March 2018 The Return Of The Islamic State Insurgency

In October 2017, the Islamic State’s Al-Naba newspaper called on its followers to switch to an insurgency like it did after the Surge. Faced with offensives by the Iraqi government backed by the U.S. led Coalition, the militants could no longer hold ground and suffer such heavy losses at the same time. As a result, the operations to free the last pieces of territory that IS held in Iraq were met with little resistance as Islamic State fighters fell back to regroup. Five months later and the insurgency has finally re-emerged. The number of incidents is still relatively flat since Al Naba’s announcement in October, but the type of attacks has definitively changed with bolder operations and an attempt to gain control of rural areas across the center of Iraq.

The Islamic State is rebuilding in specific areas. Those include western Anbar along the Syrian border with networks that reach into the central Fallujah-Ramadi corridor all the way to Amiriya Fallujah in the east. That is reportedly where attacks into northwest Babil stretching from Iskandiriya to Jurf al-Sakhr are allegedly coming from. In Baghdad, the southern and northern towns such as Yusifiya, Madain, Mahmudiya and Tarmiya continue to be hotbeds. The militants are active in nearly all the rural areas of Diyala from the Hamrin Mountains in the northeast to Qara Tappa in the north to Sadiya in the center to Mandali in the east to Abu Saida in the west. The Islamic State never left Hawija in southwest Kirkuk, and has cells within Kirkuk city as well. Western and southern Ninewa also have active insurgent elements, and in Salahaddin, IS is working in the northern district of Shirqat and in the Hamrin and Makhoul Mountains in the east.

There was a decided escalation in the types of attacks IS launched in March. That included more gun fights and ambushes of the security forces in Anbar, Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin. There were also more deadly and sophisticated operations such as an attack upon a parliamentarian’s motorcade in Baghdad where two bodyguards were taken away. Police and Hashd were kidnapped and often killed in Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin in eight separate incidents. The Islamic State also began setting up four fake checkpoints to kidnap and executed civilians and members of the security forces in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahaddin. IS is also attempting to intimidate and eliminate local officials and members of the security forces as seen by the assassination of 2 mayors in Diyala, burning tribal Hashd homes in Kirkuk, and kidnapping sheikhs in southern Ninewa. These were all tactics the militants utilized before in its comeback after the Surge.

These operations do not mean that there will suddenly be a huge surge in attacks. Those have been stable since the October shift to an insurgency. In that month, there were an average of 9.2 incidents per day, followed by 9.8 in November, 8.4 in December, 9.6 in January, 8.7 in February, and 9.9 in March. Anbar saw a sharp decline in attacks starting in December 2017, but have recently gone up from 0.3 per day in January to 0.4 in February, to 0.8 in March. Baghdad saw a large jump from 2.1 incident per day in December up to 3.3 in January and 3.1 in February. In March however, those suddenly dropped to just 2.2. Violence in Diyala and Salahaddin continues to fluctuate up and down with increases in March. After the federal forces took over security in Kirkuk there has been a steady increase in attacks. Ninewa is the exact opposite where violence has gone down continuously since 2017. What this change does point to is deadlier attacks occurring more often. If IS stays to form that will be followed by car and suicide bombs, which have been drastically down since the start of the year. Finally, if the insurgents can consolidate in the rural areas they will move into the cities.

 

This rebirth is being facilitated by shortcomings of the Iraqi forces. In rural areas, the ISF has little presence, and there have been repeated reports that they withdraw during the night out of fear of the insurgents. In those same areas, Iraqi intelligence is also said to be failing to collect information. In Kirkuk and parts of Salahaddin, there are gaps between the Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga and no cooperation, which has opened space for IS. Finally, the repeated security sweeps, 23 during March alone, are accomplishing little. Stashes of weapons are found, some arrests are made, there are occasional confrontations with militants, but as soon as they are over the Iraqi forces withdraw and IS moves back in. There are not enough security forces to be everywhere all the time, but the Iraqi government needs to forge a strategy where they build up local neighborhood watch groups that can call in the security forces for assistance when confronted by the Islamic State. Iraq intelligence needs to spread out to those same rural areas to detect IS cells and eliminate them. Finally, there needs to be cooperation between the federal and Kurdish governments to help secure Kirkuk. The United States is said to be attempted to achieve that through meetings, and the Peshmerga may be able to return to some areas they were pushed out of by Baghdad. If the Iraqi government has any hope of retarding this process it has to act now while the insurgency is still in its infancy of re-emerging.

