Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Iraq Sets New High For Exports As Stored Oil Released To The Market


In November 2015 Iraq reached a new high for its oil exports. Unfortunately that was due to the release of petroleum that was in storage rather than a new surge in production or regular exports. Otherwise the country is facing the lowest oil prices in seven years fueling a budgetary crisis.

In November Iraq exported an average of 3.365 million barrels a day, the most since 2003. The previous high was 3.187 million set in June. The reason for the surge was bad weather the previous month, which blocked loading shipments onto tankers. That oil was placed into storage and then released last month.

The huge jump in exports came at time of falling oil prices. A barrel of Iraqi crude went for $36.42, the lowest rate of the year. In fact, the last time the nation’s petroleum was in the $30 range was February 2009. (1)

Iraq earned $3.676 billion during November. That was the fourth lowest of the year.

November was the second month that the Kurds did not contribute any exports to the central government. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) shipped 600,769 barrels a day for itself. Production at its own fields has actually been going down because the region is facing a financial crisis and owes millions to energy companies. They have been reducing investment as a result, which is reducing output. The KRG has been able to keep up its export rate due to the fields in Kirkuk it took over after the fall of Mosul in the summer of 2014.

Baghdad is facing its own economic problems. It is facing a huge deficit because of the drop in oil prices, the war with the Islamic State, and bad planning that led to an unrealistic 2015 budget. The draft 2016 budget is little better as it is based upon 3.6 million barrels a day in exports selling at $45 per barrel. Politicians have been unwilling to make any serious cuts to spending, while making huge assumptions about the growth in the country’s energy sector. That will mean more economic problems next year.

Iraq Oil Exports & Revenues 2014-15
Month
Avg.
Exports
Avg. Price
Per Barrel
Earnings
(Bil)
Jan. 14
2.228
$102.37
$7.074
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$8.001
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.509
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.582
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.470
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.742
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$6.916
Oct
2.432
$81.12
$6.120
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.25
Dec
2.941
$56.59
$5.161
2014 Avg.
2.51
$92.39
$7.013
Jan
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.98
$48.24
$4.457
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.104
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.874
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.692
Oct
2.7
$39.56
$3.320
Nov
3.365
$36.42
$3.67


2015 Oil Exports From Basra
Jan 2.39 mil/bar/day
Feb 2.29 mil/bar/day
Mar 2.71 mil/bar/day
Apr 2.62 mil/bar/day
May 2.69 mil/bar/day
Jun 3.022 mil/bar/day
Jul 3.064 mil/bar/day
Aug 3.021 mil/bar/day
Sep 3.03 mil/bar/day
Oct 2.7 mil/bar/day
Nov 3.37 mil/bar/day

2015 Oil Exports By Kurds
Jan 153,000 bar/day
Feb 306,000 bar/day
Mar 268,000 bar/day
Apr 450,000 bar/day
May 451,000 bar/day
Jun 164,733 bar/day
Jul 41,000 bar/day
Aug 50,900 bar/day
Sep 21,500 bar/day
Oct 0.0 bar/day
Nov 0.0 bar/day

FOOTNOTE

1. Aswat al-Iraq, “Oil ministry says Iraq’s exports hit $1.9b in Feb.,” 3/28/09

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Oil ministry says Iraq’s exports hit $1.9b in Feb.,” 3/28/09

eKurd, "Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - December 9, 2015," 12/9/15

Lando, Ben, Osgood, Patrick, “Iraq shatters export records,” Iraq Oil Report, 12/2/15

Osgood, Patrick, Tahir, Rawaz, “Iraq budget moves toward passage,” Iraq Oil Report, 11/26/15

Reuters, “Iraq oil exports hit record 3.37 million bpd in November,” 12/1/15


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