Over 1,100 Casualties In Iraq 1st Week of October 2014

 

Attacks and casualties have gone down since the height of the insurgent summer offensive. They were still extremely high with just over 1,100 dead and wounded from October 1-7, 2014. There has been intense fighting in Anbar and Salahaddin where the Islamic State is on the offensive with the former largely falling under its control during the week. Baghdad is feeling more threatened as a result and the government is carrying out more security sweeps in the belts as a result. The Kurdish peshmerga are also trying to cut into the Islamic State’s hold in Diyala and Ninewa, but has only made progress in the latter. Despite the decrease in security statistics they only tell half the story as security is still very precarious and the insurgents continue to hold the initiative.

The number of attacks at the start of October was the same as September. There were 169 security incidents reported in the press from October 1-7. That averaged out to 24.1 per day. That nearly matched September’s average of 22.9, and was down from August’s 26.8 and July’s 29.7. Salahaddin where there has been heavy fighting since June led the week with 52 attacks followed by 39 in Anbar as the Islamic State seized the center of the province. There were only 27 incidents in Baghdad, which tied for the lowest amount of any week this year. After that there were 17 in Diyala, 11 each in Ninewa and Kirkuk, 10 in Babil, and two in Basra.

For the week there were 451 killed and 687 wounded. The former was made up of 158 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 21 Sahwa, 8 Peshmerga, and 264 civilians, while the latter consisted of 119 ISF, 26 Sahwa, 12 Peshmerga, and 530 civilians. Anbar had the most deaths with 145, followed by 116 in Salahaddin, 77 in Baghdad, 53 in Ninewa, 41 in Diyala, 17 in Babil and 2 in Kirkuk. The actual figures are much higher than what gets in the press.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	733
Jan 8-14	272	364	676
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,880
Feb 1-7	204	296	700
Feb 8-14	226	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	346	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	618
FEB	945	1,274	2,526
Mar 1-7	253	412	702
Mar 8-14	206	324	612
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	110	168	271
MAR	996	1,606	2,901
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	223	362	646
Apr 15-21	251	406	786
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	999	1,456	2,905
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	469	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	204	407	817
May 29-31	63	90	132
MAY	905	1,468	2,610
Jun 1-7	224	588	1,021
Jun 8-14	227	1,238	891
Jun 15-21	171	758	754
Jun 22-28	200	720	775
Jun 29-30	56	127	236
JUN	878	3,431	3,677
Jul 1-7	200	511	622
Jul 8-14	211	577	625
Jul 15-21	225	398	1,000
Jul 22-28	222	549	801
Jul 29-31	65	162	230
JUL	923	2,197	3,278
Aug 1-8	268	1,121	885
Aug 9-14	178	709	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	178	523	798
Aug 29-31	58	118	289
AUG	832	2,825	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	932	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	44	110	241
SEP	687	2,673	3,036
Oct 1-7	169	451	687

Violence In Iraq By Province Oct 1-7, 2014

Province	Violence
Anbar	39 Incidents 145 Killed: 78 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 54 Civilians 136 Wounded: 43 ISF, 7 Sahwa, 86 Civilians 27 Shootings 5 IEDs 3 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers
Babil	10 Incidents 17 Killed: 3 ISF, 14 Civilians 64 Wounded: 4 ISF, 60 Civilians 1 Shooting 7 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	27 Incidents 77 Killed: 3 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 72 Civilians 212 Wounded: 3 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 207 Civilians 4 Shootings 11 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Basra	2 Incidents 1 IED
Diyala	17 Incidents 41 Killed: 30 ISF, 8 Peshmerga, 3 Civilians 34 Wounded: 20 ISF, 8 Peshmerga, 2 Sahwa, 4 Civilians 12 Shootings 5 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers
Kirkuk	11 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 24 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 20 Civilians 3 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Ninewa	11 Incidents 53 Killed: 53 Civilians 5 Shootings 1 IED
Salahaddin	52 Incidents 116 Killed: 44 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 66 Civilians 217 Wounded: 49 ISF, 15 Sahwa, 153 Civilians 25 Shootings 33 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 5 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers

The start of October saw the end of the latest car bomb wave by the Islamic State and perhaps the start of a new one. From September 30 to October 4, the Islamists launched 16 car bombs in Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Diyala, Karbala, and Salahaddin. There was then a two day break before five car bombs went off on October 7. Since September IS has been setting off car bombs five days out of every week.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Oct 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct. 1	New Baghdad, Baghdad	17	59
Oct. 2	Hit x3, Anbar Great Dam, Diyala Balad, Salahaddin	46	35
Oct. 3	Outside Samarrra & Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	3	8
Oct. 4	Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin	12	24
Oct. 5
Oct. 6
Oct. 7	Hit, Anbar Mashtal & Arboretum, Baghdad Abassid & Amerli, Salahaddin	40	78
Totals	15	118	204

