Monday, January 2, 2017

24,091 Reported Dead And 39,205 Wounded In Iraq In 2016 (2nd Revision)

Violence in Iraq fluctuated throughout 2016. During the start of the year security incidents were in a steady decline until May and June when they went up slightly during the Islamic State’s spring offensive. They then continued to spiral downwards until August when attacks went up reaching a peak in November, before dipping again in December. In 2015 8,473 security incidents were recorded by tracking over 40 Iraqi, western and Asian media outlets each day. In 2016 there were 7,447, a decline of 1,026 showing overall that violence has declined since its peak in 2014 when the Islamic State swept across northern and central Iraq. Since then the insurgents have continuously been beaten back and their resources to carry out operations has been diminished. During the first three quarters of 2016 the number of incidents shrank from 2,063 the first quarter to 1,936 the second to 1,678 in the third. They then saw an uptick to 1,770 in the fourth, but it was still below the level of the first half of the year.

2015 vs 2016

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
2015
8,473
26,078
26,021
2016
7,447
24,091
39,205

Violence In Iraq 1st Qtr 2016

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Jan
723
2,418
1,986
Feb
657
1,685
1,724
Mar
683
1,685
2,095
Totals
2,063
5,788
5,805

Violence In Iraq 2nd Qtr 2016

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Apr
630
1,840
1,904
May
675
1,644
2,484
Jun
631
2,111
6,455
Totals
1,936
5,595
10,843

Violence In Iraq 3rd Qtr 2016

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Jul
531
1,329
1,708
Aug
574
1,263
1,376
Sep
573
1,203
1,602
Totals
1,678
3,795
4,686

Violence In Iraq 4th Qtr 2016

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Oct
589
2,965
2,376
Nov
599
4,389
3,972
Dec
582
1,559
11,523
Totals
1,770
8,913
17,871

The decline and rise in violence during the year could also be seen when incidents were averaged out per day. In January there was an average of 23.3 incidents per day, the highest amount of the year. That went down to 21.0 per day in April before going up during the Islamic State’s spring offensive when there were 21.7 incidents in May and 21.0 in June. After that however there was a sharp drop down to 17.1 per day in July. Then things picked up once more with 18.5 in August 19.1 in September, 19.0 in October, and 19.9 in November and 18.7 in December as there was a jump in attacks in Baghdad and then the Mosul campaign got underway.

Avg. Incidents Per Day In Iraq Jan-Sep 2016
Month
Avg. Incidents Per Day
Jan
23.3
Feb
22.6
Mar
22.0
Apr
21.0
May
21.7
Jun
21.0
Jul
17.1
Aug
18.5
Sep
19.1
Oct
19.0
Nov
19.9
Dec
18.7

Baghdad and Ninewa accounted for 63% of the incidents in the country during the year. The Islamic State’s terrorist campaign in Baghdad followed the same pattern as incidents in the rest of Iraq. In January there was an average of 11.6 incidents per day. That dropped to a low of 8.9 per day in June and July before climbing back up to 10.1 in August and 10.8 in September. In October those figures dropped to 8.3 incidents, 7.9 in November, and then way down to 4.7 in Baghdad. It was unclear whether the low numbers at the finish were due to the end of the insurgent’s campaign or due to a lack of media coverage of the capital when the Mosul campaign began. In Ninewa there was a low level of violence, consisting of roughly 50-50 executions by the militants, and attacks upon the Peshmega and security forces. In January there was an average of 2.3. When the spring offensive took off there were 3.0 incidents per day in March, 3.5 in April, and 3.1 in May before going down to 1.6 by July. When the Mosul campaign started that jumped to 5.0 in October, 7.4 in November, and 10.1 in December.

Despite the decrease in incidents the number of casualties actually increased from 2015 to 2016. In 2015 there were 26,078 fatalities and 26,021wounded for a total of 52,099. The number of injured should be 2-5 times higher than the number of deaths, but government censorship of its losses has distorted the figures. The next year there were 24,091 dead and 39,205 injured equaling 63,296. The rise from 2015-2016 was due to the Mosul campaign, which saw a huge number of civilian casualties in the last three months of the year, some of which got reported in the press. The true figures were likely much higher. Unfortunately that meant casualties were no longer a reliable measure of violence in the country. Since 2014 the government has suppressed its losses to maintain morale with none officially reported for any major campaigns such as Tikrit, Ramadi, Baiji or Fallujah. It is likely that thousands of members of the Iraqi forces have been killed and wounded in those battles and have not been officially recognized.

