IS Still Making Charge In Anbar While Iraq Forces On Offensive In Babil & Salahaddin 3rd Wk Of October 2014

Violence remains relatively low in Iraq in October 2014 in comparison to the height of the summer offensive. The third week of the month saw a decline in attacks, deaths and wounded from the second week, which witnessed a slight jump in all of those categories. Anbar remained under threat, and the Islamic State (IS) launched a major assault upon a town in Diyala, but eventually withdrew. More importantly fighting returned to Ninewa as Mount Sinjar was fully encircled. In places like Salahaddin and Babil however, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were on the offensive themselves. This is what the military situation in Iraq will look like in the immediate future. The insurgents still have the initiative with the ability to launch attacks when and where they want, but the government forces are trying to reclaim some of the ground that they lost.

The third week of October tied for the second fewest reported attacks of any week of 2014. The press had 156 security incidents from October 15-21. That was down from the previous week, which saw a brief surge in violence with 188 attacks. For the week Anbar had the most attacks with 41, followed by 40 in Baghdad, 34 in Salahaddin, 21 in Ninewa, and then just 7 in Babil, 5 in Diyala, 3 in Basra, 2 each in Kirkuk and Wasit, and one in Karbala. So far Iraq has been averaging 24.4 attacks per day for the month, which is up from September’s 23.0, but below August’s 26.9, July’s 30.0, and June’s 29.3 when fighting was really raging across the center of the country.

Casualties dipped from October 15-21, back down to what was seen at the start of the month. There were 449 dead and 770 wounded recorded in the media. The former was made up of 35 members of the ISF, 24 Peshmerga, four Sahwa, and 386 civilians. The latter consisted of 75 ISF, 51 Peshmerga, five Sahwa, and 639 civilians. That was on par with the first week’s 451 killed and 687 wounded, and below the second week’s 532 fatalities and 875 injured. Baghdad had almost half of the week’s casualties with 205 killed and 453 wounded. That was followed by 79 dead in Salahaddin, 54 in Ninewa, 39 in Anbar, 27 in Diyala, 26 in Karbala, 12 in Babil, 3 in Basra, and two each in Kirkuk and Wasit. Deaths were decidedly down this month from September. During the latter there was an average of 91.4 deaths per day. In October there has only been 68.0 so far. That highlights how fighting has decreased across Iraq since the summer time. That dip started in the middle of August and has continued since then.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	736
Jan 8-14	273	364	683
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,015	1,483	2,890
Feb 1-7	204	296	700
Feb 8-14	226	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	346	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	618
FEB	945	1,274	2,526
Mar 1-7	253	412	702
Mar 8-14	206	324	612
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	110	168	271
MAR	996	1,606	2,901
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	223	362	646
Apr 15-21	251	406	786
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	999	1,456	2,905
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	469	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	204	407	817
May 29-31	64	90	132
MAY	906	1,468	2,610
Jun 1-7	227	629	1,021
Jun 8-14	227	1,238	891
Jun 15-21	171	758	754
Jun 22-28	200	720	775
Jun 29-30	56	127	236
JUN	881	3,472	3,684
Jul 1-7	200	511	622
Jul 8-14	213	577	625
Jul 15-21	227	400	1,000
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	930	2,280	3,278
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	178	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	835	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	157	933	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	567
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	691	2,676	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	446	769

