Golden Division sitting in Governor Karim’s seat in Kirkuk
City (Rudaw)
Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s move in Kirkuk went from a
possible disaster to an unmitigated success. After fighting broke out in the
morning of October 16 the Kurds withdrew and the Iraqi forces took all the
positions they wanted plus Kirkuk city and areas of northeast Diyala. This was
the result of a deal with the major wing of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK), which has left the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and President Massoud
Barzani hanging high and dry, and threatens the future of the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG).
A short burst of fighting in Kirkuk gave way to a Kurdish withdrawal
in Kirkuk. On the morning of October 16, the Iraqi forces began advancing again
to occupy positions they had abandoned in June 2014 when heavy gunfire started
in Taza
including artillery. That only lasted a short while before the Peshmerga
withdrew. That was orchestrated
by the main wing of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which brokered a
deal with Baghdad. That forced the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) forces to
pull back as well. Not only did they give up all the positions the central
government wanted
such as the K1 military base, the military
airport, and the Bai Hassan and Avana oil
fields, but also the Baba Gargur oil and gas field and Kirkuk
city itself. Governor Najmaldin Karim who was calling for the people to
defend the city fled to Irbil and members of the Golden Division occupied his
office. While hundreds of Kurds were seen fleeing the city, some Arabs and
Turkmen were celebrating the arrival of the federal forces.
The PUK made a similar move in Diyala, and Baghdad may
attempt to force the KDP out of areas of Ninewa as well. The Kurdish forces
left Jawala,
Qara
Tapa, Mandali, and Daquq
in northeast Diyala. That occurred after a meeting
Diyala Governor Muthanna al-Tamimi had with the army chief of staff and the
PUK. Like in Kirkuk, the PUK agreed to allow federal forces back into areas
they held before the Islamic State swept through Iraq in 2014. There were also
reports that the joint forces may want the KDP to vacate Bashiqa
and Mosul Dam in
Ninewa. That might be much more difficult as the KDP is furious over what
happened in Kirkuk. At the same time, they would lose a military confrontation,
so they are between a rock and a hard place.
Prime Minister Abadi came out the big winner. The movement
of forces into Kirkuk could have led to an extended battle with the Kurds.
Baghdad would have won in the end, but the bloodshed would have been costly and
useless in the end. Instead, Abadi found a partner with most of the PUK, which
did not want a fight. The premier got an assist from Iran that was against the
Kurdish referendum, and put pressure on the PUK to compromise. The KDP and some
commentators are pushing the narrative that this was all the work of Tehran.
Abadi is pro-western, so while he was helped by Iran he made this move on his
own, mostly due to pressure from parliament to retaliate against the Kurds for
the referendum.
President Massoud Barzani was the major loser. He was hoping
to turn the referendum into making him the undisputed Kurdish leader, and hold
onto the presidency for life. There was talk of delaying the presidential
election for example scheduled for November, so he could stay in office longer.
Instead he was faced with the consequences of his pursuit of the referendum
with no real plan for its repercussions. He pushed through the election on his
own hoping to force all the other Kurdish parties to join suit. That didn’t
happen, and he infuriated Baghdad, and all of Iraq’s neighbors. Now not only
has he lost standing, but the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) may be no
more. KDP officials are calling the PUK traitors, while
the PUK are calling Barzani a thief. It’s likely that
Kurdistan will revert to its 1990s status with the KDP controlling its areas,
Irbil and Dohuk, and the PUK Sulaymaniya and Halabja. The KRG economy has also
taken a hit. The Avana and Bai Hassan oil fields in Kirkuk provided roughly
half of the region’s revenues. Now they are back in the federal government’s
control. The oil will still need to go through the Kurdish pipeline to reach
Turkey for export, but Ankara has the upper hand with the line, and is mad at
the KDP and Barzani as well for the referendum. It could shut down all Kurdish
exports through the line if it wanted to if Barzani tried to stop federal oil
from flowing through it. The Kurdistan government has been broke since Baghdad
cut off its share of the budget and oil prices plummeted. It also took advances
from oil traders for its exports incurring huge debts in return. With the loss
of the two Kirkuk fields its finances will be even worse off. Finally, all the
time and money the KDP and KRG invested in building international support did
not pay off as neither Turkey nor the west came out for the referendum, and the
U.S. said it was not
taking sides in the Kirkuk conflict. There is no other direction for Barzani
to go now but down from here.
The PUK is expecting huge concessions for their move and the
major wing of the party is hoping that its rivals are done for now. In return
for withdrawing from Kirkuk the PUK is likely expecting Baghdad to pay for its
civil servants and perhaps its Peshmerga as well. Iran has shut down its border
crossings with Sulaymaniya hurting trade and tariffs for the PUK. That will
likely end. Hero Ibrahim, Pavel Talabani and others in the family are hoping to
use those to put their enemies within the party away. Already Kirkuk Governor
Karim fled to Irbil, and KRG Vice President Kosrat Rasul who made a big deal of
leading thousands of Peshmerga to defend Kirkuk has egg on his face like
President Barzani for leaving. Those two had thrown in with the KDP and will
now suffer the consequences. The PUK has felt sidelined by the KDP and by the
rise of the Change Movement for the last couple years. Now it can feel that it
has solidified its hold over its two provinces, and helped deliver a large blow
to the KDP and its inter party rivals.
