Violence Down In Iraq 1st Week Of February 2015

 

Attacks across Iraq took a dip in the first week of February 2015. January was marked by a number of offensive operations by the insurgents, which led to an increase in security incidents and casualties. At the start of February, however the number of incidents, dead, and wounded were what they were like in December showing the ebb and flow in the fighting in the country.

From February 1-7 there were 155 reported incidents. That averaged out to 22.1 per day, which was down from 26.1 in January. Attacks had been going up since the end of December and peaked in January, but then declined in February. Baghdad led the way with 57 incidents. There were 35 in Anbar, 25 in Salahaddin, 18 in Ninewa, 10 in Babil, 5 in Diyala, 4 in Kirkuk, and one in Wasit.

For the week there were 380 killed and 688 wounded. Deaths decreased from an average of 73.7 per day in January to 54.2 in February. The number of wounded increased from 93.3 last month to 98.2 this month. Baghdad was the deadliest province with 117 killed, followed by 107 in Ninewa, 75 in Salahaddin, 60 in Anbar, 10 in Diyala, 7 in Babil, two in Kirkuk, and one in Wasit.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	179	803	759
Jun 22-28	203	733	777
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593
Nov 15-21	134	283	464
Nov 22-28	138	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	510
NOV	593	1,831	3,035
Dec 1-7	137	323	476
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	432
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	678	1,774	3,038
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688

Violence In Iraq By Province, Feb. 2015

Province	Violence
Anbar	35 Incidents 60 Killed: 9 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 46 Civilians 128 Wounded: 4 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 116 Civilians 14 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs 5 Mortars 1 Mine
Babil	10 Incidents 7 Killed: 2 ISF, 5 Civilians 27 Wounded: 7 ISF, 20 Civilians 5 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Grenade
Baghdad	57 Incidents 117 Killed: 2 ISF, 115 Civilians 355 Wounded: 10 ISF, 345 Civilians 19 Shootings 35 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers 3 Car Bombs
Diyala	5 Incidents 10 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 8 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian 2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga 4 Shootings 1 IED
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 2 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian 4 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga 1 Shooting 2 IEDs 4 Car Bombs
Ninewa	18 Incidents 107 Killed: 3 ISF, 104 Civilians 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 11 Shootings 28 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 6 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Salahaddin	25 Incidents 75 Killed: 34 ISF, 41 Civilians 165 Wounded: 38 ISF, 127 Civilians 14 Shootings 38 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Wasit	1 Incident 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq Feb. 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Feb 1
Feb 2	Khabaz x4, Kirkuk Samarra, Salahaddin	21	26
Feb 3	Karrada x3, Baghdad	5	17
Feb 4	Haditha, Anbar		3
Feb 5	Ramadi, Anbar Jazeera, Salahaddin	13	13
Feb 6
Feb 7	Tigris Axis x7, Ninewa
Totals	18	39	59

There was a decided increase in car bombs in Iraq. For the first seven days of February there were 18. After a two year low in December, the Islamic State picked up its use of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in January with 45. In the last three days of that month there were nine alone. From February 2-5 IS launched a wave of 11 VBIEDs across Anbar, Baghdad, Kirkuk, and Salahaddin. All but three of those were used in tactical attacks, such as on February 2 when four car bombs were launched at peshmerga who had just taken back the oil facility at Khabaz in Kirkuk. This has been the trend in recent months as IS has shifted its car bombs away from terrorist attacks upon civilians to hard targets like checkpoints, army bases, etc.

Insurgents continued to carry out attacks throughout Anbar, but to no avail. They attacked Amiriya Fallujah in the east by Babil, Haditha, Baghdadi, and Albu Hayat in the center, the Howaz and government complex districts in Ramadi, and Ana in the west. A member of the Anbar council said that the Islamic State (IS) controlled 60% of Ramadi, and several of the surrounding towns, but it has not made any real gains in several months now.

The security forces (ISF) and tribes in Anbar are undermanned and unable to hold much territory. That has led to repeated operations in the same areas for a year now. In February for example, there was a sweep around Albu Hayat, which was cleared in September and January. There were also operations in Baghdadi, Amiriya Fallujah to try to break the siege there, and Ramadi. Anbar is not a priority for the government and therefore the ISF and tribes have struggled there. Until that changes the deadlock in the province will continue.

