More On The Iraqi National Movement’s Walkout and Future Participation In Government

Controversy continues to surround what will happen in the Iraqi parliament. On November 11, 2010 it held its second session since the March elections. Osama Nujafi of Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement (INM) was elected speaker, along with his two deputies, Jalal Talabani returned for a second term as Iraq’s president, and Nouri al-Maliki was asked to form a new ruling coalition. During that meeting the National Movement walked out. Their participation in the political process is the major issue facing the future government.

Before parliament met on November 11 the three major lists, Maliki’s State of Law, the Kurdish Coalition, and the National Movement came to an agreement. Maliki and Talabani would return to power, the INM would get the speaker, the Accountability and Justice Commission’s ban on three prominent members of Allawi’s list would be reversed, a new National Council for Strategic Policy headed by Allawi would be created to replace the National Security Council, a committee would be created to review the arrests of prisoners, and power sharing would be codified. After Nujafi and his two deputies were elected, the legislature was then supposed to vote on the INM’s demands to formalize them. Instead, Talabani was elected president for a second term. That led Allawi and 57 of his 91 lawmakers to walk out. The INM then produced a signed document by Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, Allawi, and Maliki that the National Movement’s banned members would be dealt with before Talabani was elected. 

Allawi’s list was understandably upset with the proceedings, and there was some discussion about whether they would show up at the next session of parliament let alone join a new ruling coalition. Many INM member said that Maliki and others had betrayed them. The National Movement even called President Obama asking him to intervene to assure that their demands would be met. They also threatened to go to the United Nations or the Arab League. To add to the problems a member of State of Law said that Allawi’s points were illegal, and they and Kurdish politicians questioned Nujafi’s qualifications to be speaker, and criticized his opening speech. Allawi warned that he was ready to walk away from the talks and go into the opposition as a result.  

Nevertheless, the National Movement said on November 12 that they were still committed to forming a new government. The next day, they and the other blocs returned to parliament. The legislature then voted to implement the power sharing agreement between the three major lists. One lawmaker said that the three banned members of the INM would be cleared within 10 days. It seems that for now, the differences between Allawi and the others are being put aside as the parties continue talks. The next session of the legislature will not be held until November 21 because of a religious holiday. 

What the INM can get out of these prolonged negotiations is an open question as they are obviously the biggest loser. Maliki not only retained the premiership, but has established himself as the leader of most of the Shiite parties. The Kurds became the final kingmakers with Barzani managing and coaxing the major parties to come together, proving that he was a national leader. Allawi on the other hand, was left demanding that only he had the right to form a government since he won the most seats in the election, as Maliki was gaining supporters. Even the National Council for Strategic Policies that he is supposed to head is being interpreted differently. Allawi is demanding that it have veto powers over the prime minister’s decisions, but the body doesn’t even exist yet, and there may be major loopholes in its authority. Finally, Allawi was almost undercut by his own followers, around half of which threatened to leave him if he didn’t sign onto the Barzani agreement. That faction wants to have some say in the ruling coalition rather than being completely shut out. They also have their own individual agendas, which they may not be willing to sacrifice for Allawi. He may turn out to be in the weakest position of all as he failed to become premier, members of his list will get ministerships, while he may be left waiting for the National Council to be formed that might not have as much authority as he hoped. In the end, the 2010 election may not be as much of a game changer as some original believed. Instead it will maintain the status quo as the new government will look and act much like Maliki’s original one from 2006.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Hevidar, “Lawmakers object to new parliament speaker speech,” AK News, 11/12/10

Alsumaria, “National Alliance refuses Al Iraqiya demands,” 11/13/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Maliki, Barazani withdraw signatures on deal with Iraqiya,” 11/13/10
- “MPs enter constitutional hall to resume parliament session,” 11/13/10

Chulov, Martin, “Ayad Allawi puts Iraq power-sharing deal at risk,” Guardian, 11/12/10

Faraj, Salam, “Iraqi MPs salvage power-sharing pact after walk-out,” Agence France Presse, 11/13/10

Al-Jader, May, “SLC describes al-Iraqiya’s demands illegal,” AK News, 11/12/10

Al Jazeera, “Iraq pact heralds new political era,” 11/12/10

Lando, Ben, “Maliki, Talibani in after Iraqiya walk-outs,” Iraq Oil Report, 11/12/10

