Violence In Iraq, Dec 2015

December 2015 ended with the second lowest number of security incidents, while casualties stayed steady for the last quarter of the year. Anbar, Baghdad and Ninewa were the most violent. In Anbar the Ramadi operation was on going, in Baghdad IS was continuing with its terrorist campaign, and in Ninewa the insurgents opened a new winter offensive against the Peshmerga.

There were 553 incidents reported in the press in December 2015. That was the second lowest amount of the year with November’s 530 being the fewest. Baghdad had the most incidents by far with 240. Ninewa was second with 93, followed by 76 in Anbar, 65 in Salahaddin, 25 in Babil, 23 each in Diyala and Kirkuk, 5 in Basra, and 1 each in Karbala, Maysan, and Qadisiyah. There are always more attacks then what gets in the media.

Overall, violence across Iraq steadily declined during the year. There were an average of 27.3 attacks per day during the first quarter, down to 22.0 in the second, 19.5 in the third, and 18.1 by the fourth.

Avg. Attacks Per Day By Quarter In Iraq, 2015

1^st Qtr 27.3 per day

2^nd Qtr 22.0 per day

3^rd Qtr 19.5 per day

4^th Qtr 18.1 per day

During the month there were a total of 1,155 deaths reported and 1,252 wounded. The dead broke down to 6 Yazidi fighters, 20 volunteers at a Ninewa camp, 39 Sahwa, 47 Hashd al-Shaabi, 220 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 684 civilians. The injured were made up of 5 Sahwa, 12 Turkish soldiers, 30 volunteers, 50 Hashd, 52 Peshmerga, 138 ISF, and 965 civilians. These figures should be considered a minimum because the Iraqi government is suppressing losses and not all violence gets reported.

In Anbar there were 235 killed and 88 wounded. Almost all of those casualties, 212 dead and 61 injured, happened in and around Ramadi. The security forces successfully pushed their way into the center of the city by the end of the month resulting in some heavy losses for the ISF. In the aftermath 90 people were found executed within Ramadi and to the east. The Islamic State’s main response to the advances in Ramadi was launching 100 car bombs and 30 suicide bombers during December. 88 of the vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) were destroyed, while 12 hit their targets. 25 of the suicide bombers were also killed, and 5 got through.

Violence in Babil has remained at a relatively low level for the last year. There has been less then one attack per day in the province since March. During December, most of the attacks were improvised explosive devices (IEDs), 18, along with 4 shootings and 2 sticky bombs. All of these happened in the north in places like Latifiya, Mahmudiya, Yusifiya, where IS is based, and resulted in 29 fatalities, and 79 injured.

As the Islamic State has gone on the defensive since its summer offensive in 2014 it has concentrated upon terrorist attacks in the capital. The governorate regularly has the most attacks and casualties as a result. IS has concentrated on the southern section of Baghdad with 74 attacks there in December. It is active in many of the outer towns in that region such as Arab Jabour. The east had 64 incidents, but many of those were the work of criminals, vigilantes, and Hashd elements that carried out a beheading, three stabbings, four robberies, and all of the bodies dumped in the streets. IS also attacked the district with a suicide bomber and 19 IEDs. The north had 44 attacks. IS has bases in southern Salahaddin that it uses to launch attacks into that region of Baghdad. There were also 30 attacks in the west, and 24 in the center. Surprisingly, despite the emphasis upon hitting the capital, there was only one car bomb during the month, which was discovered and defused by the security forces. Before Baghdad was hit almost every week by car bombs. This might just be a break however, while IS reloads because it just ended a VBIED campaign in November.

Incidents In Baghdad Dec 2015

Center: 24 – 1 Car Bomb Dismantled, 1 Robbery,1 Kidnapping, 1 Grenade, 1 Shooting, 3 Sticky Bombs,

16 IEDs

East: 53 – 1 Suicide Bomber, 1 Beheading, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery/Stabbing, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 2

Robberies, 3 Stabbings, 5 Sticky Bombs, 17 Shootings, 19 IEDs

Outer East: 11 – 1 Grenade, 2 Sticky Bombs, 8 IEDs

North: 32 – 1 Stabbing, 2 Robberies, 2 Kidnappings, 5 Shootings, 8 Sticky Bombs, 14 IEDs

