazidis, 82 Hashd, 127 Peshmerga, 162 ISF, and 1,080 civilians injured.

By governorate Ninewa had the most fatalities with 608. Baghdad had 301, Salahaddin 100, Anbar 67, Babil 27, Kirkuk 26, Diyala 18, Basra 2, and Najaf 1.

In Anbar most of the reported casualties were in and around Ramadi where major fighting continued to secure the city from the Islamic State. Of the total 67 dead and 107 wounded, 36 killed and 16 injured were in that district. There were another 40 people wounded by IS mortar fire upon Amiriya Fallujah during the middle of the month. There were another 40 casualties in western Anbar in places like Haditha and Rutba, and finally 20 in Fallujah. These numbers are only a fraction of the true losses in the province as the government has been suppressing casualties since the Ramadi-Fallujah offensive began in July.

Babil saw a large decline in casualties from October to November. There were 27 killed and 115 wounded in the latter compared to 27 dead and 57 injured in the former. The difference was due to three car bombs hitting the province in October versus none in November.

In Baghdad violence remained largely the same due to the heavy deployment of forces to protect pilgrims during the Arbaeen ceremony. In November there was 1 motorcycle bomb, 2 car bombs, 5 suicide bombers, 26 sticky bombs, and 116 IEDs along with 2 suicide bombers who were killed and 3 car bombs that were destroyed or dismantled. Those led to 301 dead and 869 wounded. The numbers could have been much higher, but the tight security to protect pilgrims was successful.

Another area that saw a decline in attacks was Diyala. Before IS was setting off car bombs there nearly every week and firing mortars into the center of the province. That’s pretty much ended. In November there was just 1 mortar attack and one attempt at a suicide car bomb that failed. That led casualties to drop from 105 dead and 166 wounded in October to just 18 killed and 35 injured in November.

Kirkuk remained relatively quite. IS did make some probing attacks against the Peshmerga that resulted in 6 dead and 12 injured, but this has become the norm.

There were two rare attacks in the Kurdistan Regional Government. First a sticky bomb wounded a Peshmerga in Sulaymaniya, while a man fired on the Peshmerga Ministry building in Irbil.

Ninewa had the most casualties for the month for three reasons. First, the operation to free Sinjar finally occurred costing the lives of 59 Peshmerga and wounding another 86. Second, in the aftermath several mass graves were discovered with the bodies of 271 Yazidis massacred by IS. More such grizzly finds are likely to emerge in the coming days and weeks. Finally, the Islamic State executed 182 people mostly in Mosul. In total, there were 608 killed and 163 wounded in Ninewa for the month.

IS continued attacks up and down Salahaddin. Towns like Taji and Tarmiya in the south just outside of Baghdad remained a favorite target with 25 dead and 69 wounded there. There were mopping operations in the Baiji area and an on going offensive to the north in places like the Makhoul Mountains that left 38 killed and 67 injured. Likewise there has been fighting outside for Samarra for several weeks now that resulted in 8 deaths and 19 wounded. Finally, Tuz Kharmato exploded in ethnic violence between Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen plus there was an IS car bombing to exploit these divisions that caused a total of 27 fatalities and 38 wounded.

IS’s car bomb campaign entered its seventh month. There were a total of 155 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in November. Only 9 found their targets with the rest being destroyed or dismantled beforehand. Anbar led the country with 99 VBIEDs only one of which was successful. There were another 37 in Salahaddin, 21 in Ninewa, 5 in Baghdad, and one each in Diyala and Kirkuk.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
205
466
464
Jan 8-14
176
733
518
Jan 15-21
193
403
528
Jan 22-28
197
492
899
Jan 29-31
91
306
568
JAN
862
2,400
2,977
Feb 1-7
159
408
688
Feb 8-14
178
443
566
Feb 15-21
175
592
383
Feb 22-28
178
391
730
FEB
690
1,834
2,367
Mar 1-7
186
373
595
Mar 8-14
156
398
656
Mar 15-21
170
1,304
505
Mar 22-28
186
273
406
Mar 29-31
76
205
219
MAR
774
2,553 + 4
2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7
130
218
422
Apr 8-14
140
674
531
Apr 15-21
175
729
717
Apr 22-28
167
497
483
Apr 29-30
51
162 + 7
182 + 299
APR
663
2,280
2,335
May 1-7
159
627
450
May 8-14
161
420
549
May 15-21
128
963
387
May 22-28
115
341 + 1,499
348
May 29-31
38
66
164 + 646
MAY
601
2,417 + 1,499
1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7
133
431
476
Jun 8-14
126
522 + 405
394
Jun 15-21
141
365
373
Jun 22-28
162
306
474
Jun 29-30
61
122 + 58
189 + 106
JUN
623
1,804
2,012
Jul 1-7
161
435
719
Jul 8-14
140
384
570
Jul 15-21
109
359
597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28
145
527
590
Jul 29-31
53
193 + 260
203 + 400
JUL
608
2,158
3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7
154
650 + 760
298
Aug 8-14
133
756
640
Aug 15-21
135
345
354
Aug 22-28
136
342
296
Aug 29-31
59
112
169
AUG
617
2,205 + 760
1,757
Sep 1-7
139
285
352
Sep 8-14
144
368
394
Sep 15-21
123
323
488
Sep 22-28
128
190
258
Sep 29-30
39
106 + 19
147 + 8
SEP
573
1,291 + 314
1,647 + 3,003
Oct 1-7
105
291
398
Oct 8-14
144
254
389
Oct 15-21
142
208
279
Oct 22-28
129
216
366
Oct 29-31
49
110
116 + 1
OCT
569
1,079
1,549
Nov 1-7
125
186
316
Nov 8-14
121
265
354
Nov 15-21
140
358
420
Nov 22-28
107
289
261 + 124 + 1,322
Nov 29-30
37
52 + 24
103 + 1
NOV
530
1,174
1,455 + 124 + 1,322