Casualties In Iraq By Province Feb-Mar 2018

Province	Feb 2018	Mar 2018
Anbar	51 (14 K, 37 W)	122 (53 K, 69 W)
Babil	6 (6 W)	15 (1 K, 14 W)
Baghdad	195 (49 K, 146 W)	128 (36 K, 92 W)
Basra	1 (1 W)	-
Dhi Qar	2 (1 K, 1 W)	-
Diyala	43 (24 K, 19 W)	88 (50 K, 38 W)
Dohuk	-	3 (3K)
Irbil	-	156 (154 K, 2 W)
Kirkuk	70 (50 K, 20 W)	103 (53 K, 50W)
KRG	53 (51 K, 2 W)	21 (20 K, 1 W)
Ninewa	427 (418 K, 9 W)	211 (188 K, 23 W)
Salahaddin	76 (42 K, 34 W)	103 (53 K, 50 W)
Sulaymaniya	-	-

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Feb-Mar 2018

Province	Feb	Mar
Anbar	12	25
Babil	2	7
Baghdad	88	70
Basra	1	-
Dhi Qar	1	-
Diyala	28	58
Dohuk	-	3
Irbil	-	13
Karbala	-	-
Kirkuk	49	49
KRG	2	7
Ninewa	42	39
Salahaddin	19	36
Sulaymaniya	1	-

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611	339

Weekly Violence By Province In Iraq, March 2018

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Anbar	7 Incidents 1 Killed 1 ISF 11 Wounded 3 Hashd 8 ISF 2 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Car    Bomb    Destroyed	3 Incidents 4 Wounded 2 Civilians 2 ISF 1 IED 1 Grenade 1 Car Bomb    Destroyed	5 Incidents 28 Killed 11 ISF 17 Civilians 43 Wounded 11 ISF 32 Civilians 2 Shootings 3 IEDs	7 Incidents 14 Killed 1 Civilian 13 ISF 9 Wounded 2 Civilians 7 ISF 2 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Rocket	3 Incidents 10 Killed 4 ISF 6 Civilians 2 Wounded 2 ISF 3 IEDs

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Babil	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Hashd 4 Wounded 4 Hashd 1 Shooting 2 Suicide     Bombers     Killed	1 Incident 4 Wounded 4 Hashd 1 IED	4 Incidents 2 Wounded 2 Hashd 1 Shooting 1 IED	-	1 Incident 4 Wounded 4 Hashd 1 IED

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Baghdad	24 Incidents 12 Killed 1 ISF 11 Civilians 33 Wounded 33 Civilians 6 Shootings 11 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 2 Grenades	17 Incidents 11 Killed 11 Civilians 28 Wounded 28 Civilians 5 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Grenade	14 Incidents 6 Killed 1 Hashd 5 Civilians 15 Wounded 1 Hashd 14 Civilians 4 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Grenade 2 Suicide     Bombers     Killed	11 Incidents 6 Killed 6 Civilians 12 Wounded 12 Civilians 4 Shootings 4 IEDs	4 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Civilian 4 Wounded 4 Civilians 2 Shootings 1 IED

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Diyala	12 Incidents 3 Killed 3 Civilians 11 Wounded 2 ISF 3 Hashd 3 Civilians 7 Shootings 1 IED 2 Suicide    Bombers    Killed	7 Incidents 4 Killed 1 Civilian 3 ISF 2 Wounded 2 Civilians 5 Shootings 5 IEDs	9 Incidents 7 Killed 2 Civilians 5 ISF 4 Wounded 1 ISF 3 Civilians 4 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Mortars	25 Incidents 36 Killed 5 Hashd 14 ISF 17 Civilians 16 Wounded 5 Civilians 11 Hashd 9 Shootings 9 IEDs 3 Mortars 1 Rocket	5 Incidents 5 Wounded 1 Hashd 4 ISF 4 Shootings 1 IED

