Attacks Way Down In Iraq While Security Forces Continue Advances 2nd Week of November 2014

The second week of November 2014 saw a large drop in reported security incidents while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continued to advance on several fronts. Attacks have been declining for two months now. Despite that drop casualties remained around the same level as previous weeks. In Anbar the Islamic State (IS) continued its executions of the Albu Nimr tribe while the ISF and tribes were preparing for a major offensive. In Diyala the security forces freed another water system from insurgent control. The big move happened in Salahaddin however where the ISF entered the Baiji district north of Tikrit. Overall the militants are slowly losing territory to government forces.

From November 8-14 there were just 127 reported security incidents. That was the lowest of any week of the year, surpassing the 150 seen from August 15-21. Baghdad had the most attacks at 41. That was followed by 24 in Salahaddin, 19 in Anbar, 12 in Ninewa, 9 in Babil, Diyala and Kirkuk each, two each in Basra and Maysan, and one in Qadisiyah. Attacks were down 50% in Salahaddin and 35% in Anbar accounting for the week’s decline.

The drop in incidents did not affect the number of casualties. There were 420 killed, made up of 68 members of the Iraqi Security Forces, 5 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa, and 343 civilians. Baghdad led the way amongst the provinces with 145 dead, followed by 107 in Anbar, 74 in Salahaddin, 26 in Ninewa, 31 in Kirkuk, 18 in Diyala, 16 in Babil, and one each in Basra, Maysan and Qadisiyah. Another 593 were wounded made up of 120 ISF, 20 Peshmerga, 10 Asayesh, 6 Sahwa, and 437 civilians.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	736
Jan 8-14	273	364	683
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,015	1,483	2,890
Feb 1-7	204	296	700
Feb 8-14	226	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	346	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	618
FEB	945	1,274	2,526
Mar 1-7	253	412	702
Mar 8-14	206	324	612
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	110	168	271
MAR	996	1,606	2,901
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	223	362	646
Apr 15-21	251	406	786
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	999	1,456	2,905
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	469	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	204	407	817
May 29-31	64	90	132
MAY	906	1,468	2,610
Jun 1-7	228	631	1,021
Jun 8-14	233	1,893	891
Jun 15-21	178	803	759
Jun 22-28	206	740	800
Jun 29-30	56	127	236
JUN	901	4,194	3,707
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	213	577	625
Jul 15-21	227	440	1,000
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	933	2,295	3,307
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	178	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	835	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	567
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	797	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593

Violence In Iraq By Province Nov 2014

Province	Nov 1-7	Nov 8-14
Anbar	29 Incidents 290 Killed: 12 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 275 Civilians 191 Wounded: 28 ISF, 163 Civilians 14 Shootings 2 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb	19 Incidents 107 Killed: 9 ISF, 98 Civilians 62 Wounded: 11 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 51 Civilians 9 Shootings 1 IED 1 Car Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil	11 Incidents 30 Killed: 5 ISF, 25 Civilians 84 Wounded: 5 ISF, 79 Civilians 3 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs	9 Incidents 16 Killed: 7 ISF, 9 Civilians 48 Wounded: 21 ISF, 27 Civilians 1 Shooting 5 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad	41 Incidents 172 Killed: 14 ISF, 158 Civilians 389 Wounded: 9 ISF, 380 Civilians 10 Shootings 22 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 4 Car Bombs 2 Suicide Car Bombs	41 Incidents 145 Killed: 12 ISF, 133 Civilians 359 Wounded: 24 ISF, 335 Civilians 9 Shootings 16 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 8 Car Bombs 4 Suicide Car Bombs
Basra	1 Incident	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Diyala	7 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 5 Wounded: 4 ISF, 1 Civilian 5 Shootings 2 IEDs	9 Incidents 18 Killed: 5 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 10 Civilians 47 Wounded: 24 ISF, 10 Asayesh, 133 Civilians 4 Shootings 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Car Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk	3 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 8 Wounded: 8 Civilians 2 Shootings 2 IEDs	9 Incidents 31 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 30 Civilians 24 Wounded: 20 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians 7 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Maysan	-	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 Stun Bomb
Ninewa	11 Incidents 13 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians 9 Shootings 1 IED	12 Incidents 26 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 22 Civilians 5 Shootings
Qadisiyah	-	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Salahaddin	49 Incidents 87 Killed: 31 ISF, 56 Civilians 136 Wounded: 75 ISF, 61 Civilians 15 Shootings 73 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 4 Suicide Car Bombs	24 Incidents 74 Killed: 35 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 38 Civilians 51 Wounded: 40 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 7 Civilians 9 Shootings 26 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs
Wasit	1 Incident 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 15 Wounded: 2 ISF, 13 Civilians	-

 