Security By Province Nov 2015
Province
Nov
Anbar
84 Incidents
67 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 24 Civilians, 38 ISF
107 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 42 ISF, 63 Civilians
28 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Suicide Car Bomb
8 Mortars
35 Suicide Bombers Killed
2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed
66 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
32 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
20 Incidents
27 Killed: 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 21 Civilians
57 Wounded: 4 ISF, 4 Hashd, 49 Civilians
5 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
1 Suicide Bomber
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Baghdad
229 Incidents
301 Killed + 24: 1 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 21 ISF, 299 Civilians
869 Wounded: 9 Hashd, 46 ISF, 814 Civilians
52 Shootings
116 IEDs
26 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
5 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Mortars
1 Grenade
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra
3 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
2 Shootings
1 Sound Bomb
Diyala
22 Incidents
18 Killed: 3 Hashd, 6 ISF, 9 Civilians
35 Wounded: 7 ISF, 27 Civilians
8 Shootings
4 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Mortar
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
Irbil
1 Incident
1 Shooting
Kirkuk
15 Incidents
26 Killed: 1 ISF, 6 Peshmerga, 19 Civilians
22 Wounded: 4 ISF, 7 Civilians, 12 Peshmerga
8 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Suicide Bombers
1 Car Bomb
Najaf
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Ninewa
77 Incidents
608 Killed: 1 PKK, 2 Yazidi Fighters, 62 ISF, 96 Peshmerga, 447 Civilians
163 Wounded: 3 Yazidi Fighters, 46 Civilians, 114 Peshmerga
39 Shootings
8 IEDs
8 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
3 Rockets
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
18 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin
77 Incidents
100 Killed: 1Peshmerga, 24 ISF, 31 Hashd, 44 Civilians
200 Wounded: 1 Asayesh, 59 ISF, 66 Hashd, 74 Civilians
46 Shootings
62 IEDs
3 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Mortar
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
6 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
29 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya
1 Incident
1 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga
1 Sticky Bomb

Car Bombs In Iraq, November 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Nov 1
Subhait, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Obied, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Rabia, Ninewa – 1 destroyed


Nov 2
Balad, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Nov 3
Dibis, Kirkuk
West of Ramadi, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Leine, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed

3
Nov 4
Hardan, Ninewa
Adil & Rashad, Anbar – 9 destroyed
1
15
Nov 5
Zankura, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 7 destroyed


Nov 6
Baiji, Salahaddin
Albu Faraj & Jeraishi, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Sukker, Salahaddin – 13 destroyed
7
20
Nov 7
Albu Hayat – 9 destroyed


Totals
3 – 53 Destroyed
8
38
Nov 8
Sadr City, Baghdad
Albu Hayat, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Mkeshivh, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
6
21
Nov 9
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Samarra, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed


Nov 10



Nov 11



Nov 12
Fallujah, Anbar – 6 destroyed
Sinjar, Ninewa – 6 destroyed


Nov 13
Niamiya & Subhait, Anbar – 7 destroyed


Nov 14
Sinjar, Ninewa
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Mandali, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Harden, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
2
23
Totals
2 - 30 Destroyed
8
44
Nov 15
Albu Faraj & Jeraishi, Anbar – 4 destroyed


Nov 16
Haraym, Ninewa
5 Kilo, Albu Faraj, Zaytoun, ?, Anbar – 10 destroyed
Haraym, Ninewa – 1 destroyed
12
20
Nov 17
5 Kilo & Jeraishi, Anbar – 9 destroyed
Raood Bridge, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Makhoul Mts, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed


Nov 18
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Bashiqa, Ninewa – 1 destroyed
Massoud & Mkeshivh, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed

12
Nov 19
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Nov 20
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 4 destroyed


Nov 21
Mosul Dam, Ninewa – 7 destroyed


Totals
1 – 50 Destroyed
12
32
Nov 22
Albu Faraj & Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Nov 23
5 Kilo, Ramadi, Subhait, Anbar – 9 destroyed
Amiriya, Baghdad – 1 destroyed


Nov 24
Albu Dujail & north of Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Nov 25
Madain, Baghdad
South of Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
2
8
Nov 26
Haditha, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Salam, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Nov 27
Jubba, Anbar
17

Nov 28
Tuz Kharmato, Salahddin
8
22
Totals
3 – 17 Destroyed
27
30
Nov 29
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 4 destroyed


Nov 30
Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Totals
0 – 5 Destroyed
-
-
Grand Total
9 – 155 Destroyed
55
144

2 comments:

Guido Olimpio said...

Just a question: 155 are VBIED or SVBIED?, thanks

Joel Wing said...

Both