Large Drop In Fighting In Iraq 3rd Week of August, 2014

For the last two weeks of August 2014 there was a decided decline in the number of security incidents reported in the press. The third week of the month saw the fewest acts of violence and a corresponding drop in casualties. In Baghdad for example there was a large reduction in dead and wounded because there were hardly any car bombs, while Kirkuk saw hardly any attacks. This all point to the fighting in Iraq settling into a rough stalemate

From August 15-21, 2014 there were only 150 incidents mentioned in the media. This was the lowest of the year surpassing the previous nadir of 170 seen in the middle of June. Before that there were 265 incidents from August 1-7, and then 178 from August 8-14. Casualties have gone down as well. In the first week of the month there was a yearly high 951 killed due to heavy fighting and massacres by the Islamic State (IS). That went down to 709 the second week. The third week there was 348 deaths made up of 4 Sahwa, 17 Peshmerga, 44 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and 283 civilians. That was the lowest since 256 fatalities from May 15-21. The number of injured has gone up and down in August from 885 the first week to 1,152 the second week, the most of 2014, and then 499 the third week. That last figure was made up of 9 Sahwa, 17 Peshmerga, 95 ISF, and 378 civilians. The weekly numbers are always below the actual figures. Who knows how many people have been killed in insurgent held territories. Likewise Baghdad and Irbil have stopped openly reporting on the casualties for their forces since the fall of Mosul. Still the overall trend is that violence is going down in the middle of August, as there are fewer militant advances.

Security Incidents In Iraq Aug 1-21, 2014

Incidents	Dead	ISF Sahwa Peshmerga Dead	Civilian Dead	Wounded	ISF Sahwa Peshmerga Wounded	Civilian Wounded	Gunfire	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombers
265	951	126 ISF 19 Sahwa 56 Peshmerga	750	885	218 ISF 7 Sahwa 23 Peshmerga	637	124	104	17	7
178	709	26 ISF 10 Sahwa 217 Peshmerga	456	1,152	74 ISF 4 Sahwa 542 Peshmerga	532	84	106	17	25
150	348	44 ISF 4 Sahwa 17 Peshmerga	283	499	95 ISF 9 Sahwa 17 Peshmerga	378	70	62	7	4

Violence In Iraq 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	736
Jan 8-14	272	364	683
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,890
Feb 1-7	204	296	700
Feb 8-14	226	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	346	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	618
FEB	945	1,274	2,526
Mar 1-7	253	412	702
Mar 8-14	206	324	612
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	110	168	271
MAR	996	1,606	2,901
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	223	362	646
Apr 15-21	251	406	786
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	999	1,456	2,905
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	469	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	204	407	817
May 29-31	63	90	132
MAY	905	1,468	2,610
Jun 1-7	224	588	1,021
Jun 8-14	227	658	887
Jun 15-21	170	729	564
Jun 22-28	170	720	775
Jun 29-30	56	127	236
JUN	877	2,822	3,483
Jul 1-7	200	511	622
Jul 8-14	211	577	625
Jul 15-21	225	398	1,000
Jul 22-28	223	549	801
Jul 29-31	65	162	230
JUL	924	2,197	3,278
Aug 1-8	265	951	885
Aug 9-14	178	709	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	348	499

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Aug 15-21, 2014

Province	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded	Types of Attack
Anbar	25	87 5 ISF 82 Civilians	151 3 ISF 5 Sahwa 143 Civilians	8 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Car Bombs
Babil	13	16 3 ISF 13 Civilians	45 5 ISF 40 Civilians	6 Shootings 3 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Sticky Bombs
Baghdad	36	65 11 ISF 54 Civilians	141 31 ISF 110 Civilians	16 Shootings 12 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bombs
Basra	4	4 4 Civilians	-	4 Shootings
Diyala	17	36 11 ISF 16 Peshmerga 9 Civilians	23 3 ISF 10 Peshmerga 10 Civilians	10 Shootings 3 IEDs
Karbala	1	-	-	2 IEDs
Kirkuk	4	3 1 ISF 2 Civilians	11 1 ISF 10 Civilians	1 Shooting 4 IEDs
Ninewa	7	89 89 Civilians	-	3 Shootings 2 IEDs
Qadisiyah	2			2 IEDs
Salahaddin	41	48 13 ISF 4 Sahwa 1 Peshmerga	128 52 ISF 4 Sahwa 7 Peshmerga	22 Shootings 18 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs

