How Bad Has Security Gotten In Iraq? Comparing 1st Qtr 2013 With 1st Qtr 2014

 

2014 was the year that Iraq’s insurgency was reborn. There is open fighting in Anbar, and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) has lost control of territory in other parts of the country as well. The result is that casualty figures are climbing ever higher. A comparison of attacks in the first quarter of 2013 with the first quarter of this year illustrates just how bad the situation has gotten. The number of security incidents has gone up 60%, while the dead and wounded have nearly doubled. The first three months of last year were important as well, because it was when militants first started ramping up their activities. The contrast between the two highlights how much the armed factions have grown over the last twelve months.

The beginning of 2013 was when Iraq’s insurgency first took off. In January and February there were 560 and 517 attacks respectively. In March that jumped to 707. The first two months had the same level of militant activity with an average of 18.0 and 18.4 incidents per day, but then went up to 22.8 in the last month. Casualties climbed as a result. There were 728 deaths in January, 23.4 per day, 685 in February, 24.4, before reaching 937 in March, 30.2 per day. Wounded went the same way going from 1,453 in January to 1,777 in March, going from an average of 46.8 to 57.3 per day. The major cause for the increase was more bombings. There were 308 in January, 285 in February, and 423 in March, jumping from an average of 9.9 per day to 13.6. Car bombs, which are the deadliest form of attack nearly doubled from 38 in January to 65 in March. Shootings, 226 to 301 and suicide bombs 9 to 19 went up as well. March was when the insurgency first started ramping up its operations after re-organizing. By then the Syrian civil war had been going on for nearly two years allowing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) to expand and gain more recruits, material, and fund raising. Ansar al-Sunna became involved in the fighting next door as well. Protests had also started in Anbar, Salahaddin, Ninewa, and Kirkuk against the government starting in December 2012. Towards the end of January 2013 protesters threw rocks at the security forces in Fallujah provoking gunfire, which killed 9 and wounded 60. In the aftermath gunmen were seen marching through the city, some leaders in Anbar threatened to attack the army in retaliation, and a sniper killed a soldier. The insurgency jumped on the opportunity to exploit the anger that followed with both ISIS and the Baathist Naqshibandi issuing internet statements saying they stood with the protesters, with the latter setting up its own protest sites in Tikrit, Hawija, and Ninewa. The security forces would continue to provoke the demonstrations by arresting leaders, blocking people from attending, and shooting at demonstrators again in Mosul in March. These all opened up more opportunities for armed groups, which explains why the number of attacks went up in March.

Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Mar 2013

Month	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	560	728	1,453	226	308	38	9
Feb	517	685	1,218	188	285	45	9
Mar	707	937	1,777	301	423	65	19
Total	1,783	2,344	4,426	715	1,015	147	37

Avg. Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Mar 2013

Month	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	18.0	23.4	46.8	7.2	9.9	1.2	0.2
Feb	18.4	24.4	43.5	6.7	10.1	1.6	0.3
Mar	22.8	30.2	57.3	9.7	13.6	2.0	0.6
Total	19.8	26.0	49.1	7.9	11.2	1.6	0.4

This all came to fruition in 2014 when open fighting with government forces started. In the first quarter of 2013 there were an average of 19.8 attacks per day. That jumped to 32.8 per day by the first three months of 2014. Likewise shootings went from 7.9 to 14.8, bombs 11.2 to 17.3, car bombs from 1.6 to 2.4, and suicide bombers from 0.4 to 1.4 per day over that time period. The results were casualties nearly doubled from 26.0 killed and 49.1 wounded per day in the start of 2013 to 47.3 deaths and 89.5 injured during the beginning of 2014. These were all signs that Iraq went from a serious terrorist problem to a full-blown insurgency that is growing and taking territory from the government.

Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Mar 2014

Month	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	1,012	1,379	2,634	470	514	78	45
Feb	945	1,274	2,526	444	466	73	43
Mar	996	1,606	2,901	419	579	73	43
Total	2,953	4,259	8,061	1,333	1,559	224	131

Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Mar 2014

Month	Attacks	Killed	Wounded	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan	32.6	44.4	84.9	15.1	16.5	2.5	1.4
Feb	33.7	45.5	90.2	15.8	16.6	2.6	1.5
Mar	32.1	51.8	93.5	13.5	18.6	2.3	1.3
Total	32.8	47.3	89.5	14.8	17.3	2.4	1.4

Tracking attacks also reveals where armed groups are most active and expanding in Iraq right now. Anbar is the most obvious hot spot since cities like Fallujah, parts of Ramadi, and the surrounding towns are currently under militant control. In 2013, insurgents were building off the protests there. For the first three months of that year there were an average of 44.3 attacks per month, 50.3 killed, and 46.6 wounded. During that same period in 2014 there were 208.6 attacks per month, 237.0 deaths, and 517.0 injured showing a huge increase in violence. A large proportion of the dead and wounded currently are the result of government shelling and air strikes however. In March 2014 for instance, there were 343 killed and 627 wounded, but early a third of those deaths, 122, and more than half of the injured, 405, were due to government actions. ISIS has set up bases in northern Babil and fought off government forces there recently leading to a doubling of violence. In the first quarter of 2013 there were only sporadic attacks, but there was already an uptick in activity with car and suicide bombings. In January for example there were 24 attacks, highlighted by a car bomb on Shiite pilgrims in Musayib on January 3 that killed 27 and wounded 60. Then another such attack upon a checkpoint south of Hillah leaving 10 victims and 20 injured and a car bomb on pilgrims in Qasim with 7 dead and 28 wounded on January 17. January 22 a car bomb on a checkpoint took the lives of 5 and wounded 15, and a suicide bomber in Mahmudiya killed 7 and injured 26. By March there were 5 car bombings and one suicide bombing with a total of 96 deaths and 42 wounded. In February 2014 the security forces tried to clear insurgents out of the Jurf al-Sakhr area, but failed. The latter launched a number of retaliatory strikes in the following weeks. That left 110 killed and 260 injured in February and 117 killed and 269 wounded by March. A starker contrast is made by the averages going from 44.3 attacks per month, 50.3 dead, and 46.6 wounded in the first quarter of 2013 to 36.0 incidents, 79.3 fatalities, and 193.3 wounded during the start of 2014. Baghdad has been the main target of ISIS, which has struck both Shiite and Sunni areas of the province to try to re-ignite the sectarian civil war. In the first quarter of 2013 there were an average of 155 attacks per month. That rose to 227 per month by the first quarter of 2014. Likewise the number of fatalities went from 235 in the beginning of 2013 to 434 in the start of 2014, and the wounded went from 429 to 995 showing a nearly doubling of casualties there. Violence in Diyala has actually decreased a small bit between the two time periods. There were 318 incidents from January to March 2013 leading to 379 dead and 740 wounded. During those same months a year later the number of attacks went down to 206 with 341 deaths and 447 injured. Kirkuk province has seen a slight drop in attacks as well. There were 42 incidents in January 2013, 44 in February, and 61 in March versus 50 in January 2014, 71 in February and 51 in March. Militants have slightly picked up their activities in Ninewa going from 123 attacks per month in the 1^st quarter of 2013 to 183 in the beginning of 2014. Salahaddin on the other hand, has seen a large increase with 87 attacks per month initially in 2013 to 100 in the beginning of 2014. That led casualties to jump from 332 in the 1^st quarter of 2013 to 767 in the 1^st quarter of 2014. ISIS has also maintained its capabilities to carry out bombings in the south. In January 2013 there was 1 car bomb in Karbala, one in Wasit and Karbala each in February, and then two in Qadisiyah and three in Basra in March. In contrast there were no car bombs in southern Iraq in January 2014, but one in Wasit in February, and three in Wasit, one in Karbala in March. These statistics show that the militants have re-established themselves in the central part of Iraq where they were based before the Surge in 2007. Anbar, northern Babil, Salahaddin, eastern Diyala, Mosul in Ninewa, and parts of Kirkuk are all insurgent strongholds. They are expanding from there into new areas taking advantage of the Iraqi army and police being overcommitted to Anbar.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Jan-Mar 2013

