No SOFA Referendum?

The Wall Street Journal reported on October 5, 2009 that there might not be a referendum on the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed between Iraq and the United States. The SOFA is actually two documents that set the future relations between the two countries. When it was originally debated in Iraq’s parliament, the Iraqi Accordance Front successfully pushed through a referendum in a separate, non-binding, Political Reform Document. Originally the balloting was scheduled for July 2009, but neither the cabinet nor the legislature came up with a bill for the election. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki then said he wanted the referendum to occur the same time as the January 2010 parliamentary vote. Now, Iraqi politicians talking to the Wall Street Journal have said that there is no drive to hold the referendum in January either. Parliamentarian Saleh al-Mutlaq worried that there may be a security vacuum if the U.S. is forced to leave early if the SOFA is voted down by the Iraqi public. Currently U.S. combat troops are slated to leave Iraq by December 31, 2011. If the SOFA referendum failed, they would have to leave in January 2011. Members of the United Iraqi Alliance and the Iraqi Islamic Party also said a referendum was unnecessary. Lawmakers are currently busy trying to push through a new parliamentary election law as well. Together that probably means there will be no SOFA referendum, unless Maliki really pushes it since one of his campaign issues is the exit of U.S. forces from Iraq.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Sunni Arab support key to US-Iraq security deal,” Associated Press, 11/25/08

Chon, Gina, “Iraq Vote on Pullout Put on Back Burner,” Wall Street Journal, 10/5/09

Domergue, Jeremy and Cochrane, Marisa, “Balancing Maliki,” Institute for Understanding War, June 2009

Mass Casualty Bombings And Views Of Iraq

The vast majority of Western reporting on Iraq is dominated by stories about violence. Mass casualty bombings grab the headlines because of the number of dead and wounded. Reading such pieces, however, gives people a distorted picture of Iraq. It gives the impression that the country is constantly engulfed in chaos. The problem is that there is no direct correlation between the number of bombings and security incidents, and overall deaths in Iraq. From October to December 2008 for example, there were an average of 23.6 mass casualty bombings (10 or more dead and wounded), leading to 157.3 deaths, and 515.3 wounded. For that same quarter there were an average of 507.6 deaths overall in the country according to Iraq Body Count. In comparison, from July to September 2009 there was a higher average number of bombings, 30.6, resulting in more deaths, 203.0, and wounded, 1056.6, but for those three months, there was a lower overall monthly death average of 409.3. In another instance, in June 2009 there were 14 mass casualty bombings, causing 174 deaths. The next month, there were 35 such incidents, causing 180 fatalities. June however, had 488 deaths, compared to 395 in July. All it takes is one massive bombing and it can throw all of the statistics off.

Overall, violence is down 80-90% from the height of the sectarian war. From September 2006 to June 2007 there were regularly over 1400 security incidents a week, and over 2,000 deaths a month. Since the beginning of 2009 there have only been around 200-300 incidents a week, and 300-400 monthly deaths. Reading the press however, and one could hardly tell the difference because they hardly ever put the attacks into context, or note the trends in violence. So many people also have their views of Iraq set in the past where it is either a lost cause or a total victory that it colors their views of anything they hear about the country. Things have changed in Iraq, but they still have a long way to go before it becomes a stable nation.

Mass Casualty Bombings In Iraq October 2008-September 2009

Month	# Of Bombings	Deaths	Wounded	Overall Deaths In Iraq (Iraq Body Count)
2008
October	17	101	273	528
November	33	183	548	473
December	21	188	725	522
Averages
4th Quarter	23.6	157.3	515.3	507.6
2009
January	11	92	280	276
February	12	91	219	343
March	16	175	333	416
April	21	198 + 32 Iranians	497 + 105 Iranians + 10 Americans	484
May	9	111	262	332
June	14	174	517	488
July	35	180	655	395
August	44	359	2,252	537
September	13	70	263	296
Averages
1st Quarter	13.0	119.3	277.3	345
2nd Quarter	14.6	161.0	425.3	434.6
3rd Quarter	30.6	203.0	1,056.6	409.3
2009 Avg.	19.4	161.1	586.4	396.3