In the last month or so fighting in Anbar has been concentrated in two areas. On the government’s side it is attempting to clear Ramadi and the surrounding countryside. In the second week of August a new military offensive was started there. The security forces have said they have been successful in clearing the sector, but previous claims in Anbar have always been fleeting. For insurgents they continue to attack Haditha with its strategic dam. The ISF has been able to hold out despite being surrounded, and has started some attacks to relieve the pressure on the area. Finally 25 tribes met on August 15 calling for a new Sahwa, backed by Baghdad. Some were organized into a unit to defend Haditha. August 20 the Defense Ministry said it would accept 5,000 tribal fighters into the army, while the Interior Ministry would pay for 10,000 in a new Awakening. The sheikhs and Anbar officials are worried that the central government will repeat what it did before, which is to take in a few tribesmen as police and soldiers, while keeping the majority as irregulars that can be discarded in the future. The numbers by the Defense and Interior ministries show this is exactly what Baghdad is doing once again. The government needs to make a better effort to reach out and support these offers from the tribes if it wants to turn around security in the province, which has seen open fighting since January leading to 85% of it falling into insurgent hands.

In terms of reported violence there were 25 incidents in the 3^rd week of August in Anbar, which was just about the same as the previous week’s 30. 87 people were killed and 151 were wounded. As usual most of these were the result of indiscriminate shelling by the government on Fallujah, Garma, and Rawa, which cost the lives of 69 civilians and 119 wounded.

Casualties From Government Shelling In Anbar Aug 1-21, 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Aug 1	Fallujah	3	13
Aug 2	Fallujah	6	9
	Garma	3	11
Aug 3	Fallujah	8	14
Aug 4	Fallujah	11	19
Aug 5	Fallujah	6	13
	Garma	2	4
Aug 6	Fallujah	7	35
	Garma	2	7
Aug 7	Fallujah	9	23
WK TOTALS	-	57	148
Aug 8	Fallujah	4	7
	Garma	3	7
Aug 9	Fallujah	3	8
	Garma	1	9
Aug 10	Fallujah	7	12
Aug 11	-	-	-
Aug 12	Fallujah	6	10
	Garma	3	5
Aug 13	Fallujah	2	8
Aug 14	-	-	-
WK TOTALS	-	29	66
Aug 15	Fallujah	7	18
	Garma	7	11
Aug 16	Fallujah	9	14
Aug 17	Fallujah	6	11
	Garma	2	7
Aug 18	Fallujah	6	13
	Garma	6	4
Aug 19	Fallujah	5	15
	Garma	2	3
Aug 20	Fallujah	11	8
	Garma	3	5
	Rawa	-	2
Aug 21	Fallujah	5	8
WK TOTALS	-	69	119

The situation in Babil has largely remained the same for 2014. The ISF and militias continue to launch operations to clear Jurf al-Sakhr with little affect. On August 17 new Babil Operations Command head General Abdul Hussein Mahmoud claimed that insurgents in the area were surrounded and that the security forces were fully in control of the situation. The next day the army suddenly withdrew from a section of Jurf al-Sakhr claiming it was a tactical withdrawal. The pattern has been for IS to either move into neighboring Anbar during such offensives or defend their bases. For the third week of August there were 13 incidents leading to 16 deaths and 45 wounded. IS was able to launch three suicide car bombings on Iskandiriya on August 18 and 19 leading to one death and 16 wounded.

Attacks and deaths in Baghdad saw a large decline from the second to third week of August. Security incidents went from 46 in August 8-14 to 36 in August 15-21, the number killed dropped from 108 to 65, and the injured decreased from 259 to 141. One of the main causes was that there was no car bomb wave in the third week unlike the previous two. There were only three such attacks, one on a bridge in Yusifiya on August 17 with no casualties, and then two on August 20 in Husseiniya and Palestine Street killing 11 and wounding 30. Bodies continued to be dumped in the capital as well. A total of 14 were found in seven different locations. Two were stabbed, but the rest were discovered bound or handcuffed and shot hallmarks of militias.