Outer North: 12 – 4 Shootings, 10 IEDs

South: 48 – 1 Robbery, 2 Kidnappings, 2 Sticky Bombs, 4 Suicide Bombers Killed, 8 Shootings, 30 IEDs

Outer South: 26 – 1 Mortar, 4 Shootings, 24 IEDs

West: 20 – 1 Mortar, 1 Shooting, 2 Robberies, 3 Sticky Bombs, 4 Kidnappings, 9 IEDs

Outer West: 10 – 1 Mortar, 1 Bicycle Bomb, 1 Motorcycle Bomb, 1 Shooting, 6 IEDs

Unknown: 3 – 1 IED, 2 Kidnappings

Diyala remained rather quite in December. Like Babil, IS is using both governorates as bases to hit the surrounding areas like Baghdad. There was less than one incident per day during the month. There were two car bombs, but those are now rare occasions in the province. What IS has been doing off and on is firing mortars into towns in the center of the province.

There was a slight upsurge in activity in Kirkuk as IS launched a new winter offensive against the Kurds. On December 18 the militants attacked two towns in the Dibis district and one in Hawija. IS then focused upon Kurdish positions in Ninewa.

In Ninewa, IS was looking for a weak point in the Peshmerga defenses, but failed to find one. It started its offensive on December 12 attacking a new town every day with a mix of mortars, gunfire, suicide bombers, and car bombs. It also attacked the camp in the Bashiqa district that housed Turkish trainers after it got into the news when Baghdad demanded that Ankara remove its forces from there. By the end of the month 6 Yazidi fighters, 20 volunteers at the Bashiqa camp, and 121 Peshmerga were dead and 12 Turkish soldiers, 30 volunteers and 43 Peshmerga were wounded.

IS also kept up its steady pace of executions in the areas it controls in Ninewa. That cost the lives of 197 people. A mass grave was discovered with 120 bodies in it, most of which were ISF members with a few civilians as well.

Since the joint forces retook Baiji violence in Salahaddin has dropped off. IS is still active up and down the length of the province, and holds the Shirqat district in the north. There was heavy fighting outside of Samarra and in the Makhoul Mountains in the northeast where the ISF and Hashd are trying to clear out IS pockets. That meant attacks in the province were a mix of harassing operations like drive by shootings, 29, and IEDs, 17, along with a steady flow of suicide, 11, and car bombs, 14. That left 57 dead and 99 injured.

There were 143 car bombs during the month. 26 were successful and 117 were destroyed. While December’s total was comparable to November’s 164 VBIEDs, there was a decided decline in their frequency until Ramadi fell, and IS launched a slew of them in Anbar at the end of the month. All but three of the VBIEDs were used in military operations in Anbar, Ninewa and Salahaddin. Before car bombs were used in both attacks on the joint forces and civilians in terrorist attacks. That pointed to IS’s car bomb campaign ending in November.

 

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	226	540	525
Jan 8-14	187	776	514
Jan 15-21	197	438	528
Jan 22-28	207	573	898 + 150
Jan 29-31	94	329	567
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
Feb 1-7	168	572	689
Feb 8-14	183	462	572
Feb 15-21	177	697	383
Feb 22-28	202	614	722
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
Mar 1-7	196	408	595
Mar 8-14	164	419	655
Mar 15-21	178	1,312	505
Mar 22-28	201	310	406
Mar 29-31	81	212 + 4	218 + 150
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
Apr 1-7	153	276	422
Apr 8-14	165	864	525
Apr 15-21	190	880	714
Apr 22-28	187	564	479
Apr 29-30	56	169	182 + 299
APR	751	2,753	2,621
May 1-7	176	651	448
May 8-14	167	450	542
May 15-21	149	996	390
May 22-28	131	362 + 1,499	344
May 29-31	49	87	164 + 646
MAY	672	2,546 + 1,499	1,888 + 646
Jun 1-7	155	534	475
Jun 8-14	145	648 + 405	389
Jun 15-21	143	367	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122 + 58	189 + 106
JUN	666	2,035 + 405	2,006
Jul 1-7	161	435	719
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	193 + 260	203 + 400
JUL	608	2,158	3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	133	756	640
Aug 15-21	135	345	354
Aug 22-28	136	342	296
Aug 29-31	59	112	169
AUG	617	2,205 + 760	1,757
Sep 1-7	139	285	352
Sep 8-14	144	368	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	39	106 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	573	1,291 + 314	1,647 + 3,003
Oct 1-7	120	337	398
Oct 8-14	144	254	389
Oct 15-21	142	208	279
Oct 22-28	129	216	366
Oct 29-31	49	110	116 + 1
OCT	584	1,124	1,549
Nov 1-7	125	186	316
Nov 8-14	121	265	354
Nov 15-21	140	358	420
Nov 22-28	107	289	261 + 124 + 1,322
Nov 29-30	37	52 + 24	103 + 1
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
Dec 1-7	118	158	249
Dec 8-14	128	246	248
Dec 15-21	140	242	326 + 5,920
Dec 22-28	127	292	346
Dec 29-31	40	203 + 14	83
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920

