Musings On Iraq Security Report April 2014

Insurgents ramped up their operations as April progressed in anticipation of Iraq’s parliamentary elections. The Iraqi Security Forces’ counter measures were effective in reducing the number of attacks when voting started on April 28. Still the month ended as tied for costliest of the year so far.

There were 999 security incidents in April 2014 in Iraq. That was basically the same as January’s 1,012, February’s 945, and March’s 996. For the year the average number of attacks per day has stayed steady with 32.6 in January, 33.7 in February, 32.1 in March, and 33.3 in April. April’s violence was spread across twelve of Iraq’s eighteen provinces. Baghdad had the most with 215. It has had more than 200 attacks per month since the beginning of the year. It was followed by Salahaddin with 204, the most so far in 2014. Ninewa was third with 186 in line with the preceding months, and Anbar was fourth with 181. Attacks there have gone up and down with 240 in January, 173 in February, and 213 in March. Babil has seen an increase in attacks recently. In January there were only 27 incidents there. In February the security forces tried to clear the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) out of the northern section of the province and failed. Since then the number of clashes has increased with 41 in February, 40 in March, and 49 in April. ISIS also launched car bombs in Maysan, Muthanna, and Wasit. The south remains largely untouched by terrorism however. Najaf for example has not seen a single attack this year, and Qadisiyah only 1 in January, Muthanna 2 overall, and Dhi Qar and Karbala 4 each. Basra has seen limited violence with only 34 incidents so far, but many of those appear to be local issues and not connected to the insurgency. Wasit is the only southern governorate to get touched by insurgents, and even then there’s only been 20 attacks there in the last four months.

While attacks have remained relatively stable the number of casualties has steadily increased. At the beginning of the year there were 1,379 killed, followed by 1,274 in February, 1,606 in March, and 1,456 in April for a total of 5,715 for the year. That averaged out to 44.4 deaths per day in January, 45.5 in February, 51.8 in March, and 48.5 in April. The number of wounded has seen a much steeper climb. There were 2,634 in January, 2,526 in February, 2,901 in March, and 2,905 in April for 10,966 overall. The averages show the jump in injured much more sharply with 94.9 injured per day in January, 90.2 in February, 93.5 in March, and 96.8 in April. Overall that made the last month tied with March for the most average casualties seen so far.

Insurgents have also changed tactics since the beginning of the year. For the first two months there were roughly the same number of shootings as bombings. In January there were 470 gunfire incidents and 514 bombings. In February there were 444 shootings and 466 bombs. Then in March militants started launching more bombings with 579 compared to 419 shootings, and then 581 bombs in April with only 374 shootings. In April that averaged out to 12.4 gunfire incidents and 19.3 bombings per day. Car bombs are by far the deadliest form of attack, but those have remained at the same level for the year with 78 in January, 73 in February and March each, and 75 in April. The same was true for suicide bombings until April. From January to March there were 43-45 per month, but then that jumped to 65 in April. That was because the security measures before the elections included banning vehicle traffic. The insurgents adapted by having suicide bombers go after voting centers since they couldn’t get any cars close enough. In Ninewa for example, there were 4 suicide attacks upon voting centers in Mosul on April 30, and another in Baiji, Salahaddin. The numbers are slightly misleading, because a single well placed car bomb or suicide attack can leave behind a huge human toll. The increasing use of explosives rather than small arms largely accounts for why deaths and injuries have gone up over the last two months.

The Iraqi forces were able to curtail insurgent operations by the end of April in time for the voting (AFP)

A more detailed breakdown of April showed that the insurgents picked up their operations with ever more costly results at the beginning of the month, but then were not able to maintain that level by the end. In the first week there were an average of 34.0 attacks per day, 37.0 deaths, and 78.5 wounded. The next week security incidents went down to 31.8, but were deadlier at 51.7 fatalities per day, and 92.2 injured. That reached a peak from April 15-21 when there were 35.8 incidents per day leading to 58.0 killed and 112.2 wounded. Then things changed as preparations for the elections were made and attacks dropped to 32.2 per day in the 3^rd week with 49.5 dead and 106.2 wounded. For the last two days of the month that covered the general balloting there were 30.5 attacks, 41.0 deaths, and 89.5 wounded. The overall numbers are still too high for any country, but show that the government was able to curtail at least some of the militant’s activities.

Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Apr 2014

	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Gunfire	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	1,012	1,379	2,634	470	514	78	45
Feb	945	1,274	2,526	444	466	73	43
Mar	996	1,606	2,901	419	579	73	43
Apr	999	1,456	2,905	374	581	75	65
Total	3,952	5,715	10,966	1,707	2,140	299	196

Avg Security Incidents Per Day In Iraq Jan-Apr 2014

	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Gunfire	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	32.6	44.4	94.9	15.1	16.5	2.5	1.4
Feb	33.7	45.5	90.2	15.8	16.6	2.6	1.5
Mar	32.1	51.8	93.5	13.5	18.6	2.3	1.3
Apr	33.3	48.5	96.8	12.4	19.3	2.5	2.1
Total	32.9	47.6	91.3	14.2	17.8	2.4	1.6

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Jan-Apr 2014

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Anbar	240 Incidents 184 Killed 487 Wounded	173 Incidents 184 Killed 437 Wounded	213 Incidents 343 Killed 627 Wounded	181 Incidents 271 Killed 555 Wounded
Babil	27 Incidents 11 Killed 51 Wounded	41 Incidents 110 Killed 260 Wounded	40 Incidents 117 Killed 269 Wounded	49 Incidents 89 Killed 197 Wounded
Baghdad	252 Incidents 557 Killed 1,187 Wounded	204 Incidents 363 Killed 851 Wounded	233 Incidents 384 Killed 947 Wounded	215 Incidents 424 Killed 924 Wounded
Basra	4 Incidents 3 Killed 1 Wounded	7 Incidents 6 Killed	7 Incidents 7 Killed	16 Incidents 15 Killed 1 Wounded
Dhi Qar	2 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Wounded	1 Incident 1 Killed 4 Wounded	1 Incident 1 Killed	-
Diyala	70 Incidents 156 Killed 150 Wounded	65 Incidents 72 Killed 138 Wounded	71 Incidents 113 Killed 159 Wounded	70 Incidents 117 Killed 233 Wounded
Karbala	-	2 Incidents 5 Killed 5 Wounded	1 Incident 4 Killed 15 Wounded	1 Incident 3 Killed
Maysan	3 Incidents 2 Killed	2 incidents 2 Killed	1 Incident 1 Killed	2 Incidents 6 Killed 17 Wounded
Muthanna	1 Incident 1 Killed	-	-	1 Incident 7 Killed 35 Wounded
Najaf	-	-	-	-
Ninewa	185 Incidents 183 Killed 197 Wounded	184 Incidents 206 Killed 277 Wounded	180 Incidents 192 Killed 260 Wounded	186 Incidents 243 Killed 358 Wounded
Qadisiyah	1 Incident 1 Killed	-	-	-
Salahaddin	172 Incidents 239 Killed 401 Wounded	193 Wounded 283 Killed 466 Wounded	192 Incidents 406 Killed 508 Wounded	204 Incidents 190 Killed 362 Wounded
Tamim	50 Incidents 37 Killed 151 Wounded	71 Incidents 40 Killed 85 Wounded	52 Incidents 29 Killed 102 Wounded	68 Incidents 70 Killed 176 Wounded
Wasit	6 Incidents 4 Killed 8 wounded	2 Incidents 2 Killed 3 Wounded	5 Incidents 9 Killed 14 Wounded	6 Incidents 21 Killed 47 Wounded

 
Security Incidents By Week Apr 2014

Week	Attacks	Deaths	Wounded	Avg Attacks	Avg Deaths	Avg Wounded
Apr 1-7	238	259	550	34.0	37.0	78.5
Apr 8-14	223	362	646	31.8	51.7	92.2
Apr 15-21	251	406	786	35.8	58.0	112.2
Apr 22-28	226	347	744	32.2	49.5	106.2
Apr 29-30	61	82	179	30.5	41.0	89.5

The Iraqi Security Forces were able to keep the country relatively safe during the voting period at the end of April. The insurgents tried to get around the security measures and were able to carry off some bombings and mortar fire, but the election pretty much went off as planned. Unfortunately, the ISF has not proven capable of stopping much else by the insurgents, hence the climbing number of dead and wounded. During April there were several offensives launched in Babil, Salahaddin, and other provinces. The problem is that after these operations the ISF left the areas allowing the fighters to move right back in. The commitment of army and police to Anbar has also left large swaths of the country with little to no coverage, and thus allowed the armed factions to expand into new parts of Iraq. History is seemingly repeating itself with 2014 being strikingly similar to 2004 when the insurgency took off in Anbar, then marched towards Baghdad, while the government forces proved incapable of stemming the tide. The next step would be street fighting in Baghdad, which is the goal of several insurgent factions, and appears to be right around the corner.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, "Car Bombs in Baghdad, Iraqi Town Kill 34 People," Associated Press, 4/9/14

Al Forat, "Suicide bombing targets electoral center in Salah il-Din," 4/30/14

- "Wasit car bombing kills, injured 27 persons as initial count," 4/21/14

Iraq Times, "34 martyrs and wounded the outcome of the five explosions that hit the city of Kut," 4/9/14

- "A car bomb explosion north of Wasit 29 martyrs and wounded," 4/21/14

Al Mada, "Toll rises in suicide bombing to 22 dead and wounded," 4/30/14

Al Masalah, "3 killed and 39 injured by a roadside bombs north of Samawah," 4/20/14

NINA, "37 killed and wounded the toll of victims of Wasit explosions," 4/9/14

- "Army kills suicide bomber tried to enter a polling station east of Mosul," 4/30/14

- "Five people, including a policeman, killed, three others injured in a suicide bombing in north of Tikrit," 4/30/14

- "Three suicide bombers killed in Mosul," 4/30/14

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Iraq: Separate attacks kill at least 12 people," 4/20/14