Car Bombs In Baghdad Aug 1-21, 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Aug 1	Sadr City	16	25
Aug 2	-	-	-
Aug 3	-	-	-
Aug 4	-	-	-
Aug 5	-	-	-
Aug 6	Sadr City x2, Ur x2, New Baghdad x2	47	117
Aug 7	Kadhimiya	16	37
Aug 8	Sadr City	2	7
Aug 9	-	-	-
Aug 10	-	-	-
Aug 11	Diyala Bridge	4	8
Aug 12	Karrada & Zafaraniya	17	44
Aug 13	New Baghdad, Baya, Amil	18	43
Aug 14	-	-	-
Aug 15	-	-	-
Aug 16	-	-
Aug 17	Yusifiya	-	-
Aug 18	-	-	-
Aug 19	-	-	-
Aug 20	Husseiniya & Palestine St	11	30
Aug 21	-	-	-
Total	18	131	301

Bodies Dumped In Baghdad Aug 1-21, 2014

Date	Location	Bodies Found
Aug 1	-	-
Aug 2	-	-
Aug 3	-	-
Aug 4	Kadhimiya	2
Aug 5	East & ?	5
Aug 6	Zafaraniya & Obeidi	3
Aug 7	-	-
Aug 8	Rasheed	4
Aug 9	Obeidi & ? x2	8
Aug 10	Fudhliya	1
Aug 11
Aug 12	Abu Dishr	1
Aug 13
Aug 14
Aug 15
Aug 16	Ghaziliya	2
Aug 17	Sadr City, Zafaraniya, North	5
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20	Shurta Rabia	1
Aug 21	Zayouna & ?	6
TOTAL	18	38

 

Kurdish forces continue to try to retake the Jalawla area of Diyala province. In early August the town fell to IS in an offensive that caught the Peshmerga off guard. Since then they have been reinforced with fighters from Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and are being supported by some Army air strikes as well. Together they claimed to have pushed the insurgents out of five villages in neighboring Sadiya, and one village in the Jalawla district. In the meantime IS was said to be blowing up mosques and other buildings in the area. The combined Kurdish fighters with central government support could bring together the necessary force to deal the insurgents another setback if they are able to retake Jalawla, which has historically been a hotbed for militant attacks. 

Kirkuk had hardly any incidents reported in the third week of August. There were only 4 in the press with 3 deaths and 11 wounded. Those were some of the lowest figures for the year. One of the leaders of the Obeidi tribe offered to help fight the insurgency if he received assistance from Baghdad and Irbil. Anwar al-Asi refused to pledge allegiance to IS in his village south of Kirkuk city, and was attacked for it forcing him to flee to Sulaymaniya. Other tribes might be fighting the militants already. This is another opportunity for the authorities to find local allies who will help them secure the province.

In Ninewa the Islamic State was dealt its first major loss since their summer offensive started when it lost Mosul Dam. Again combined Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi Kurds along with a unit of the Golden Division from the Iraqi army supported by American air strikes led to IS withdrawing from the facility on August 17. At the same time, on August 15 IS was able to take Kojo. It gave the Yazidi residents three days to convert to Islam, and when none did they were massacred with at least 84 killed. Like in Sinjar, the women of the village were taken away probably to become wives of the Islamist fighters. The initial losses in Ninewa has led to some soul searching amongst Kurds about the Peshmerga who had an image of invincibility before. In fact, they proved over stretched when they took over the disputed territories after the fall of Mosul, too lightly armed, and inexperienced having not had any serious fighting since the 1990s. The presence of foreign Kurdish fighters has also led to some political attacks by pro-Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) media sources claiming that the Turkish PKK and its Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG) were trying to take over Sinjar and stopping military operations. The KDP has seen the PKK as a rival before and was trying unsuccessfully to usurp its strength in Syria before the fighting in Iraq started. The on-going crisis has not stopped these partisan attacks from occurring in the press. For the week there were only 7 incidents reported in Ninewa resulting in 89 killed, mostly the Yazidis from Kojo and no wounded. Again with all the clashes there the actual casualties were probably much higher.

Salahaddin remains a main battlefront. There were 41 attacks reported, the most of any province from August 15-21 with 48 deaths and 128 wounded. There was fighting all across the middle of the governorate in places like Dhuluiya, Samarra, Shirqat, Tuz Kharmato, Dujail, and Baiji. August 19 the ISF and militias made another ill conceived attempt on Tikrit that fell soon after Mosul, which failed again. The attacking force came in from three sides, but IEDs laid across the roads and heavy gunfire made them withdraw. Several local tribes are fighting insurgents in the province, but few are receiving government support. Tribes in Dujail called on Baghdad to arm them so that they could fight on August 17. The Jabour tribe has been battling militants from almost the beginning. Like in Anbar, the central authorities need to provide not only arms and supplies, but also guarantees to these tribesmen if they want to win the fight here.

