2009 Pattern of Violence In Iraq Continues Into 2010

Despite predictions that violence would increase before the March 2010 elections, casualties in January followed the same pattern that was set in 2009. Beginning in April 2009 to the present, the number of fatalities has gone up and down each month. Iraq Body Count for example, recorded 205 deaths in November 2009, 426 in December, and 236 in January 2010. All the other groups that follow Iraqi violence have reported the same pattern.

Large bombings in Iraq resulting in ten or more casualties were also down for the month with only ten in January resulting in 100 dead and 407 wounded. That compares to December when there were 25, causing 246 deaths, and 851 wounded. Since August 2009, those bombings have followed the same pattern as fatalities overall, going up and down each month.

As usual, Baghdad province had the most casualties last month with 50 attacks, 94 deaths, and 318 wounded. Ninewa was second with 69 attacks, 42 dead, and 101 wounded, followed by Anbar, Diyala, and Tamim as the five most violent governorates for January. Baghdad has been the center of politics and fighting since the U.S. invasion. In Anbar, Al Qaeda is trying to get revenge for the tribes turning on them, and the sheikhs have on going political battles that sometime result in violence. The other three provinces have mixed Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, and minority populations, and insurgents and Islamists have been trying to exploit these divisions for their own gain.

Violence and deaths are down overall to their lowest levels since the overthrow of Saddam in 2003. The main cause was large Sunni participation in the January 2009 provincial elections. That was the culmination of tribes and insurgents turning against Al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Sunnis wanting to join the political process after boycotting the 2005 vote. There has been little change in the country since the local balloting, which is probably why violence has hit a plateau, and not gone down any more. The 2010 elections were originally seen as another chance for Sunnis to join the government, but the recent turn of events in the campaign with the banning of candidates and accusations of Baathist plots, may derail that. The one good thing about the casualty pattern is that it means the March voting will be relatively peaceful, but February will probably have a high number of attacks.

Iraqi Deaths – January 2010
Iraq Body Count: 245
Press Reports: 213
Associated Press: 177
Icasualties: 135 
Iraqi Ministries: N/A

Attacks/Incidents – January 2010

The numbers before each province correlate to the numbers on the map

1. Baghdad
Attacks: 50
Dead: 94 + 1 Iranian
Wounded: 318 + 5 Iranians

14. Ninewa
Attacks: 69
Dead: 42
Wounded: 101 + 1 American

13. Anbar
Attacks: 13
Dead: 17
Wounded: 28

3. Diyala
Attacks: 13
Dead: 13
Wounded: 53

17. Tamim
Attacks: 26
Dead: 13
Wounded: 35

2. Salahaddin
Attacks: 8
Dead: 4
Wounded: 36

Southern Iraq: Attacks: 11
10. Babil: 3
5. Maysan: 2
12. Najaf: 2
9. Qadisiyah: 2
6. Basra: 1
4. Wasit: 1
Dead: 30
Wounded: 124

Likely Special Group Attacks In Southern Iraq
1/1/10 U.S. camp rocketed in Qadisiyah
1/9/10 IED hits U.S. patrol in Qadisiyah
1/11/10 U.S. base in Hilla mortared