Province	Jan	Feb	Mar
Anbar	53 Attacks 39 Killed 67 Wounded	32 Attacks 16 Killed 31 Wounded	48 Attacks 96 Killed 42 Wounded
Babil	24 Attacks 71 Killed 178 Wounded	13 Attacks 25 Killed 64 Wounded	18 Attacks 45 Killed 60 Wounded
Baghdad	128 Attacks 139 Killed 189 Wounded	155 Attacks 276 Killed 537 Wounded	184 Attacks 291 Killed 561 Wounded
Basra	2 Attacks 2 Killed	-	5 Attacks 12 Killed 45 Wounded
Dhi Qar	-	1 Attack 2 Wounded	1 Attack
Diyala	112 Attacks 162 Killed 248 Wounded	101 Attacks 99 Killed 254 Wounded	105 Attacks 118 Killed 238 Wounded
Karbala	8 Attacks 13 Killed 67 Wounded	1 Attack 7 Killed 24 Wounded	3 Attacks 3 Killed 11 Wounded
Kirkuk	42 Attacks 46 Killed 224 Wounded	44 Attacks 69 Killed 111 Wounded	61 Attacks 34 Killed 371 Wounded
Maysan	1 Attack	1 Attack 1 Wounded	-
Muthanna	-	-	-
Najaf	-	-	-
Ninewa	101 Attacks 108 Killed 106 Wounded	111 Attacks 145 Killed 108 Wounded	159 Attacks 151 Killed 185 Wounded
Qadisiyah	-	-	1 Attack 15 Killed 71 Wounded
Salahaddin	86 Attacks 147 Killed 374 Wounded	55 Attacks 45 Killed 68 Wounded	120 Attacks 170 Killed 192 Wounded
Wasit	2 Attacks 1 Killed	3 Attacks 3 Killed 18 Wounded	2 Attacks 2 Killed 1 Wounded

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Jan-Mar 2014

Province	Jan	Feb	Mar
Anbar	240 Attacks 184 Killed 487 Wounded	173 Attacks 184 Killed 437 Wounded	213 Attacks 343 Killed 627 Wounded
Babil	27 Attacks 11 Killed 51 Wounded	41 Attacks 110 Killed 260 Wounded	40 Attacks 117 Killed 269 Wounded
Baghdad	252 Attacks 557 Killed 1,187 Wounded	204 Attacks 363 Killed 851 Wounded	233 Attacks 384 Killed 947 Wounded
Basra	4 Attacks 3 Killed 1 Wounded	7 Attacks 6 Killed	7 Attacks 7 Killed
Dhi Qar	2 Attacks 1 Killed 1 Wounded	1 Attack 1 Killed 4 Wounded	1 Attack 1 Killed
Diyala	70 Attacks 156 Killed 150 Wounded	65 Attacks 72 Killed 138 Wounded	71 Attacks 113 Killed 159 Wounded
Karbala	-	2 Attacks 5 Killed 5 Wounded	1 Attack 4 Killed 15 Wounded
Kirkuk	50 Attacks 37 Killed 151 Wounded	71 Attacks 40 Killed 85 Wounded	51 Attacks 29 Killed 102 Wounded
Maysan	3 Attacks 2 Killed	2 Attacks 2 Killed	1 Attack 1 Killed
Muthanna	1 Attack 1 Killed	-	-
Najaf	-	-	-
Ninewa	185 Attacks 183 Killed 197 Wounded	184 Attacks 206 Killed 277 Wounded	180 Attacks 192 Killed 260 Wounded
Qadisiyah	1 Attack 1 Killed	-	-
Salahaddin	172 Attacks 239 Killed 401 Wounded	193 Attacks 283 Killed 466 Wounded	192 Attacks 406 Killed 508 Wounded
Wasit	6 Attacks 4 Killed 8 Wounded	2 Attacks 2 Killed 3 Wounded	5 Attacks 9 Killed 14 Wounded