Violence In Iraq By Province Oct 1-21, 2014

Province	Oct 1-7	Oct 8-14
Anbar	39 Incidents 145 Killed: 78 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 54 Civilians 136 Wounded: 43 ISF, 7 Sahwa, 86 Civilians 27 Shootings 5 IEDs 3 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers	37 Incidents 44 Killed: 9 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 31 Civilians 56 Wounded: 3 Sahwa, 53 Civilians 28 Shootings 2 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil	10 Incidents 17 Killed: 3 ISF, 14 Civilians 64 Wounded: 4 ISF, 60 Civilians 1 Shooting 7 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	10 Incidents 39 Killed: 2 ISF, 37 Civilians 26 Wounded: 4 ISF, 22 Civilians 8 Shootings 2 IEDs
Baghdad	27 Incidents 77 Killed: 3 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 72 Civilians 212 Wounded: 3 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 207 Civilians 4 Shootings 11 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb	36 Incidents 171 Killed: 5 ISF, 166 Civilians 453 Wounded: 1 ISF, 452 Civilians 5 Shootings 20 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 5 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers
Basra	2 Incidents 1 IED	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Diyala	17 Incidents 41 Killed: 30 ISF, 8 Peshmerga, 3 Civilians 34 Wounded: 20 ISF, 8 Peshmerga, 2 Sahwa, 4 Civilians 12 Shootings 5 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers	24 Incidents 93 Killed: 8 ISF, 31 Peshmerga, 54 Civilians 152 Wounded: 6 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 142 Civilians 9 Shootings 16 IEDs 4 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk	11 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 24 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 20 Civilians 3 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb	8 Incidents 7 Killed: 1 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians 30 Wounded: 5 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 21 Civilians 7 Shootings 1 Motorcycle Bomb
Ninewa	11 Incidents 53 Killed: 53 Civilians 5 Shootings 1 IED	10 Incidents 37 Killed: 37 Civilians 8 Shootings 2 IEDs
Salahaddin	52 Incidents 116 Killed: 44 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 66 Civilians 217 Wounded: 49 ISF, 15 Sahwa, 153 Civilians 25 Shootings 33 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 5 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers	58 Incidents 140 Killed: 59 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 78 Civilians 158 Wounded: 48 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 107 Civilians 25 Shootings 53 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 7 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Suicide Bomb
Province	Oct 15-21
Anbar	41 Incidents 39 Killed: 4 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 32 Civilians 69 Wounded: 5 Sahwa, 64 Civilians 28 Shootings 3 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil	7 Incidents 12 Killed: 12 Civilians 33 Wounded: 4 ISF, 29 Civilians 3 Shooting 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad	40 Incidents 205 Killed: 19 ISF, 186 Civilians 453 Wounded: 44 ISF, 409 Civilians 10 Shootings 18 IEDs 1 Sticky Bombs 9 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers
Basra	3 Incidents 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 ISF 3 Shootings
Diyala	5 Incidents 27 Killed: 27 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs
Karbala	1 Incident 26 Killed: 26 Civilians 55 Wounded: 55 Civilians 4 Car Bombs
Kirkuk	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 IEDs
Ninewa	21 Incidents 54 Killed: 1 ISF, 22 Peshmerga, 31 Civilians 51 Wounded: 51 Peshmerga 12 Shootings 10 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Suicide Bomber
Salahaddin	34 Incidents 79 Killed: 11 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 1 Sahwa, 65 Civilians 108 Wounded: 26 ISF, 82 Civilians 18 Shootings 92 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb

 

Since the Islamic State began its summer offensive in June there have been fewer car bombs each month, but more car bomb waves with greater frequency. In the third week of October there were a total of 20 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) costing the lives of 167 people and wounding another 289. So far this month there have been four such waves going from October 1-4, October 7-9, October 11-14, and October 19-21. At the beginning of the year there were only around 2-3 waves each month.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Oct 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct. 1	New Baghdad, Baghdad	17	59
Oct. 2	Hit x3, Anbar Great Dam, Diyala Balad, Salahaddin	46	35
Oct. 3	Outside Samarrra & Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	3	8
Oct. 4	Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin	12	24
Oct. 5
Oct. 6
Oct. 7	Hit, Anbar Mashtal & Arboretum, Baghdad Abassid & Amerli, Salahaddin	40	78
1st Wk Oct Totals	15	118	204
Oct. 8	Garma, Anbar Sadr City, Baghdad	12	33
Oct. 9	Baquba, Diyala	9	11
Oct. 10
Oct. 11	Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar Kadhimiya & Shula x2, Baghdad West of Tikrit, Shajarat al-Dor, Tikrit x2, Camp Speicher x4, Salahaddin	86	164
Oct. 12	Qara Tapa, Diyala x3 Samarra, Salahaddin	58	111
Oct. 13	Sadr City & Kadhimiya, Baghdad	31	86
Oct. 14	Kadhimiya, Baghdad	25	56
2nd Wk Oct Totals	22	221	461
Oct. 15
Oct. 16	Ramadi, Anbar Mahmudiya, Babil Dawlai, Kadhimiya & Hurriya, Baghdad Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	43	57
Oct. 17	Suleikh, Baladiyat & Karrada, Baghdad	32	101
Oct. 18
Oct. 19	Baiji & Tarmiya, Salahaddin	8	20
Oct. 20	Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar Mosul Dam, Ninewa Karbala x4, Karbala	44	80
Oct. 21	Kadhimiya x3, Baghdad	40	31
3rd Wk Oct Totals	20	167	289