Mass Casualty Bombings – January 2010
Bombings: 10
Dead: 100
Wounded: 407

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq: Death toll in Baghdad blasts rises to 41,” 1/26/10
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 2/1/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 bodies found in Talafar,” 1/4/10
- “2 bombs go off in Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “2 civilians killed separately in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/13/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/21/10
- “2 civilians wounded in second southern Baghdad attack,” 1/30/10
- “2 cops killed in Baghdad,” 1/22/10
- “2 killed, 19 wounded in Samarra bombing,” 1/30/10
- “2 persons wounded in blast near Kirkuk,” 1/9/10
- “2 gunmen killed in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “2 IEDs, 1 bomb wound 3 civilians – BOC,” 1/31/10
- “2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in Saadiya blast,” 1/16/10
- “2 pilgrims injured in 3rd Baghdad blast,” 1/31/10
- “2 policemen gunned down in Baghdad attack,” 1/16/10
- “2 rockets hit house in Kirkuk without casualties,” 1/15/10
- “2 soldiers wounded by gunmen in western Mosul,” 1/29/10
- “3 Christians wounded in Mosul Uni. Blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 civilians wounded by sticky bomb in Baghdad,” 1/27/10
- “3 cops injured in Hit,” 1/7/10
- “3 killed, 6 wounded in Kirkuk blasts,” 1/4/10
- “3 killed, 7 injured in armed robbery in Baghdad,” 1/20/10
- “3 soldiers, kid wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 wounded in IED blast south of Kirkuk,” 1/30/10
- “4 civilians killed, wounded in Diala blast,” 1/6/10
- “4 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/9/10
- “4 civilians wounded in blast near Baaquba,” 1/18/10
- “4 cops killed, wounded in Falluja blast,” 1/24/10
- “4 people wounded by mortar shell in Kirkuk,” 1/28/10
- “5 civilians injured in thermal bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “5 killed or wounded separately in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “6 civilians wounded in IED blast in Baghdad,” 1/10/10
- “6 civilians wounded in Wassit blast,” 1/17/10
- “10 wounded in Mosul explosion,” 1/4/10
- “11 civilians killed, wounded in several blasts in Anbar,” 1/7/10
- “12 killed, 20 wounded in Najaf blasts,” 1/14/10
- “Al-Saadiya car bomb casualties up to 4, dead, 3 wounded,” 1/12/10
- “Army forces kill gunman in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Army kills suicide bomber west of Mosul,” 1/21/10
- “Baghdad blast kills civilian, wounds 3,” 1/24/10
- “Basketball coach killed in Baghdad attacks,” 1/25/10
- “Blast inside a restaurant northern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Body found, man wounded in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Bomb explodes in Kirkuk without casualties,” 1/21/10
- “Bomb kills boy in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “Bomb leaves 3 wounded in southern Baghdad,” 1/16/10
- “Bomb wounds civilian in Kirkuk,” 1/27/10
- “Bus attack foiled in Mosul,” 1/16/10
- “Child killed, 4 others wounded near Kirkuk,” 1/6/10
- “Christian shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian gunned down in eastern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed, 2 wounded by roadside bomb west of Baghdad,” 1/13/10
- “Civilian killed, 4 wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian killed, 20 wounded in Baghdad blasts,” 1/2/10
- “Civilian killed, another wounded by grenade in Basra,” 1/12/10
- “Civilian killed in Mosul Christian – source,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian shot down by gunmen fire near Kirkuk,” 1/30/10
- “Civilian, soldier wounded in checkpoint attack,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in blast in Anbar,” 1/23/10
- “Civilian wounded in blast near Kirkuk,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in Mosul attack,” 1/26/10
- “Civilian wounded in shooting inside Mosul restaurant,” 1/14/10
- “Cop gunned down in popular café in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Cop killed in Babel,” 1/21/10
- “Cop wounded in mortar attack in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Eastern Mosul blast casualties up to 36,” 1/20/10
- “Former Iraqi army officer gunned down in Mosul,” 1/26/10
- “Goldsmith kidnapped in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Green Zone mortared, says eyewitness,” 1/19/10
- “Grenade hits MNF patrol in Kirkuk,” 1/16/10
- “Gunman injures cop in Baghdad,” 1/28/10
- “Gunman killed by IED in Falluja,” 1/31/10
- “Gunman throws hand grenade at police vehicle in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Gunmen arrested after attacking patrol in Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen attack humanitarian org. kill 5 employees in Baghdad,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen blow up house of policeman in Falluja,” 1/20/10
- “Gunmen kidnap civilian west of Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Gunmen kill 3 guards in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Gunmen kill cops in Kirkuk,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill mosque’s Imam in Baghdad,” 1/28/10
- “Gunmen kill woman, daughter in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen open fire on gunmen south of Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “Gunmen shoot bank employee in western Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen shoot down Iraqi army officer in Baghdad,” 1/2/10
- “Gunmen wound party member in Kirkuk,” 1/2/10
- “Health employee kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 1/26/10
- “Heet blast wounds suburb’s deputy sheriff – source,” 1/7/10
- “House blast kills 2 kids, wound another in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “IED blast kills civilian, wounds 3 in Baghdad,” 1/2/10
- “IED explodes, another defused in Kirkuk,” 1/19/10
- “IED explodes in southern Ramadi,” 1/21/10
- “IED hits U.S. patrol vehicle in Diwaniya,” 1/9/10
- “IED injures 4 soldiers in Baghdad,” 1/29/10
- “IED wounds 2 civilians in Baghdad,” 1/26/10
- “IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “Interior Ministry adviser dies of wounds from Baghdad blast,” 1/23/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded, IED defused in Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Iraq soldier wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/2/10
- “Joint patrol kills gunman southwest of Kirkuk,” 1/18/10
- “Karada blast casualties rise further; 18 killed 80 wounded,” 1/26/10
- “Katyusha rocket hits a house in southern Mosul,” 1/12/10
- “Khanaqin blast wounds 21,” 1/7/10
- “Kirkuk blast wounds 7 policemen,” 1/28/10
- “Kirkuk’s asayesh deputy chief escapes attempt with IED,” 1/15/10
- “Landmine wounds shepherd south of Kirkuk,” 1/14/10
- “Mayor gunned down in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Missan emergency contingents HQ rocketed,” 1/12/10
- “Missan emergency police official escapes attempt on life,” 1/12/10
- “MP’s security personnel wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/11/10
- “Najaf governor survives assassination attempt,” 1/22/10
- “Officer, civilian wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/18/10
- “Officer killed, 2 bodyguards wounded by roadside bomb in Kirkuk,” 1/20/10
- “Pilgrim killed, 2 wounded in grenade attack in Baghdad,” 1/30/10
- “Policeman killed, 3 civilians wounded in Falluja blast,” 1/1/10
- “Policeman wounded in small arms attack in Talafar,” 1/1/10
- “Provincial council deputy chief escapes assassination attempt,” 1/17/10
- “Second attack on Christians in Mosul in less than 24 hours,” 1/18/10
- “Soldier wounded by gunmen fire in Kirkuk,” 1/9/10
- “Soldier wounded in IED attack near Kirkuk” 1/21/10
- “Sticky bomb kills cop in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Sticky bomb kills, injures 2 civilians in Falluja,” 1/14/10
- “Sticky device kills civilian in Mosul,” 1/24/10
- “Suicide bomber wounds 5 people northwest of Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Suicide explosion leaves 9 casualties,” 1/13/10
- “U.S. base hit by rockets,” 1/20/10
- “U.S. base in Hilla mortared,” 1/11/10
- “U.S. Camp Echo rocketed in Diwaniya,” 1/1/10
- “U.S. forces kill 4 gunmen in Mosul,” 1/8/10
- “Unknown body found in Kirkuk,” 1/11/10
- “URGENT/Civilian wounded, 4 suspects arrested in Touz Khormato,” 1/31/10
- “Woman killed inside her house in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “Young man found dead near Kirkuk,” 1/10/10

