More and more neighborhoods are falling to government forces.
The Federal Police took
Salam for the third time and Sahiron in the southeast. The Golden Division
freed Nisan 7 in
the northeast, and began its assault
upon Mosul University. Elements of that unit liberated Siha
in the east for the third time, Maliya
in the south along the Tigris River and Sadiq
for the second time along with the Rapid Reaction Forces in the south. Sumer,
which was declared liberated twice this month, was actually still contested,
but the Federal Police said
they were now in control of 75% of it. The Iraqi forces were still trying to
seize Palestine,
Yarmja and Hadbaa,
all of which have been called freed before. The Iraqi Forces (ISF) has a bad
habit or declaring neighborhoods liberated before they are, sometimes before
they’re even reached. Despite that problem a majority of east Mosul is now
under Iraqi control.
In an important development the army and Golden Division
finally met up in
northeast Mosul. That happened in the Hadbaa district when units from the 16th
Division greeted
members of the Counter Terrorism forces.
The quick advances in recent days has led more and more
Iraqi officials to predict the fall of east Mosul. National Security Adviser
Falah al-Fayad,
deputy commander of the
9th Division General Walid al-Khalifa, and the Joint
Operations Command all told the press that they expected the Left Coast of
the city to be freed in a matter of days. The operation is still behind the
bold predictions of Prime Minister Haider Abadi who believed the entire city
could be taken by the end of 2016, but the recent victories are seizing far
more territory compared to the previous two months.
The signs are there that the Islamic State’s defenses are
breaking. The head of the Joint Operations Command General Talib
Shaghait, 9th Division deputy commander General Khalifa, and U.S.
Colonel Brett
Sylvia all noted that the number of car bombs being launched is way down.
Sylvia said that at the start of the Mosul campaign there were an average of 10
vehicle bombs per day with half of them causing casualties. Now there was just
1-2 each day and only one in six hitting its target. You wouldn’t know there
was such a dramatic drop in such attacks if you just read the press releases by
the ISF. In the first week of January for example they claimed 16 car bombs per
day. That was just more exaggerating however.
There were other examples of IS’s problems. More fighters
were withdrawing
from the Left to Right Bank. Those were mostly Iraqis as the foreigners were
staying. Some locals told New
Sabah that insurgents were asking people for provisions.
Finally, the ISF has adapted to the urban fighting as well.
Before Iraqi units were moving in large
vehicle columns through the city. Those were slow and easy to hit. Now the
forces are moving by foot. They are also using spikes and cratering roads along
with older tactics like employing bulldozers to create berms all meant to slow
down and impede vehicle bombs. Finally, there are four different forces in
Mosul, the Golden Division, the army, the Federal Police, and the Rapid
Reaction forces. At first, none of these units were coordinating. Now the U.S.
has pushed
them towards greater cooperation with weekly meetings of commanders. Finally,
the multi-front push on Mosul was abandoned for concentrating just on the
eastern side.
To the west in the Tal Afar district the Hashd are ramping
up to re-start operations. Reinforcements
are arriving for a sixth stage. What that entails has not been divulged yet,
but it will likely mean taking more small towns, as the Hashd cannot enter Tal
Afar itself. The army and police are supposed to do that, which means the Hashd
are left to clearing the district.
In Qayara south of Mosul there are still oil wells burning.
These were set alight by the Islamic State as it abandoned the area back in
October. The Oil Ministry has been hard at work trying to douse
the flames, but there are still many ablaze causing a huge amount of
environmental damage. So far the ministry has put out 17 wells.
SOURCES
Adel, Loaa, "Joint security forces besiege Mosul University:
Official," Iraqi News, 1/11/17
AIN, “Freed new neighborhoods in Mosul and kill 347 Daash
today [Revised], 1/11/17
Bas News, "Mosul: Iraqi Forces Liberate Three More
Neighbourhoods," 1/8/17
Buratha News, “Field commander: freed 90% of the districts
in the left coast of Mosul,” 1/11/17
- “Yarallah outlines developments in the field during
operations to liberate Mosul until 20:10 pm Wednesday, 11 01 2017,” 1/11/17
Face Iraq, “Joint Iraqi forces impose control over 85% of
the left coast of the city of Mosul – report,” 1/11/17
- "Security forces liberated Mithaq, Sumer, Jaffa and stormed
Dumiz neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul," 1/3/17
George, Susannah, “Top Iraqi commander: Mosul could be
liberated in 3 months,” Associated Press, 1/11/17
Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Dec. 7, 2016," 12/7/16
- "Inside Mosul: Jan. 4, 2017," 1/4/17
- "Inside Mosul: Jan. 11, 2017," 1/11/17
- "Inside Mosul, Nov. 21, 2016," 11/21/16
Al Maalomah, “The destruction of many car bombs during the
daily operations, Ninewa, We Are Coming,” 1/11/17
Al Masalah, “Fayad: the battle for the left coast of Mosul
will be resolved soon,” 1/11/17
Mostafa, Mohamed, "Iraqi army, police recapture 3 eastern
Mosul districts on Wednesday," Iraqi News, 1/11/17
- "Iraqi forces recapture 3 eastern Mosul districts,"
Iraqi News, 1/9/17
- "Iraqi forces storm more districts in Mosul, chemical
counter-attacks feared," Iraqi News, 1/11/17
New Sabah, “Daesh members fleeing: We have not eaten in
three days,” 1/11/17
NINA, "Security forces impose full control over Wahda and
Sumer southeast Mosul," 1/5/17
Rojkan, Mira, "Joint Forces Continue to Advance, Liberating
More Areas in Mosul," Bas News, 12/4/16
Rudaw, “Iraqi army adopts tactic of marching on foot into
ISIS sectors of Mosul,” 1/11/17
- “US commander hails Iraqi forces beating ISIS drones and
VBIEDs,” 1/11/17
Shafaaq News, “Free 90 percent of Mosul and two districts as
Daesh gunmen flee,” 1/11/17
- “Meeting of the army for the first time in Mosul,” 1/11/17
Sotaliraq, "Federal Police control 75% of Sumer neighborhood
and kill tens of Daash," 1/11/17
UN News Centre, “Humanitarian crisis in Mosul could outlive
Iraqi military operations, senior UN official warns,” 1/11/17
Xinhua, "Iraqi forces advance further into IS stronghold in
Mosul," 1/11/17
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