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “32 Shiite pilgrims killed by woman bomber,” 2/13/09
- “At Least 10 Dead In Double Attack in Iraq’s Fallujah,” 12/4/08
- “At least nine killed in Iraq attacks,” 10/28/08
- “Bomb kills six in Iraq,” 3/29/09
- “Four students killed in Iraqi violence ahead of polls,” 1/21/09
- “Three bomb disposal police dead in Iraq,” 1/30/09

Al Arabiya, “Bombs target Iraqi forces across Baghdad,” 1/12/09

Associated Press, “Death Toll Rises In Iraq Mosque Bombing,” 11/29/08

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 killed, 8 wounded in 2nd Diala explosion,” 12/16/08
- “2 killed, 25 wounded in 2nd suicide bombing in Mosul,” 11/27/08
- “2nd blast leaves 15 casualties,” 2/8/09
- “12 killed, 60 wounded in bombing in Baghdad,” 11/12/08
- “12 killed, injured in Mosul attack,” 2/2/09
- “13 killed, wounded in Babel explosion,” 12/27/08
- “13 people killed, 12 wounded in Iraq in 24 hours,” 3/23/09
- “30 killed, injured in car bomb explosion in Talafar,” 12/2/08
- “Baghdad blast kills 2, wounds 10,” 10/19/08
- “Bicycle bomb kills 3, wounds 9 in Diala,” 12/4/08
- “Bicycle bomb kills 5, injures 24 in Khalis,” 3/2/09
- “Car bomb leaves 13 casualties in Mosul,” 3/11/09
- “Civilian killed, 16 wounded in Mosul bombing,” 12/28/08
- “ED blast kills 3, wounds 7 in Baghdad,” 11/16/08
- “IED leaves 11 casualties in Baghdad,” 10/10/08
- “URGENT/5 killed, 20 wounded in car bombing in Baghdad,” 11/15/08
- “URGENT/Suicide car bomb explosion leaves 12 casualties in Ninewa,” 3/4/09

BBC, “Bomber strikes Iraqi courthouse,” 10/8/08
- “Deadly bomb attack at Iraq market,” 10/10/08
- “Falluja car bomb blast ‘kills 13,’” 1/24/09
- “Suicide bomb kills many in Iraq,” 1/2/09

Cordesman, Anthony, “Recent Trend in the Iraq War: Maps and Graphs,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10/1/09

DPA, “Baghdad police station attack kills at least 52 – 3rd update,” 3/8/09
- “Death toll in Baghdad twin blasts rises to 25 (2nd Lead),” 12/17/08
- “Female suicide bomber kills 40 pilgrims in Baghdad – Summary,” 1/4/09
- “Female suicide bomber kills seven in Baquba (Extra),” 11/10/08

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Friday 28 November 2008,” 11/28/08

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 16 December 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/16/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 18 November 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/18/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday, Feb. 11,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/11/09

Iraq Body Count

Iraq Today, December 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- March 2009
- November 2008
- October 2008

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 11 December 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/11/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 10 March 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/10/09

Al Jazeera, “Twin blasts target Baghdad police,” 12/17/08

Kadim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence – Thursday 09 October 2008,” 10/9/08

Pakistan News, “Twin Blasts in Northern Iraq 2 Killed,” 12/31/08

Press TV, “Car bomb kills 15, wound 13 in Iraq,” 2/24/09

Reuters, “16 dead, 45 wounded in twin Baghdad bombs-police,” 2/11/09
- “Bicycle bomb kills 3 in north Iraq’s Baquba,” 3/30/09
- “Car bomb kills 10, wounds 31 in northern Iraq,” 11/15/08
- “Double suicide bombing kills 8 in western Iraq,” 11/8/08
- “Eleven killed in Baghdad blasts, police say,” 11/4/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 6,” 12/6/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 15,” 12/15/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 17,” 2/17/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 26,” 1/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 12,” 11/12/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 10,” 10/10/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 23,” 10/23/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 28,” 10/28/08
- “Four killed in Baghdad airport road blast – police,” 11/5/08
- “Iraq bomb kills two Shi’ite pilgrims – police,” 2/8/09
- “Iraq’s Maliki beats religious parties in vote,” 2/5/09
- “Ninewa Iraqi policemen killed in suicide attack,” 12/15/08
- “Roadside bombs in Baghdad kill eight,” 2/16/09
- “Suicide bomb kills at least 46 in Iraq restaurant,” 12/11/08
- “Suicide car bomb kills 15 in Iraq,” 11/16/08
- “Twin Baghdad blasts kill 15, wound 45 – police,” 12/1/08

