2nd Clash Between Iraqi Police And Protestors In Nasiriyah Over Electricity

On the night of August 21, 2010 around 200 people in Nasiryah, the provincial capital of Dhi Qar, marched to the governorate council building to demonstrate against the lack of power. People in the crowd shouted, “Where is the electricity State of Law?” in reference to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s list. Some ended up throwing rocks at the police and the council headquarters. That led to clashes with the security forces, who used water cannons to break up the protest. 40 people ended up getting arrested, 16 were wounded, including 10 policemen, and a curfew was imposed upon the city. A spokesman for the provincial council said the demonstration was not spontaneous and claimed an investigation was underhand to determine who was behind it. The head of the council said he didn’t know why people had taken to the streets as he claimed the electricity supply had recently improved.

As reported earlier, authorities knew about the demonstration in advance. On August 16, they sent out police to neighborhoods with bullhorns to tell people to stay away from any planned protest. That obviously did not work.

Back in June there was a larger demonstration in Nasiriyah over the lack of electricity. 1,000 people were said to have turned out, and 16 police were wounded during that incident. That happened after similar actions were taken in Basra and other cities. Those eventually led Maliki to dump the Electricity Minister.

Iraqis are still facing a very hot summer this year. Temperatures are hovering around 120 degrees. Power output is said to stand at about 8,000 megawatts per day, while demand is approximately 14,000. The Electricity Ministry rations out power output to the provinces, but with the heat many are ignoring their quotas and using more, which is overloading the system. On August 12 for example, the governorates used so much that the entire power grid was shut down for seven hours.

There is no immediate relief to be had for the temperatures or the deficiencies with electricity. The lack of services was an issue in both the 2009 and 2010 elections, but the new politicians have not fixed the problem. That can only lead to the growing disillusionment with the government that is overflowing into public anger as seen in Nasiriyah in June and August. That could lead to a real crisis of governance within the country as the public may lose faith in the infant democratic process since it has not addressed their demands.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Police in Thi-Qar admit 40 riot makers to judiciary,” 8/22/10

Attiya, Bassem, “Sixteen wounded in Iraq electricity demo,” Agence France Presse, 8/22/10

Lando, Ben, “Heat wave hits citizens, fuel and power supplies,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/16/10

Al-Rafidayn, “16 injured, including 10 police officers in acts of violence associated with a demonstration in Nasiriyah,” 8/22/10

Reuters, “Iraq police, protesters clash over power shortages,” 8/22/10

Tawfeeq, Mohammed, “Hundreds protest bad basic services in Iraq,” CNN, 8/22/10

Iraq’s Northern Oil Pipeline Down Again

In more troubling news for the Iraqi oil industry, the northern pipeline to Turkey is down once again. Originally a department head in the North Oil Company that is in charge of the pipeline reported that there was a blast in Ninewa province that knocked it out of service. Later, officials said the problem was a leak that occurred at a point that had previously been bombed. It’s supposed to take 2-3 days to repair the line.

This is only the latest incident to afflict the northern pipeline. Earlier in August and in July the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) blew up sections of the line in Turkey shutting it down. In July, technical problems closed down operations, and June and April insurgents and oil smugglers had at it as well.

The Turkish pipeline was largely out of service until 2007 because of insurgent attacks, but since then has carried an average of 25% of Iraq’s petroleum exports due to improved security. With all the problems in 2010 however, that has been cut. In July 2010 for example, the line carried an average of 374,000 barrels a day, 20% of overall exports for the month. Insurgents and smugglers are finding holes in the Pipeline Exclusion Zone that protects most of the northern line, while the lack of maintenance and deteriorating infrastructure is causing breakdowns and leaks. It’s for those reasons that northern oil fields received little attention by international companies during the two bidding rounds in 2009, and the Oil Ministry is focusing most of their plans for expansion in the southern section of the country.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Turkey-bound pipeline repair starts – source,” 8/21/10

Bloomberg, “Iraq oil exports via Turkey resume after blast,” 8/22/10

Hafidh, Hassan, “Iraq July Oil Exports -0.16% On Month At 1.820 Million B/D – Official,” Dow Jones 8/9/10

Reuters, “Iraq resumes pumping oil on pipeline to Turkey,” 7/4/10
- “UPDATE 1-Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline flow halted-Iraq oil source,” 8/21/10

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/10

Higher Oil Prices And Lack Of Spending Leading To Iraqi Budget Surplus

When Iraq’s parliament passed its 2010 budget in January for $72.4 billion, it was expected to run a $19.6 billion deficit. The problem was that it called for 2.15 million barrels a day in oil exports, something that has not been achieved since the 2003 invasion. At the same time, it was based upon a price of $62.50 a barrel, which was below what Iraqi crude was going for at that moment. Rather than coming up short, the government may actually finish the year with another surplus.