Security By Province Dec 2015

Province	Dec
Anbar	76 Incidents 235 Killed: 30 Hashd, 36 Sahwa, 45 ISF, 124 Civilians 88 Wounded: 19 Hashd, 24 Civilians, 45 ISF 20 Shootings 2 IEDs 5 Suicide Bombers 12 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Rockets 3 Mortars 25 Suicide Bombers Killed 64 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 24 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	25 Incidents 29 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 ISF, 4 Hashd, 22 Civilians 79 Wounded: 2 Sahwa, 8 Hash, 10 ISF, 59 Civilians 4 Shootings 18 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs
Baghdad	240 Incidents 261 Killed: 6 Hashd, 19 ISF, 236 Civilians 809 Wounded: 5 Hashd, 55 ISF, 749 Civilians 43 Shootings 136 IEDs 26 Sticky Bombs 1 Bicycle Bomb 1 Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Mortars 2 Grenades 4 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Basra	5 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 2 Wounded: 2 Civilians 3 Shootings 2 IEDs
Diyala	23 Incidents 17 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Hashd, 13 Civilians 32 Wounded: 6 Hashd, 7 ISF, 19 Civilians 5 Shootings 10 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 4 Mortars
Karbala	1 Incident 1 Shooting 5 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk	23 Incidents 36 Killed: 1 Hashd, 3 Peshmerga, 32 Civilians 15 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 3 Civilians, 9 Peshmerga 11 Shootings 1 Mortar
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Ninewa	93 Incidents 518 Killed: 6 Yazidi Fighters, 20 Volunteers, 121 Peshmerga, 138 ISF 128 Wounded: 12 Turkish Soldiers, 30 Volunteers, 43 Peshmerga, 43 Civilians 40 Shootings 33 IEDs 6 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 10 Car Bombs 7 Mortars 3 Rockets 22 Suicide Bombers Killed 12 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	65 Incidents 57 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 2 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 14 ISF, 36 Civilians 99 Wounded: 3 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 21 ISF, 66 Civilians 29 Shootings 17 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Mortars 1 Rockets 10 Suicide Bombers Killed 5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 9 Car Bombs Destroyed