Sarhan, Saad and Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Attack on Crowded Livestock Market South of Baghdad Kills 12,” Washington Post, 3/5/09

Sheridan, Mary Beth and Sabah, Zaid, “Baghdad Bombing Misses Iraqi Official but Kills 2 Others,” Washington Post, 11/5/08

Xinhua, “3 Iraqis killed, 19 others injured in Baghdad bomb attacks,” 11/21/08
- “3 workers killed, 15 injured in Iraq bombing,” 3/30/09
- “At least 12 killed in bomb explosion in Karbala,” 2/12/09
- “Car bomb kills at least three, wounds 29 N of Baghdad,” 10/1/09
- “Death toll rises to 9 killed in west Baghdad explosion,” 3/23/09
- “Death toll rises to 16 in Baghdad car bombing,” 2/11/09
- “One killed, 15 wounded in car bombing in N Iraq,” 11/13/08
- “Policeman killed in Bomb Attacks in Diyala,” 3/3/09
- “Suicide car bomb kills 16 in N Iraq,” 12/1/08
- “Suicide car bomb wounds 10 in northern Iraq,” 1/6/09
- “Two people killed, 20 injured in attacks in Iraq,” 11/17/08
- “Two people killed, 22 injured in Baghdad bomb attacks,” 1/5/09
- “Two policemen killed in booby-trapped house explosion in Diyala,” 3/22/09
- “Up to 15 killed, 147 injured in Fallujah twin suicide attacks,” 12/4/08

Maliki’s New State Of Law List May Not Be Enough

On October 1, 2009 Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki revealed his new State of Law List, which will run in the January 2010 parliamentary elections. Despite many reports of Maliki attempting to add new members to his coalition, especially Sunnis, the Prime Minister apparently struck out in his attempts. Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, the head of the Awakening Conference in Anbar, talked about running with Maliki for the last six months, but instead formed a new alliance with Interior Minister Jawad Bolani’s Constitution Party, and several tribal groups in the new Iraqi Unity List. Former speaker of parliament Mahmud al-Mashhadani, an independent Sunni who heads the Nationalist Independent Trend, at first said that he had joined the State of Law, and then withdrew. Sunni Parliamentarian Saleh al-Mutlaq of the Iraqi National Dialogue Front was another likely candidate, which Maliki had courted after the January 2009 parliamentary elections, said back in March that he was interested in working with the State of Law, but those talks fell apart by September. Mutlaq instead joined with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List, who also at one time expressed an interest in Maliki’s coalition. Member of parliament Mithal al-Alusi, Ninewa’s ruling al-Hadbaa party, and the new Kurdish opposition party, the Change List, were also not a part of the State of Law either. Maliki even went after Sunni tribal leaders in places like Salahaddin, Anbar, Tamim, and Ninewa, but nothing came of that. Maliki also made overtures to former Shiite rivals like the Sadrists when provincial governments were being put together earlier in the year, but they ended up joining the new Iraqi National Alliance instead.

The reason for these failures are largely unknown since the negotiations all occurred behind closed doors. It was reported that Maliki and al-Mutlaq agreed that their policies and constituencies would be contradictory. Maliki for example, has recently gone after Baathists for the August 2009 Baghdad bombings, while former regime members are exactly who Mutlaq appeals to. Sadr on the other hand, was probably pressured by Iran to join the National Alliance, since one of their main priorities is to maintain Shiite rule in Iraq.

Instead, what Prime Minister Maliki is going to run with is leftovers. The leadership of the State of Law is still with his Dawa Party. The Dawa-Iraq Organization is also a core member. After that it’s a number of ministers and government officials, such as Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, and independent Shiite politicians that follow him, Minister of Displacement and Migration, Abdul Samad Sultan, an independent Kurd, and government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh. Maliki was able to get some members of Allawi’s Iraqi National List to defect, such as the deputy speaker of parliament, and a group from al-Hadbaa in the Sinjar district in Ninewa. The only prominent Sunni that agreed to join was Sheikh Ali Hatem Sulaiman from Anbar who was formerly with the Abu Risha’s Awakening. The Iraqi Communist Party was originally announced as a member as well, but then denied it.