The possible surplus would come from higher than expected oil prices, a lack of spending, and loans. For the first six months of 2010 Iraqi petroleum has been selling at an average price of $74.93 per barrel. It reached a high of $79.66 per barrel in April. That has brought in $25.2 billion in revenue, and if it stayed at that level Iraq would earn around $50.4 from oil this year. In 2009 the country only earned $37.02 billion.Another factor is that it has been five months since Iraq’s parliamentary elections and the country still has no government. One isn’t expected to be formed until the fall when Ramadan ends. That has held up government expenditures. Baghdad and the provinces have also never been able to spend all of their money. The 2009 budget for example, was predicted to run a $16 billion deficit, but ended up having a $2.5 billion surplus partly because of lower than expected capital spending, which goes towards infrastructure. The same is likely to happen this year. Iraq has also secured several loans, starting with $3.6 billion from the International Monetary Fund in February, and $250 million from the World Bank, both of which were to go to covering any budget deficit.

Iraq has had surpluses every year since it got back its sovereignty in 2005 from the United States. That’s mainly because the government bureaucracy lacks the capacity to deal with all of the money that it has. That’s especially true for the capital budgets each year. Oil prices have also recovered after being hit by the world recession. Together, these mean that the 2010 budget will be little different from previous ones with extra funds leftover.

SOURCES

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/10
- “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/10
- “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 4/30/10

Iraqi Insurgents Picking Up Attacks Upon Power Grid

On August 14, 2010 a bomb went off at the Mosul power station. The explosive cut the gas pipeline that provides fuel for the plant, leading to several areas of Ninewa province losing electricity. This was part of a stepped up campaign by militants in northern Iraq against the country’s power grid. In recent months 18 transmission towers were bombed in Ninewa and Salahaddin, with 14 of them collapsing. The U.S. claims these attacks had minimal impact upon the power supply. That may be because the towers were quickly repaired, electricity was diverted to other routes, or that supply is so spotty to begin with, the loss of a tower had little affect.

Northern Iraq remains one of the most active areas for insurgents. They have been stepping up their attacks in recent months, expanding from their regular operations against Iraqi forces and civilians to include infrastructure. They have been increasingly targeting the oil pipeline to Turkey for example that flows through Salahaddin, Tamim, and Ninewa. The bombing of the Mosul power station, and electricity towers appear to be part of this plan as well. These are all meant to undermine the government by showing the public that they cannot be protected, that the country’s main source of revenue, petroleum, can be threatened, and that power, which is already in short supply, can be cut off. These attacks are still at a very low level, but it is of concern that insurgents are successfully finding new targets.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Sabotage stops power station in Mosul,” 8/14/10

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/10

Notorious Special Groups Commander Returns To Iraq

Asharq al-Awsat reported on August 18, 2010 that Abu Dura, aka Ismail Hafiz al-Lami, a wanted Special Groups commander recently returned to Iraq from Iran. Abu Dura is a Sadr City native, who joined the Iraqi Army during the Saddam era, and became a non-commissioned officer. He deserted in 2000, and when the U.S. invaded in 2003 he took part in the looting of the capital. He quickly turned to hunting down and killing former Baathists and army officers, and became a brigade commander in Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. He fought against the Americans in the 2004 Sadrist uprising in Najaf. That same year he went to Iran for the first time, where he received training and assistance from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Sometime afterward he broke with the Mahdi Army, along with other commanders, who were mad that Sadr agreed to a cease-fire and decided to participate in politics.

During the sectarian civil war of 2005-2007 Abu Dura said that he would cleanse Baghdad of Sunnis, and was notorious for doing away with his victims with an electric drill. His group allegedly killed thousands of Sunnis, assassinated Saddam Hussein’s lawyer, kidnapped a member of parliament, and snatched up workers from the Ministry of Higher Education. Although Abu Dura was publicly condemned by the mainstream Sadrist movement, U.S. forces believed he was still loosely tied to it. During the 2008 crackdown on the Sadr trend, Abu Dura fled to Iran.

Today Abu Dura is said to be a commander in the League of the Righteous, another breakaway Sadrist militia. From late-2009 to early-2010 the U.S. encouraged Baghdad to hold talks with the League to end their outlaw status, but the talks were inconclusive. The negotiations did lead to the release of the movement’s leader, Qais Khazali in early 2010 in return for a British contractor the group had kidnapped. The league had a brief cease-fire, but is now believed to have gone back to attacking U.S. and Iraqi forces, and Abu Dura is allegedly involved in those operations.

The return of Abu Dura is a bad sign for Iraq. Shiite groups like the League of the Righteous as well as Iran are trying to take credit for the U.S. withdrawal by conducting operations against American forces, while Sunni militants are continuing with their high profile mass-casualty attacks to undermine the state. There have also been reports that the various Shiite militias have been fighting each other in Baghdad as well. Such a notorious Special Groups commander as Abu Dura can only be coming to Iraq to sow mayhem at a time of uncertainty over the future of the government and competence of the security forces. What may constrain him are the capabilities of the League of the Righteous. So far, the Special Groups have only been firing rockets and setting off roadside bombs at a very low level. People like Abu Dura may have plans to do more, but he may not have the supplies and manpower to do so. Still his presence in Baghdad can only raise tensions within Iraq. 

