Early returns for this year’s truncated provincial elections
have been reported, and they show that the country’s political divisions
continue. With 71%-96% of the ballots counted in the twelve provinces that cast
them, most of Iraq’s major parties maintained their positions. At the same
time, more small and independent entities have finished well. They will likely
be coopted by the larger ones however. Iraq’s last local elections were held in
2009, and were all about issues and the performance of politicians. 2013’s
balloting was more about getting ready for next year’s parliamentary vote.
Election poster for PM Maliki who failed to win the
overwhelming victory he was hoping for in the 2013 provincial vote (Niqash)
The 2013 local elections did not fulfill Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki’s hopes for an overwhelming showing. Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki’s State of Law came out in front with eight first place finishes in the twelve provinces that voted. That was a slight loss for the list as it
won in nine of those twelve governorates in 2009, and was a larger coalition
this year than previously. Not only that but Maliki’s own Dawa Party allegedly
fared poorly compared to its allies within the list. Al-Mada for example,
reported that in Babil and Karbala former premier Ibrahim Jaffari’s National
Reform Party and the Fadhila Party respectively fared better than Dawa. Before
the vote, Maliki was talking about winning a majority, which would lead to a
majority government at the national level in 2014. State of Law did well,
but not that well to fulfill the prime minister’s plans. The main reason for the
list’s slight drop off from 2009 was probably the fact that it had been in
power for the last four years, and had largely failed to deliver on its
promises of better services and governance. It therefore suffered a slight
backlash against being the incumbent.
State of Law’s two main competitors in southern Iraq and
Baghdad, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sadrists did better
than in 2009. The ISCI’s Citizen’s Alliance had eight 2nd place and
two 3rd place finishes, compared to seven 2nd place
finishes in the last vote. The Sadrists won in Maysan, came in second in
Karbala, along with five 3rd place and three fourth places finishes.
That was better than in 2009, when the best it could do was being the runner-up
in Dhi Qar, plus five 3rd place and one fourth place finishes. They
were the likely beneficiaries of those that were unhappy with State of Law. The
ISCI has been desperately trying to reform its image after the death of its
patriarch Abdul Aziz al-Hakim in 2009, and its poor showing in that year’s
balloting when it lost control of most of the south and Baghdad. Not only that,
but its militia the Badr Organization ran as part of State of Law this year.
That showed that the Supreme Council had an even better showing than many
expected it to have. Likewise, Moqtada al-Sadr has been trying to transform
himself from a militia leader to a politician. He’s mainly been doing that by
criticizing Maliki, while at the same time, being his main supporter. That has
given the Sadrists the most ministries in the government, which open up huge
patronage networks to maintain and expand his following. Like the other
parties, both the ISCI and Sadrists will hope to build upon this showing for
the 2014 parliamentary voting.
Next, were Iraq’s Sunni parties, who were divided into two
main groups. One was Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Arab Iraqiya. Before the
election, he reconciled with the prime minister, who was looking towards Mutlaq to be his future Sunni partner in a new national government. Maliki might
have to look elsewhere as his deputy did horribly, only being able to finish
first in Diyala as part of a coalition with Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi
called Iraqiyat Diyala. In 2009, Mutlaq finished second in Diyala, third in
Salahaddin, and fifth in Baghdad, showing a tremendous drop off. Speaker Nujafi
did much better with a second place finish in Baghdad and Salahaddin, along
with the shared victory in Diyala. In 2009, Nujafi was part of his brother’s
al-Hadbaa party that only ran in Ninewa. This year, he ran his own list that
included al-Hadbaa, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha’s Awakening Movement, Rafi Issawi’s
National Future Gathering, the Iraqi Islamic Party, and the Iraqi Turkmen
Front. He basically replaced the Iraqi Accordance Front as being the main Sunni
party in Iraq. Mutlaq on the other hand, has lost much of his constituency.
The last two major parties were Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya and
the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence list. Allawi did as badly as Mutlaq. In
the last local elections, Iraqiya finished in the top five in seven out of
twelve provinces, which included 2nd place in Salahaddin and 3rd
in Qadisiyah. This year, the best it could do was 3rd in Diyala, 4th
in Salahaddin in four out of five top five finishes. The Kurdish parties
finished third in Diyala in both rounds of balloting. Allawi was the only
politician to run across the country, and emphasized a secular agenda. His lack
of leadership and constant trips out of the country could account for why he
did so badly. The Kurds on the other hand, simply maintained their position as
there was little to change their standing amongst their constituency.