Casualties From Government Shelling & Air Strikes In Iraq Oct. 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct. 1	Fallujah, Anbar		6
Oct. 3	Fallujah, Anbar	4	11
Oct. 4	Rabad, Salaahddin	3	5
Oct. 6	Hit, Anbar	15
	Fallujah, Anbar	1	8
	Rabia, Ninewa	12
Oct. 7	Fallujah, Anbar	3	5
	Khalidiya, Anbar	5	7
Totals	-	43	42

Anbar was the site of the latest security collapse by the ISF. Starting on October 2 IS launched attacks upon Hit to the west of Ramadi starting with a series of car and suicide bombs, and then it swept through the rest of the center of the province. On October 6 the U.S. led coalition had an air strike on Hit to try to slow the insurgents, but struck a market instead killing 22 civilians and wounding 43. Today it appears that with the exception of Haditha and Habbaniya, the security forces and the tribes aligned with it have lost control of all the major urban centers and most of the surrounding towns in the province. They are trying to re-enter these areas, but have not proven successful so far. IS on the other hand has shifted back west to try to take Haditha, which it laid siege to for several weeks starting in August. The ISF continues to shell Fallujah and other towns in the governorate as well. Fallujah, Hit and Khalidiya were all hit by indiscriminate fire from October 1-7 costing the lives of 28 people and wounding another 37. Anbar is where open fighting against the government originally started at the end of December. It took ten months, but the insurgents now have de facto control over most of it.

IS was able to sweep through most of central Anbar at the start of Oct taking Hit and Ramadi and is now going after Haditha again to the west. It already controls the area from Qaim to Rawa and Fallujah. (Institute for the Study of War)

The security forces and militias are still in the midst of their thirteenth sweep through northern Babil. October 4 the head of the Babil Operations Command said that they were starting the second phase of the operation in Jurf al-Sakhr claiming they had already cut the supply lines linking the province with neighboring Amiriya Fallujah in Anbar. Two days later Sadr’s Peace Brigades claimed it had cleared the lakes region around Iskandiriya. The government and its allies have not been able to maintain security in any of these areas since January. Twelve operations later there’s no sign the current one will turn out any different.

(BBC)

The threat to Baghdad is growing. With the fall of most of Anbar the western section of the capital province is now the next battlefront. McClatchy Newspapers reported that Abu Ghraib already has a strong IS presence. A soldier interviewed said that the 10^th Division there was afraid to leave its base. The authorities are aware of this growing menace and are launching more and more operations in the belts. On October 5 Premier Haider Abadi observed a security sweep in Banat al-Hassan for example. Baghdad is vulnerable from the south as well where the Islamic State has expanded its area of operations and consistently attacked places like Madain and Dora in the capital itself. The insurgents can be expected to increase their activity in Baghdad in the coming weeks and months as they ultimately want to restart street battles there to try to overthrow the government.

Diyala appears to be a mixed bag. The security forces and militias have been carrying out several operations in the central part of the province in areas around Mansuriya and Muqtadiya. The Islamic State has responded by flooding areas to impede the movement of the ISF. On October 7 it released water from a dam north of Muqtadiya for instance to protect several villages that it controlled. The peshmerga are still attempting to build up their forces in northeastern Diyala after Jalawla was taken by IS. They have freed several small villages, but not made any real thrust at Jalawla itself yet. Finally, both the ISF and peshmerga have recently gone into the Hamrin area claiming success. There have still been clashes there afterward however. On October 4 13 soldiers were killed at the Hamrin Dam in an IS attack. The on going violence points to the insurgents still having a presence there.

The start of October saw no real terrorist attacks upon Kirkuk City, which had been the main target of insurgents. Fighting shifted to Daquq and Riyad. October 3 a police station in the latter was hit by an IED, and then an army base was struck on October 6. There was mortar fire on Daquq on October 4 and 5. Still the overall number of attacks remained low in the province, although plenty more might have likely happened but not gotten into the Iraqi press.

Fighting has shifted to eastern Kirkuk and Daquq district recently (Wikipedia)

In Ninewa Mosul remains under IS control, but it is suffering setbacks in other areas of the province. In Mosul the Islamic State continues to conduct trials and executions. From October 5-7 IS killed 24 people in Mosul and another 15 in Baaj. At the same time, the peshmerga and the Shammar tribe have recaptured the Rabia area long the Syrian border. October 2 the Shammar clan claimed to have cleared the entire area. Rabia is a major border crossing between Iraq and Syria, which fell to IS shortly after Mosul was taken in June. The peshmerga are also fighting to take back villages in the Zummar area. Ninewa is one of the places in Iraq where IS is losing territory.  

