Since Iraq held parliamentary elections on April 30, 2014
the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) led by Ammar Hakim and the Ahrar
bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr have moved to re-form the National Alliance, which
emerged during the last round of balloting in 2010. Hakim and Sadr have talked
about institutionalizing the alliance as the representative of the Shiite
religious parties and make it the main decision maker as to who should be
nominated prime minister. The problem is that it seeks to include Premier Nouri
al-Maliki’s State of Law (SOL), while opposing his third term in office. This
means that this entire exercise may be a futile act.
 |
| Sadr (left) and Hakim (right) have been trying to bring back the National Alliance to stop Maliki from a third term but it is unlikely to work (Al Kashf) |
As soon as voting was over in Iraq the major Shiite
religious parties began talking about the National Alliance (NA). On April 30,
the day of the balloting ISCI head Ammar Hakim called
for the NA to be brought back. Ten
days later Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Fadhila party made
similar comments, and then on May
13, members of the National Alliance met with Maliki. Since then much of
the talk has been about making
the coalition a formal organization that represents the Shiite parties, and
therefore has the right to name
the prime minister. The Sadrists and Supreme Council have been trying to set up formal rules to make this
happen. At the same time they want to include a two-term
limit on the premiership. Shiites are the majority of the population in
Iraq, and because of the ethnosectarian quota system they receive the
premiership. What ISCI and the Sadrists are trying to do is simply codify control
over that position. At the same time they want to prevent Maliki from
maintaining his office.
Therein lies the problem with the alliance. State of Law has
stated that since it won the most seats in the balloting the National Alliance should follow its
lead and approve Maliki as prime minister again. It has also mentioned
forming a government without
the coalition. Sadr and Hakim have little leverage over the situation right
now. Even if they were able to get Fadhila and Ibrahim Jaafari’s National
Reform Movement the two other members of the Alliance to join them they would
only have 77
seats compared to SOL’s 95. Only if Maliki came to them for support and
they were able to remain unified, which is not a given would they have some
say.
The National Alliance may have passed its prime. Sadr and
Hakim are hoping that the coalition will allow them to name the next prime
minister. The problem is that they oppose Maliki and he will never go along
with their attempts to block him from a third term. Instead of trying to bring
back the NA the Sadrists and ISCI would be better served if they started negotiations
with other Maliki opponents such as Kurdish President Massoud Barzani’s
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi’s
Mutahidun, and Iyad Allawi’s Nationalists. Together they could pose a real
counter to Maliki. Instead they are fighting a losing battle within the
National Alliance.
SOURCES
Hasan, Harith, “Prospects of
Shiite ‘National Alliance’ hinge on Maliki,” Al Monitor, 5/22/14
Iraq Times, “National Coalition
declares its readiness for an alliance with the state of law in the absence of
Maliki’s nomination for a third term,” 5/22/14
Al Mada, “National Alliance held a
meeting in the presence of al-Maliki: securing a good atmosphere between the
government and the parliament is necessary,” 5/13/14
New Sabah, “”Citizens” and
“Liberals” talking about “strong government” and Erbil raise the ceiling
demands: annexation of Kirkuk and Khanaqin,” 5/22/14
Al Rafidayn, “Hakim: We still
start from now re-formation of the National Alliance,” 4/30/14
- “Maliki and the Virtue Party
underline the importance of activating the National Alliance to build a strong
government,” 5/10/14
- “State of Law: we will form a
government without reference to the National Alliance,” 5/10/14
Al Rayy, “The political body of
the National Alliance emphasizes the need to “develop” rules of procedure,”
5/22/14
Shafaq News, “Ahrar bloc: We will
face the difficulty in adopting rules of procedure of the National Alliance for
one reason,” 5/26/14
- “Jaafari Movement: The quest to
define the mandate of Prime Minister is contrary to the Constitution,” 5/27/14
- “National Alliance agree on
writing internal system and mechanism of decision-making by naming Prime
Minister,” 5/18/14
Yunus, Muhammad, “Analyst:
National Alliance differences may lead to disintegration,” Radio Free Iraq,
5/26/14
No comments:
Post a Comment