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Dohuk	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Civilian 1 Turkish    Shelling	-	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Civilian 1 Turkish Air    Strike	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Civilian 1 Turkish Air    Strike	-

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Irbil	2 Incidents 2 Killed 1 Civilian 1 KDPI 2 Wounded 2 KDPI 1 Shooting 1 Sticky Bomb	-	4 Incidents 45 Killed 20 Turkish    Soldiers 25 PKK 2 Shootings 1 Turkish Air    Strike	6 Incidents 106 Killed 2 Civilians 2 Peshmerga 102 PKK 4 Turkish Air    Strikes	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 KDPI 1 Shooting

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Kirkuk	12 Incidents 11 Killed 1 Civilian 2 Hashd 7 ISF 7 Wounded 7 ISF 8 Shootings 1 IED 1 Mortar 1 Grenade 1 Suicide    Bomber    Killed	16 Incidents 17 Killed 3 Hashd 14 Civilians 19 Wounded 3 Civilians 16 Hashd 6 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Suicide    Motorcycle    Bomber 1 Rocket 5 Suicide     Bombers     Killed 1 Car Bomb     Dismantled	9 Incidents 19 Killed 1 ISF 6 Hashd 12 Civilians 10 Wounded 2 ISF 3 Civilians 5 Hashd 6 Shootings 3 IEDs	11 Incidents 6 Killed 1 Hashd 5 Civilians 12 Wounded 3 Hashd 9 Civilians 2 Shootings 3 IEDs 3 Sound Bombs 2 Mortars 1 Car Bomb	1 Incident 2 Wounded 1 Civilian 1 ISF 1 Sticky Bomb

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
KRG	1 Incident 4 Killed 4 PKK 1 Turkish Air    Strike	-	-	6 Incidents 16 Killed 1 Turkish Soldier 3 Civilians 12 PKK 1 Wounded 1 Civilian 5 Turkish Air    Strike	-

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Ninewa	12 Incidents 81 Killed 13 ISF 68 Civilians 8 Wounded 8 ISF 7 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Car Bomb     Destroyed	10 Incidents 36 Killed 7 Hashd 29 Civilians 4 Wounded 1 Hashd 3 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 2 Suicide    Bombers    Arrested	10 Incidents 52 Killed 5 ISF 47 Civilians 1 Wounded 1 Civilian 5 Shootings 1 IED 1 Grenade	6 Incidents 14 Killed 2 Hashd 3 ISF 9 Civilians 10 Wounded 10 ISF 4 Shootings 2 IEDs	1 Incident 5 Killed 5 ISF 1 Shooting

	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31
Salahaddin	6 Incidents 4 Killed 1 Civilian 3 ISF 8 Wounded 3 ISF 5 Peshmerga 2 Shootings 2 IEDs 3 Suicide    Bombers    Killed	6 Incidents 16 Killed 1 ISF 15 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs	11 Incidents 10 Killed 4 ISF 6 Civilians 23 Wounded 8 ISF 15 Civilians 10 Shootings 1 IED	8 Incidents 14 Killed 1 Hashd 2 Civilians 11 ISF 1 Wounded 1 ISF 6 Shootings 1 IED	5 Incidents 9 Killed 9 Hashd 18 Hashd 18 Hashd 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Suicide    Bomber 2 Suicide    Bombers    Killed

