Monday, April 22, 2013

Comparing Iraq’s Provincial Elections 2005-2013


There were many reports before Iraq’s April 2013 provincial elections that the Iraqi public was disillusioned and not interested in them. The early word out of the country’s Election Commission however showed that the same percentage of people showed up as the last vote in 2009, 51%. The total number of voters is lower this year at 6.4 million, compared to 7.5 million during the last round of balloting. That’s because two provinces, Anbar and Ninewa have had their balloting postponed. When they finally vote, the numbers will likely be very similar. The make-up of voters changed dramatically from 2005 to 2009. In the former, Sunnis boycotted, while in the latter they came out in large numbers in provinces like Diyala, Anbar, Ninewa, and Salahaddin. Only an average of 14.9% of Sunni voters participated in 2005, compared to 40-65% in 2009. Conversely, fewer Shiites and Kurds voted in that last year. In 2013, voting went down in eight of twelve provinces, which were Babil, Diyala, Karbala, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Salahaddin, and Wasit, while it stayed the same in Dhi Qar and Qadisiyah, and went up in Basra. Figures for Baghdad were incomplete so far with only 2 out of 8 districts reporting. Still, the declines were marginal, which accounts for why the overall percentage stayed the same from 2009 to 2013. 

(AP)


Voter Turnout In Iraq’s 2005, 2009 & 2013 Provincial Elections

2005
2009
2013
Anbar
2%
40%
Postponed
Babil
71%
56%
54%
Baghdad
48%
39-40%
33% for 2 of 8 districts
Basra
N/A
48%
54%
Dhi Qar
67%
50%
50%
Diyala
34%
57%
51%
Karbala
73%
60%
54%
Maysan
59%
46%
44%
Muthanna
61%
61%
59%
Najaf
73%
55%
53%
Ninewa
17%
60%
Postponed
Qadisiyah
69%
58%
58%
Salahaddin
29%
65%
61%
Wasit
66%
54%
52%
Total:
57%
51%
51%



With the numbers were roughly the same, the real question now is how the lists did. In the last vote, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law swept most of the south and Baghdad, while a few new parties emerged as well such as al-Hadbaa in Ninewa, Hope of Rafidain in Karbala and Loyalty to Najaf. This year, the premier is hoping to solidify his position with another strong showing, which will help him in the 2014 parliamentary elections. He has tried to woo Deputy Premier Salah al-Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Dialogue Front and Jamal Karbuli’s Solution Movement, so their showing will be important indicators of whether they can be worthwhile allies. They will be competing with the other remnants of the Iraqi National Movement (INM), Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya and Speaker Osama Nujafi’s National Assembly of Iraqis. All the major Shiite parties, the former INM elements, and the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence List will be running against each other in the northern provinces of Diyala, Salahaddin, and Ninewa when it will be allowed to vote. For now, it looks like the prime minister will be able to hold onto his base, while his opponents will continue to be divided.

2009 Provincial Election Results

Anbar (29 Seats)
1. Awakening of Iraq and Independents – Sheikh Abu Risha: 8 seats
2. Iraqi National Project – Deputy PM Mutlaq: 6 seats
2. Alliance of Intellectuals and Tribes – VP Hashemi: 6 seats
4. National Movement for Development and Reform – Karbuli: 3 seats
5. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 2 seats
5. Iraqi Tribes List – Sheikh Hayes: 2 seats
5. Iraqi National Unity: 2 seats

Babil (30 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 8 seats
2. Al-Mihrab Marty List – Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI): 5 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 3 seats
3. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 3 seats
3. Civil Society List: 3 seats
3. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 3 seats
3. Independent Justice Association: 3 seats
8 Independent Ansar List: 2 seats

Baghdad (57 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 28 seats
2. Iraqi Accordance Front – VP Hashemi: 7 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 5 seats
3. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 5 seats
5. Iraqi National Project – Deputy PM Mutlaq: 4 seats
6. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 3 seats
7. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 3 seats
8. Christian: 1 seat through quota
8. Mandean: 1 seat through quota