SOURCES

Cochrane, Marisa, “The Fragmentation of the Sadrist Movement,” Institute for the Study of War, January 2009

Fayad, Ma’ad, “Iraq: Notorious Shiite Warlord Returns to Baghdad,” Asharq Al-Awsat, 8/18/10

Knickmeyer, Ellen and Anderson, John Ward, “Iraq Tells U.S. to Quit Checkpoints,” Washington Post, 11/1/06

Londono, Ernesto and Fadel, Leila, “U.S. failure to neutralize Shiite militia in Iraq threatens to snarl pullout,” Washington Post, 3/4/10

Olive Group, “Weekly Security Update,” Iraq Business News, 8/4/10

Swain, Jon, “Is this Iraq’s most prolific mass killer?” Sunday Times of London, 1/21/07

U.S. And Iran Both Support Maliki, But Disagree Upon The Coalition Behind Him

Both Washington and Tehran are currently backing Nouri al-Maliki to return as Iraq’s premier, but they disagree about how to form a ruling coalition. The United States is hoping that Maliki’s State of Law and Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement will come to a power sharing agreement where Maliki remains as prime minister and Allawi becomes the head of a new national security council that is supposed to place some kind of checks on the use of the armed forces, which Maliki has been criticized for in the past. The U.S. is also hoping to sideline the Sadrists for their anti-American views. Iran supports Maliki as well to preserve Shiite control of Iraq, but disagrees upon how to achieve that goal. They want State of Law and the Sadrist-Supreme Council led Iraqi National Alliance to form the backbone of the new government, and don’t want Allawi to have a prominent role because Tehran believes he will bring back Sunni and Baathist rule. Both Iran and America are talking about a national unity coalition after the two main parties are established. That would include State of Law, the Iraqi National Movement, the Iraqi National Alliance, the Kurdish Alliance, and perhaps some of the smaller lists as well.

Despite this congruence of interests, Washington and Tehran are still working at cross-purposes within Iraq. They both support Maliki, they both want the major parties to come together, but they are divided on the role of Allawi. They are also running up against the personal politics of Iraq’s leaders. Allawi and Maliki for example are both demanding to be premier, while the National Alliance does not trust Maliki. This outside influence, plus the shortsightedness of Iraqi politicians is a major reason why Iraq has no government months after the March 2010 elections. When one is formed, it will look a lot like the previous one, and be just as divided, unwieldy, and dysfunctional. How it’s made up will likely show which foreign power has more influence as well, Iran or the U.S.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iran’s presence in Iraq relies on NC’s existence – Shiite source,” 7/17/10

Christie, Michael and al-Salhy, Suadad, “SCENARIOS-What is going on in Iraqi politics?” Reuters, 7/19/10

Dagher, Sam, “Iraq Weighs New Post to Help Form Government,” Wall Street Journal, 8/16/10

England, Andrew, “Deadlock in Baghdad as rivals stand firm,” Financial Times, 8/12/10

MEMRI Staff, “Divisions among Shi’a Could Prolong Discussion to Form a New Government,” MEMRI Blog, 6/25/10

Najm, Hayder, “al-maliki to bring washington and Tehran closer,” Niqash, 8/13/10

Iraqi Authorities In Nasiriyah Prevent Protest Over Lack Of Electricity

On August 16, 2010 Iraqi police in Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar walked the streets telling people that they could not participate in a planned protest over the lack of power. One local official said that the provincial council had ordered the demonstration shut down, while the head of the security committee denied that.

Iraq is currently facing 120 degree weather, made worse by the fact that Dhi Qar and other southern governorates are only receiving an average of four hours a day of electricity. In June Iraqis took to the streets in Dhi Qar, along with Basra, Anbar, Wasit, and Diyala demanding that the government provide a better supply of power. There have not been any protests since then, and it appears that some local authorities are determined to prevent any repeats.

Since 2003 the amount of electricity available has increased, but it has always been outstripped by demand. Usage is also seasonal with it obviously increasing during the summer months putting an added strain on the country’s power stations. In February 2010 for example, it was estimated that the power supply met 70% of demand, but that dropped to 66% in May. Poor management, fuel shortages, attacks upon infrastructure, maintenance, and breakdowns are also endemic making the supply inconsistent. With security improving, the lack of services has become a major issue in recent years with electricity at the top of the list. That anger overflowed this summer in places like Nasiriyah, which led to provincial governments panicking, and they are now working to stop any further public outbursts.

SOURCES

DPA, “Iraqi police move to block protests over power shortages – Summary,” 8/16/10

Ebel, Robert, “Geopolitics and Energy in Iraq,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 2010

Myers, Steven Lee, “A Benchmark of Progress, Electrical Grid Fails Iraqis,” New York Times, 8/1/10

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/10