Early Election Results For Iraq’s 2013 Provincial Balloting

Early returns for this year’s truncated provincial elections have been reported, and they show that the country’s political divisions continue. With 71%-96% of the ballots counted in the twelve provinces that cast them, most of Iraq’s major parties maintained their positions. At the same time, more small and independent entities have finished well. They will likely be coopted by the larger ones however. Iraq’s last local elections were held in 2009, and were all about issues and the performance of politicians. 2013’s balloting was more about getting ready for next year’s parliamentary vote.

Election poster for PM Maliki who failed to win the overwhelming victory he was hoping for in the 2013 provincial vote (Niqash)

The 2013 local elections did not fulfill Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s hopes for an overwhelming showing. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law came out in front with eight first place finishes in the twelve provinces that voted. That was a slight loss for the list as it won in nine of those twelve governorates in 2009, and was a larger coalition this year than previously. Not only that but Maliki’s own Dawa Party allegedly fared poorly compared to its allies within the list. Al-Mada for example, reported that in Babil and Karbala former premier Ibrahim Jaffari’s National Reform Party and the Fadhila Party respectively fared better than Dawa. Before the vote, Maliki was talking about winning a majority, which would lead to a majority government at the national level in 2014. State of Law did well, but not that well to fulfill the prime minister’s plans. The main reason for the list’s slight drop off from 2009 was probably the fact that it had been in power for the last four years, and had largely failed to deliver on its promises of better services and governance. It therefore suffered a slight backlash against being the incumbent.

State of Law’s two main competitors in southern Iraq and Baghdad, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sadrists did better than in 2009. The ISCI’s Citizen’s Alliance had eight 2^nd place and two 3^rd place finishes, compared to seven 2^nd place finishes in the last vote. The Sadrists won in Maysan, came in second in Karbala, along with five 3^rd place and three fourth places finishes. That was better than in 2009, when the best it could do was being the runner-up in Dhi Qar, plus five 3^rd place and one fourth place finishes. They were the likely beneficiaries of those that were unhappy with State of Law. The ISCI has been desperately trying to reform its image after the death of its patriarch Abdul Aziz al-Hakim in 2009, and its poor showing in that year’s balloting when it lost control of most of the south and Baghdad. Not only that, but its militia the Badr Organization ran as part of State of Law this year. That showed that the Supreme Council had an even better showing than many expected it to have. Likewise, Moqtada al-Sadr has been trying to transform himself from a militia leader to a politician. He’s mainly been doing that by criticizing Maliki, while at the same time, being his main supporter. That has given the Sadrists the most ministries in the government, which open up huge patronage networks to maintain and expand his following. Like the other parties, both the ISCI and Sadrists will hope to build upon this showing for the 2014 parliamentary voting.

Next, were Iraq’s Sunni parties, who were divided into two main groups. One was Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Arab Iraqiya. Before the election, he reconciled with the prime minister, who was looking towards Mutlaq to be his future Sunni partner in a new national government. Maliki might have to look elsewhere as his deputy did horribly, only being able to finish first in Diyala as part of a coalition with Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi called Iraqiyat Diyala. In 2009, Mutlaq finished second in Diyala, third in Salahaddin, and fifth in Baghdad, showing a tremendous drop off. Speaker Nujafi did much better with a second place finish in Baghdad and Salahaddin, along with the shared victory in Diyala. In 2009, Nujafi was part of his brother’s al-Hadbaa party that only ran in Ninewa. This year, he ran his own list that included al-Hadbaa, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha’s Awakening Movement, Rafi Issawi’s National Future Gathering, the Iraqi Islamic Party, and the Iraqi Turkmen Front. He basically replaced the Iraqi Accordance Front as being the main Sunni party in Iraq. Mutlaq on the other hand, has lost much of his constituency.

The last two major parties were Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya and the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence list. Allawi did as badly as Mutlaq. In the last local elections, Iraqiya finished in the top five in seven out of twelve provinces, which included 2^nd place in Salahaddin and 3^rd in Qadisiyah. This year, the best it could do was 3^rd in Diyala, 4^th in Salahaddin in four out of five top five finishes. The Kurdish parties finished third in Diyala in both rounds of balloting. Allawi was the only politician to run across the country, and emphasized a secular agenda. His lack of leadership and constant trips out of the country could account for why he did so badly. The Kurds on the other hand, simply maintained their position as there was little to change their standing amongst their constituency.