Despite promises by Prime Minister Haider Abadi government forces have not stopped shelling and carrying out air strikes on civilian areas. In the third week of October Fallujah and an area north of Tikrit were all hit with 47 dead and 56 wounded. The reason why this is such an issue is because the Iraqi army’s artillery is notoriously inaccurate due to poor intelligence and coordination. That means most of the shelling is indiscriminate and has killed a huge number of civilians. Abadi’s remarks about ending this practice would not only appeal to Sunnis who are the victims, but stop a useless tactic that does nothing militarily and just costs the lives of innocent people. Unfortunately nothing has changed.

Casualties From Government Shelling & Air Strikes In Iraq Oct. 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct. 1	Fallujah, Anbar		6
Oct. 3	Fallujah, Anbar	4	11
Oct. 4	Rabad, Salahaddin	3	5
Oct. 6	Hit, Anbar	15
	Fallujah, Anbar	1	8
	Rabia, Ninewa	12
Oct. 7	Fallujah, Anbar	3	5
	Khalidiya, Anbar	5	7
1st Wk Oct Totals	-	43	42
Oct. 8	Fallujah, Anbar	7	16
	Tikrit, Salahaddin	14
Oct 9	Dour, Salahaddin	7	3
Oct. 10	Fallujah, Anbar	4	13
Oct. 11	Fallujah, Anbar	2	6
Oct. 14	Fallujah, Anbar	3	3
	Baiji, Salahaddin	4
2nd Wk Oct Totals	-	41	41
Oct. 15	Fallujah, Anbar	3	6
Oct. 18	Fallujah, Anbar	4	7
	North of Tikrit, Salahaddin	18	4
Oct. 19	Fallujah, Anbar	3	9
Oct. 20	Fallujah, Anbar	18	17
Oct. 21	Fallujah, Anbar	1	13
3rd Wk Oct Totals	-	47	56

The Islamic State is continuing its charge across Anbar. In the middle of October it captured an army base outside of Hit. It was able to seize seven Abrams tanks, 22 Humvees, and 18 other vehicles. This adds to the huge stocks of weapons and material that the group has been able to get from the government since June.

Since then IS has been focused upon taking Ramadi. On October 15 IS attacked the city from three directions starting around midnight, and were able to bomb the provincial council building and the Anbar police headquarters. Afterward the Anbar Operations Command said they were going to launch a counter attack starting in the center of the city. The ISF and allied tribes were also trying to clear the outlying towns such as Albu Diab and Albu Jassim. By October 21, the ISF claimed it had secured 60^th and 20^th Streets along with the Rimayla and Tamim districts of the city in the south and center. Many of these regions have been contested since January however so any gains are usually temporary. If IS was able to take Ramadi it would be a coup since it is the provincial capital. Fighting has been going on there for months, but it finally appears that the insurgents might be gaining the upper hand as they have been able to taken control of new neighborhoods in recent weeks.

(Weather-forecast.com)

IS is also attempting to take Baghdadi and the neighboring Al-Assad base. Militants have been able to surround both the town and the base, and cut off their supply lines. On October 18 reinforcements did arrive at Al-Assad, probably by air. One soldier inside the compound told McClatchy Newspapers that his compatriots were broken and didn’t know how long they could hold out. Recently U.S. advisers were deployed to the base as well. They find themselves in a precarious situation, and could be the first American troops to face combat if security continues to deteriorate there. More importantly Assad is the largest remaining base in Anbar and its capture would be another coup for the insurgents.

(Institute for the Study of War)

Amiriya Fallujah is a major target as well. October 15 IS began attacks on the city, and the local police chief said that the town was almost surrounded. On October 16 insurgents launched another three pronged assault upon it, which was repulsed. The next day reinforcements arrived. October 18 IS made another attempt on the town. That failed as well, but the insurgents have been able to consolidate their hold on the surrounding rural areas. October 19 a member of the Anbar council told the press that the army backed by coalition air strikes was able to break open supply lines to Amiriya relieving some of the pressure there. The town is another part of Anbar that has been hotly contested for weeks and gone back and forth between government and insurgent hands. The attacks there, in Ramadi, Baghdadi and Al-Assad show that the militants are operating in western, central and eastern Anbar simultaneously, and rather successfully, while stretching the ISF and tribes.