Nakhelnews, Al-Sharq al-Awsat, “Inauspicious Start for New Agreement Among Iraqi Leaders,” MEMRI Blog, 11/12/10

Al-Shemmari, Yazn, “Iraqiya announces its participation in parliament,” AK News, 11/12/10

Al-Zayyadi, Kholoud, “Lawmakers vote unanimously to implement agreements of Barzani’s initiative,” AK News, 11/13/10

Political Theater At The Iraqi Parliament

Iraqi politics took a dramatic turn on November 11, 2010. Parliament met for only its second time since the March election and elected and nominated the three major posts in the country, speaker, president and prime minister. As always, there was theater, drama, and backstabbing at the event.

The second session of the Iraqi legislature was due to a lawsuit that reached the Iraqi Supreme Court. On October 24, the Court ruled that parliament had to end its open session and meet again. The first time parliament met was back on June 14 when lawmakers gathered for 19-minutes, were sworn into office, and then left. As talks dragged on over forming a new government, independent political groups sued the acting speaker Fouad Massoum for not carrying out his duties, as the Iraqi constitution required the legislature to select a speaker in its first session and then a president within 30 days.

After that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani began bringing together all of Iraq’s major lists to overcome their differences and cut a deal for a new ruling coalition. That resulted in three meetings; the first was on November 8 in Irbil, followed by two more in Baghdad the next two days. At those conferences it became apparent that the Kurdish Coalition was willing to back Maliki for a second term as premier. That support along with the Sadrists’ assured the prime minister he would hold onto his job. The sticking point became convincing Iyad Allawi and his Iraqi National Movement (INM) to join the government. Allawi was adamant that he wanted nothing to do with Maliki however, and even threatened to go into the opposition than join a political process he didn’t believe in. That caused a split within the INM that forced Allawi to change his stance at the negotiating table, otherwise a faction within his list threatened to leave him. At the last minute, Allawi made an about face on joining a new government. The parties then agreed to give the speaker of parliament to the National Movement, allow Talabani and Maliki to keep their positions, and create a new 20-member National Council for Strategic Policies with Allawi as its head that is supposed to deal with all strategic decisions facing the nation. The parliament was also going to reverse the deBaathification bans on four of Allawi’s followers.

The agreement quickly hit a number of snags. First, Osama Nujafi of the National Movement was elected speaker of parliament as per the deal. His two deputies, Sadrist Qusay Abdul Wahab Suhail and Kurdish Alliance member Aref Tayfour, were also sworn in. Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi of the Supreme Council ended up leaving over the choice of those two vice speakers. The legislature was then supposed to end the bans on four members of the INM that were barred from the March election by the Accountability and Justice Commission. Instead, the lawmakers voted not to deal with that issue, and went ahead to elect Jalal Talabani for a second term as Iraq’s president. 57 out of 91 members of Allawi’s list, including Nujafi, walked out in protest over that move. Nujafi actually returned to vote for Talabani. Then the president nominated Maliki for another run at the premiership.

The question now is what will happen next. Parliament is supposed to reconvene tomorrow to formalize the deals. The question is whether Allawi and his followers will show up. 34 of his lawmakers did not walk out, so it’s not clear whether that was a sign of a split within his party or whether the other 57 just left as a bit of political theater. There are definitely bitter feelings within his list. Several members told the press that promises to them had been broken, that they were being marginalized, and that they were forced into compromising even though they were the largest bloc, won the election, and had the right to form a new government. There is even talk of Allawi walking away from politics if he doesn’t feel the new National Council for Strategic Policies has any real power, which would be a vote of no confidence in the new coalition. If all members of the Council unanimously agree upon a policy it is supposed to be carried out, but if there is any dissent then the issue goes to the cabinet. That could give Maliki a way to get around Allawi’s post. All the ministries and top offices within the government are also up for grabs, which means another round of extended talks between Iraq’s leaders. Barzani said that process would only take a month to get seated, but in 2006 it took two to get all the ministers selected for Maliki’s first government. It could take longer this time as the parties are so divided, and the atmosphere has already been poisoned by the failure to follow the agreement made with Allawi over deBaathification. That means the Iraqi soap opera surrounding the parliamentary elections is not over yet.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Hashimi, Issawi to keep their posts,” 11/11/10
- “Nejeifi named parl. Speaker, Suhail and Tayfour deputies,” 11/11/10