Canadian Press, “Iraq election worker killed, another kidnapped in run-up to March vote, official says,” 1/11/10

Carter, Chelsea, “US: Key al-Qaida leader killed in Iraq,” 1/28/10

Dawn.com, “Suicide blast kills seven in Iraq’s Anbar,” 1/13/10

DPA, “Toll in Iraq bombing rises,” 1/15/10
- “Two policemen killed, Christian man kidnapped in Iraq,” 1/2/10

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 07 January 2010,” 1/7/10

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 17 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/17/10
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 13 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/13/10
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 20 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/20/10

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 1,” 1/1/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 2,” 1/2/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 7,” 1/7/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 11,” 1/11/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 16,” 1/16/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 14,” 1/14/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 18,” 1/18/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 22,” 1/22/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 23,” 1/23/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 26,” 1/26/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 27,” 1/27/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 30,” 1/30/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 31,” 1/31/10

Schreck, Adam, “Iraqi President Orders Probe on Elections,” Associated Press, 1/20/10

Trend, “Four killed in attacks by Iraqi militants,” 1/21/10

Xinhua, “9 wounded in Baghdad bombings,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed, 7 wounded in Iraq’s Diyala province,” 1/10/10
- “Civilian killed in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 1/13/10

Yacoub, Sameer, “Al-Qaida group claims hotel blasts in Baghdad,” Associated Press, 1/27/10

Candidates Unbanned From Running In March 2010 Election

The banning of 511 candidates from the March 2010 election has taken another dramatic turn. On February 3, 2010 the Election Commission announced the Accountability and Justice appeals court had re-instated all of the banned candidates, and that their cases would be dealt with after the election. Vice President Joe Biden was the first one to propose this in mid-January 2010. The National Alliance that runs the Accountability and Justice Commission immediately picked up on that fact, accusing Washington of interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs. The head of the Commission, Ali al-Lami, who is running as a National Alliance candidate, went further saying that the appeals court decision violates the constitution, and if the Election Commission allows the banned candidates to participate in the voting then they will be sued.