Government shelling of Fallujah continued as well. The city was hit six out of seven days leading to 29 dead and 102 wounded. That was 33% of the total fatalities for the week, and 45% of the injured.

Casualties Government Shelling In Anbar Feb. 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Feb 1	Fallujah	9	44
Feb 2	Fallujah	2	7
Feb 3	Fallujah	7	12
Feb 4	Fallujah	2	6
Feb 5	Fallujah	4	16
Feb 7	Fallujah	5	17
Total	-	29	102

Baghdad led the country in attacks with 57. That was almost double that of Anbar that was second in incidents with 35. Instead of car bombs, which used to be the main driver of casualties in the capital, insurgents are now using more and more improvised explosive devices. There were 35 during the week. 22 of those were aimed at businesses like shops and markets to maximize casualties. There were three car bombs that all came on one day February 3 in Karrada in the center of the capital. All together that led to 117 killed and 355 wounded in the province.

Diyala had very few incidents. There were only five reported in the press at the beginning of February, which led to 10 dead and two wounded. It appears that the recent security operation in Muqtadiya in January has disrupted militant networks. At the same time the claim that the entire governorate has been cleared was premature. On February 1, Diyala’s governor warned that the Hamrin Mountains were still a security threat, and then on February 5 the peshmerga conducted a sweep through 17 villages in the Tabja area of Jalawla in the northeast. The Kurds claimed that IS was moving there after being pushed out of Muqtadiya. The peshmerga said that militants still had a presence in Hamrin as well. That area was never cleared even when the U.S. was in the country, and was one of the first places insurgents began regrouping back in 2012.

During the first week of February there was a clash between IS and the Baathist Naqshibandi in Kirkuk. That took place on February 6 in Hawija in the southeast. According to an eyewitness the fighting lasted for two hours and resulted in the deaths of 18 militants. Hawija was a Naqshibandi stronghold in 2013, and it ran the protest site there, which was attacked by government forces in April leading to the deaths of several demonstrators. After the summer offensive in 2014 however, the IS eventually pushed the Naqshibandi out as they’ve done in other sections of the country. The two have fought before in other parts of the country such as Diyala, but this is the first reported incident between the two in some time.

Ninewa witnessed a large number of casualties in February. That was due to a series of mass graves being discovered in areas recently cleared of IS. On February 2 the bodies of 30 Yazidis killed by the Islamists were found in Sinjar. Two days later another grave was found with 27 more Yazidis in it. February 5 23 people were found in Zummar, and then 16 more Yazidis in that area on February 6. Each time the Islamic State has been pushed out of an area similar sites have been found. There are probably many more to be found in the future.

In Salahaddin the ISF and militias carried out an extensive sweep of the Baiji area. This was the third time government forces cleared the area having been there before from October to November, and then in January. The security forces, tribes, and Shiite armed groups had a series of victories in the province towards the end of 2014, but they don’t appear to have the forces to hold these areas forcing them to carry out repeated security operations in the same areas.

SOURCES

AIN, "Mass grave seized western Mosul," 2/2/15

- "Security forces foil ISIL's attack on governmental complex in Ramadi," 2/6/15

eKurd, “Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief – February 5, 2015,” 2/5/15

Al Forat, "12 Terrorists killed, 30 IEDs dismantled northern Tikrit," 2/5/15

- "Anbar: ISF& volunteers completely liberate Albu Hayat from ISIL," 1/17/15

- "ISF, volunteers surround Albo-Hayat village western Anbar," 2/1/15

Iraq Times, "Martyrdom and wounding 22 civilians by a car bomb in central Baghdad's Karrada," 2/3/15

Al Mada, “Anbar Council: Daash controls 60% of Ramadi,” 2/1/15

Al Masalah, "3 children injured in a suicide bombing," 2/4/15

- "The killing of nine Daash in clashes with the security forces in southern Ramadi," 2/3/15

- "A mass grave with the remains of 23 people in Zammar," 2/5/15

- “Nostra: the hills of Hamrin source of concern for Diyala,” 2/1/15

Millet, "Peshmerga and Yazidi Mass Graves Found," 2/4/15

NINA, "/15/ Elements the army and the Awakening killed and wounded in the explosion of a Hummer bomb driven by a suicide bomber east of Ramadi," 2/5/15

- “/18/ Elements of the IS and Naqshbandi killed in clashes between them in Hawija and the IS executed 11 of its elements,” 2/6/15