Chulov, Martin, “Ayad Allawi ready to quit power-sharing talks and lead Iraq opposition,” Observer, 11/2/10
- “Barak Obama urges Ayad Allawi to join coalition Iraq government,” Guardian, 11/11/10

Fadel, Leila and DeYoung, Karen, “Iraqi leaders reach political deal; Maliki to remain as prime minister,” Washington Post, 11/11/10
- “Sunni group walks out of Iraq parliament,” Washington Post, 11/11/10

Jakes, Lara, “Iraqi court orders parliament back to work,” Associated Press, 10/24/10

Juhl, Bushra, “Iraqi parliament convenes in 1st steps in new govt,” Associated Press, 11/11/10
- “Iraq parliament elects Talabani president,” Associated Press, 11/11/10

Parker, Ned, “Iraq’s new parliament holds its first session as political deadlock continues,” Los Angeles Times, 6/15/10

Al-Rafidyan, “Iraq Leaders Reach Deal On Forming A New Government,” MEMRI Blog, 11/11/10

Visser, Reidar, “Nujayfi, Talabani and Maliki – Plus Lots of Hot Air,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 11/11/10

Al-Ziyadi, Khilood, “Adel Abdul Mahdi walks out of parliamentary meeting,” AK News, 11/11/10

Reports Of A Split In The Iraqi National Movement

There are increasing reports of a division within Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement (INM). One faction led by Iyad Allawi appears to be unwilling to make any compromises with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Another group wants to participate in government, and may break away from Allawi.

Abu Dhabi’s The National talked with a senior member of the Iraqi National Movement who said that there are now two factions within the list. One group led by Allawi refuses to join any government led by Nouri al-Maliki. On November 2, 2010 for example, he told the press that he was considering going into the opposition because he wasn’t willing to join a regime that wasn’t going to work. Since then, other members of the INM have said similar things. Another faction wants to join a ruling coalition as long as they get senior positions. England’s The Independent claimed that 40 of the INM’s 91 parliamentarians are willing to accept the current premier holding onto office. This group may include

leading figures such as Deputy Prime Minister Rafi Issawi, leader of the Iraqi National Dialogue Front Saleh al-Mutlaq, and Osama Nujafi, whose brother runs the al-Hadbaa party in Ninewa. A sign of their willingness to compromise was seen on November 10, when after a meeting in Baghdad Issawi and Mutlaq held a private conference with Maliki.

Different priorities are likely driving this division within the National Movement. Allawi’s main motivation appears to be sour grapes. He has consistently stated that as the winner of the most seats in the March election he has the exclusive right to form a new government. That was usurped early on by Maliki when his State of Law joined with the Sadrist-Supreme Council led Iraqi National Alliance, and formed the Iraqi National Coalition in May who then said they were the largest list in parliament. With the Sadrists, Fadhila, and tacitly the Kurds all now behind Maliki, Allawi has little to no chance of becoming prime minister again. Bitterness at being the victor in March, but coming away empty handed when it comes to the premiership appears to be a driving force for Allawi. He has also mentioned undue Iranian influence and meddling as another issue, seeing Maliki and the Sadrists as leaning towards Tehran too much for his liking. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries may be encouraging Allawi in this positions as they are weary of Iran’s growing power in the region. The other element within the INM may be looking at several factors. One is that they along with others are all concerned about Maliki’s increasingly autocratic behavior in the last two years, and believe that being inside the government rather than out, especially if they receive important positions, could check the prime minister’s actions. If they went into the opposition, it would just be ceding power to Maliki. Another could be purely selfish as joining a new ruling coalition will mean ministries and other government offices, and those equal patronage and jobs to be dealt out to followers. Finally, Issawi, Mutlaq, and Nujafi could unite with Maliki on nationalist issues such as Kirkuk that would prove to be a counter balance to the Kurds later on.

Iraq’s parliament is supposed to meet today November 11. Allawi could be a no show. If Issawi and company appear that could be a sign of the break within the National Movement. Of course, Iraq is bereft in such rumors so until something more concrete is reported these stories should be taken with a grain a salt, and be seen as just the latest story to float around Baghdad.