Maliki is facing an uphill battle to return to the prime ministership. He’s running on security, which has been questioned after the August Baghdad bombings, better services, which are not coming, and getting the Americans to leave. The individual members of the Iraqi National Alliance did far worse than Maliki’s State of Law in the provincial elections, but all together they did slightly better. The Kurds are still a relatively unified bloc of voters as well, and may be kingmakers in Iraq after the elections in whatever ruling coalition is put together. They have had repeated run-ins with Maliki. What he has going for him is that he is far better known and popular than any other Iraqi politician. His nationalist, and strong central government platform, also appeals to many. His inability to bring in any new major figures or parties however may show the limit of his power. As it stands, he probably has a 50-50 chance to hold onto his position.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Maliki’s coalition blurs Iraq’s sectarian lines,” Associated Press, 10/2/09

Alsumaria, “New coalitions arise ahead of Iraq elections,” 9/12/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Sunni leader envisions alliance with Maliki in next polls,” 7/26/09
- “Urgent/Maliki’s Dawlat al-Qaneen list announced,” 10/1/09

BBC, “Maliki launches pan-Iraqi bloc,” 10/1/09

Chon, Gina, “Maliki Coalition Tries to Bridge Iraq’s Deep Sectarian Divisions,” Wall Street Journal, 10/2/09

Domergue, Jeremy and Cochrane, Marisa, “Balancing Maliki,” Institute for Understanding War, June 2009

Al Dulaimy, Mohammad, “Maliki unveils new national, nonsectarian Iraqi party,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/1/09

Fox News, “Iraqi Clan Leader May Hold Key to Lasting Political Stability After U.S. Exit,” 4/4/09

Haddad, Subhy and Ahmed, Shaalan, “Iraqi PM approaches Sunnis for nationwide elections,” Xinhua, 10/1/09

Kazimi, Nibras, “Iraq: Alliances Galore,” Hudson Institute, 7/17/09
- “Coalitions,” Talisman Gate, 9/10/09

Lando, Ben, “In Iraq, Maliki Banks on a New ‘Unity’ Coalition,” Time, 10/1/09

Myers, Steven Lee, “Iraqi Leader Creates Broad Coalition,” New York Times, 10/1/09
- “Unity Is Rallying Cry Ahead of Iraq Elections,” New York Times, 10/1/09

Niqash, “alliance building in anbar: sunnis join cross-sectarian trend,” 9/7/09

Parker, Ned, “Maliki remakes himself ahead of elections,” Los Angeles Times, 7/21/09

Parker, Ned and Salman, Raheem, “Maliki presents his own electoral bloc,” Los Angeles Times, 10/2/09

Roads To Iraq, “Election update – various other news,” 9/29/09
- “Iraq pre-election political map – The Sunni scene,” 9/19/09
- “Last news from the election campaign,” 10/4/09

Serwer, Daniel and Parker, Sam, “Maliki’s Iraq between Two Elections,” United States Institute of Peace, May 2009

Shadid, Anthony, “In Iraq, Political Ambiguity,” Washington Post, 4/4/09
- “Maliki Creates Coalition To Compete in Iraqi Vote,” Washington Post, 10/2/09
- “New Alliance In Iraq Cross Sectarian Lines,” Washington Post, 3/20/09

Visser, Reidar, “Maliki Re-Launches the State of Law List: Beautiful but Is It Powerful Enough?” Historiae.org, 10/1/09

Sadr Tries To Reconcile With Breakaway League Of The Righteous

Awan Daily reported that Moqtada al-Sadr is attempting to reconcile with the League of the Righteous before the January 2010 elections. A delegation from the League is set to travel to Qom, Iran to meet personally with Sadr. According to Awan, they are likely to reject rejoining the Sadr movement before the vote, and are planning to run on their own, led by former Transport Minister Salam al-Maliki. Currently al-Maliki is the spokesman for the League.