- "/36/ Elements of the IS killed western Mosul," 2/7/15

- "Anbar Operations announces the killing of /26/ elements of the IS in different parts of the province," 2/3/15

- "Breaking News..7 Policemen Killed, Four Wounded In Suicide Bombing In Tikrit," 2/5/15

- "Clashes Erupt Near Amiriyat al-Fallujah," 2/1/15

- "The cleansing of Albu Hayat of Haditha from Daash," 9/17/14

- "Three Suicide Bombers Blow Themselves After Being Surrounded By Peshmerga, West Of Kirkuk," 2/1/15

- "Urgent….Car Bomb, Driven By Suicide Bomber, North Of Samarra Targets Security Forces And Popular Mobilization," 2/2/15

Radio Free Iraq, "01 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/1/15

- "02 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/2/15

- "04 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/4/15

- "05 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/5/15

- "07 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/7/15

Salama, Vivian, "Officials: Explosions in the Iraqi capital kill more than a dozen people," 2/3/15

Today Online, "Second Yazidi mass grave unearthed in Iraq this week," 2/7/15

Iraqi Officials Continue To Under Report Casualties

 

When the insurgents launched their summer offensive in June 2014 the Iraqi authorities stopped reporting on their casualties. Huge losses were likely incurred with no real accounting for them. Today official disclosures are still shoddy. An improvised explosive device or a small shootout likely results in some figures on the dead and wounded for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), militias, tribes, or Kurdish forces, but there is usually silence after major confrontations. A perfect example of this trend was shown when the Peshmerga Ministry recently announced losses from June 2014 to the start of February 2015, which were far off from figures in the press.

On February 4, 2015 the Peshmerga Minister Jabbar Yawar released official numbers on Kurdish losses since June. Yawar said that 999 Peshmerga had died and 4,569 had been wounded from June 10, 2014 to February 3, 2015. Kurdish officials have released casualty figures a few times before, and actually had higher numbers than what had been released in the press up to that point, but this time there was a huge divergence. According to news reports 1,136 Peshmerga have been killed and 5,331 injured during the time period Yawar mentioned. That was a total of 6,467 compared to 5,568 announced by the Ministry, a difference of 899. To add to this issue is the fact that the media only covers a percentage of the actual casualties. That means the difference between the Ministry’s numbers and the real number of dead and wounded is probably even larger.

Official vs Media Reports On Peshmerga Casualties

	Peshmerga Ministry	Media Reports	Difference
Dead	999	1,136	137
Wounded	4,569	5,331	762

The Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments have a number of reasons for not reporting their losses. First if the actual numbers were released, and they are quite large, which they probably are, it could undermine morale in the country. Second, they could undermine the authorities. One reason why Nouri al-Maliki did not return for a third term was that he was blamed for the fall of Mosul in June. Letting the public know how many lives this cost would have opened him up to even more criticism. This same concern applies to new Premier Haider Abadi and Kurdish President Massoud Barzani. Finally, neither Baghdad nor Irbil is known for transparency. There are plenty of government activities that are never made public. When the war broke out there was every reason to keep casualty figures secret. That doesn’t mean losses are never given as the Peshmerga announcement makes clear, but the actual totals are still apparently under wraps.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Nearly 1,000 Iraq Kurds killed fighting IS since June,” 2/4/15

eKurd, “999 Kurdish Peshmerga troops killed in fighting with Islamic State: Yawar,” 2/4/15

RUSSIA TODAY VIDEO: Iraq: Celebrations as curfew lifted after 12 years

KORBER STIFTUNG VIDEO: Haider Al-Abadi Prime Minister Of Iraq

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM VIDEO: A Vision For Iraq

Iraq National Guard Bill Finally Out Of Cabinet And In Parliament But No Guarantee Of Passage

After months of bickering Iraq’s cabinet finally approved the draft bill on creating a new National Guard. There were deep differences within the Council of Ministers over who would control the Guard, how big it would be, who would pay for it, etc. Many Shiite and Kurdish parties were afraid that the new force would be taken over by insurgents or anti-government tribes. Several major revisions were made to the draft legislation before it was passed onto parliament, but there are still enough differences that there is no guarantee that it will be voted on any time soon.

