The game of brinkmanship blew up in the faces of Baghdad and
Irbil on October 16 as talks gave way to fighting in south Kirkuk and Tuz
Kharmato in Salahaddin.
At the start of October 15, the central and Kurdish regional
governments were in the middle of heavy talks to resolve the crisis in Kirkuk.
The problem started when Prime Minister Haidar Abadi mobilized the joint forces
and demanded that the Kurds withdraw from areas they occupied in 2014 including
several military bases, an airport and the Bai Hassan and Avana oil fields in
southern Kirkuk. Baghdad demanded
that the Kurds abide by the constitution and cancel the results of the
September independence referendum. It also accused
the Kurds of moving in fighters from the Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) into Kirkuk in a bald attempt to get Ankara more involved in the dispute.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) rejected
those calls as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK) met in Dokan. Talks were held there because the KDP and PUK were
so far apart on this crisis. The KDP has been steadfast in rejecting
any terms set by Baghdad. It has also been beating the war drum accusing the
Abadi government of acting like the Baath and constantly warning that the
federal government was going to attack Kirkuk. The PUK on the other hand is
divided. Many in the party’s leadership are open to making compromises,
but others such as Kirkuk Governor Najmaldin Karim and Vice President Kosrat
Rasul are siding with the KDP and calling for a defense of Kirkuk. Iranian
General Qasim Suleimani of the Quds Force was also in Kurdistan, while
America’s Brett McGurk arrived in
Baghdad, both trying to mediate. There were reports on social media that the
PUK had made a local deal to allow the federal forces into certain areas of the
province, but that broke down and fighting ensued.
There were clashes in both southern Kirkuk and Tuz Kharmato
in Salahaddin. First, the government had given
the Peshmerga until October 15 to withdraw from several positions in Kirkuk.
That expired,
and talks were still going on between both sides. On October 16, the Golden
Division, the army’s 9th Division, and Federal Police began advancing
along two axes
from Dibis in the west and Hawija in the south towards
the K1 military base and the Bai Hassan and Avana oil fields. When the Golden
Division entered
an industrial district fighting broke out that included mortars and artillery.
There were also clashes in Tuz Kharmato, and the Hashd were said to be moving
to cut
the road from there to Kirkuk.
There are various factors leading to this huge breakdown in
Iraq, but there’s also a good chance that the conflagration won’t last. First,
Kurdish President Massoud Barzani pushed through the independence referendum on
his own without consulting with other Kurdish parties, but rather assuming they
would all come on board, which they didn’t. There was also no preparation for
Baghdad’s response, and the KDP constantly attacked the federal government for
not following the constitution and being a reincarnation of the Saddam regime. Second,
Prime Minister Haidar Abadi was put under intense pressure by parliamentarians
demanding the Kurds be punished for the election. Abadi had to respond to the
KRG as a result imposing a flight ban, talked about shutting down border
points, etc. Third, he took it from those measures that were largely symbolic
to demanding that the Kurds withdraw from southern Kirkuk to their pre-2014
positions, which was a huge escalation and threatened a military confrontation.
That blew up in his face. All the while, Baghdad and Irbil offered talks, but
on terms that neither would agree upon. The Americans started off telling the
Kurds not to hold the referendum, to offering to defuse the situation, but came
in too late. With fighting underway Washington is likely to pressure the two
sides to halt. However, getting the two sides to come together and achieve
anything substantial will be hard at best as the political repercussions of
this clash will run deep.
SOURCES
Baghdad Today News, “Source: clashes between anti-terrorism forces and
the Peshmerga south Kirkuk” 10/16/17
Chmaytelli, Maher, “Iraq says vast areas taken form Kurds in
Kirkuk, Kurds deny gains,” 10/15/17
Chmaytelli, Maher,
Rasheed, Ahmed, “Kurds block Iraqi forces’ access to Kirkuk’s oil fields,
airbase,” 10/15/17
Daily Sabah, “Iraqi,
peshmerga forces in standoff in disputed Kirkuk,” 10/15/17
Al Ghad Press, “Iraqi forces coming from Hawija redeployed towards Dibis
district, Kirkuk,” 10/15/17
Hussein, Mohammed,
Tahir, Rawaz, Kullab, Samya, Van Heuvelen, Ben, Al-Najar, Kamaran, “Battles
erupt in Tuz Khurmatu as KRG-Baghdad crisis escalates,” Iraq Oil Report,
10/14/17
Iraq News Network, “McGurk: My country is supportive of the unity of
Iraq,” 10/16/17
Iraq Newspaper, “Iraqi Forces Occupy the Industrial District In Kirkuk
And The Withdrawal of the 160th Peshmerga Brigade,” 10/16/17
Al Jazeera, “Iraq accuses Kurds of ‘declaration of war’ in Kirkuk,”
10/15/17
- “Iraqi, Kurd
forces in Kirkuk standoff as tensions rise,” 10/15/17
Al Mada, “The meeting of the Kurdish forces agreed on 5 points will be
taken to federal government by the president,” 10/16/17
Al Mirbad, “The governor of Kirkuk calls on the people to take up arms
and defend the province,” 10/16/17
Morris, Loveday and Salim, Mustafa, “Iraqi forces launch operation for
Kurdish-held oil fields, military base,” Washington Post, 10/15/17
NINA, “Talabani’s
elder son proposes to change Kirkuk’s Provincial Council and appoint a new
Governor,” 10/13/17
- “Urgent: A source in the Peshmerga confirms that Iraqi forces are
advancing from two directions and their main objective is to control the oil
fields,” 10/16/17
- “URGENT: Anti-terror forces control first bridge south Kirkuk,”
10/16/17
Reuters, “Iran’s Soleimani arrives in Kurdish region for talks about
crisis about Baghdad,” 10/15/17
- “Kurdish leaders reject Baghdad demand to cancel independence vote,
renew dialogue offer,” 10/15/17
Al Sumaria, “Security forces are gaining control of large areas of
Kirkuk,” 10/16/17
Xinhua, “Baghdad says Erbil must abide by Iraq’s sovereignty, unity
before talks,” 10/15/17
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