U.S. Report On Op Inherent Resolve Sheds No New Light On The Islamic State

(Wilson Center)

The new report on Operation Inherent Resolve by the American Lead Inspector General sheds no new light on the status of the Islamic State. It has said almost the same thing about the insurgency for over a year now.

 

The report starts off by saying that the Islamic State is “entrenched” in Iraq and Syria. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said that it can move freely around remote areas and is exploiting security gaps and sectarian tensions. Since the war against IS ended in Iraq five years ago the group has retreated to the rural, desert and mountain regions of the country. There are few people there and even less of a government presence. This has made the group almost irrelevant in Iraq because it barely touches the general population anymore.

 

IS itself has claimed fewer and fewer attacks. In the last quarter of 2021 it said it carried out 128 attacks versus 175 in the last quarter of 2020. The drop was due to far fewer incidents in Syria. U.S. intelligence said the group no longer has the capabilities it once had. In Iraq, most attacks are aimed at checkpoints and ambushing patrols. These mostly take place in gaps between the security forces. The insurgents have also started focusing upon the Peshmerga. 

 

The DIA implies that the Islamic State is less active because it is committed to rebuilding. It is trying to free its members from prisons and smuggles its personnel and families out of displaced camps. It is trying to recruit new members as well. The U.S. Treasury Department believes it has tens of millions of US dollars spread across the Middle East and maintains illegal businesses such as oil smuggling, kidnapping for ransom, extortion and looting.

 

The million dollar question is whether the Islamic State is on its way out or whether it can make a comeback. It is impossible to tell at the moment. The U.S. believes it still has plenty of money to fund operations. It’s membership is a hot topic of debate with some saying it has several thousand men under arms. It is using them less and less however even by its own metrics. That would point to it not being able to suffer many losses and that the many thousand figure might be overblown. Its withdrawal to the isolated parts of Iraq makes it barely a threat anymore. It is almost completely defensive in orientation with its offensive attacks in the single digits each month. Musings On Iraq’s own numbers show that the insurgency is at its lowest level since 2003. You can never count the group out but it is not really having any effect upon Iraq right now.

 

SOURCES

 

Lead Inspector General, “Operation Inherent Resolve, Lead Inspector General Report To The United States Congress, October 1, 2021-December 31, 2021,” February 2022