Security Incidents In Iraq Monthly Avg. Comparison 2013 vs. 2014

Province	2013 1st Qtr Monthly Avg.	2014 1st Qtr Monthly Avg.
Anbar	44.3 Attacks 50.3 Killed 46.6 Wounded	208.6 Attacks 237.0 Killed 517.0 Wounded
Babil	18.3 Attacks 47.0 Killed 100.6 Wounded	36.0 Attacks 79.3 Killed 193.3 Wounded
Baghdad	155.6 Attacks 235.3 Killed 429.0 Wounded	229.6 Attacks 434.6 Killed 995.0 Wounded
Basra	2.3 Attacks 4.6 Killed 15.0 Wounded	6.0 Attacks 5.3 Killed 0.3 Wounded
Dhi Qar	0.6 Attacks 0.6 Wounded	1.3 Attacks 1.0 Killed 1.6 Wounded
Diyala	106.0 Attacks 126.3 Killed 246.6 Wounded	68.6 Attacks 113.6 Killed 149.0 Wounded
Karbala	4.0 Attacks 7.6 Killed 34.0 Wounded	1.0 Attacks 3.0 Killed 6.6 Wounded
Kirkuk	49.0 Attacks 49.6 Killed 235.3 Wounded	57.3 Attacks 35.3 Killed 112.6 Wounded
Maysan	0.6 Attacks 0.3 Wounded	2.0 Attacks 1.6 Killed
Muthanna	-	0.3 Attacks 0.3 Killed
Najaf	-	-
Ninewa	123.6 Attacks 134.6 Killed 133.0 Wounded	183.0 Attacks 193.6 Killed 244.6 Wounded
Qadisiyah	0.3 Attacks 5.0 Killed 23.6 Wounded	0.3 Attacks 0.3 Killed
Salahaddin	87.0 Attacks 120.6 Killed 211.3 Wounded	185.6 Attacks 309.3 Killed 458.3 Wounded
Wasit	2.3 Attacks 2.0 Killed 6.3 Wounded	4.3 Attacks 5.0 Killed 8.3 Wounded

Baghdad Belt map found on Zarqawhi's body in 2006 (Long War Journal)

The burst in fighting in 2014 is a direct result of the insurgency re-establishing itself in the beginning of 2013. It was in the latter period that militants begin re-establishing their networks and recruiting and first began increasing their operations in the center of the country. Their ultimate goal is Baghdad, which they are currently aiming for. ISIS for one is repeating the same strategy it followed from 2004-2007 marching from Anbar to the Baghdad Belts, the provinces and towns surrounding the capital city. This plan was drawn up by then Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and revealed when he was killed in 2006 and a treasure trove of documents was captured. The Naqshibandi has also talked about “liberating” the capital. Their collective action shows that they are not far away from achieving that goal of spreading the fighting to Baghdad. The Iraqi Security Forces are already strained dealing with Anbar. Threatening the capital will likely bring out the Shiite militias, which are currently fighting in Syria and are reported to be involved in Anbar already. The question is how bad will things get in the near future?

SOURCES

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AIN, "Death toll of Basra bombings hit 37 deaths, injuries," 3/17/13

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Ghazi, Yasir and Arango, Tim, “Iraq Parliament Votes to Keep Maliki From Seeking New Term,” New York Times, 1/26/13

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- “Army force coming from Baghdad arrested a tribal Sheikh and his two sons east of Tikrit,” 1/31/13

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