Sadr may not be the only suitor for the League. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law may also court them. In March 2009 it was revealed that Baghdad was acting as a middleman in negotiations between England and the League to release five British hostages that the group kidnapped in 2007. The deal was to release members of the League in return for the Britons. By May the League said they wanted to run in the parliamentary elections. The Maliki government stated that it was important for Iraq’s future for the group to renounce violence. In August the Prime Minister met with representatives of the League who said that they had given up on violence and wanted to be integrated into the political process. In turn, Baghdad has been requesting the U.S. free dozens of League members in their custody. Sadr condemned this move, saying that anyone who was involved in resistance to the government should be excluded from politics. He’s obviously changed his mind as the elections are drawing nearer. For Maliki, if he were to run with the League it would cut into Sadr’s base, which is a key part of the new Iraqi National Alliance.

Qais Khazali is the leader of the League of the Righteous, and is still in U.S. custody. Khazali was a follower of Sadr’s father Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, and helped keep the movement alive after his death at the hands of Saddam’s government in 1999. Khazali later became a follower of Moqtada after the U.S. invasion, but quickly broke away. In 2004 after the second Sadrist uprising against the Coalition, Khazali refused to follow the cease-fire and formed his own militia in Sadr City. By early 2005 Sadr was able to bring him back into the fold, and named Khazali one of the heads of his organization. The next year Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Qods Force picked Khazali to head its network of Iranian supported and trained militias, which became known as Special Groups. That was when the League was formed. They carried out two spectacular attacks. The first was the January 2007 raid on the Karbala Joint Coordination Center in which five U.S. soldiers were killed. This led to the arrest of Qais and Laith Khazali in Basra in March. Second, the League kidnapped the five Britons from the Finance Ministry in Baghdad in May 2007. In 2008, the League was scattered after Maliki’s crackdown on militias. Moqtada has tried to hold talks with them off and on before, but to no avail, and may not be any more successful this time.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Report: Deal close to free Britons seized in Iraq,” Associated Press, 3/29/09

Agence France Presse, “2nd UPDATE: Iraqi PM Met Group Behind Kidnap Of Britons,” 8/3/09
- “Over 100 from Iraqi group who killed Britons freed,” 9/27/09
- “US sees confrontation with Sadr splinter factions,” 10/12/04

Associated Press, “Baghdad’s blast walls to come down,” 8/6/09
- “More Shiite militants freed by US in Iraq,” 9/28/09

Awan Daily, “Maliki announced next week, the electoral coalition,” 9/25/09

Chulov, Martin, “Split among captors hits hope of freedom for British hostages in Iraq,” Guardian, 5/28/09

Cochrane, Marisa, “Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Khazali Special Groups network,” Institute for the Study of War,” 1/13/09
- “The Fragmentation of the Sadrist Movement,” Institute for the Study of War, January 2009

Dagher, Sam, “Sadr reins in Shiite militiamen, sends mixed signals,” Christian Science Monitor, 3/31/08

Felter, Joseph and Fishman, Brian, “Iranian Strategy in Iraq, Politics and ‘Other Means,’” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, 10/13/08

Howard, Michael, “Iraqi minister incensed by airport display bans alcohol,” Guardian, 8/5/05

Nordland, Rod and Dagher, Sam, “U.S. Will Release More Members of an Iraqi Militia,” New York Times, 8/17/09

Roads To Iraq, “Iraqi pre-election political map – The Shiites,” 9/21/09

Rubin, Alissa and Gordon, Michael, “U.S. Frees Suspect in Killing of 5 G.I.’s,” New York Times, 6/9/09

Xinhua, “Iraq frees 147 prisoners linked to abduction of 5 Britons: newspaper,” 9/28/09

Iraq’s 2009 Drought

Iraq is facing a drought again. Officially, it has been going on for the last two years. Unofficially the United Nations says four. The lack of rain, no government water policy, and population growth are the main causes, but Baghdad has been blaming its neighbors as well. Iran, Syria, and Turkey have all built dams that affect Iraq’s two main rivers, the Euphrates and Tigris, along with smaller tributaries. Iraq needs 500 cubic meters per second from both major rivers according to the Water Ministry, but as of August 2009 was only receiving 440 cubic meters per second from the Euphrates and 100-160 cubic meters from the Tigris. All four countries have been holding meetings over water issues, with few results.