(Wikipedia)

The heaviest fighting in Iraq continues in Salahaddin. The ISF, militias and peshmerga have all been operating to clear the Tuz Kharmato district of eastern Salahaddin after they worked together to free Amerli. The ISF recently broke the siege of Dhuluiya as well, where local police and tribes had held out for weeks against repeated insurgent attacks. Where militias are operating they have carried out retaliatory attacks upon locals Sunnis, and are getting into some skirmishes with the peshmerga as well as each group wants to assert control over the area. On the other hand, IS have been carrying out renewed attacks on the Baiji Refinery. October 3 a Iraqi Army Mi-35 helicopter was shot down in that area. At the end of September the militants were moving into southern Salahaddin to try to cut off the ISF’s supply lines to Baghdad. Nothing was reported on that area for the week. The province remains the main point of contention between the insurgents and the government forces and many areas are likely to go back and forth in the coming months.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, "Iraqi police officials; Baghdad car bomb kills 13," Associated Press, 10/7/14

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim and Salama, Vivian, “Officials: Islamic State group downs Iraqi chopper,” Associated Press, 10/3/14

Agence France Presse, "Suicide car bomb attack kills 17 in Iraq: police, doctor," 10/7/14

Alsumaria, "Wounding four civilians in the fall of mortars south of Kirkuk," 10/4/14

Buratha News, "Army troops and Popular Brigades repel an attack by Daash and kill six of them near the Great Dam," 10/2/14

- “Babylon operations: start of the second phase of the liberation of Jurf al-Sakhr after cutting the supply lines to Anbar,” 10/4/14

Al Forat, “9 Terrorists of ISIL killed in Dholoaya,” 10/6/14

- “Dholueau fully purged of terrorists,” 10/3/14

- "ISIL attack targeting Tikrit University foiled," 10/4/14

Independent Press Agency, "4 killed and 15 people injured by a roadside bomb near a garage in Arboretum east of Baghdad," 10/7/14

Iraq Times, "The martyrdom of 13 soldiers in an attack by Daash terrorists near the Hamrin Dam," 10/4/14

Al Mada, “Administration Anbar: Daash controls limited areas of Ramadi and military operations are continuing to expel them,” 10/6/14

- "Injuring eight people including peshmerga by mortar attack south of Kirkuk," 10/5/14

- "Killing and injuring eight people from one family in wrong aerial bombardment east of Tikrit," 10/4/14

- "Killing and wounding 12 civilians in the army bombing in eastern Ramadi," 10/7/14

Al Masalah, "Casualties of Popular brigades volunteers blown up by a suicide car bomb in Balad," 10/2/14

- “Peace Brigades announces the liberation of parts of the lakes area and through the Green believe to free the entire north of Babylon,” 10/6/14

NINA, "14 people killed and wounded due to indiscriminate pounding on Fallujah," 10/4/14

- "36 civilians killed and injured, north of Tikrit," 10/5/14

- “Army regains control of Khazraj and Aljisir areas near Dhuluiya of Salahuddin,” 10/3/14

- "BREAKING NEWS. 11/policemen killed and wounded in a suicide attack west of Tikrit," 10/3/14

- “Breaking News….Army, backed by tribesmen, foil armed attack on Haditha district, in Anbar,” 10/7/14

- "Car bomb, followed by an armed attack, in Hit district, west of Ramadi, Anbar province," 10/7/14

- “Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces oversees the process of cleansing Banat al-Hassan area,” 10/5/14

- "Eight civilians killed and wounded by bombing on Fallujah," 10/7/14

- “Four villages liberated in the district of Tuz from the IS control,” 10/3/14

- “The IS drown two villages north of Muqdadiyah in Diyala,” 10/7/14

- "The IS militants blow up police station in Riyadh area west of Kirkuk," 10/3/14

- “Joint Forces Liberate Five Villages West of Tuz,” 10/1/14

- "MP for Mosul condemns the indiscriminate shelling of aircraft and calls for accuracy in striking the terrorists gatherings," 10/6/14

- "One civilian killed, 8 others wounded by bombing on Fallujah," 10/6/14

- "The outcome of the bombing of New Baghdad 17 martyrs and 59 wounded," 10/1/14

- “Peshmerga liberated a village near Jalula,” 10/4/14

- “Shammar tribe liberated Rabia area completely from the IS,” 10/2/14

- “A source in the Peshmerga: Our personnel liberated a number of villages in the outskirts of Zammar northwest of Mosul,” 10/7/14

Prothero, Mitchell, “Islamic State reportedly on Baghdad’s outskirts after week of victories,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/3/14

Radio Free Iraq, "01 October 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar," 10/1/14

- “06 October 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, “ 10/6/14

- "IS Militants Send Waves of Suicide Bombers at Iraqi Posts," 10/2/14

Radio Nawa, "The killing and wounding of nine elements of the Badr Organization in a suicide bombing east of Tikrit," 10/7/14

Al Rayy, "Daash undermines the 47th Brigade headquarters in Kirkuk," 10/6/14

- "Martyrdom of four volunteers from Popular Brigades and wounding three in bombing south of Tikrit," 10/2/14

Shafaq News, “Roadsides of ISIS stop the progress of Security forces and fighters in liberated areas of Dhuluiya,” 10/6/14

van den Toorn, Christine, Lacky, Shwan, "Shootout between 'allies' underscores Iraq divisions," Iraq Oil Report, 10/8/14