SOURCES

Chulov, Martin, “Ayad Allawi ready to quit power-sharing talks and lead Iraqi opposition,” Guardian, 11/2/10

Cockburn, Patrick, “Eight months without a government. Can Iraq’s leaders finally do a deal?” Independent, 11/9/10

Fadel, Leila, “Iraqi political leaders scramble ahead of mandated parliament session,” Washington Post, 11/9/10

Latif, Nizar, “Iraqi parties fail to strike deal,” The National, 11/9/10

Roads To Iraq, “The creation of the Sectarian Maliki(te) Republic of Iraq,” 11/10/10

Visser, Reidar, “Contours of a Deal in the Making?” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 11/10/10

Iraq’s Oil Exports Dip Again in October 2010 (REVISED)

Iraq’s Oil Ministry has released its latest oil production and export numbers for October 2010. As has been the pattern since 2003, output continues to fluctuate up and down. Last month Iraq exported an average of 1.89 million barrels a day, and produced 2.35 million barrels. The country produced the same amount of oil in September, but exported an average of 2.00 million barrels that month.

As usual, the majority of Iraq’s foreign sales flow through the southern pipeline that ends at the port of Basra. It accounted for 1.492 million barrels a day in October, 78% of the total. The northern Kirkuk-Turkey line carried an average of 408,000 barrels, 21%. Another 10,000 barrels was trucked to Jordan each day, which amounted to around 1% of exports.

Prices for Iraqi crude have stabilized. After reaching a low of $36 per barrel in January 2009 due to the world recession, it climbed back up to $79.66 in April 2010. Since then prices dropped, but they have now leveled off to around $71 per barrel. In October Iraqi oil sold for $72.

Overall, October’s numbers were in-line with the last twelve months’ averages. Since November 2009 Iraq has averaged 2.36 million barrels a day in production, 100,000 more than October’s output, and 1.89 million barrels in exports, the exact same amount as last month. 


Iraq’s Avg. Yearly Oil Production/Exports 2008-2010
2008: 2.41 mil/bar/day production, 1.84 mil/bar/day exports
2009: 2.40 mil/bar/day production, 1.90 mil/bar/day exports
2010: 2.36 mil/bar/day production, 1.88 mil/bar/day exports

At the current pace, 2010 will be around the same output as the previous two years. In 2008 Iraq averaged 2.41 million barrels a day in production, and 1.84 million barrels in exports. That dropped slightly to 2.40 million in production, while exports increased to 1.90 million barrels in the next year. So far, 2010 is averaging 2.36 million barrels a day in output, and 1.88 million barrels a day in exports. That represents the fact that Iraq’s oil industry is at capacity. The country’s aging infrastructure cannot handle any more petroleum, and weather, bottlenecks, attacks upon pipelines account for the monthly changes. Until projects to rehabilitate and expand Iraq’s pipelines, storage facilities, etc. are completed, there will be no real improvement in output.

SOURCES

Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “Iraq Status Report,” U.S. Department of State, 11/3/10

Reuters, “Iraq’s Oil Exports Decline in October,” Iraq Business News, 11/2/10

Monday’s Meeting In Irbil Leads To No Breakthrough On Forming New Iraqi Government

 Maliki, Talabani, Allawi (l to r) at the Irbil meeting

Source: Agence France Presse

On Monday November 8, 2010 all of Iraq’s major political leaders including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqi National Movement head Iyad Allawi, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani, and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani met face to face in the Kurdish capital of Irbil. The day before, government spokesman Ali Dabbagh, who is a member of State of Law, claimed that Maliki and Allawi would formally announce a power sharing agreement at the conference. Instead, the party heads met for 90-minutes, talked with the press, and then departed. All the same people are due to talk again on November 9 in Baghdad.

Despite the failure to come to an agreement, Iraqi politics has progressed. When Moqtada al-Sadr decided to back Maliki at the beginning of October, it basically assured his return to the premiership. Since then the Kurds and the Fadhila Party have openly and tacitly come out for Maliki as well. The main sticking point now is getting Allawi’s list to join a national unity government. KRG President Barzani has been pushing for a round table meeting of 8-12 representatives of the major lists to resolve their outstanding issues, and they have come up with three draft papers on a national security council, a national unity government, and the control and reorganization of the security forces. 

