Over the last several months there have been repeated announcements that Kurdish oil exports are about to restart. Nothing happens however because there has been no resolution to the debts owed to oil companies in Kurdistan. In September that issue may finally have been resolved but official statements need to be taken with a large grain of salt because so many false claims have been made in the past.
In September it was reported that the cabinet gave preliminary approval to yet another plan to restart the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) oil exports. The Kurds would export 230,000 barrels a day of oil through the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) and keep 50,000 barrels for domestic use. An independent trader would handle sales through Turkey. The oil companies in the KRG would be paid $16 per barrel they sell.
Al Mada added more details, some of which contradicted the initial story. SOMO announced all the contracts and obligations of oil companies in the KRG were terminated. The division of oil was different with the KRG keeping 50% of its oil production and the other half would be exported through SOMO. The major addition was that the energy corporations agreed to the deal which had been missing from all the previous ones.
There are major problems with this deal however. The biggest one is the fact that the KRG owes $900 million to the energy companies. Does ending all their obligations mean they have given up on being paid this amount? That would be a gigantic concession so large that it’s hard to believe they would do it. That may mean there is no actual agreement with the oil firms.
Another reason for skepticism is the constant announcement of deals that led to nothing. In August the Oil Ministry and KRG Natural Resource Ministry said a deal was made and that exports would restart immediately. In July the cabinet approved a plan for the Kurds to restart oil exports but did not include compensation for the companies in Kurdistan. In March Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghazi said Kurdish oil sales were imminent. In February the budget was amended to pay the corporations $16 per barrel they export from the KRG and the Oil Ministry said that exports would restart on February 28. There were similar remarks in late 2024.
Kurdistan’s oil exports ended in March 2023 when Turkey shut down its pipeline after it lost an arbitration case to Baghdad. Iraq sued Turkey for allowing the Kurds to sell its oil through the Turkish pipeline. An international court ruled in Iraq’s favor and told Turkey it had to pay $1.5 billion in damages to Baghdad. Ankara has not sent any money and has largely acted out of spite.
There have also been questions about whether Turkey would allow its pipeline to be used again. In February for instance Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Reuters that it hadn’t been decided whether it would allow Iraq to use its pipeline. If Baghdad, Irbil and the oil companies come to an agreement they would then have to open a new set of negotiations with Ankara to finalize things.
Only time will tell if the new deal is real or not. Whether energy companies agree continues to be the biggest issue. They reportedly have finally been included but more reporting is necessary to see if that’s real or not. Until then this has to be seen as another official announcement with no substance as all the previous ones have been false.
SOURCES
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