Together these problems are having larger and larger effects upon Iraq’s agriculture, rural areas, and power supply. Iraq’s rice production has dropped from 500,000 tons per year to 250,000 tons. Wheat has declined from 3.5 million tons to 1 million tons. As a result, Iraq has become one of the largest food importers in the world, when it was self-sufficient in the 1980s. It will need to import 4 million tons of wheat alone this year, at a cost of $1.4 billion. Overall, Iraq will have to buy 80% of its food needs this year. The drought is also leading to population shifts. 3,000 people in Basra have left their homes because of rising salt levels in the land. In Ninewa, 60 out of 150 villages in the Al-Tal district are deserted in what was once the most productive wheat and barley area of the province. 90% of the land is also desert or suffering from desertification. A report by the European Water Associated warned that Iraq could become barren like Saudi Arabia if something isn’t done. Hydroelectric power production is also down. In the city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province, two of four turbines have been shut down because water levels are so low.

With no government planning, little money to support farmers, minimal international aid, and a lack of cooperation so far from its neighbors, Iraq’s water situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. More rain is likely to be the only respite, otherwise it will face another year of drought, whose effects are spreading from the countryside to Iraq’s cities with migration, decreased power production, and food imports.



Farmland Affected
Affected farmland 36,919 square kilometers
Total farmland 96,706 square kilometers
% of affected farmland 38.7%
Babil, Irbil, Ninewa, Salahaddin, Tamim, – 46-56%
Dhi Qar, Diyala, Maysan – 31-45%
Baghdad, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah – 26-30%
Anbar, Basra, Muthanna, Wasit – 6-25%
Sulaymaniya – 4-5%
Dohuk – 0%

SOURCES

Blua, Antoine, “Iraq Tussles With Neighbors Over Water,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 9/13/09

Chulov, Martin, “Water shortage threatens two million people in southern Iraq,” Guardian, 8/26/09

DiPaola, Anthony and Alexander, Caroline, “Iraq Drought Cuts Harvest, Boosts Imports as Oil Cash Slips,” Bloomberg, 8/5/09

Hope, Bradley, “Iraq digs in to rebuild agricultural sector,” The National, 8/30/09

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “The Humanitarian Situation In Iraq, Inter-Agency Fact Sheet,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, August 2009

IRIN, “IRAQ: Drought hits rice, wheat staples,” 8/31/09b

Kamal, Adel, “desertification destroys ninawa villages,” Niqash, 7/17/09

Raphaeli, Dr. Nimrod, “Water Crisis in Iraq: The Growing Danger of Desertification,” The Middle East Media Institute, 7/23/09

Sly, Liz, “Iraq in throes of environmental catastrophe, experts say,” Los Angeles Times, 7/30/09

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/09

Tharp, Mike, “Once world’s bread basket, Iraq now a farming basket case,” McClatchy Newspapers, 7/17/09

Williams, Timothy, “Idle Iraqi Date Farm Show Decline of Economy,” New York Times, 8/15/09

Iraqi Deaths Continue To Fluctuate Up And Down

As has been the pattern for 2009, the number of monthly deaths in Iraq continues to go up and down with each month. August saw a large increase compared to July, and then September took a dip. For example, Iraq Body Count, the organization that usually has the highest casualty numbers, recorded 395 deaths in July, 537 in August, and their preliminary figure for September is 296. The three other groups that keep track of deaths in Iraq, icasualties.org, Iraq's ministries, and the Associated Press, while all having different numbers, showed the same fluctuations. For all four, September had the second lowest death total for the year. Last month also had the fewest mass casualty bombings (10 or more dead and wounded) since May 2009. In September there were 13 such attacks, resulting in 70 deaths and 263 wounded. May had 9 bombings, 111 deaths, and 262 wounded.

What the statistics show is that Iraq's militants have lost their luster, and are incapable of sowing the death and destruction they once did even a year ago. In 2009 they have only been able to mount large-scale attacks for one month, and then need to re-group for an entire month before they can do it again. Even then, the months with high numbers of deaths do not reach the levels of 2008. In fact, 2009 has so far, seen fewer casualties then 2003 when the U.S. invaded. For instance, according to Iraq Body Count, there were 3,900 deaths from May to December 2003, for an average of 487.5 per month. In comparison, from January to August 2009 they counted 3,271 deaths, and an average of 408.8 per month. That in no way means that violence in Iraq is at an acceptable level, but it does mean that things have dramatically changed in the country since the height of the sectarian war from 2006-2007.

