Iraq’s oil exports recovered in April 2014 despite its
northern pipeline still being out of service. This was due to the country’s
southern outlets increasing their output, thanks to increased capacity and a
new central metering and manifold platform opening. The Basra pipeline will
have to sustain this effort because it doesn’t seem like the Kirkuk line will
be repaired any time soon due to the insurgency.
From March to April 2014 Iraq’s exports increased by over
110,000 barrels a day. Its flow to foreign markets went from 2.396 million
barrels a day in March to 2.509
million in April. Almost all of this came from Iraq’s southern Basra
pipeline. The northern Kirkuk line remains down since early last month when insurgents
bombed it in Ninewa and then kept away repair crews. The flow through the
south increased from 2.37 million to 2.509 million because of increased
capacity at the two single point mooring facilities, along with a new central
metering and manifold platform, which facilities exports through the two
points. Each mooring has a capacity
of 900,000 barrels a day but operates below that level due to a lack of
pumping capacity, inadequate storage tanks, and other issues. A third mooring
station is due to open in the middle of this year, and a fourth by the end of
it. That will greatly enhance the country’s exports. Without that added
capacity fields such as West Qurna 2 and Majnoon, which are just now ramping
up, would have to cut their production since there is not enough storage space
for much express petroleum that is not exported. The south already handles the
vast majority of Iraq’s oil sales, and the country may become solely dependent
upon it since the insurgency is increasing in the north making the Kirkuk line
unreliable. Militants and oil smugglers attacked
it almost once a week in 2013. Now it has been down for two months and
there are no immediate plans to get it up and working again because it is too
dangerous for work crews to go to the damaged section and repair it.
Iraq
Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2013
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg.
Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue
(Bill)
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.47
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
2011
Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$8
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.453
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.846
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
Apr.
|
2.62
|
$98.70
|
$7.764
|
May
|
2.48
|
$97.23
|
$7.477
|
Jun.
|
2.32
|
$97.40
|
$6.799
|
Jul.
|
2.32
|
$101.00
|
$7.272
|
Aug.
|
2.57
|
$104.45
|
$8.356
|
Sep.
|
2.07
|
$104.87
|
$6.511
|
Oct.
|
2.25
|
$102.57
|
$7.160
|
Nov.
|
2.381
|
$102.57
|
$7.324
|
Dec.
|
2.341
|
$102.89
|
$7.470
|
2013
Avg.
|
2.386
|
$102.33
|
$7.435
|
Jan. 14
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.074
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$8.001
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
Apr
|
2.509
|
$100+
|
$7.577
|
Oil Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
February 1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917 mil/bar/day
April 2.115 mil/bar/day
May 2.086 mil/bar/day
June 2.085 mil/bar/day
July 2.216 mil/bar/day
August 2.252 mil/bar/day
September 2.178 mil/bar/day
October 2.172 mil/bar/day
November 2.122 mil/bar/day
December 2.022 mil/bar/day
2012
Avg. 2.042 mil/bar/day
January 2013 2.093 mil/bar/day
February 2.196 mil/bar/day
March 2.1 mil/bar/day
April 2.31 mil/bar/day
May 2.19 mil/bar/day
June 2.13 mil/bar/day
July 2.32 mil/bar/day
August 2.30 mil/bar/day
September 1.90 mil/bar/day
October 2.06 mil/bar/day
November 2.281 mil/bar/day
December 2.081 mil/bar/day
2013
Avg. 2.16 mil/bar/day
January 2014 2.036 mil/bar/day
February 2.507 mil/bar/day
March 2.370 mil/bar/day
April 2.509 mil/bar/day
Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013
January 2012 393,500 bar/day
February 375,800 bar/day
March 400,000 bar/day
April 393,300 bar/day
May 364,500 bar/day
June 316,600 bar/day
July 300,000 bar/day
August 312,900 bar/day
September 420,000 bar/day
October 451,600 bar/day
November 426,600 bar/day
December 325,800 bar/day
2012
Avg. 373,300 bar/day
January 2013 264,500 bar/day
February 339,200 bar/day
March 316,100 bar/day
April 306,600 bar/day
May 283,800 bar/day
June 193,300 bar/day
July 180,600 bar/day
August 270,900 bar/day
September 250,000 bar/day
October 193,000 bar/day
November 309,00 bar/day
December 260,000 bar/day
2013
Avg. 264,200 bar/day
January 2014 192,000 bar/day
February 292,000 bar/day
March 25,806 bar/day
April 0 bar/day
The average price per barrel for Iraqi crude has not been
released yet, but it remained above $100 in April. That meant the country was
able to bring in $7.577 billion that month, roughly the same as March’s $7.507
billion. Prices have remained $100 or more since July, but they were heading
downwards this year form $102.37 in January to $101.03 in March. The 2014 draft
budget, which has not been passed yet due to political disputes relies upon oil
for more than 90% of its funding. If the Oil Ministry is not able to keep up
exports it will cause widespread financial problems. That puts added pressure
for Baghdad to get the two new moorings up and running this year. The problem
is that Iraq rarely finishes any major projects on time. The third mooring
should still open this year, but the fourth may have to wait until 2015 if
things don’t go right.
Iraq is increasing its petroleum production at a time when
its export infrastructure is barely keeping pace. Anytime bad weather hits,
maintenance is carried out, or a terrorist attack takes down one of the
pipelines or shuts down a port, output at the fields has to be reduced,
sometimes leading to re-injecting the oil back into them, which can damage the
wells. The longer the fields are down the longer it takes to get output back
up. Luckily the mooring stations in Basra are running at a higher rate so they
can relieve some of this pressure. The same cannot be said for the north where
major fields like Kirkuk are hampered by the line to Turkey being down. For the
time being Iraq will have to solely rely upon its southern ports to handle all
of its exports and earn most of its money since security is too bad in the
center to get the Kirkuk line back up for now.
SOURCES
Lando, Ben, “Despite March exports drop, record output for
new buoys,” Iraq Oil Report, 4/11/14
Lando, Ben, Al-Najaf, Kamaran, “Iraqi exports rebound
despite loss of northern pipeline,” Iraq Oil Report, 5/4/14
Lawler, Alex, “Iraq’s southern oil exports on track for
record in April,” Reuters, 4/23/14
Al-Najaf, Kamaran, Lando, Ben, “Iraq’s March oil exports
fall by 400k bpd,” Iraq Oil Report, 4/25/14
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