When broken down by province, Ninewa surpassed Baghdad as the deadliest. There were 1,394 incidents reported in the former, leading to 9,559 deaths and 15,367 wounded. That was just 18% of all incidents, but 39% of all casualties in the country. In previous years Baghdad was always the most violence province. In 2016 it still had the most incidents with 3,420, 45% of the total with 5,319 killed and 13,462 injured or 29% of the total. After that Anbar with 898 incidents, 3,846 dead and 6,617 wounded, Kirkuk with 519 incidents, 1,290 deaths and 1,046 injured, and Salahaddin with 465 incidents, 1,116 fatalities and 1,158 wounded had the most losses. All together, Ninewa, Baghdad, Anbar, Kirkuk, and Salahaddin accounted for 87% the violence and 90% of the reported dead and wounded. After those five only Diyala had any significant attacks with 535 incidents, 571 dead and 673 wounded.

Violence By Province In Iraq 2016
Province
Incidents
% Of Total Incidents
Killed
Wounded
% of Total Casualties
Anbar
898
12%
3,846
6,617
16%
Babil
110
1%
242
399
1%
Baghdad
3,420
45%
5,319
13,462
29%
Basra
46
0%
25
27
0%
Dhi Qar
6
0%
14
27
0%
Diyala
535
7%
571
673
1%
Dohuk
3
0%
7
2
0%
Halabja
1
0%
-
1
0%
Irbil
10
0%
13
16
0%
Karbala
7
0%
36
61
0%
Kirkuk
519
6%
1,290
1,046
3%
KRG
10
0%
215
3
0%
Muthanna
4
0%
41
91
0%
Ninewa
1,394
18%
9,559
15,367
39%
Qadisiyah
1
0%
-
-
0%
Salahaddin
465
6%
1,116
1,158
3%
Sulaymaniya
8
0%
1
25
0%
Wasit
3
0%
1
-
0%

Car and suicide bombings have followed the same general pattern as the average number of incidents per day. There was a drop at the start of the year going from 47 in January to 14 in February before a spike in those types of attacks during the spring offensive reaching a high of 63 in May. Then in the summer there was a lull of 16 in July before they slowly rising to 23 in August, 25 in September, 72 in October, 47 in November, and 76 in December. There were likely more from October-December that were not reported, but occurred during the Battle for Mosul.

Car And Suicide Bombers In Iraq Jan-Oct 2016
Month
Car Bombs
Suicide Bombers
(Not Including Suicide Car Bombs)
Jan
37
10
Feb
9
5
Mar
18
26
Apr
13
25
May
29
34
Jun
14
13
Jul
7
9
Aug
10
13
Sep
17
8
Oct
38
34
Nov
30
17
Dec
72
4


Violence In Iraq 2016 By Month
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
JAN
723
2,418
1,986
FEB
657
1,685
1,724
MAR
683
1,685
2,095
APR
630
1,840
1,904
MAY
675
1,644
2,484
JUN
631
2,111
6,455
Jul 1-7
120
589
635
Jul 8-14
130
243
316
Jul 15-21
123
168
272
Jul 22-28
115
234
366
Jul 29-31
43
95
119
JUL
531
1,329
1,708
Aug 1-7
109
342
255
Aug 8-14
121
176
245
Aug 15-21
155
388
392
Aug 22-28
134
269
312
Aug 29-31
55
88
172
AUG
574
1,263
1,376
Sep 1-7
119
341
381
Sep 8-14
125
197
313
Sep 15-21
137
172
352
Sep 22-28
159
326
469
Sep 29-30
33
167
87
SEP
573
1,203
1,602
Oct 1-7
129
272
344
Oct 8-14
119
184
350
Oct 15-21
131
618
814
Oct 22-28
158
1,165
658
Oct 29-31
52
726
210
OCT
589
2,965
2,376
Nov 1-7
165
793
751
Nov 8-14
149
589
574
Nov 15-21
126
462
591
Nov 22-28
121
436
1,959
Nov 29-30
38
2,109
97
NOV
599
4,389
3,972
Dec 1-7
126
460
1,045
Dec 8-14
123
448
819
Dec 15-21
136
263
272
Dec 22-28
143
247
3,317
Dec 29-31
54
141
6,070
DEC
582
1,559
11,523
2016
7,447
24,091
39,205


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