Whatever the ultimate fate of the candidates is, the National Alliance has accomplished their goal. All of the major parties are talking about Baathists and the banning instead of issues like services, the economy or security that were the major themes of the 2009 election. That suits the National Alliance because the major parties in the coalition, such as the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, disagree about almost everything from federalism to Kirkuk. They also ran southern Iraq and Baghdad for four years with little success. That leaves them with nothing of substance to run on, so they might as well focus upon the meaningless, the threat of Baathists. That was the likely reason why they banned the candidates in the first place, to re-shape the election on their terms.

SOURCES

AK News, “Iraq considers dissolution of the Accountability and Justice Commission,” 1/20/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “IHEC says all banned candidates to run in election,” 2/3/10

Roads To Iraq, “Barred candidates allowed to stand, INA’s emergency meeting … updated,” 2/3/10

Sullivan, Marisa Cochrane, “Sunni Politicians Barred From Candidacy,” Institute for the Study of War,” 1/14/10

Visser, Reidar, “Reinstated, for the Time Being,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 2/3/10

Iraqis Largely Positive About The Future

In December 2009 the Gallup company conducted an end of the year study of several countries around the world. They contracted IIACSS to carry out a poll of 1,015 Iraqis, asking them three questions about the future. All three received positive responses.

The first one was would 2010 be better than 2009. The majority, 51%, said that they thought things would be better, compared to 28% who said it would be the same, and 18% who thought it would be worse. 3% had no response.

The second question was what they thought the economy would be like in 2010. The respondents were almost evenly divided between those that thought the economy would grow, 40%, and those who said that it would remain the same, 38%. 18% said it would run into problems, and 4% didn’t say.

The last question was what would unemployment be like in one year. Again, those polled were split with 37% saying that it would fall, while 35% said it would increase.

With attacks and deaths dramatically down from the heyday of the sectarian war in 2006-2007, the standard of living has become the most pressing concern in Iraq. Another poll from December 2009 by YouGov, asked Iraqis what was the most important issue facing the country, and unemployment, and financial insecurity, were two of the three top answers, with security being the third. The new poll by IIACSS reveals that Iraqis are hopeful that the economy will improve in 2010, and that will mean a better life. That’s a marked and positive change from just a couple years ago when Iraq seemed like it had fallen into the abyss. The question now is whether the state-run system in the country can actually provide people with good jobs and a future.

December 2009 IIACSS Poll

1. Do you think that 2010 will be better or worse than 2009
51% Better
28% Same
18% Worse
3% No response

2. Compared with the year 2009, in your opinion will 2010 be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same?
40% Economic prosperity
38% Remain the same
18% Economic difficulty
4% No response

3. Expectations on unemployment in Iraq in the next 12 months?
31% Fall slightly
24% Remain the same
19% Increase slightly
16% Increase a lot
6% Fall a lot
4% No Response

SOURCES

Farbman, Rob, “IIACSS poll shows Iraqis mostly optimistic as 2010 begins,” Edison Research, 1/6/10

Zawya, “More Iraqis fear unemployment than security issues, YouGov Siraj research report reveals,” 1/12/10

No 2009 Budget Deficit

The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) has released the latest numbers on Iraq’s budget. Although the figures are still estimates, they show that Iraq will not have a large deficit in 2009 as previously reported. Earlier numbers by the SIGIR said that Iraq was running a $16 billion deficit due to low oil prices at the beginning of the year, and oil exports, which provide over 80% of government revenue, not meeting the mark set by the budget. Oil prices rebounded at the end of 2009 however, earning Iraq more than expected, while Baghdad was unable to spend most of its money as usual. By the end of last year, Iraq earned between $43-$45 billion, while spending approximately $37-$46 billion. Those numbers could change, but as of now, the government will either have a surplus or a small deficit. A $3.8 billion loan from the IMF will cover any difference that appears. The Finance Ministry is also in negotiations to borrow $500 million from the World Bank for this year’s expenditures.