When Prime Minister Haider Abadi came into office in September 2014, he proposed creating a National Guard that would not only help with security, but would also reach out to Sunnis. Originally the concept was for local armed forces to be raised in each province, which would be under the control of the governors. Press reports focused upon incorporating pro-government Sunni tribes into the new Guard, but militias would also be included. There was a report in Al Jazeera that the United States wanted insurgent groups like the Baathist Naqsibandi, the Islamic Army and Hamas-Iraq to join as well. Some provinces and tribes immediately supported the idea. Many sheikhs and the local government in Anbar for example, quickly jumped on board and began holding talks with the premier about how to move forward. Most of Anbar had fallen to insurgents by then, and the provincial council and tribes had been begging for help for months. Other governorates didn’t have enough police, soldiers or militias to fully secure their territory and saw the National Guard as an additional force to help in that effort. On the other hand, many Shiite and Kurdish factions were against the idea. Some Kurdish politicians warned that the Guard could be a long term risk to the country, and could be used in conflicts between provinces. A Badr lawmaker said that the government didn’t need the National Guard because the militias could defeat the insurgency on their own. There were also questions about who would control the Guard, how it would be organized, its salaries, and powers. The main fear however by both groups was that the Guard could be used against the central or regional governments by hostile Sunnis. If the Al Jazeera piece was to be believed, the U.S. was stoking these fears by talking about including Baathists and active insurgent groups. These divisions led to a series of delays within the cabinet, and a special committee was created to re-draft the bill.

Finally, at the start of February the cabinet passed the National Guard bill with some major amendments, but there were still major splits between the parties. The bill was passed by a vote of 19 to 13. Most of those voting against the draft came from the Shiite National Alliance showing that they still had deep reservations. On the other hand, a lawmaker said all the Sunni ministers voted for it. The legislation has gone through some major revisions. No longer would the Guard be under the governors, but rather the prime minister as Commander and Chief of the Armed Forces. Governors could reject forming units in their provinces if they wanted to however. There would also be two types of Guard, one would be on duty full time and consistent of the most experienced members. The other would be a reserve that would only be called up when needed. The Guard would also help with national disasters and not just security duties. Finally the peshmerga would not be included. There are still questions about how big the force would be, and what would happen with Guard members after the insurgency is defeated. There was some talk of creating a sectarian quota for how many Guard members would be Shiite and Sunni, but that doesn’t appear to have been agreed upon. The discussion will now move to the parliament, which is just as split over the legislation as the cabinet was. Given the large number of lawmakers the debate is likely to be even more heated than in the cabinet.

Premier Abadi is hoping that the National Guard cannot only assist with fighting the insurgency, but helps reconcile with Sunnis, but there is still a lot of opposition from Shiite and Kurdish parties that could delay or kill the bill. The prime minister was able to push the draft through the cabinet in four months. Concerns over governors manipulating the National Guard for their own personal gain appeared to have been overcome by placing the force under the prime minister. Still, the fact that most of the Shiite ministers voted against it means there is no guarantee it will get through the legislature. The fears of a Sunni 5^th column forming within the Guard will be hard to overcome.

SOURCES

Buratha News, “A senior Kurdish official: the risk of the National Guard being formed may outweigh the risk of terrorism,” 12/28/14

Daragahi, Borzou, “War on Isis: Under fire,” Financial Times, 10/1/14

Al Mada, “13 ministers, mostly Shiites oppose National Guard .. and Sunnis voted without full access to the details,” 2/4/15

- “Abadi in dialogue with the elders of Anbar: competition between the two groups over recruiting 30 thousand fighters .. stuck on political demands,” 10/30/14

- “Austerity threatens to postpone the National Guard to the next year and the amendments with the central government,” 1/16/15

- “”Honeymoon” between Abadi and Sunnis ending threats and reservations inhibiting National Guard,” 1/3/15

- “Minister: National Guard and amendments to Accountability and Justice passed by a simple majority in cabinet meeting,” 2/3/15

- “Minister: National Guard in front of the government tomorrow .. and secured 50 thousands compared to 70 components for the Shiites,” 2/2/15

- “Zebari Obeidi Araji preparing National Guard law .. and the government wants guarantees,” 11/24/14

Al Masalah, “Badr: Iraqis do not need the National Guard to defeat Daash,” 1/1/15

- “League of the Righteous: do not object to the National Guard,” 2/4/15

Morris, Loveday, “Iraq plans a new force to counter Islamic State. Here’s why some say it’s doomed,” Washington Post, 9/13/14

Mustafa, Hamza, “Iraq PM promises National Guard within six months,” Asharq Al-Awsat, 2/1/15