Car Bombs In Iraq, December 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Dec 1
Dec 2	Baghdadi & Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Dec 3	Albu Aetha & Hamidiya, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Dec 4	110 Kilo, Albu Faraj & Jeraishi, Anbar – 6 destroyed
Dec 5	35 Kilo, Albu Faraj, Baghdadi, Ramadi, Anbar – 19 destroyed
Dec 6
Dec 7	Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Totals	0 – 36 Destroyed
Dec 8	Ajeel & Alas oil fields, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Dec 9	Albu Faraj & Warrar Bridge, Anbar – 4 destroyed Shirqat, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Dec 10	Albu Diab, Albu Faraj, Albu Taiban, Anbar – 7 destroyed
Dec 11	Baghdadi & Kubaisa, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Dec 12	Nukhaib & Ramadi x3, Anbar Aski, Ninewa Albu Jassim & East Husaiba, Anbar – 3 destroyed	43	39
Dec 13	Kazak, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
Dec 14	Albu Faraj  x5 & Ramadi, Anbar Central Baghdad, Baghdad – 1 destroyed Sinjar, Ninewa – 2 destroyed	35	2
Totals	11 – 26 Destroyed	78	41
Dec 15	Tal al-Mushahid & Palestine Bridge, Anbar – 18 destroyed	2	6
Dec 16	Kaske x2 & Nawaran x9, Ninewa Husaiba & Palestine Bridge, Anbar – 7 destroyed Domuz Military Base & Baira, Ninewa – 4 destroyed	7	6
Dec 17	Hiyakil, Anbar Hiyakil, Anbar – 3 destroyed West of Samarra, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed	3	5
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20	Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Dec 21
Totals	12 – 37 Destroyed	12	17
Dec 22	Albu Diab, Anbar South of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed	31
Dec 23	Khalis x2, Diyala Ramadi, Anbar – 4 destroyed	7	18
Dec 24	Jeraishi & Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Dec 25	160 Kilo, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Dec 26	South of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Dec 27	Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Dec 28
Totals	3 – 11 Destroyed	38	18
Dec 29	Albu Aetha, Anbar – 1 destroyed Domiz, Ninewa – 1 destroyed
Dec 30	Sinjar, Ninewa – 5 destroyed
Dec 31
DEC	26 – 117 Destroyed	128	76

IQSQUARED VIDEO: Making of the Modern Middle East Lawrence of Arabia & Iraq's King Faisal I

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was mentioned in “Assessing Iraq’s Oil Industry” by Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi for the Middle East Forum, and in "ISIS Shows Off A Driverless Carbomb" by Kelsey Atherton for Popular Science. That latter piece was also reposted at the Daily Mail. My interview about the politics behind the peshmerga with Wladimir van Wilgenburg was republished in eKurd, and it also republished my article on the latest public opinion poll on Kurdish politics. 

US INSTITUTE OF PEACE VIDEO: Iraq Can Good Governance Erode Support For Militants?

MARINES' MEMORIAL CLUB VIDEO: William McCants The ISIS Apocalypse

Iraq Ends 2015 With A Surge In Oil Exports But At Lower Prices

Iraq finished 2015 on a good note with new highs in its oil exports. Unfortunately, that came at time when there was a glut in supply in the global petroleum market causing the country’s revenues to decline by almost 50%.

In December Iraq exported an average of 3.215 million barrels a day. That was down from November’s 3.365 million, which was a record post-2003 high. That figure was due to oil being released from storage because of bad weather the month before, which shut down the Basra ports. Otherwise, December might have had the highest average of the year. All of that oil came from the south as the Kurds have not sent any oil to Turkey for Baghdad since September. Iraq ended the year averaging 3.003 million barrels a day. That was a 19.6% increase from 2014’s 2.51 million barrels.

Iraq Oil Report pointed out two major reasons why the country’s exports have increased over the year. One was that new infrastructure came on line increasing capacity in the south. Probably the most import of which was the opening of three single point mooring points, the third of which started operating in January 2015. The second was that Iraq began selling two grades of petroleum, Basra Heavy and Basra Light. That allowed southern fields to expand production that have a heavier grade of crude.

The rise in exports came as prices continued to plummet. December a barrel of Iraq’s crude went for $29.84 the lowest price of the year. A year before the country was averaging $92.39 per barrel. It finished 2015 at less than half that price at $44.81.

For December Iraq earned $2.793 billion. Like prices that was the lowest amount of the year. In 2014 the nation averaged $7.013 billion per month. In 2015 that was down to $4.079 billion.

Like all the major oil producing countries Iraq is trying to deal with the collapse in prices by expanding exports. That is only maintaining the glut in supply. The result is that revenues continue to plummet. That will put huge strains upon Iraq that relies upon oil for almost all of its revenue. Most of the country’s development projects came to a halt in 2015. If prices keep on falling it may not even be able to meet operational costs, which are huge with a bloated public sector and a large number of pensioners.

