There was a difference of opinion on Iraqi deaths from March to April 2014. Iraq Body Count and
the Iraqi government had basically the same figures between the two months,
while the United Nations and Agence France Presse (AFP) saw more sizeable
differences. Musings On Iraq however found a drop due to the security measures
imposed before the country’s elections, which occurred at the end of the month.
That raises the question of what has been going on with fatalities in Iraq.
A different picture was painted of deaths in Iraq in April
2014 depending upon which agency was consulted. Iraq Body Count (IBC) and the
Iraqi ministries found little difference between March and April. IBC reported 1,009 deaths in
March, and 1,013 in April. Similarly Baghdad had 1,004 killed in March, and 1,009 in April.
When averaged out IBC had 34.7 fatalities per day in January, going down to
32-33 per day from February to April. Likewise the Iraqi authorities had an
average of 32.6 in January, 28.2 in February, 32.3 in March, and 33.6 in April.
According to them there has been very little difference in casualties since the
beginning of the year. The United Nations’ numbers are problematic because they
do not count Anbar. In January there were 733 deaths and 703 in February. Then
in March it had 748 and 885 in
April, but those included data from the health directorate of Anbar rather
than their own independent findings. It is therefore difficult to tell whether
there has been any real change based upon its figures. AFP has been keeping their
own count and came up with 991 killed in January, 747 in February, 512 in
March, and 795 in April. That was a wide fluctuation, especially in March when
it only had an average of 16.5 dead per day, the lowest of any group this year.
Still, it had an uptick in insurgent activity in the lead up to the country’s
elections. Finally, Musings On Iraq was the outlier with deaths dropping from
1,606 in March, the highest so far in 2014, to 1,456 in April. That would point
to the security measures imposed to protect the balloting having an effect as
the majority of militant groups opposed the balloting and targeted candidates,
Election Commission members, and voting centers leading up to the event. Despite
that Musings On Iraq found those activities could not maintain the level of
casualties from the previous month.
Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013
Month/Year
|
Iraq Body
Count
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
Iraqi
Ministries
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
United
Nations
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
Agence
France Presse
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
Musings
On Iraq
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
2003
|
4,675
|
19.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2004
|
11,608
|
31.8l
|
11,313
|
30.99
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2005
|
16,186
|
44.2
|
15,817
|
43.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2006
|
29,144
|
79.8
|
32,622
|
89.3
|
34,452
|
94.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2007
|
25,519
|
69.9
|
19,155
|
52.4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2008
|
9,839
|
26.9
|
9,046
|
24.7
|
11,536
|
31.6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
5,132
|
14.0
|
3,682
|
10.0
|
4,611
|
12.6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
4,109
|
11.2
|
3,949
|
10.8
|
4,855
|
13.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2011
|
4,147
|
11.3
|
2,781
|
7.6
|
4,150
|
11.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2012
|
4,573
|
12.5
|
2,174
|
5.9
|
3,878
|
10.6
|
1,531
(7 mo.)
|
7.1
|
-
|
-
|
Jan. 2013
|
357
|
11.5
|
177
|
5.7
|
319
|
10.2
|
246
|
7.9
|
-
|
-
|
Feb.
|
360
|
12.7
|
136
|
4.8
|
418
|
14.9
|
220
|
7.8
|
-
|
-
|
Mar.
|
403
|
13.0
|
163
|
5.2
|
456
|
14.7
|
271
|
8.7
|
-
|
-
|
Apr.
|
545
|
18.1
|
208
|
6.9
|
712
|
23.7
|
461
|
15.3
|
-
|
-
|
May
|
888
|
28.6
|
681
|
21.9
|
1,045
|
33.7
|
614
|
19.8
|
-
|
-
|
Jun.
|
659
|
21.9
|
240
|
8.0
|
761
|
25.3
|
452
|
15.0
|
-
|
-
|
Jul.
|
1,145
|
36.9
|
989
|
31.9
|
1,057
|
34.0
|
875
|
28.2
|
-
|
-
|
Aug.
|
1,012
|
32.6
|
365
|
11.7
|
804
|
25.9
|
693
|
22.3
|
-
|
-
|
Sep.
|
1,221
|
40.7
|
971
|
32.3
|
979
|
32.6
|
880
|
29.3
|
-
|
-
|
Oct.
|
1,095
|
35.3
|
964
|
31.0
|
979
|
31.5
|
743
|
23.9
|
-
|
-
|
Nov.
|
903
|
30.1
|
948/
1,121
|
31.6/
37.3
|
659
|
21.9
|
693
|
23.1
|
-
|
-
|
Dec.
|
983
|
31.7
|
1,001
|
32.2
|
759
|
24.4
|
668
|
21.5
|
-
|
-
|
2013 Totals
|
9,571
|
25.9
|
6,843/
7,016
|
18.7/
19.2
|
8,948
|
24.5
|
6,818
|
18.6
|
-
|
-
|
Jan. 2014
|
1,076
|
34.7
|
1,013
|
32.6
|
733*
|
23.6
|
991
|
31.9
|
1,379
|
44.4
|
Feb.
|
930
|
33.2
|
790
|
28.2
|
703*
|
25.1
|
747
|
26.5
|
1,274
|
45.5
|
Mar.
|
1,009
|
32.5
|
1,004
|
32.3
|
748
|
24.1
|
512
|
16.5
|
1,606
|
51.8
|
Apr.
|
1,013
|
33.7
|
1,009
|
33.6
|
885
|
29.5
|
795
|
26.5
|
1,456
|
48.5
|
* Figures
do not include Anbar
According to Iraq Body Count and the Iraqi ministries the
current level of deaths is the same as 2004. That is an apt comparison, because
that was the year when the insurgency was first taking off. 2004 saw the two
battles of Fallujah and the Sadrist uprising. By 2005 there were street battles
in Baghdad, and the country was sliding into civil war. The question facing
Iraq now is whether it will get that bad once again.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraq Unrest”
Al Forat, “UNAMI announces casualty
figures for April 2014,” 5/1/14
Iraq Body Count
Russia Today, “Iraq’s April death
toll exceeds 1,000 – officials,” 5/2/14
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