Top 5 Finishers 2009 vs 2013 Iraqi Provincial Elections

Babil	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Sadrists	Iraq Independent Professionals Group
4th	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Party	Sadrists
5th	Civil Society List	Iraqi Communist Party

Baghdad	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi Accordance Front	Osama Nujafi’s National Assembly of Iraqis
3rd	Sadrists	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
4th	Iraqiya	Sadrists
5th	Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Project	Iraqiya

Basra	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Gathering of Justice & Unity	Sadrists
4th	Sadrists	Basra Independent Coalition
5th	Iraqiya	Justice and Unity

Dhi Qar	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Sadrists	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Sadrists
4th	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Trend	Solidarity in Iraq
5th	Fadhila Party	National Group

Diyala	2009	2013
1st	Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi Accordance Front	Osama Nujafi & Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraqiyat Diyala
2nd	Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Project	State of Law, ISCI, Sadr’s Diyala National Coalition
3rd	Kurdish Alliance	Iraqiya
4th	Iraqiya	Kurdish Alliance
5th	State of Law	We Are Decisive

Karbala	2009	2013
1st	Youssef Majid al-Habboubi	State of Law
2nd	Hope of Rafidain	Sadrists
3rd	State of Law	Youssef Majid al-Habboubi
4th	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
5th	Sadrists	Hope of Rafidain

Maysan	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	Sadrists
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	State of Law
3rd	Sadrists	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
4th	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Party	Integrity and Efficiency
5th		National Partnership Gathering

Muthanna	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	People’s List	Sadrists
3rd	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Party	Iraq Independent Professionals Group
5th	Sadrists	Muthanna Community

Najaf	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	Loyalty to Najaf
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Sadrists	State of Law
4th	Loyalty to Najaf	Sadrists
5th	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Party	Just State

Qadisiyah	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Iraqiya	Sadrists
4th	Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Party	Alliance of Independent People of Diwaniya
5th	Sadrists	White Iraqiya

Salahaddin	2009	2013
1st	Tariq Hashemi’s Iraqi Accordance Front	Alliance of Iraqi People
2nd	Iraqiya	Osama Nujafi’s National Assembly of Iraqis
3rd	Saleh Mutlaq’s Iraq National Project	Dignity Alliance of Iraq
4th	National Project of Iraq	Iraqiya
5th	Group of Intellectuals and Scientists	State of Law, ISCI, Sadr’s National Coalition in Salahaddin

Wasit	2009	2013
1st	State of Law	State of Law
2nd	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
3rd	Sadrists	Sadrists
4th	Iraqiya	Fidelity
5th	Iraqi Constitutional Party	State of Social Justice