Southern Iraq saw sporadic violence. There were four shootings in Basra leading to four deaths. Three of those were dumped bodies in Basra city. Two IEDs went off in Karbala and Qadisiyah respectively with no casualties. No one was held responsible for these attacks. They could have been the result of criminals, militias, inter Shiite disputes such as followers of Mohammed Hassani Sarkhi or other groups.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq jihadists destroy Shiite mosque, execute muezzin,” 8/15/14

- “Iraq Sunni Tribes Take Up Arms against Jihadists,” 8/15/14

AIN, “ISIL elements withdraw from Sa’diya villages,” 8/16/14

Alsumaria, "Found the body of a man shot and dumped north of Baghdad," 8/17/14

- "Killing and wounding 10 people, including women and children, in the fall of mortar shells in Fallujah," 8/21/14

- "Killing and wounding 19 people in the fall of mortar shells in Fallujah," 8/20/14

- "Killing and wounding 20 people including a woman and five children in the fall of mortar shells in Fallujah," 8/19/14

- “Source: tactical withdrawal of army troops from the north of Babylon Fadiliyah,” 8/18/14

- "Two unidentified bodies found in Baghdad," 8/20/14

Buratha News, “Clans south of Tikrit, calling on the government to arm them to defend the country and the people to repel Daash terrorist attacks,” 8/17/14

- “Defense and Interior agree on the appointment of 15 thousand volunteers from Anbar tribes,” 8/20/14

- "Found six unidentified bodies in eastern Baghdad," 8/21/14

- "A suicide bombing targeting a military checkpoint northern Babylon, without damage or casualties thankfully," 8/19/14

Fayaq, Nuwar, “PKK Wants to Form Sinjar Canton,” Bas News, 8/15/14

Al Forat, "2 suicide bombing attacks in northern Babel," 8/18/14

- “Peshmirga forces liberated Islahi village in Diyala from ISIL,” 8/17/14

- “Security forces liberate Shamiya district in Ramadi,” 8/17/14

- “Terrorists of ISIL defeated in Jurf al-Sakher,” 8/17/14

Haaretz, “Middle East updates/Kurdish forces retake Iraq’s largest dam,” 8/17/14

Iraq Times, "34 martyrs and injured in the explosion of a car bomb on Palestine Street in eastern Baghdad," 8/20/14

-"Martyrdom of two soldiers and wounding 12 others in the blowing up of a bridge north of Jurf al-Sakhr," 8/17/14

Al Mada, "Found the bodies of two unidentified men dumped stabbed to death in western Baghdad," 8/16/14

- "Found three unidentified bodies in eastern Baghdad," 8/17/14

- "Killing and injuring seven persons in sticky bomb detonation north of Baghdad," 8/20/14

Al Masalah, "Martyrdom of one civilian and wounding eight others in bombs in Alexandria, north of Babylon," 8/18/14

National Iraqi News Agency, “An army force and the sons of the tribes entered the northern neighborhood of al- Haqlaniyah district in Haditha,” 8/15/14

- "Unidentified body found in southeast of Baghdad," 8/17/14

Radio Free Iraq, “15 August 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar,” 8/15/14

- "16 August 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/16/14

- "17 August 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/17/14

- "18 August 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/18/14

- “19 August 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/19/14

- "20 August 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/20/14

- "21 August 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 8/21/14

Al Rayy, "Martyrdom and wounding 17 people in explosion of two car bombs in northern Babil," 8/18/14

Rudaw, “PKK Sets Conditions for Assistance and Military Missions on Mount Shingal,” 8/15/14

Shafaq News, “Army withdraws from Tikrit and loses its position,” 8/19/14

Sly, Liz, "Islamic State fighters kill dozens of Yazidi villagers," Washington Post, 8/16/14

Soguel, Dominique, “With Islamic State threatening region, can Iraq’s peshmerga turn the tide?” Christian Science Monitor, 8/18/14

Solomon, Erika and Dombey, Daniel, “PKK ‘terrorists’ crucial to fight against Isis,” Financial Times, 8/15/14

van den Toorn, Christine, “How the U.S.-favored Kurds Abandoned the Yazidis when ISIS Attacked,” Daily Beast, 8/17/14