On a positive note, the Interior Ministry approved the formation of a local security force for the province. It is to be made up of three brigades of 1,000 tribal fighters each. It will be called the Special Task Force Brigades, and be trained by the U.S. at the Habaniya base in the center of the province. The Anbar council has embraced the idea of a national guard to be under local control. The Iraqi parliament has not passed the legislation to form this force yet, so these new brigades are the next best the thing. The question is how quickly can they be armed and trained and put out into the field as all of Anbar is on the brink with militants controlling at least 80% of the territory.

The third week of October saw the fourteenth security operation of 2014 begin in northern Babil. The thirteenth sweep of the province was announced around October 15 when the Mayor of Musayib announced that Sadr’s Peace Brigades had cleared the lakes region of Iskandiriya, and were going to turn over the area to the ISF. Then on October 20 the fourteenth operation began. First, the ISF and militias said it had cleared the road linking Jurf al-Sakhr to Amiriya Fallujah in Anbar, which had been used as a supply route for the Islamic State. The government had been working on this area for several weeks. Then the ISF and allies began advancing into northeast Babil from Anbar. On October 21 it was reported that 100 insurgents surrounded, as the Babil Operations Command began the new campaign. These are the exact same tactics employed in the last operation. That one included the Anbar, Bahgdad and Babil Operation Commands and pushed in from the north west and east into Babil. As with the previous ones there were reports of success, but a new operation beginning almost immediately afterward belies those comments. Militias have complained that there was a lack of coordination with the ISF and volunteers in previous campaigns, and that Maliki was interfering with the military leadership and planning. It’s yet to be seen whether the government can clear and hold ground in this area, which is has focused upon since the start of the year.

Baghdad saw another series of car bombings and suicide attacks during the week. October 16 four VBIEDs went off in Dawlai, Kadhimiya and Hurriya killing 32 and wounding 78. Kadhimiya has been targeted again and again in the past few weeks as it is a core Shiite neighborhood with an important shrine. The next day, three car bombs detonated in Adhamiya, Baladiyat and Karrada costing 32 lives and injuring 101. Then October 19 and 20 suicide bombers hit two mosques killing a total of 40 and injuring 69. Finally, October 21 Kadhimiya was struck by three more VBIEDs with 40 dead and 31 wounded.

(Arsenal For Democracy)

In Diyala IS attempted to seize a target of opportunity in Qara Tapa. October 20 it assaulted and held the town for several hours. It entered wearing peshmerga uniforms and were able to kidnap six people, while executing nine. Then a full scale battle broke out. Almost half of the town’s 9,000 residents fled as a result. The seeming victory was short lived as the next day the militants withdrew. The militias, ISF and peshmerga had all been on the offensive in Diyala over the last few weeks. The attack upon Qara Tapa had no strategic significance, but it highlighted the ability of the insurgents to continue operations in the midst of military pressure being applied to them.

Fighting returned to Ninewa in the middle of October. During the second week of the month the Kurds said that they were liberating Sinjar, which was taken by the Islamic State in August, but then it was revealed that IS had actually surrounded Mount Sinjar and were trying to take it once again. On October 20 there were clashes in all the surrounding areas such as Khazir, Bartella, Bashiqa, Tilkaif and Mount Sinjar itself. IS was able to seize two towns north of the mountain that day as Yazidi fighters ran out of ammunition. Twenty peshmerga were also killed and 51 wounded. On Mount Sinjar there are two Yazidi militias resisting the IS push. They told Rudaw that they had not received supplies for weeks. There are also YPG, PKK, and peshmerga fighters in the area as well. IS has cut off the supply routes to the mountain and the Yazidi forces are desperate for weapons and ammunition. This reverses the positive news that had come out of the area previously with the Kurds able to take several towns and the Rabia border crossing with Syria. There are still a few hundred families on Mount Sinjar, and if it were taken more massacres and kidnappings would occur as happened during the first IS assault in August.

