Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Islamic State Not Following Their Usual Pattern In Attacks In Iraq

(Al Maalomah)
September 2019 was the second month in a row that incidents in Iraq went up. Usually the Islamic State launches a spring-summer offensive and then during the fall things start quieting down. This year, there was a spike in attacks in May, little during the summer, but then they have gone back up in the fall. The militants are in the process of rebuilding, trying to preserve their cadre and leadership, and are obviously changing their strategy as a result.

 

There were a total of 123 incidents recorded in Iraq in September 2019. One incident was by the pro-Iran Hashd firing rockets into the Green Zone, and there were also three mass graves found in Anbar and Ninewa. That meant there were 119 attacks by the Islamic State during the month. That was up from 82 in July and 103 in August, and the highest monthly total since 135 in May. As usual, Diyala with 37 incidents led the country. Baghdad however had 24, the most since October 2018.

There were only three incidents in Anbar in September, likely the fewest since the U.S. invasion. Attacks have steadily been going down in the province since a large spike at the start of the year. Anbar used to be one of the centers of the insurgency, but now it’s mostly being used as a transit point between Syria and Iraq.

Babil continued to be an opportunistic target for the militants. In August, there were 8 attacks, the most since June 2018. In September that figure fell to 3, which was the average number per month from April to July. Jurf al-Sakhr in the northeast is almost always the area hit because it is a Hashd base. It looks like IS was trying out the province last month, and moved on to other areas in September.

The insurgents have slowly but surely infiltrated back into Baghdad, and September showed that they had some limited success. There were 25 incidents during the month the most since 30 in October 2018. Attacks hit a nadir of 4 in March, and creeped back up every month since then. Not only that, but September 7 and September 16 there were five IEDs on each day inside the city itself. Usually, IS has been kept on the perimeter, mostly the outer towns in the north and south. This was a huge advance for the group. October the numbers are going to go down, because it halted operations during the protests, but it will be interesting to see if it can build on this in November or whether the security forces will be able to counter it.

Ninewa continued to see wide fluctuations in IS activity. In May, there were 25 incidents. That went down to 10 in June, 6 in July, and 9 in August before rising to 22 in September. Almost all the attacks last month were IEDs, but a mukhtar was assassinated, and mortars were fired on Mosul.

Salahaddin like Anbar appeared to no longer be a priority. There have been single digit incidents in the province for four months straight with just 10 in September. With major bases in the Hamrin and Makhoul Mountains this might be where the group is hoping to lay low and rebuild rather than carry out operations for now.

Diyala, and to a lesser extent Kirkuk remain the major centers of violence in the country. There were 37 incidents in Diyala down from 42 in August, and 22 incidents in Kirkuk, almost the same as he 21 recorded in August. Diyala sees a constant diet of gun battles, attacks upon checkpoints, towns being assaulted, and people being driven out of rural areas. In September, the militants went back to hitting nearly all the major districts in the province. IS is doing the same in Kirkuk, but at a slower pace, and concentrating upon the south. There was an attack upon a police station, and an army base, and a police HQ was hit by mortars during the month. Here the insurgents are challenging the local government and security forces and setting up new areas to build bases to rebuild and train new cadres. The goal in both these provinces appears to be to re-establish base camps via a relatively high pace of operations compared to the rest of the country.

Finally, the Islamic State carried out a rare car bombing outside of Karbala city. IS has hardly set off any vehicle bombs the entire year. It has also not really hit the south either, so this was an especially surprising event. The group’s networks are obviously highly damaged. Caches found by the security forces show that it has plenty of explosives, but it doesn’t have the people to deliver them and then employ them otherwise these types of incidents would be far more common.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
Province
Sep 1-7
Sep 8-14
Sep 15-21
Sep 22-28
Sep 29-30
Anbar
1
1
1
-
-
Babil
1
-
1
-
1
Baghdad
7
3
8
7
-
Diyala
14
9
4
9
1
Karbala
-
-
1
-
-
Kirkuk
2
11
5
3
1
Ninewa
9
3
2
4
4
Salahaddin
5
3
1
1
-
TOTAL
39
30
23
24
7

Casualties In Iraq By Province
Province
Sep 1-7
Sep 8-14
Sep 15-21
Sep 22-28
Sep 29-30
Anbar
-
15 (15K)
4 (4K)
-
-
Babil
3 (1K, 2W)
-
1 (1W)
-
2 (2W)
Baghdad
16 (2K, 14W)
6 (2K, 4W)
17 (4K, 13W)
6 (2K, 4W)
-
Diyala
19 (6K, 13W)
16 (5K, 11W)
3 (1K, 2W)
13 (9K, 4W)
-
Karbala
-
-
17 (12K, 5W)
-
-
Kirkuk
2 (2W)
13 (2K, 11W)
7 (5K, 2W)
8 (4K, 4W)
-
Ninewa
22 (17K, 5W)
21 (11K, 10W)
3 (1K, 2W)
8 (8W)
8 (6K, 2W)
Salahaddin
15 (13K, 2W)
7 (7W)
1 (1W)
-