Iraq Oil Exports & Revenues 2014-15

Month	Avg. Exports	Avg. Price Per Barrel	Earnings (Bil)
2014 Avg.	2.51	$92.39	$7.013
Jan	2.535	$41.45	$3.258
Feb	2.597	$47.43	$3.449
Mar	2.98	$48.24	$4.457
Apr	3.077	$51.70	$4.8
May	3.145	$55.87	$5.447
Jun	3.187	$55.32	$5.289
Jul	3.104	$50.99	$4.908
Aug	3.079	$40.59	$3.874
Sep	3.052	$40.32	$3.692
Oct	2.7	$39.56	$3.320
Nov	3.365	$36.42	$3.67
Dec	3.215	$29.84	$2.793
2015 Avg.	3.003	$44.81	$4.079

2015 Oil Exports From Basra

Jan 2.39 mil/bar/day

Feb 2.29 mil/bar/day

Mar 2.71 mil/bar/day

Apr 2.62 mil/bar/day

May 2.69 mil/bar/day

Jun 3.022 mil/bar/day

Jul 3.064 mil/bar/day

Aug 3.021 mil/bar/day

Sep 3.03 mil/bar/day

Oct 2.7 mil/bar/day

Nov 3.37 mil/bar/day

Dec 3.215 mil/bar/day

2015 Oil Exports By Kurds For Baghdad

Jan 153,000 bar/day

Feb 306,000 bar/day

Mar 268,000 bar/day

Apr 450,000 bar/day

May 451,000 bar/day

Jun 164,733 bar/day

Jul 41,000 bar/day

Aug 50,900 bar/day

Sep 21,500 bar/day

Oct 0.0

Nov 0.0

Dec 0.0

SOURCES

Al-Ansary, Khalid and Ajrash, Kadhim, “Iraq Says It Exported More Than 1 Billion Barrels of Oil in 2015,” Bloomberg, 1/1/16

Lando, Ben, “Iraq ends turbulent oil year on high note,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/5/15

Lando, Ben, Osgood, Patrick, “Record oil exports, but half the money,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/5/16

2015 Public Opinion Poll Iraq Divided Over Future Of Kurdistan & Partisan Divide Amongst Kurds

The third part of the latest Iraq public opinion poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research dealt with Kurdistan. The survey was conducted from August to September 2015 and included 2,000 respondents from all parts of the country. The general feeling was that the relationship between Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was getting worse, and at the same time the region was deeply divided along partisan lines.

Everyone thought that ties between Baghdad and Irbil were getting worse. In Baghdad 67% said they were worse, 17% better. In the south 70% said worse compared to 16% better. The west responded 64% worse, 7% better, and Kurdistan had 95% worse, 2% better. All of those negative responses were up from December 2014 ranging from +44% saying worse in Baghdad to +15% in Kurdistan. The same thing was stated when broken down by ethnicity and sect. 83% of Kurds said relations were worse, 71% for Sunnis, and 68% for Shiites. The relationship between the central and regional governments, which was always difficult took a huge hit during the Maliki administration, which challenged the Kurds over the disputed territories, oil and the budget. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi attempted to repair the relationship with a new budget deal, but that quickly broke down as neither side followed through with its obligations, which explained the poor results in the poll.

Do you think relations between the KRG and the central government are getting better or worse?

Baghdad 67% Worse, 17% Better

South 70% Worse, 16% Better

West 64% Worse, 7% Better

Kurdistan 95% Worse, 2% Better

Kurds 83% Worse, 2% Better

Sunnis 71% Worse, 8% Better

Shiites 68% Worse, 17% Better

Kurds and Arabs had different opinions on Kurdish independence with the latter opposing the idea. When asked should Kurdistan be independent or remain an autonomous region, the majority was for the KRG to stay within Iraq. Overall, 60% chose autonomy over independence, 33%. 82% of Kurds were for independence and 9% for autonomy as opposed to 56% of Sunnis and 78% of Shiites who thought autonomy would be better. Despite the differences between the two the majority of Arabs still thought that Kurdistan should remain part of the country. That was not shared by Kurds who have wanted independence for decades now. That variance in opinions was another source of tension between Baghdad and Irbil as both were pulling in different directions.

Should Kurdistan become an independent country or remain an autonomous region of Iraq?

Overall 28% Independent, 60% Autonomy

Kurds 82% Independent, 9% Autonomy

Sunnis 22% Independent, 56% Autonomy

Shiites 13% Independent, 78% Autonomy

There were varying opinions on the ties with Baghdad between the different ruling parties in Kurdistan. When asked was it important to resolve the budget crisis with Baghdad or develop a new regional constitution 33% chose the former versus 53% for the latter. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) followers, 75%, and Gorran members, 41%, were more interested in the constitution, while pro-Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) respondents picked the budget 46%. The PUK has much better relations with Baghdad than the KDP and therefore thought improving relations with the central government were more important. The KDP wants a new constitution that will ensure President Barzani’s position, while Gorran has been pushing for one that will reform the region’s political system.