The security forces launched a multi-pronged operation in Salahaddin to take Baiji and Tikrit. October 16 the chief of the Salahaddin Operations Command let the press know about the new campaign. On October 19 the ISF freed Albu Tuma to the north of Tikrit. October 21 the elite Golden Division was fighting in Hajaj in the Baiji district to the north of Tikrit as well. That area was said to have been cleared on October 10 and again on October 20, but as with many places it has gone back and forth. October 21 the Salahaddin Police chief noted that the ISF had gotten to the outskirts of Baiji in the south, and took the village of Mazra in the district. The security forces are attempting to surround Tikrit, which fell to insurgents back in June. Baiji is also important as the nearby Baiji refinery is a major piece of infrastructure that needs to be kept in government hands. The refinery itself has faced renewed attacks in the last few weeks as well. It would be an important piece of equipment to help IS maintain its territory if it could operate it.

(Wikipedia)

In eastern Salahaddin’s Tuz Kharmato there is on going violence and problems between the militias and peshmerga. October 16 a car bomb went off at the offices of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in the city of Tuz. Then on October 18 members of the Badr militia got into a gunfight with the peshmerga in the district. A Badr vehicle refused to stop at a Kurdish checkpoint leading to a skirmish that left 1 peshmerga and two militiamen injured. The two sides then met to try to resolve the issue. This is not the first time an incident like this has occurred there. The two forces are attempting to assert their control over the district, which has led to tensions rising between them. The area appears to be up for grabs as many of the Sunni residents have fled and the militias are carrying out retaliatory attacks to drive more out and stop others from returning by destroying their houses.

SOURCES

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- “Iraqi forces beat back assault on city, reinforce town,” 10/15/14

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AIN, "Death toll of eastern Baghdad explosion increase," 10/17/14

- "IA officer killed in Anbar," 10/19/14

- “Security forces liberate Albu Tuma village of northern Tikrit,” 10/19/14

- “Security forces liberate some areas central Ramadi,” 10/21/14

- “Urgent ….. IA control Hajaj village northern Tikrit,” 10/20/14

- "Urgent…Karrada explosion casualties increase," 10/17/14

Alsumaria, "Killing and wounding 22 in the bombing targeting homes north of Tikrit," 10/18/14

- "Renewed clashes between son of Jabour and Daash organization in Dhuluiya," 10/16/14

Associated Press, "Suicide, car bombings in Iraq kill at least 43," 10/20/14

Buratha News, "Baghdad operations confirms the martyrdom and wounding of 50 people in Habayebna," 10/21/14

- “Desert road link between Jurf al-Sakhr and Amiriyat Fallujah Secured,” 10/20/14

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- "The proceeds of the third car bombing 21 martyrs and wounded," 10/21/14

- “Salah al-Din police chief: military units reached the outskirts of Baiji,” 10/21/14

Al Forat, "70 ISIL terrorists killed, injured in failed attack at Baiji refinery," 10/15/14

- “ISF storm Mazra village of Tikrit,” 10/21/14

- “Official: Wide military operation targeting Baiji & Tikrit while Samarra under control,” 10/16/14

- “Salah al-Din: Wide security operation launched from all sides to liberate Tikrit,” 10/21/14

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- “Joint force initiates process to cleanse Ramadi and its surroundings from Daash with support of international air coalition,” 10/15/14

- “Jurf al-Sakhr: Daash use Euphrates River..and 100 militants turned themselves in,” 10/21/14

- "The killing of five farmers including a woman in wrong aerial bombardment in Hit," 10/20/14

- “Lost control of Ramadi..and “Daash” supplied with military arsenal including tanks from Hit camp,” 10/15/14

- “Purge supply routes for the security forces in the area north of Ramadi,” 10/19/14

- "Violent attacks on people and expected dead and wounded at 85," 10/21/14

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- "Breaking News../11/ people killed and wounded in the explosion of a third car bomb in al-Talibiya," 10/21/14

- "Breaking News../21/ people killed and wounded in the explosion of Mahmudiyah," 10/16/14

- "Breaking News..Nine soldier and the sons of the tribes killed and wounded in a suicide attack in central Ramadi," 10/16/14

- "The death toll of victims of the bomb in Sulekh rose to 22 people killed and wounded," 10/17/14

- "IS Executes Nine, Kidnapped Six Others In Qara Tabba, Northeast of Baquba," 10/20/14

- “Military Reinforcements arrive to the Haditha and Ain al-Assad in Anbar,” 10/18/14

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