Violence By Province March 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	25 Incidents 53 Killed 24 Civilians 29 ISF 69 Wounded 3 Hashd 30 ISF 36 Civilians 6 Shootings 15 IEDs 1 Rocket 1 Grenade 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Babil	7 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd 14 Wounded 14 Hashd 2 Shootings 3 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Baghdad	70 Incidents 36 Killed 1 ISF 1 Hashd 34 Civilians 92 Wounded 1 Hashd 91 Civilians 21 Shootings 30 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 4 Grenades 2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Diyala	58 Incidents 50 Killed 5 Hashd 22 ISF 23 Civilians 38 Wounded 7 ISF 13 Civilians 15 Hashd 29 Shootings 20 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 5 Mortars 1 Rocket 2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Dohuk	3 Incidents 3 Killed 3 Civilians 3 Turkish Air Strikes
Irbil	13 Incidents 154 Killed 2 KDPI 2 Peshmerga 3 Civilians 20 Turkish Soldiers 127 PKK 2 Wounded 2 KDPI 4 Shootings 1 Sticky Bomb 5 Turkish Air Strikes
Kirkuk	49 Incidents 53 Killed 8 ISF 12 Hashd 32 Civilians 50 Wounded 10 ISF 16 Civilians 24 Hashd 2 Shootings 11 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 3 Sound Bombs 3 Mortars 1 Rocket 1 Grenade 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 1 Car Bomb 6 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
KRG	7 Incidents 20 Killed 1 Turkish Soldier 3 Civilians 16 PKK 1 Wounded 1 Civilian 6 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	39 Incidents 188 Killed 26 ISF 9 Hashd 153 Civilians 23 Wounded 1 Hashd 4 Civilians 18 ISF 20 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Grenade 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Salahaddin	36 Incidents 53 Killed 10 Hashd 19 ISF 24 Civilians 50 Wounded 5 Peshmerga 12 ISF 15 Civilians 18 Hashd 23 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 5 Suicide Bombers Killed

SOURCES

Anadolu Agency, "Daesh ambush leaves 8 police officers dead in Iraq," 3/24/18

Baghdad Post, "Gunmen attack checkpoint in Kirkuk," 3/10/18

- "IMIS militant killed by ISIS terrorist in eastern Salahuddin," 3/29/18

Bas News, "Dozens of Hashd al-Shaabi Fighters, IS Militants Killed as Clash Breaks out in Hawija," 3/6/18

Buratha News, "Security forces foiled an attempt by terrorists to infiltrate Shirqat," 3/13/18

- "Terrorist attempt to sneak into Diyala from Salahaddin was thwarted," 3/16/18

Ebraheem, Mohammed, "Eight Iraqi soldiers killed, injured in Islamic State attack on Anbar roadblock," Iraqi News, 3/16/18

- "Four Islamic State militants killed in clashes with pro-govt troops in Diyala," Iraqi News, 3/6/18

- "Four policeman killed in confrontation with Islamic State in Mosul," Iraqi News, 3/5/18

- "Iraqi troops kill seven Islamic State militants in Nineveh province," Iraqi News, 3/18/18

- Mohammed, "IS militants kill two people, kidnap three others at fake checkpoint in Kirkuk," Iraqi News, 3/20/18

Al Forat, “Tamimi calls on Abadi to intervene immediately to stop the deterioration of security in Diyala,” 3/5/18

Al Ghad Press, "Aborted attack on a security checkpoint southeast of Baquba," 3/16/18

- "The injury of three Daash members and the disappearance of another in an attack northeast Diyala," 3/1/18

- "The outcome of the clashes between the crowd and Daash in Amiriya Fallujah," 3/5/18

Goran, Baxtiyar, "IS kills several Iraqi security members in separate attacks in eastern Iraq," Kurdistan 24, 3/15/18

Hassan, Hassan, “Insurgents Again: The Islamic State’s Calculated Reversion To Attrition In The Syria-Iraq Border Region And Beyond,” CTC Sentinel, 12/21/17

Hath Al-Youm, "Diyala announces a big Daash attack: Village women fought for more than an hour," 3/30/18

- "Seven policemen from Dhi Qar were killed along with their driver in an ambush near Baquba," 3/22/18

Iraq Newspaper, "Armed Attack On Patrol In Central Ramadi," 3/4/18

- "Attack On Road And Killing 5 Members Of The Popular Crowd By Terrorists," 3/21/18

- "A Battle in Samarra And A Terrorist Explosive Charge In Ishaqi North Baghdad," 3/17/18

- "A Car Bomb Exploded On Ninety Street In Kirkuk And Two People Were Kidnapped From Mosul," 3/13/18

- "A Fierce Battle Between The 11th Brigade Of The Popular Crowd And Terrorists In Kirkuk," 3/5/18

- "The Killing And Wounding Of 5 Of The Popular Crowd In A Terrorist Ambush Near The Iranian Border," 3/26/18

- "The Killing And Wounding Of A Whole Family In Diyala In A Terrorist Attack," 3/24/18