Iraqi Deaths

	Iraq Body Count	icasualties. Org	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press
July 08	584	419	465	510
Aug. 08	592	311	431	475
Sep. 08	535	366	440	503
Oct. 08	528	288	318	446
Nov. 08	473	317	340	360
Dec. 08	522	320	316	393
Jan. 09	276	187	191	242
Feb. 09	343	202	258	288
March 09	416	278	252	335
April 09	484	347	355	371
May 09	332	188	165	225
June 09	488	367	438	447
July 09	395	240	275	309
Aug. 09	537	439	456	425
Sep. 09	296	158	203	238
Last 6 months of 2008 Average	539.0	336.8	385.0	447.8
First 6 months of 2009 Average	389.8	261.0	276.5	317.5

Number of Bombings and Casualty Statistics – April to July 2009

April 2009
Bombings: 21
Deaths: 198 + 32 Iranians
Wounded: 497 + 105 Iranians + 10 Americans

May 2009
Bombings: 9
Deaths: 111
Wounded: 262

June 2009
Bombings: 14
Deaths: 174
Wounded: 517

July 2009
Bombings: 35
Deaths: 180
Wounded: 655

August 2009
Bombings: 44
Deaths: 359
Wounded: 2,252

September 2009
Bombings: 13
Deaths: 70
Wounded: 263

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq attacks death toll rises to eight,” 9/4/09
- “Iraq death toll falls by half in September: officials,” 10/1/09

Ahmed, Hamid, “Car bomb kills 8 at checkpoint in western Iraq,” Associated Press, 9/7/09

Associated Press, “Car bomb kills 7 in market south of Iraqi capital,” 9/18/09
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 11/3/08
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 1/2/09
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 10/1/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “4 killed, 6 wounded in Kirkuk explosion,” 9/9/09
- “Suicide blast in Diala leaves 27 casualties,” 9/7/09

Gamel, Kim, “U.S. monthly toll new low for Iraq,” Associated Press, 8/1/08

icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Karadesh, Jomana, “Scores killed in multiple Iraq bombings,” CNN, 9/10/09

Press TV, “Bomb attacks claims 13, injures 150 in Iraq,” 9/4/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 27,” 9/27/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 28,” 9/28/09
- “Iraq market bombs kill four, wound 29,” 9/10/09

Rising, David, “Back-to-back bombs at Shiite shrine,” Associated Press, 9/12/09
- “Bombs at Shiite shrine kill 4 Iraqis,” Associated Press, 9/13/09

Xinhua, “Car bomb kills two in Iraq,” 9/3/09
- “Roadside bomb kills 3 Iraqi soldiers in Baghdad,” 9/28/09

Referendum On Kurdish Constitution Moves Forward

As reported before, on July 10, 2009 the Kurdistan regional parliament postponed a referendum on a new draft constitution. Now, on September 23 the Iraqi Election Commission said that it was ready to hold the vote. It still needs a referendum law and a budget to carry out the process. Originally, the election on the constitution was to happen at the same time as the Kurdish parliamentary and presidential balloting on July 25. According to reports, Vice President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Robert Gates who traveled to Iraq in July 2009 led to the delay.

The document has been controversial for a number of reasons. For one, it lays claim to Kirkuk and other disputed areas. Second, it gives the regional president greatly expanded powers including executive authority, control over the peshmerga, the ability to pass and veto laws, dissolve parliament, and remove ministers. (5) It also says that the Kurdistan Regional Government has the authority to veto any international treaties signed by Baghdad that impact the region. The new Kurdish opposition group the Change List has said they oppose the constitution as well, and want it revised. However Regional President Massoud Barzani said that it would require a two-thirds vote in the Kurdish parliament to amend it, which the Change List does not possess. If the regional constitution is passed as is, it could increase tensions with the central government in Baghdad, as well as cause dissension within Kurdistan.

SOURCES

Aziz, Ardalan, “controversy over kurdish constitution,” Niqash, 7/6/09

Dagher, Sam, “New Kurdish Leader Asserts Agenda,” New York Times, 7/29/09

Mahmoud, Amer, “controversy over Kurdish constitution,” Niqash, 7/6/09

PUK Media, “IHEC Source: Ready to hold referendum on Kurdistan Region Constitution,” 9/23/09

Sands, Phil and Latif, Nazir, “Talk of war as Kurdish tension increase,” The National, 8/1/09