Is it more important for the KRG to resolve the budget crisis with Baghdad or develop a new constitution?

Overall 33% Budget, 53% Constitution

KDP 16% Budget, 75% Constitution

PUK 46% Budget, 38% Constitution

Gorran 36% Budget, 41% Constitution

Kurds were very pessimistic about their situation. 49% said the region was going in the wrong direction. That was the highest percentage in the last five years. Back in November 2010 for example only 9% said that things were bad versus 85% who thought it was good. Even by December 2014 most respondents were feeling pessimistic with 56% saying things were going in the right direction. The financial crisis, the war with the Islamic State, the flood of displaced into the region because of the fighting, and the political disputes between the KDP and Gorran have all led to people questioning their situation. The economic problems especially have led to government workers, the largest part of the work force to not be paid for months, development projects have come to a halt, and the regional government is facing a huge debt none of which will be repaired soon as the KRG is oil dependent just like Baghdad meaning it has little means to adjust things when oil prices drop as they have been doing.

Partisan politics determined the views on the regional government and its leaders. KDP voters were overwhelmingly happy with President Barzani, 99%, but that was not shared by PUK voters, 31% approved, or Gorran supporters, only 7%. All groups liked the job the regional parliament was doing with 57% of KDP voters, 79% of PUK ones, and 83% of Gorran supporters approving of the legislature. When it came to the regional government ideas were more split with 89% of KDP members saying it was doing a good job, but only 52% of PUK voters and 43% of Gorran ones. The same opinions were expressed when asked which institution should have the most authority. Overall, 36% said the parliament, 33% the president, 13% the peshmerga and 7% the KRG premier. By party, PUK and Gorran voters backed the parliament, while KDP followers were for the president. The KRG has been dealing with a political crisis over whether President Barzani should be allowed to stay in office even though his term has officially expired. The KDP has responded to the dispute by dismissing all the Gorran cabinet ministers and the speaker of parliament. That is reflected in the responses about the president with hardly any PUK or Gorran voters approving of him. There is a shared opinion that the parliament is trying to do its job, while feelings are more mixed about the regional government. Gorran being kicked out of office may account for the mixed feelings about the KRG overall.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing?

KDP 99% Approve, 1% Disapprove

PUK 31% Approve, 67% Disapprove

Gorran 7% Approve, 87% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Kurdish parliament is doing?

KDP 57% Approve, 39% Disapprove

PUK 79% Approve, 21% Disapprove

Gorran 83% Approve, 17% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the KRG is doing?

KDP 89% Approve, 95 Disapprove

PUK 52% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Gorran 43% Approve, 57% Disapprove

Which institution should have the most authority over decisions?

Overall 36% Parliament, 33% President, 13% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier

KDP 10% Parliament, 82% president, 0% Peshmerga, 3% KRG Premier

PUK 56% Parliament, 9% President, 11% Peshmerga, 12% KRG Premier

Gorran 62% Parliament, 19% President, 10% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier

All of the Kurdish politicians were seen in a poor light. President Barzani had the best rating at 41% favoring him, but 46% saying unfavorable. Speaker of the Kurdish parliament Yusef Mohammed had 38% favorable and 40% unfavorable. Premier Nechirvan Barzani was at 36% favorable, 50% unfavorable. PUK leader Kosrat Rasul had 32% favorable and 49% unfavorable, while Iraq’s President Fuad Masum from the PUK received 31% favorable responses versus 45% unfavorable. Obviously, people were upset as no figure had a positive standing. That represented the partisan politics of the region and the inability of any leader to rise above those divisions and become a figure for all Kurds.

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following politicians?