SOURCES
Bas News, “Kurds Escaping Kirkuk as Hashd al-Shaabi Militias Enter,”
10/16/17
- “Peshmerga Ordered to Fight to the Last Man in Defence of Kirkuk,”
10/16/17
BBC, “Iraqi forces enter Kirkuk as Kurds flee,” 10/16/17
Buratha News, “Commander of the Kurdistan anti-terrorism forces: We will
not allow our children to die for the outgoing President Massoud Barzani,”
10/16/17
- “Evacuation of the headquarters of the Kurdish parties in Mandali east
Diyala,” 10/16/17
Chmaytelli, Maher,
Mahmoud, Mustafa, “Iraqi forces seize oil city Kirkuk from Kurds in bold
advance,” Reuters, 10/16/17
Al Forat, “Peshmerga burning its headquarters before its withdrawal from
Daquq,” 10/16/17
Al Ghad Press, “Joint operations warn insurgents in Kirkuk of being
exposed to the security forces,” 10/16/17
Iraq News App, “URGENT: Military Media Cell issues the first news about
the security operation in Kirkuk,” 10/16/17
Al Jazeera, “Baghdad:
Iraqi forces in full control of Kirkuk,” 10/16/17
- “Peshmerga:
Baghdad to pay heavy price for declaring war,” 10/16/17
Kemp, Ted, Chandran,
Nyshka, DiChristopher, Tom, “Iraq made ‘declaration of war’ when its troops
seized parts of oil-rich region, Kurdish forces say,” CNBC, 10/16/17
Al Maalomah, “Law enforcement is moving to liberate the Mosul Dam from
the Peshmerga,” 10/16/17
Morris, Loveday and Salim, Mustafa, “Iraqis seize military base, oil
field from Kurdish forces near contested Kirkuk,” Washington Post, 10/16/17
Mostafa, Nehal,
“Iraqi forces to attack two Peshmerga-controlled regions near Mosul,” Iraqi
News, 10/16/17
Al-Najaf, Kamaran, Tahir, Rawaz, Hussein, Mohammed, Kullab, Samya, Lando,
Ben, “Baghdad retakes Kirkuk oil fields,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/16/17
Al Najar, Kamaran, Tahir, Rawaz and Hussein, Mohammed, “Violence as
federal forces move further toward Kirkuk,” Iraqi Oil Report, 10/16/17
NINA, “Governor of Kirkuk: The situation in the province is good and
stable and tomorrow will be an official work,” 10/16/17
- “Peshmerga Forces Begin To Withdraw From Their HQs In Qara Taba Of
Diyala,” 10/16/17
- “The Security forces entered Jalawla northeast of Baquba from three
axes,” 10/16/17
Al Noor News, “Urgent … Peshmerga Forces Of The Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan Leave Their Positions To The Iraqi Forces Advance,” 10/16/17
Sotaliraq, “Diyala … Governor announces the redeployment of security
forces in the disputed areas,” 10/17/17
Zavis, Alexandra and
Bulos, Nabih, “Clashes break out as Iraqi forces take control of Kurdish-held installations
around Kirkuk,” Los Angeles Times, 10/16/17
Zucchino, David, “Iraqi Forces Sweep Into Kirkuk, Checking Kurdish
Independence Drive,” New York Times, 10/16/17
6 comments:
No doubt am out of date but my recollection is that historically the KDP has been aligned with Iran and Barzani? What gives?
Back during the Mullah Mustafa days and the Shah, Iran was one of the main supporters because Tehran was using them against Baghdad. Iran would routinely turn off and on support depending upon its relationship with Iraq. The KDP was backed by Iran during the Iran-Iraq War under Massoud Barzani as well. Today Barzani is aligned with Turkey however and the PUK with Iran, although that can vary depending upon which member of the family and party you're talking about.
No doubt PUK have many old scores to settle. Will this nullify all the good work of the '90s when the US resolved the civil war between the two?
It definitely looks like KRG is heading towards 2 administrations like the 90s with a PUK and a KDP zone
Looks like the Kurds survived the wreckings of the dolts Obama & Biden only to fall when the battle is won due to Barzani's old fashioned, long out of date, yearnings for a mini soviet empire.
A KRG is essential if the Iraqi Kurds are to continue building a modern democratic state to stand as a model to the Arabs.
Today Baghdad is more democratic than the KRG. Barzani's term expired years ago, he dismissed the parliament and got rid of Change's ministers, they have not issued any budgets or reports on their oil exports for some time either. Politics continue to be dominated by two families as well.
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