Naji, Jamal, “Abadi shakes up military leadership after Anbar massacre,” Iraq Oil Report, 9/24/14

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Fighting for Iraq’s National Guard,” Al Jazeera, 2/2/15

Wehrey, Frederic, Ahram, Ariel, “The National Guard in Iraq: A Risky Strategy to Combat the Islamic State,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9/23/14

Extrajudicial Killings In Iraq’s Capital Remain Unchanged January 2015

Bodies being dumped in Baghdad’s neighborhoods have been a long time occurrence. In 2014 there was a huge surge in these extra judicial killings during the summer as the insurgents launched their offensive and there was widespread fear that they would reach the capital. Afterward the numbers gradually went down, and have since stabilized.

For the last four months there have been roughly the same number of bodies turning up in Baghdad. In October 2014, 43 bodies were discovered, followed by 46 in November, 42 in December, and 47 in January. That compared to the summer months when this phenomenon skyrocketed from 52 in June to 104 in July to 53 in August. The surge in July was due to the insurgent summer offensive. During that time there was a widespread belief that the militants would reach Baghdad after the sudden collapse in Mosul and Tikrit. That seemed to prompt militias to carry out a huge number of retaliatory attacks. After that threat subsided the figures began going down until reaching the current level.

Bodies Dumped In Baghdad 2014-2015

Month	Bodies
Jan	31
Feb	35
Mar	26
Apr	27
May	38
Jun	52
Jul	104
Aug	53
Sep	34
Oct	43
Nov	46
Dec	42
Jan	47

It’s impossible to tell who are the perpetrators of all of these deaths. In January for instance there were three stabbings, which could have been just regular crimes. On the other hand, there are many times when bodies are found handcuffed and tortured or multiple bodies are found that were likely the work of some armed faction. On January 28 for instance, a man’s body was found in the Ur neighborhood handcuffed, blindfolded, and shot in the head. Then on January 29 nine bodies were found in one location all shot in southeastern Baghdad. Another hint at who was responsible was the locations these bodies were found in. Many times where bodies were discovered were not where the murders were committed. At the same time, certain groups have a history of dumping their victims in specific areas dating back to the civil war period of 2005-2008. In January, 17 out of 34 bodies were found in eastern Baghdad in Shiite neighborhoods such as New Baghdad, which were probably the work of militias. On the other hand five bodies were found in the south in Dora, which could have been the work of insurgents. Ultimately, much of this was guess work, but it was undoubtedly true that armed groups from various factions were detaining people and killing them in the capital.

When the insurgency took off in 2014 many feared that the number of extrajudicial killings would sky rocket along with overall violence. That theory did not prove true as these types of murders declined after the summer. These incidents have now leveled off and will probably remain at the current level unless new fears emerge of an insurgent drive into the capital. Hopefully that won’t happen and these deaths might actually go down in the future.

SOURCES

Iraq Times, "Police found four bodies in different parts of Baghdad," 1/6/15

Al Mada, "Found the bodies of a man and a woman who were dumped, shot south of Baghdad," 1/10/15

Al Masalah, "Found 9 bodies and a woman died in Baghdad," 1/29/15

NINA, "A dead body found , western of Baghdad," 1/27/15

- "Two Bodies Found In Baghdad," 1/26/15

- "Unidentified Body Found East Of Baghdad," 1/11/15

- "Unidentified Body Found East of Baghdad," 1/22/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/4/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/4/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/5/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/7/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/13/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/15/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/19/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/19/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/21/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/25/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/25/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Baghdad," 1/28/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Central Baghdad," 1/29/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In East Of Baghdad," 1/28/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Eastern Baghdad," 1/13/15

- "Unidentified Body Found In Eastern Baghdad," 1/20/15

- "Unidentified Body Found Northeast Of Baghdad," 1/11/15

- "Unidentified Body Found Northeast Of Baghdad," 1/14/15

- "Unidentified Body Found South Of Baghdad," 1/12/15

- "Unidentified Body Found South of Baghdad," 1/12/15

- "Unidentified Body Found Southwest Of Baghdad," 1/20/15

- "An unidentified dead body found in eastern Baghdad," 1/12/15

- "An unidentified dead body found in eastern Baghdad," 1/13/15

- "An unidentified dead body, found northeast of Baghdad," 1/5/15

- "An unidentified dead body found south of Baghdad," 1/15/15