The main sticking point now appears to be the division of the major posts. State of Law and the Kurds have been offering Maliki as prime minister, Talabani as president and Allawi or someone from his list as speaker of parliament. Members of the National Movement however have brought up Allawi as president as an alternative. This is something supported by the U.S. and Turkey. Some in the National Movement believe that the presidency is a more prominent position, and that it can be a counter to Maliki as premier. That would only be true if the constitution is changed and the president is given expanded powers, because under the new government the Presidential Council will cease to exist and the presidency will revert to a largely ceremonial position. An additional problem is that the Kurds have said they will not give up the president’s office, and hence the deadlock continues.

SOURCES

 Arraf, Jane, "U.S. calls for Iraqi president to step down, amid more bomb attacks," Christian Science Monitor, 11/8/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Blocs’ leaders will not form government in two meetings – Allawi,” 11/8/10
- “”Several suspended issues were not settled” VP,” 11/8/10

Aziz, Raber, “Iraqi leaders break “psychological barrier” to settle disputes,” AK News, 11/8/10
- “Prominent Iraqiya leader not optimistic about Erbil meeting,” AK News, 11/8/10

Hanna, Michael, “The Race for the Iraqi Presidency,” Middle East Channel, Foreign Policy, 3/11/10

Al-Hayat, Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Aljewar, Alcauther, “The Political Scene in Iraq Remains Confusing – A Status Report,” MEMRI Blog, 11/8/10

Al-Jaaf, Wisam, “Al-Iraqiya renews its claim on the Presidency,” AK News, 11/6/10

Salman, Raheem and Parker, Ned, “Top Iraqi political leaders discuss forming new government,” Los Angeles Times, 11/8/10

Despite Recent Attacks Life Goes On In Iraq

Despite the recent wave of bombings that hit Baghdad in the beginning of November 2010, life in the capital and the rest of Iraq continues. The New York Times recently published a new slideshow of Baghdad at night that go along with an earlier series of photos. They show Iraqis going about their business and enjoying themselves, which stands in stark contrast to the image many in the world have of Iraq since the press tends to solely focus upon the violence and political stalemate in the country. Below are a few of the pictures. Click here to see the slideshow on Baghdad nightlife, and here for businesses in the capital.

A man getting fitted for pants in Baghdad's Karrada district

Source: New York Times

 

Friends socializing in Karrada district, Baghdad

Source: New York Times

SOURCES

Healy, Jack, "Savoring Baghdad, Where Each Night Is A Battle," New York Times, 11/6/10

New York Times, "In Iraq, Business Starts To Bounce Back," 10/17/10
- "Nightlife Still Lively in Baghdad Neighborhood," 11/6/10

Parker, Ned and Zeki, Jaber, "At least 113 killed in series of Baghdad attacks," Los Angeles Times, 11/3/10

Salahaddin’s Governor Dismissed For Baathist Ties

Salahaddin Province
Source: Wikimedia

On October 26, 2010 Salahaddin’s governor Khaled Hassan Mahdi Darraji was dismissed. Several months ago, the Accountability and Justice Commission, which replaced the DeBaathification Commission, received a letter accusing Darraji of being a Baathist. The Commission found evidence against Darraji, leading the provincial council to vote twenty to six to suspend him, with two members being absent.

One provincial council member said the letter might have been revenge by supporters of the former governor Matshar Hussein Alawi. The provincial council kicked him out of office in September 2009. Alawi refused to step down, and the council elected a new governor Ahmed Abdul Jabbar Abdul Karim in his place. The controversy dragged on for months, which eventually led Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to become involved. In January 2010 he demanded that Alawi leave office, and sent troops to occupy the provincial council building until he did. That started a new problem as Maliki insisted that he name the new governor, not the council. As a show of power, Iraqi security forces would not allow anyone into the council building until a deal was made. Finally, in March the council and Maliki compromised and named a new governor, Khaled Hassan Mahdi Darraji. The deal was finalized when Maliki withdrew the security forces on April 1.

Now Darraji has been removed himself. The provincial council said he had been suspended for two months, and had one month to appeal his case to the Accountability and Justice Commission. There’s been no word on who will serve in his place.

The Iraqi Accordance Front led by the Iraqi Islamic Party, Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List, and Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Iraq National Project run Salahaddin. Together they hold 13 of the province’s 28 provincial seats.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq governor suspended for alleged Baath party affiliation,” 10/27/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Salah al-Din governor sacked,” 10/26/10