- "Security Source: Daash Terrorists Executed 5 Soldiers In Mosul," 3/30/18

- "Seven Soldiers Were Killed From The 66th Battalion, 20th Brigade Mourns Four Of Its Soldiers In Mosul," 3/2/18

- "Terrorists Publishing Pictures Of The Burning Of 11 Homes Of The Popular Crowd In Kirkuk On Twitter," 3/27/18

- "Terrorists Surround The Fifth Brigade In Sinjar, Mosul," 3/7/18

- "Wounding A Number Of Members Of The Federal Police In A Daash Terrorist Attack Targeting The Abbasi District In The Hawija District Southwest Kirkuk," 3/3/18

Al Maalomah, "21 civilians, including children, were killed and wounded between Daquq and al-Tuz," 3/20/18

- "The popular crowd foils the infiltration of criminals near Hamrin," 3/14/18

- "The popular crowd repulsed an offensive in Metibija east Salahaddin," 3/27/18

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Iraqi tribal fighter killed in Islamic State attack in Kirkuk," Iraqi News, 3/27/18

- "Source: Iraqi forces kill 3 Islamic State fighters in Kirkuk," Iraqi News, 3/6/18

Mostafa, Nehal, "10 police personnel likely to be abducted during clashes against IS, south of Kirkuk: Source," Iraqi News, 3/21/18

- "Five people killed, injured as Islamic State launches attack, west of Kirkuk," Iraqi News, 3/19/18

- "Four army personnel wounded in armed attack, south of Salahuddin," Iraqi News, 3/21/18

- "Iraqi joint troops foil Islamic State attacks, shell militants, south of Salahuddin," Iraqi News, 3/8/18

- "Paramilitary troops repel two Islamic State attacks, free four abducted personnel in Salahuddin," Iraqi News, 3/20/18

- "Security personnel killed, two others injured in Islamic State attack, northwest of Kirkuk," Iraqi News, 3/19/18

NINA, "An Attack To Daesh On A Security Point For The Tribal Mobilization North Of Baquba Foiled," 3/28/19

-"An attack by Daesh of two axes on a liberated village north of Baquba foiled," 3/30/18

- "The dead body of a kidnapped paramedic was found northeast of Baquba," 3/6/18

- "The Federal Police repulsed an attack to Daesh in the district of Makhmour southeast of Mosul," 3/1/18

- "Foiled two attacks by Daash on two villages north of Baquba," 3/11/18

- "Four policemen killed, twenty Islamic State State members arrested in Mosul," Iraqi News, 3/20/18

- "The Popular Crowd repulsed a mobile detachment for Daesh in the border Hill of Safouk," 3/18/18

- "Six of the tribal crowd killed and wounded west of Kirkuk," 3/19/18

- "Three members of the popular crowd wounded in an attack in northeastern Baquba," 3/2/18

Rudaw, "3 Peshmerga wounded after ISIS kills shepherd in Kifri," 3/2/18

Shafaaq News, "Eight people were killed and wounded in an attack upon the popular crowd near Tuz Kharmato," 3/11/18

- "Iraq … Daash kill and burn 25 people in separate attacks," 3/12/18

Sotaliraq, "Two soldiers killed in a Daesh attack south of Mosul," 3/27/18

Al Sumaria, "The bodies of two customs agents were found hours after they were kidnapped north Diyala," 3/8/18

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- "Local source: one fighter from the popular crowd wounded in a Daesh attack north-east Diyala," 3/30/18

- "Local source: Seven soldiers were killed and seven others wounded in an armed attack southeast al-Rutba," 3/15/18

- "Security forces and Sayara Salam thwart an attack by Daesh southwest of Samarra," 3/24/18

- "A soldier was wounded by a shooting at a checkpoint northeast of Baquba," 3/16/18

- "Thwarted an assassination attempt on a deputy in Baghdad and abducted two of his bodyguards," 3/8/18

- "Two members of Daash were killed in clashes with popular crowd forces southwest Kirkuk," 3/7/18

Xinhua, "2 soldiers killed in clash with gunmen in central Iraq," 3/26/18

- "7 IS militants killed in clashes with security forces in central Iraq," 3/15/18

- "9 killed in insurgent attacks in central Iraq," 3/25/18