Basra (35 seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 20 seats
2. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 5 seats
3. Gathering of Justice and Unity: 2 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 2 seats
5. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 2 seats
5. Iraqi Islamic Party – VP Hashemi: 2 seats
7. Fadhila Party: 1 seats
8. Christians: 1 seat – through quota

Dhi Qar (31 seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 13 seats
2. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 7 seats
3. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 5 seats
4. National Reform Trend – Former PM Jaafari: 4 seats
5. Fadhila Party: 2 seats

Diyala (29 Seats)
1. Iraqi Accordance Front – VP Hashemi: 9 seats
2. Iraqi National Project – Deputy PM Mutlaq: 6 seats
2. Kurdish Alliance: 6 seats
4. Iraqi National List- Allawi: 3 seats
5. State of Law – PM Maliki: 2 seats
6. Diyala Coalition – ISCI: 2 seats
7. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 1 seat

Karbala (27 Seats)
1. Youssef Majid al-Habboubi: 1 seat
2. Hope of Rafidain: 9 seats
2. State of Law – PM Maliki: 9 seats
4. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 4 seats
4. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 4 seats

Maysan (27 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 8 seats
1. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 8 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 7 seats
4. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 4 seats

Muthanna (26 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 5 seats
1. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 5 seats
3. People’s List: 3 seats
3. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 3 seats
5. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 2 seats
5. Gathering of Muthanna: 2 seats
5. Independent National List: 2 seats
5. Gathering of Iraqi Professionals: 2 seats
5. Gathering of Middle Euphrates: 2 seats

Najaf (28 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 7 seats
1. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 7 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 6 seats
4. Loyalty to Najaf: 4 seats
5. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 2 seats
5. Union of Independent Najaf: 2 seats

Ninewa (37 Seats)
1. Al-Hadbaa Party – Speaker Nujafi: 19 seats
2. Ninewa Brotherhood List – Kurdish Alliance: 12 seats
3. Iraqi Islamic Party – VP Hashemi: 3 seats
4. Shabak: 1 seat – through quota
4. Christian: 1 seat – through quota
4. Yazidi: 1 seat – through quota

Qadisiyah (28 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 11 seats
2. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 5 seats
3. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 3 seats
3. National Reform Party – Former PM Jaafari: 3 seats
5. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 2 seats
5. Islamic Loyalty Party: 2 seats
5. Fadhila Party: 2 seats

Salahaddin (28 Seats)
1. Iraqi Accordance Front – VP Hashemi: 5 seats
1. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 5 seats
3. Iraq National Project – Deputy PM Mutlaq: 3 seats
3. National Project of Iraq: 3 seats
5. Group of Intellectuals and Scientists: 2 seats
5. Iraqi Turkmen Front: 2 seats
5. Front of Liberation and Building: 2 seats
5. Salahaddin Patriotic List: 2 seats
5. Brotherhood and Peaceful Coexistence – Kurdish Alliance: 2 seats
5. State of Law – PM Maliki: 2 seats

Wasit (28 Seats)
1. State of Law – PM Maliki: 13 seats
2. Al-Mihrab Martyr List – ISCI: 6 seats
3. Independent Trend of the Noble Ones – Sadr: 3 seats
3. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 3 seats
3. Iraqi Constitutional Party: 3 seats

SOURCES

AIN, “Commission: the completion of counting of some stations and the rate of participation of public and private vote 51%[Extended],” 4/20/13

Ali, Ahmed, “Iraq’s Provincial Elections and their National Implications,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/19/13

Bradley, Matt, “Iraq’s Vote Looks Set to Deepen, Not Heal, Rifts,” Wall Street Journal, 4/19/13

Knights, Michael, “Iraqi Election Success? Not So Fast,” Foreign Policy Online, February 2009

Al Mudhafar, Bushra, “Voters Uncertain For Iraqi Provincial Elections,” Al-Monitor, 4/19/13

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