The 2010 budget has a projected $18.53 billion deficit. It is for $71.3 billion, with $51.59 billion, 72%, going towards operational costs that are for salaries, pensions, the food ration system, etc., and $19.7 billion, 28%, for capital spending that goes towards investments in infrastructure. The government projects $52.77 billion in revenues, leading to the deficit. While oil exports dropped in 2009, the first time in three years, prices for a barrel of Iraqi crude increased. That, along with the government’s continued spending problems, could mean a smaller than predicted deficit by the end of 2010.

SOURCES

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/10

Will Average Iraqis Benefit From The Country’s Oil Wealth?

As reported before, there are high expectations amongst many Iraqis that the new wave of oil deals signed at the end of 2009 will greatly increase the country’s wealth. At the same time there are questions about whether the money will trickle down to the average Iraqi.

One major problem is that oil is not a labor-intensive industry. Despite providing 90% of the government’s revenue and being the driving force behind the economy, U.S. statistics show that petroleum only employs 2% of the workforce. Any new jobs that might emerge will come from the construction necessary to improve Iraq’s infrastructure for the new oil exploration and shipping. What other countries have done is to create unnecessary governments jobs with their oil wealth to make up for high unemployment. The Iraqi state is already known for this as it is the largest employer in the country.

One economist interviewed by The National warned that increased oil exports could distort the economy. He said that a large increase of oil money would make it cheaper for the government to buy products rather than invest in services and the general infrastructure. The extra funds will also increase the value of the Iraqi dinar and make imports cheaper. The country is already awash in cheap products from Iran, Turkey, China, and others as many tariffs were removed after the U.S. invasion, and this has had a huge negative impact upon domestic producers and businesses.

If these problems are to be avoided, the government must intervene and invest in diversifying the economy. There are several problems with this however. First, 99% of the foreign investment in Iraq goes to the oil and gas industry, something that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. The government therefore, will largely be on its own if it wants to move the economy beyond the energy business, and it may not have the know-how or capacity to do that. Second, Iraq is still ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. The oil deals will concentrate even more power and money in the hands of the bureaucracy who are already known to be unresponsive to the needs of the public. Corruption could become worse as a result, diverting money away from development. To its credit, Baghdad is trying to become more open in its dealings. The first two rounds of oil bids were televised and the contracts made public. The government also joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative in January 2010 that requires members to disclose their taxes, royalties, production, etc., that involve their petroleum industry. Iraq could become even more dependent upon oil in the future, or use the added profits to grow the rest of the economy. Very few countries have been able to do the latter however, so the odds are against Iraq.

SOURCES

Fordham, Alice, “Will oil wealth trickle down?” The National, 1/15/10

Rasheed, Ahmed, “Corruption-plagued Iraq joins oil transparency group,” Reuters, 1/10/10

Oil Revenues Up In Iraq Despite Decrease In Output

As reported before, Iraq’s oil output for 2009 was below that of 2008, but the country’s revenues were up compared to the beginning of 2009. Last year, Iraq averaged 2.02 million barrels a day in total production, and 1.59 million barrels a day in exports, compared to 2.41 million barrels a day in production in 2008, and 1.84 million barrels a day in exports. That was the first time in four years that annual production and export averages did not increase.

Comparing 2008 to 2009 Avg. Oil Output
2008: 2.41 mil/bar/day production, 1.84 mil/bar/day exports
2009: 2.02 mil/bar/day production, 1.59 mil/bar/day exports

Despite that setback, Iraq earned more money at the end of 2009 than the start. In January 2009, Iraq earned $2.1 billion. By December, the country brought in $4.4 billion. Oil exports went up and down during the year, but the price of a barrel of Iraqi crude steadily increased. In January 2009, a barrel went for $36, but by December it was worth $73.39. That meant even though exports saw a slight decline from 1.92 million barrels a day in November to 1.91 million barrels in December, Iraq still earned more money going from $4.2 billion in November to $4.4 billion in December.

Iraq Oil Earnings And Price Of A Barrel Of Crude – 2009
Jan. Earned $2.1 billion, $36 per barrel
Feb. Earned $1.9 billion, $37 per barrel
Mar. Earned $2.4 billion, $44.21 per barrel
Apr. Earned $2.6 billion, $49.21 per barrel
May Earned $3.4 billion, $51-$57 per barrel
Jun. Earned $3.7 billion, $64.37 per barrel 
Jul. Earned $4.0 billion, $64.42 per barrel
Aug. Earned ?, $68.80 per barrel 
Sep. Earned $3.8 billion, $66.05 per barrel
Oct. Earned $4.1 billion, $71.94 per barrel
Nov. Earned $4.2 billion, $73 per barrel 
Dec. Earned $4.4 billion, $73.79 per barrel

Iraq needs to earn as much money as possible because petroleum accounts for the vast majority of its government revenue. This is putting pressure on the Oil Ministry to boost production, but 2009 was a disappointing year, as increased security did not lead to increased output. OPEC is trying to set international petroleum prices at around $70 a barrel right now so upping output may be the only way Iraq can expect to earn more in this new year.