Pres. M. Barzani 41% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Speaker Mohammed 38% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable

Premier N. Barzani 36% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Rasul 32% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable

Iraq Pres. Masum 31% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

There were partisan divisions over whether President Barzani should have stayed in office. Overall, 39% said he should have been extended versus 51% opposing that idea. Amongst KDP voters 94% supported him getting an extension, while only 17% of PUK supporters and 4% of Gorran ones did. When asked should Barzani stay president until the war with IS is over the responses were largely the same with 45% saying he should stay in office versus 49% against. 99% of KDP voters believed he should remain president versus 16% by PUK voters and 15% of Gorran partisans. It’s obvious that these questions showed how divided the region is over Barzani.

Do you approve/disapprove of President Barzani’s extension?

Overall 39% Approve, 51% Disapprove

KDP 94% Approve, 6% Disapprove

PUK 17% Approve, 74% Disapprove

Gorran 4% Approve, 89% Disapprove

Do you think President Barzani should remain in office until the crisis with IS is over?

Overall 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

KDP 99% Approve, 0% Disapprove

PUK 16% Approve, 77% Disapprove

Gorran 15% Approve, 82% Disapprove

Similarly there were splits over how the president should be elected. 47% said it should be by direct vote of the people, while just as many, 46% said the parliament should do it. 98% of KDP backers were for a direct vote, while 72% of PUK backers and 79% of Gorran supporters were for a parliamentary system. The KDP is for a popular vote because they have more supporters in the KRG than the other parties. In parliament however the two other parties have more power so they support giving the legislature the authority to pick the executive.

Do you want to directly elect the president of have the parliament elect the president?

Overall 47% Direct, 46% Parliament

KDP 98% Direct, 0% Parliament

PUK 19% Direct, 72% Parliament

Gorran 16% Direct, 79% Parliament

When asked about the political parties the PUK was the only one that came out with a good rating. 44% had a favorable opinion of that party versus 34% negative. The KDP had 38% favorable versus 50% unfavorable, while Gorran was at 36% positive, 45% negative. The PUK came out on top because it was supported not only by its own partisans, but a large percent of Gorran and KDP members as well. The KDP and Gorran have the biggest rivalry right now over President Barzani, while the PUK has tried to work with both of them giving it a generally positive image across the board.

Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties?

PUK 44% Favorable, 34% Unfavorable

KDP 38% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Gorran 36% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties by party followers

KDP Voters

KDP 96% Favorable

PUK 42% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable

Gorran 24% Favorable, 55% Unfavorable

PUK Voters

KDP 18% Favorable, 67% Unfavorable

PUK 86% Favorable

Gorran 35% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable

Gorran Voters

KDP 8% Favorable, 83% Unfavorable

PUK 37% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable

Gorran 93% Favorable

On whether people thought the peshmerga was divided opinion was almost evenly split with 46% saying divided versus 50% unified. 77% of KDP supporters picked unified compared to 44% of PUK backers and 39% of Gorran voters. The peshmerga were originally created by the KDP and PUK as their armed wings. The KRG has talked about uniting those forces for decades, but the two parties still dominate them. KDP followers still believed in that united vision, while PUK and Gorran members saw the peshmerga as largely extensions of the parties.

Do you think the Peshmerga are divided or unified?

Overall 46% Divided, 50% Unified

KDP 19% Divided, 77% Unified

PUK 52% Divided, 44% Unified

Gorran 58% Divided, 39% Unified

Finally, almost all respondents were worried that the partisan divide between the parties would lead to future conflicts. 94% were very concerned about that, and that was the same response by all the different voters. The split between the parties is very wide right now with neither the KDP nor Gorran showing any signs of compromise over President Barzani’s term. For the first time in years that’s raising the question of whether the region will return to civil war. That doesn’t seem likely, especially because Gorran has no armed wing, but Kurds are worried that more civil unrest is on the horizon. Already there were protests in the province that started out over wages and services, and quickly came to be dominated by partisan divisions with demonstrators being fired upon. Those types of events are likely to happen again especially with the economic pressures growing making many people unhappy with their situation.

How concerned are you that tensions between the ruling parties will lead to internal conflict in Kurdistan?

Overall 94% Concerned, 5% Unconcerned

KDP 94% Concerned, 5% unconcerned

PUK 94% Concerned, 6% Unconcerned

Gorran 93% Concerned, 7% Unconcerned

SOURCES

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, “Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood, August-September 2015 Survey Findings,” 11/23/15