Top 5 Finishers 2009
vs 2013 Iraqi Provincial Elections
Babil
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Sadrists
|
Iraq Independent
Professionals Group
|
4th
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Party
|
Sadrists
|
5th
|
Civil Society List
|
Iraqi Communist Party
|
Baghdad
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi
Accordance Front
|
Osama Nujafi’s National
Assembly of Iraqis
|
3rd
|
Sadrists
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
4th
|
Iraqiya
|
Sadrists
|
5th
|
Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraqi
National Project
|
Iraqiya
|
Basra
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Gathering of Justice &
Unity
|
Sadrists
|
4th
|
Sadrists
|
Basra Independent Coalition
|
5th
|
Iraqiya
|
Justice and Unity
|
Dhi Qar
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Sadrists
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Sadrists
|
4th
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Trend
|
Solidarity in Iraq
|
5th
|
Fadhila Party
|
National Group
|
Diyala
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi
Accordance Front
|
Osama Nujafi & Saleh
Mutlaq’s Iraqiyat Diyala
|
2nd
|
Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraqi
National Project
|
State of Law, ISCI, Sadr’s
Diyala National Coalition
|
3rd
|
Kurdish Alliance
|
Iraqiya
|
4th
|
Iraqiya
|
Kurdish Alliance
|
5th
|
State of Law
|
We Are Decisive
|
Karbala
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Hope of Rafidain
|
Sadrists
|
3rd
|
State of Law
|
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi
|
4th
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
5th
|
Sadrists
|
Hope of Rafidain
|
Maysan
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
Sadrists
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
State of Law
|
3rd
|
Sadrists
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
4th
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Party
|
Integrity and Efficiency
|
5th
|
National Partnership
Gathering
|
Muthanna
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
People’s List
|
Sadrists
|
3rd
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Party
|
Iraq Independent
Professionals Group
|
5th
|
Sadrists
|
Muthanna Community
|
Najaf
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
Loyalty to Najaf
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Sadrists
|
State of Law
|
4th
|
Loyalty to Najaf
|
Sadrists
|
5th
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Party
|
Just State
|
Qadisiyah
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Iraqiya
|
Sadrists
|
4th
|
Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Party
|
Alliance of Independent
People of Diwaniya
|
5th
|
Sadrists
|
White Iraqiya
|
Salahaddin
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi
Accordance Front
|
Alliance of Iraqi People
|
2nd
|
Iraqiya
|
Osama Nujafi’s National
Assembly of Iraqis
|
3rd
|
Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraq
National Project
|
Dignity Alliance of Iraq
|
4th
|
National Project of Iraq
|
Iraqiya
|
5th
|
Group of Intellectuals and
Scientists
|
State of Law, ISCI, Sadr’s
National Coalition in Salahaddin
|
Wasit
|
2009
|
2013
|
1st
|
State of Law
|
State of Law
|
2nd
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq
|
3rd
|
Sadrists
|
Sadrists
|
4th
|
Iraqiya
|
Fidelity
|
5th
|
Iraqi Constitutional Party
|
State of Social Justice
|
Comparison of Winners
in 12 Of Iraq’s Provinces 2009-2013
List
|
2009
|
2013
|
PM Maliki’s State of Law
|
1st Place: Babil, Baghdad,
Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (9 Total)
|
1st Place: Babil, Baghdad,
Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Wasit (8 Total)
|
-
|
2nd Place:
Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Maysan (2 Total)
|
|
3rd Place:
Karbala (1 Total)
|
3rd Place: Najaf
(1 Total)
|
|
-
|
-
|
|
5th Place:
Diyala (1 Total)
|
5th Place:
Salahaddin – National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
|
|
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
|
2nd Place:
Babil, Basra, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (7 Total)
|
2nd Place Babil, Basra, Dhi
Qar, Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (8
Total)
|
-
|
3rd Place: Baghdad, Maysan
(2 Total)
|
|
4th Place: Karbala (1
Total)
|
4th Place: Karbala (1
Total)
|
|
-
|
5th Place:
Salahaddin – National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
|
|
Sadrists
|
-
|
1st Place:
Maysan (1 Total)
|
2nd Place: Dhi Qar (1
Total)
|
2nd Place:
Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Karbala (2 Total)
|
|
3rd Place: Babil, Baghdad,
Maysan Najaf ,Wasit (5 Total)
|
3rd Place: Basra, Dhi Qar,
Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Wasit (5 Total)
|
|
4th Place: Basra (1 Total)
|
4th Place:
Babil, Baghdad, Najaf (3 Total)
|
|
5th Place: Karbala,
Muthanna, Qadisiyah (3 Total)
|
5th Place: Salahaddin –
National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
|
|