TOTAL
77 (39K, 38W)
78 (35K, 43W)
53 (27 K, 26W)
35 (15 K, 20W)
10 (6K, 4W)

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-19
Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
219
198
47
43
5
13
25
3
1
Jan 2019
21
2
3
8
-
-
1
-
-
Feb
18
2
5
7
-
-
3
-
-
Mar
7
6
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
13
15
2
4
1
-
1
-
-
May
11
13
3
5
-
-
13
(9 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
15
8
2
4
-
1
-
1
-
Jul
7
12
2
4
-
-
2
-
-
Aug
21
12
3
7
-
1
1
1
-
Sep
18
18
2
5
-
-
3
-
-
2019
Totals
131
88
23
46
1
2
24
2
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
172
182
39
18
10
14
29
9
6
Jan 2019
8
17
-
4
2
3
-
-
1
Feb
9
5
3
-
-
2
1
-
-
Mar
5
11
2
1
2
-
2
-
-
Apr
5
9
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
May
11
18
2
3
1
-
13
(13 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
5
10
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Jul
2
10
-
-
-
1
2
-
-
Aug
9
6
10
-
-
1
-
-
-
Sep
6
10
-
2
1
1
-
-
-
2019
Totals
60
96
21
12
6
8
18
-
1

Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
139
74
43
7
5
6
6
2
3
Jan 2019
6
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
8
3
2
2
-
-
1
-
1
Mar
6
1
3
-
-
-
1
-
1
Apr
6
6
1
-
1
2
2
-
-
May
8
8
1
-
1
2
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
1
Jun
2
5
-
-
1
-
4
(4 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jul
2
2
-
-
1
1
2
-
-
Aug
3
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
-
Sep
3
10
-
-
2
1
-
-
-
2019
Totals
44
37
7
2
7
6
17
-
3

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
110
102
41
18
1
16
4
9
5
Jan 2019
5
5
3
1
-
3
-
-
1
Feb
7
11
3
-
-
2
1
1
-
Mar
3
5
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Apr
2
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
May
10
9
4
1
1
-
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
4
3
2
-
1
-
-
-
-
Jul
3
6
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
Aug
5
1
1
-
-
1
1
-
1
Sep
6
3
4
1
-
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
45
45
22
4
2
6
8
1
4

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018-19
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad/Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar/Ramadi
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul
2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
3
Dec
-
1
(1 – Ninewa)
1
Jan
1
(1 – Anbar)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
4
Feb
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
2
Mar
-
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
1
Apr
-
2
(1 – Anbar
1 - Salahaddin)
2
May
1
(1 – Baghdad)
3
(2 – Anbar
1 – Ninewa)
4
Jun
1
(1 – Diyala)
-
1
Jul
2 (2 – Baghdad/Malif)
-
2
Aug
1
(1 – Diyala)
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
Sep
-
1
(1 – Karbala)
1

Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
Dead
(Total/By IS)
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7
62/60
45
63
Jan 8-14
58/56
58/56
66/63
Jan 15-21
62/59
151
151
Jan 22-28
59/51
140/136
65/63
Jan 29-31
24
21
21
JAN 2018
265/
250 by IS
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
366/
361 by IS
Feb 1-7
58/56
192/141
62/60
Feb 8-14
57
58
91
Feb 15-21
53/52
343
43
Feb 22-28
46/44
38/37
70/68
FEB
214/
209 by IS
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
266/
262 by IS
Mar 1-7
68/64
115/108
79/77
Mar 8-14
52
75
59
Mar 15-21
64/59
165/119
98
Mar 22-28
77/64
210/87
61/60
Mar 29-31
19/18
26/25
34
MAR
280/
257 by IS
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
331/
328 by IS
Apr 1-7
38/34
172/140
27/25
Apr 8-14
60/52
173/136
81/72
Apr 15-21
43/35
63/18
72/70
Apr 22-28
40/31
60/30
39/33
Apr 29-30
12/11
14/11
4
APR
193/
163 by IS
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
223/
204 by IS
May 1-7
45/39
52/43
55/54
May 8-14
55/51
68/46
49
May 15-21
35/32
55/26
80/75
May 22-28
49/46
72/62
51/49
May 29-31
16/13
39/30
15
MAY
200/
181 by IS
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
250/
242 by IS
Jun 1-7
50/44
96/87
29/28
Jun 8-14
67/59
107/47
88
Jun 15-21
40/35
82/28
19
Jun 22-28
45/44
53/38
62
Jun 29-30
17/15
21/16
14
JUN
219/
197 by IS
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
212/
211 by IS
Jul 1-7
50/49
56/52
90
Jul 8-14
42/39
56/47
31
Jul 15-21
50/45
59/42
63
Jul 22-28
29/24
61/53
19/15
Jul 29-31
23/21
25/13
11
JUL
194/
178 by IS
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
214/
210 by IS
Aug 1-7
43/39
49/45
30/29
Aug 8-14
43/42
38
44
Aug 15-21
38/35
24/21
40/37
Aug 22-28
35/31
25/19
61
Aug 29-31
27/24
68/30
43
AUG
186/
171 by IS
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
218/
214 by IS
Sep 1-7
38
44
54
Sep 8-14
48/43
63/55
127
Sep 15-21
44/38
90/74
70
Sep 22-28
36/33
22/17
27/26
Sep 29-30
9/6
19/10
29/25
SEP
175/
158 by IS
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
307/
302 by IS
Oct 1-7
54/49
85/25
92
Oct 8-14
43/41
161/152
41
Oct 15-21
54/50
87/72
35
Oct 22-28
24/23
24/20
53
Oct 29-31
23
10
24
OCT
198/
186 by IS
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
245 by IS
Nov 1-7
32/31
75/69
36
Nov 8-14
39/31
111/63
19
Nov 15-21
30/27
51/43
29
Nov 22-28
26/21
35/25
30
Nov 29-30
9/8
4
27
NOV
136/
118 by IS
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
141 by IS
Dec 1-7
22/15
21/8
11
Dec 8-14
22
15
22
Dec 15-21
23/21
23/16
17
Dec 22-28
30/28
24/18
37
Dec 29-31
15/14
225/220
4
DEC
112/
100 by IS
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
91 by IS
Jan 1-7
32/31
17/10
24
Jan 8-14
32/30
94/31
53
Jan 15-21
22/18
17/11
16/14
Jan 22-28
27/22
36/17
31
Jan 29-31
12
7
6
JAN
114
139
130/128
Feb 1-7
29/28
76/16
30
Feb 8-14
24
26
18
Feb 15-21
40
112/37
12
Feb 22-28
25
36
70
FEB
118
250/115
130
Mar 1-7
13
22
45
Mar 8-14
19/18
75/10
37
Mar 15-21
12/11
66/37
21/11
Mar 22-28
13/12
8/5
1
Mar 29-31
6
8
7
MAR
61
147
101
Apr 1-7
20
22
13
Apr 8-14
41
28
42
Apr 15-21
17/16
9/8
26
Apr 22-28
19/18
45/10
15
Apr 29-30
2
1
4
APR
99
105
100
May 1-7
20/19
15
18
May 8-14
24
31
41
May 15-21
37/36
62/25
39
May 22-28
43
39
54
May 29-31
13
16
48
MAY
137/136
163/125
200
Jun 1-7
26
19
44
Jun 8-14
25/24
29
15
Jun 15-21
21/16
6
13/10
Jun 22-28
18
17
41
Jun 29-30
9
3
9
JUN
99/93
74
122/119
Jul 1-7
20
11
39
Jul 8-14
14
31
10
Jul 15-21
17
14
37
Jul 22-28
23
14
20
Jul 29-31
8
13
13
JUL
82
83
119
Aug 1-7
27
14
31
Aug 8-14
18
13
13
Aug 15-21
20
33
15
Aug 22-28
27
24
72
Aug 29-31
11
19
10
AUG
104/103
103
141
Sep 1-7
39
39
38
Sep 8-14
30
35
43
Sep 15-21
23
27
26
Sep 22-28
24/23
15
20
Sep 29-30
7
6
4
SEP
123/119
122
131

Violence By Province Sep, 2019
Province
Violence
Anbar
3 Incidents
19 Killed
2 Hashd
17 Civilians

1 Shooting
2 IEDs
Babil
3 Incidents
1 Killed
1 Hashd
5 Wounded
5 Hashd

1 Shooting
2 IEDs
Baghdad
25 Incidents
10 Killed
1 Hashd
2 ISF
7 Civilians
35 Wounded
2 ISF
33 Civilians

10 Shootings
11 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Grenade
1 Rocket
1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Diyala
37 Incidents
21 Killed
5 Hashd
8 Civilians
8 ISF
30 Wounded
2 Hashd
10 Civilians
18 ISF

18 Shootings
18 IEDs
3 Mortars
1 Rockets
Karbala
1 Incident
12 Killed
12 Civilians
5 Wounded
5 Civilians

1 Car Bomb
Kirkuk
22 Incidents
11 Killed
4 Civilians
7 ISF
19 Wounded
1 Hashd
5 ISF
13 Civilians

6 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Sound bombs
2 Mortars
Ninewa
22 Incidents
35 Killed
1 Hashd
2 ISF
32 Civilians
27 Wounded
1 US Soldier
2 ISF
9 Civilians
15 Hashd

3 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Mortars
5 Car/Truck Bombs Dismantled
Salahaddin
10 Incidents
13 Killed
1 Civilian
2 Hashd
10 ISF
10 Wounded
2 Hashd
8 Civilians

6 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb



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