Comparison of Winners in 12 Of Iraq’s Provinces 2009-2013

List	2009	2013
PM Maliki’s State of Law	1st Place: Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (9 Total)	1st Place: Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Wasit (8 Total)
	-	2nd Place: Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Maysan (2 Total)
	3rd Place: Karbala (1 Total)	3rd Place: Najaf (1 Total)
	-	-
	5th Place: Diyala (1 Total)	5th Place: Salahaddin – National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq	2nd Place: Babil, Basra, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (7 Total)	2nd Place Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit (8 Total)
	-	3rd Place: Baghdad, Maysan (2 Total)
	4th Place: Karbala (1 Total)	4th Place: Karbala (1 Total)
	-	5th Place: Salahaddin – National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
Sadrists	-	1st Place: Maysan (1 Total)
	2nd Place: Dhi Qar (1 Total)	2nd Place: Diyala – Diyala National Coalition, Karbala (2 Total)
	3rd Place: Babil, Baghdad, Maysan Najaf ,Wasit (5 Total)	3rd Place: Basra, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Qadisiyah, Wasit (5 Total)
	4th Place: Basra (1 Total)	4th Place: Babil, Baghdad, Najaf (3 Total)
	5th Place: Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiyah (3 Total)	5th Place: Salahaddin – National Coalition in Salahaddin (1 Total)
Deputy PM Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Project/Arab Iraqiya	-	1st Place: Diyala – Iraqiyat Diyala (1 Total)
	2nd Place: Diyala (1 Total)	-
	3rd Place: Salahaddin (1 Total)	-
	-	-
	5th Place: Baghdad (1 Total)	-
Speaker Nujafi’s National Assembly of Iraqis	NA	1st Place: Diyala – Iraqiyat Diyala (1 Total)
	NA	2nd Place: Baghdad, Salahaddin (2 Total)
Iraqiya	2nd Place: Salahaddin (1 Total)	-
	3rd Place: Qadisiyah (1 Total)	3rd Place: Diyala (1 Total)
	4th Place: Baghdad, Diyala, Wasit (3 Total)	4th Place: Salahaddin (1 Total)
	5th Place: Basra (1 Total)	5th Place: Baghdad (1 Total)
Kurds	3rd Place: Diyala (1 Total)	3rd Place: Diyala (1 Total)
Independents	Civil Society List – 5th Place: Babil	Alliance of Independent People of Diwaniya – 4th Place: Qadisiyah
	Gathering of Justice & Unity – 3rd Place: Basra	Alliance of Iraqi People – 1st Place: Salahaddin
	Group of Intellectuals and Scientists – 5th Place: Salahaddin	Basra Independent Coalition – 4th Place: Basra
	Hope of Rafidain – 2nd Place: Karbala	Dignity Alliance of Iraq – 3rd Place: Salahaddin
	Iraqi Constitutional Party – 5th Place: Wasit	Fidelity – 4th Place: Wasit
	Loyalty to Najaf – 4th Place: Najaf	Hope of Rafidain – 5th Place: Karbala
	National Project of Iraq – 4th Place: Salahaddin	Integrity and Efficiency – 4th Place: Maysan
	People’s List – 3rd Place: Muthanna	Iraq Independent Professionals Group – 3rd Place: Babil, Muthanna
	Youssef Majid al-Habboubi – 1st Place: Karbala	Iraqi Communist Party - 5th Place: Babil
		Just State – 5th Place: Najaf
		Justice and Unity - 5th Place: Basra
		Loyalty to Najaf – 1st Place: Najaf
		Muthanna Community – 5th Place: Muthanna
		National Group - 5th Place: Dhi Qar
		National Partnership Gathering – 5th Place: Maysan
		Solidarity in Iraq - 4th Place: Dhi Qar
		State of Social Justice – 5th Place: Wasit
		We Are Decisive - 5th Place: Diyala
		White Iraqiya – 5th Place: Qadisiyah
		Youssef Majid al-Habboubi – 3rd Place: Karbala

One of the main changes between 2009 and 2013 was the number of entities running, and how they did. In 2009, 427 individuals and parties ran compared to 265 in 2013. That showed a large amount of consolidation amongst Iraq’s political class. At the same time, more independent parties finished in the top five this year than in 2009. In that year, nine parties finished at the top compared to twenty in 2013. In 2009, some of the best showings were by Youssef Majid al-Habboubi who won in Karbala, and the Hope of Rafidain that got second place in that province. This year, Salahaddin Governor Ahmed Abdullah’s Alliance of Iraqi People won in that province, while Loyalty to Najaf won there, and Habboubi came in third in Karbala. These were all examples of smaller parties stressing local issues. On the other hand, many are going to be co-opted by the larger ones when new ruling coalitions are put together in each governorate. That shows at the provincial level there are some parties that are attempting to address the problems of the districts and cities. However, they do not have the power yet to govern on their own, and have to fall in line behind the larger national lists.

Iraq’s 2013 provincial elections simply reflected the current state of Iraq’s divided politics. Maliki maintained the dominant position as he runs both the central government, and many of the local governorates in southern and central Iraq. That gives him plenty of opportunities to dish out patronage and favors to his followers. At the same time, there are other parties like the Supreme Council and Sadrists that are competing for the same group of voters, and they have been able to make slight advances. Speaker Nujafi and Deputy PM Mutlaq are competing for the Sunni vote, but only the former still has a large base. The Speaker, along with the Kurdish parties and Iyad Allawi are the main critics of Prime Minister Maliki, but they have not been able to make any large gains with the electorate, and Allawi has actually lost much of his constituency. This all showed that the balloting simply maintained the current status quo with Maliki relying upon the prime minister at the top, but his rivals and opponents unable to unseat him. Unless something drastic happens, this will be how the next parliamentary balloting takes place, meaning there will be no resolution to Iraq’s current political deadlock.

SOURCES

Ali, Ahmed, “Iraq’s Provincial Elections and their National Implications,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/19/13

Al-Ali, Daoud, “Iraqi PM al-maliki: ‘I will win a third term,’” Niqash, 4/4/13

Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, “2013 Iraqi Local Election Results,” 4/26/13

Al-Mada, “Prime Minister loses seats in “their own home” .. and the sounds of his coalition in Kerbala brought him Virtue,” 4/24/13