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq Reports Increase in Oil Exports in December, but Revenues Drop,” 1/26/09
- “Iraq’s Oct. oil exports drop due to attacks,” 11/22/09
- “Iraq’s oil exports down in February,” 3/3/09
- “Iraq’s oil exports inch up in January,” 2/1/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Increase in oil exports contributes to budget balance – ministry,” 6/2/09
- “Iraq earns $4.205bn in oil revenues in November 2009,” 12/19/09
- “Iraq’s oil exports in Oct. reach 58.2m barrels,” 11/22/09
- “Iraq’s oil exports reach $3.17m in June 2009,” 7/22/09
- “Iraq’s oil revenues increase in April 2009,” 5/23/09
- “Iraq’s oil revenues up by $300m in Dec. 2009,” 1/23/10
- “Oil exports top 50m barrels in March,” 4/22/09
- “Oil ministry says Iraq’s exports hit $1.9b in Feb.,” 3/28/09

Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “Iraq Status Report,” U.S. Department of State, 1/13/10

DiPala, Anthony, “Iraq Oil Export Income Rose 8.2% to $2.69 Billion in April,” Bloomberg, 5/25/09

Dow Jones Newswires, “Iraq Sep Oil Exports -2.7% On Month At 1.956 Million B/D – Ministry,” 10/27/09

Hafidh, Hassan, “UPDATE: Iraq April Oil Exports 1.82M B/d, Up 0.33% On Month,” Dow Jones, 5/3/09

Lando, Ben, “Iraq oil exports drop in February,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/25/09
- “Iraq oil exports, revenue up,” Iraq Oil Report, 6/29/09
- “More than $4B in July oil sales,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/26/09
- “Oil exports and revenue increase,” Iraq Oil Report, 7/29/09

Reuters, “TABLE-Iraq key economic indicators,” 11/22/09
- “UPDATE 1-Iraq’s oil exports rise to 2.037 mln bpd in July,” 8/2/09

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Oil Ministry: Iraq’s oil revenues drop,” Associated Press, 4/5/09

Report Of Continuing Abuse In Iraqi Prisons

As Iraq looks forward to the March 2010 elections and hopes for another step towards democracy, other parts of Iraqi society remain largely unchanged such as its prison system. On January 26, 2010 the head of parliament’s Human Rights Committee said that there are on going abuses in Iraq’s detention centers. The Committee is conducting an investigation into stories of increasing use of torture and prisoners having to pay bribes to be released.

The roots of these problems are two fold. First, Iraq’s justice system is based upon confessions, and the preferred way to gain them is through beatings and abuse by the authorities. Another major problem is that there have been so many detentions for terrorism and involvement in militant activities over the years that the prison system is overcrowded, which is straining facilities and leading to some horrible conditions. Prisoners are regularly held for days, weeks, and months without hearing their charges or seeing a lawyer.

Back in June 2009, detainees held protests in several prisons against corruption, the lack of trials, and abuse. This led to the Interior Ministry investigating facilities in Maysan and Qadisiyah provinces, and 43 police officers being charged with abuses. A member of the Ministry’s review said that conditions were just as bad as during Saddam’s time, echoing an earlier December 2008 Human Rights Watch report that said the same thing.

Parliament’s Human Rights Committee has often complained about conditions in the country’s justice system, but little has changed. Iraq’s Human Rights Ministry has plenty of similar stories as well, but both groups lack the power to do anything about it. Democracy is more than holding elections and having a parliament, it also means rule by law and having a fair and equal justice system. Iraq is working on one of those, but not the other.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Dangerous violations in detention centers – committee,” 1/26/10

Fordham, Alice, “In Iraq’s prisons, a culture of abuse,” Christian Science Monitor, 9/13/09

Latif, Nizar, “Horrors of Iraq prison torture continue,” The National, 9/5/09

United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, “Human Rights Report 1 January – 30 June 2009,” 12/15/09