Deputy PM Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Project/Arab
Iraqiya
|
-
|
1st Place:
Diyala – Iraqiyat Diyala (1 Total)
|
2nd Place: Diyala (1 Total)
|
-
|
|
3rd Place: Salahaddin (1
Total)
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
|
5th Place: Baghdad (1
Total)
|
-
|
|
Speaker Nujafi’s National Assembly of Iraqis
|
NA
|
1st Place:
Diyala – Iraqiyat Diyala (1 Total)
|
NA
|
2nd Place:
Baghdad, Salahaddin (2 Total)
|
|
Iraqiya
|
2nd Place:
Salahaddin (1 Total)
|
-
|
3rd Place:
Qadisiyah (1 Total)
|
3rd Place:
Diyala (1 Total)
|
|
4th Place: Baghdad, Diyala,
Wasit (3 Total)
|
4th Place:
Salahaddin (1 Total)
|
|
5th Place: Basra (1 Total)
|
5th Place:
Baghdad (1 Total)
|
|
Kurds
|
3rd Place:
Diyala (1 Total)
|
3rd Place:
Diyala (1 Total)
|
Independents
|
Civil Society List – 5th
Place: Babil
|
Alliance of Independent
People of Diwaniya – 4th Place: Qadisiyah
|
Gathering of Justice &
Unity – 3rd Place: Basra
|
Alliance of Iraqi People –
1st Place: Salahaddin
|
|
Group of Intellectuals and
Scientists – 5th Place: Salahaddin
|
Basra Independent Coalition
– 4th Place: Basra
|
|
Hope of Rafidain – 2nd
Place: Karbala
|
Dignity Alliance of Iraq –
3rd Place: Salahaddin
|
|
Iraqi Constitutional Party
– 5th Place: Wasit
|
Fidelity – 4th
Place: Wasit
|
|
Loyalty to Najaf – 4th
Place: Najaf
|
Hope of Rafidain – 5th
Place: Karbala
|
|
National Project of Iraq –
4th Place: Salahaddin
|
Integrity and Efficiency –
4th Place: Maysan
|
|
People’s List – 3rd
Place: Muthanna
|
Iraq Independent
Professionals Group – 3rd Place: Babil, Muthanna
|
|
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi –
1st Place: Karbala
|
Iraqi Communist Party - 5th
Place: Babil
|
|
Just State – 5th
Place: Najaf
|
||
Justice and Unity - 5th
Place: Basra
|
||
Loyalty to Najaf – 1st
Place: Najaf
|
||
Muthanna Community – 5th
Place: Muthanna
|
||
National Group - 5th
Place: Dhi Qar
|
||
National Partnership
Gathering – 5th Place: Maysan
|
||
Solidarity in Iraq - 4th
Place: Dhi Qar
|
||
State of Social Justice – 5th
Place: Wasit
|
||
We Are Decisive - 5th
Place: Diyala
|
||
White Iraqiya – 5th
Place: Qadisiyah
|
||
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi –
3rd Place: Karbala
|
One of the main changes between 2009 and 2013 was the number
of entities running, and how they did. In 2009, 427 individuals and parties ran
compared to 265 in 2013. That showed a large amount of consolidation amongst
Iraq’s political class. At the same time, more independent parties finished in
the top five this year than in 2009. In that year, nine parties finished at the
top compared to twenty in 2013. In 2009, some of the best showings were by
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi who won in Karbala, and the Hope of Rafidain that got
second place in that province. This year, Salahaddin Governor Ahmed Abdullah’s
Alliance of Iraqi People won in that province, while Loyalty to Najaf won
there, and Habboubi came in third in Karbala. These were all examples of
smaller parties stressing local issues. On the other hand, many are going to be
co-opted by the larger ones when new ruling coalitions are put together in each
governorate. That shows at the provincial level there are some parties that are
attempting to address the problems of the districts and cities. However, they
do not have the power yet to govern on their own, and have to fall in line
behind the larger national lists.
Iraq’s 2013 provincial elections simply reflected the
current state of Iraq’s divided politics. Maliki maintained the dominant
position as he runs both the central government, and many of the local
governorates in southern and central Iraq. That gives him plenty of
opportunities to dish out patronage and favors to his followers. At the same
time, there are other parties like the Supreme Council and Sadrists that are
competing for the same group of voters, and they have been able to make slight
advances. Speaker Nujafi and Deputy PM Mutlaq are competing for the Sunni vote,
but only the former still has a large base. The Speaker, along with the Kurdish
parties and Iyad Allawi are the main critics of Prime Minister Maliki, but they
have not been able to make any large gains with the electorate, and Allawi has
actually lost much of his constituency. This all showed that the balloting
simply maintained the current status quo with Maliki relying upon the prime
minister at the top, but his rivals and opponents unable to unseat him. Unless
something drastic happens, this will be how the next parliamentary balloting
takes place, meaning there will be no resolution to Iraq’s current political
deadlock.
SOURCES
Ali, Ahmed, “Iraq’s Provincial
Elections and their National Implications,” Institute for the Study of War,
4/19/13
Al-Ali, Daoud, “Iraqi PM
al-maliki: ‘I will win a third term,’” Niqash, 4/4/13
Center for Middle Eastern
Strategic Studies, “2013 Iraqi Local Election Results,” 4/26/13
Al-Mada, “Prime Minister loses
seats in “their own home” .. and the sounds of his coalition in Kerbala brought
him Virtue,” 4/24/13
