After hitting a 30-year high in oil
exports at the end of 2012, Iraq’s oil output has since faltered. March 2013
was no different as the amount of petroleum shipped out fell from February, and
matched the average for last year. The Oil Ministry tried to cover that up by
claiming that the aggregate numbers and revenue were up for the month, but
that’s because March has 31 days compared to February’s 28. Overall, the
country’s leading industry has hit a plateau for at least the short-term.
 |
| Tanker docked at one of Iraq's new mooring points in Basra (Reuters) |
March witnessed a drop in both
exports and the price for Iraqi oil. The Oil Ministry announced that it
exported a total of 74.9 million barrels for the month, which was up 3.9
million barrels from February’s 71.0 million. (1) Of course, that missed the
fact that March has three more days than the previous one. When averaged out
that meant that exports actually fell from 2.53 million barrels a day in
February to 2.41 million in March. Both were below the government’s target of 3million barrels per day for the year. March’s decline was due to a fall in
shipments from both the south and north. An average of 2.1 million barrels a
day flowed through the southern pipeline to Basra, down from 2.196 million in
February. That was because the government only contracted for 35 cargos through Basra for March, six fewer than the previous month. The northern Kirkuk
line went from 339,200 barrels in February to 316,100 in March. Output headed towards
Turkey has gone up and down since the Kurds officially suspended their exports
at the end of 2012. This is the ebb and flow that has characterized Iraq’s oil
industry for the last several years. Exports go up and down for any number of
reasons from bad weather that shuts down the ports in Basra to attacks upon the
northern pipeline to bottlenecks holding up the flow of oil. Overall, for the
last twelve months the country has been at a plateau in its foreign sales.
There was a dramatic increase in exports at the end of 2012 when Iraq hit its
highest levels in 30 years. Since then they have gone back down to where they
were in the spring of 2012. From March to May 2012 for example, Iraq exported
2.31 million, 2.50 million, and 2.45 million respectively. From January to
March 2013 it shipped 2.35 million, 2.53 million, and 2.41 million. That’s not
to say that exports can’t go back up, but the Oil Ministry has not proven that
it can sustain them for any time yet.
Iraq Oil Exports And Profits
2011-2013
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg. Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue (Bill)
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.45
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
2011 Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$7.831
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.487
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.835
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
Oil
Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
February
1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917
mil/bar/day
April 2.115
mil/bar/day
May 2.086
mil/bar/day
June 2.085
mil/bar/day
July 2.216
mil/bar/day
August
2.252 mil/bar/day
September
2.178 mil/bar/day
October
2.172 mil/bar/day
November
2.122 mil/bar/day
December
2.022 mil/bar/day
January
2013 2.093 mil/bar/day
February
2.196 mil/bar/day
March 2.1
mil/bar/day
Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013
January 2012
393,500 bar/day
February
375,800 bar/day
March
400,000 bar/day
April
393,300 bar/day
May 364,500
bar/day
June
316,600 bar/day
July
300,000 bar/day
August
312,900 bar/day
September
420,000 bar/day
October
451,600 bar/day
November
426,600 bar/day
December
325,800 bar/day
January
2013 264,500 bar/day
February
339,200 bar/day
March
316,100 bar/day
March also witnessed a drop in prices
for its crude. One barrel of Iraqi oil went from $107.66 in February to $103.76
the next month. Profits were still up to $7.772 billion, the highest amount
since November’s $8.2 billion. Since 2011, Iraqi prices have stayed above $100
per barrel for 23 out of 27 months. This is due to continued tensions in the
region such as the fighting in Syria, and Iran’s nuclear program. Iraq has been
the beneficiary of this unrest, and has reaped the rewards through high oil
revenues, which funds most of the government and economy.
Iraq’s petroleum industry remains
prosperous, but not as much as Baghdad had planned. Exports have fluctuated up
and down after hitting a 30-year high at the end of last year. Overall,
production and exports have gone up each year, just not at the rates the Oil
Ministry predicted. The infrastructure is simply not there yet to sustain those
high numbers. This will be the pattern for the immediate future until new
pipelines, mooring points, storage facilities, etc. are built and come on line.
FOOTNOTES
1. Republic of Iraq Ministry of Oil, “The Iraqi Ministry of
Oil Declares its Export for February 2013,” 3/24/13
SOURCES
Aswat al-Iraq, “March oil exports increased, ministry of
oil,” 4/24/13
Lee, John, “Iraq to cut Basra Crude Exports,” Iraq Business
News, 3/5/13
Platts, “Iraq’s February oil output
rises marginally to 2.963 million b/d,” 3/27/13
Republic of Iraq Ministry of Oil, “The Iraqi Ministry of Oil
Declares its Export for February 2013,” 3/24/13
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