The second week of November saw the end of the latest car bomb wave and the start of another. There were six vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) on November 8 hitting Anbar and Baghdad costing the lives of 42 people and wounding another 125. That ended a wave that began on November 5 and consisted of 14 car bombs in total. There was then a two day break before the next one started on November 11 with attacks on Baghdad, Kirkuk and Salahaddin. For the week there were 23 VBIEDs killing 159 and injuring 336. Last month IS dramatically increased the number of car bombs after a summer reprieve. November looks like it will have a large amount of these types of attacks as well with 39 so far.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Nov 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Nov 1	Yusifiya, Babil Dora & Palestine St, Baghdad	47	119
Nov 2	Yusifiya, Babil Bayaa, Sadoun St, Sadr City, Baghdad	38	103
Nov 3	Tunis, Baghdad	36
Nov 4
Nov 5	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	4	7
Nov 6	Hit & Baghdadi, Anbar Baiji, Salahaddin	18	26
Nov 7	Baghdadi, Anbar Baiji x3, Salahaddin	11	30
1st Wk Totals	16	154	285
Nov 8	Southeast of Hit, Anbar Sadr City, Amin, Amil x2 & Zafaraniya, Baghdad	42	125
Nov 9
Nov 10
Nov 11	Shaab, Baghdad Kirkuk, Kirkuk Tarmiya, Salahaddin	36	27
Nov 12	Yusifiya, Babil Mansour x2 & Rasheed, Baghdad Edheim, Diyala	26	68
Nov 13	Mamil, Baghdad Bani Saad & Kirfri, Diyala	13	33
Nov 14	Ramadi x2, Anbar Adhamiya & Morocco St, Baghdad Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin	42	83
2nd Wk Totals	23	159	336

Civilian Casualties From Government Shelling And Air Strikes Nov 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Nov 1	Fallujah, Anbar	5	2
Nov 2	Fallujah, Anbar		7
Nov 3	Fallujah, Anbar	3	11
Nov 4	Fallujah, Anbar	2	13
	Qaim, Anbar	7	33
Nov 5	Fallujah, Anbar	9	23
	Qaim, Anbar	3	14
Nov 6	Fallujah, Anbar	18	25
-	-	47	128
Nov 9	Fallujah, Anbar	3	11
Nov 10	Shirqat, Salahaddin	15
Nov 11	Fallujah, Anbar	3	17
Nov 12	Fallujah, Anbar		7
	Mosul, Ninewa	15
Nov 13	Fallujah, Anbar	2	5
Nov 14	Fallujah, Anbar	2	7
-	-	40	47

After the insurgency’s surge in central Anbar in October, the ISF and tribes have been preparing for a major counter attack. That hasn’t emerged yet, but they are carrying out preparatory moves. Starting on November 8, the 17^th, 14^th and 6^th Divisions, along with the Federal Police, and militias began clearing the southeast quadrant of the province below Amiriya Fallujah heading towards Karbala. In the center, the 7^th Division and tribes continued sweeps through the towns outside of Hit. November 13 operations began in eastern, southern and western sections of Ramadi as well to regain territory lost last month. Tribes also claimed to have infiltrated into a few areas of Fallujah and began fighting IS there on November 13. At the same time, IS executed 70 members of the Albu Nimr tribe on November 9 and 16 more on November 13. In total the tribe has lost 581 members since October 29. At first, these were retaliatory killings by the Islamic State for the tribe fighting against it. Now the group is claiming they will shoot more if the ISF makes a move on Hit.

In Diyala the ISF carried out two operations. The first successfully cleared the Edheim Dam area. IS took over several irrigation systems in the province in June and the security forces have been trying to retake them since then. This was the second dam cleared so far in the center of the governorate. At the same time, the ISF and militias began another move into the Hamrin area. The government and the peshmerga claimed they had cleared this mountainous region before, but it is a long time insurgent base and the militants probably moved right back in after the security forces left.

The Kurds continued to say that they are going to free the Sinjar area of Ninewa province, but they have made only slow progress. On November 13 it took two more villages in the area, which were Yazidi towns, but Sinjar remains under IS control and Mount Sinjar is still surrounded as well. The Kurds may be waiting until they receive more heavy equipment and their training by foreign military advisers is finished before they make a real move upon Sinjar.

Finally, Salahaddin has been the main focus of the government the last few weeks. The ISF and militias have been moving into the Baiji district. There has been steady progress there, but how much has been marred by propaganda coming out of ISF and government sources. For example, on November 8 it was reported that the entire district had been cleared when the refinery hadn’t even been reached yet. November 11 General Abdul Wahab al-Saidi ordered the militias away from the front lines due to their attacks upon Sunni families and homes, but that ordered didn’t seem to be followed. On the positive side, central Baiji was reached on November 11, and then the ISF got to the refinery by November 14 although there was still fighting going on there. The goal of this operation was to not only relieve the siege of the refinery, but to cut off insurgents in Tikrit from their northern supply lines. If that was achieved most of the governorate would be freed from militant control.

In other parts of the province mass displacement is still going on. In Hawi east of Tikrit IS told the Jabour tribe they had to leave or be killed since parts of the tribe were fighting it. On November 10 it was reported that around 200 families had fled the area as a result. In Yingije in the eastern section of the province militias were burning homes and keeping Sunnis out. There was also a clash between the militias and peshmerga in the town resulting in one militiamen being killed, and 6 peshmerga being taken by the Shiite gunmen. For weeks now militias have been going town to town pushing out Sunnis because they are blamed for supporting the insurgency. The militias and Kurds are also vying for control of the Tuz Kharmato district, which has led to a number of clashes and deaths as well.

SOURCES

AIN, “Military Operation starts in al-Adheim Dam area,” 11/12/14

Alsumaria, "Two dead and six wounded from the army outcome of suicide bombing south of Baghdad," 11/12/14

Associated Press, "Iraq: 17 killed in bombings in and around Baghdad," 11/12/14

Alsumaria, "Two dead and six wounded from the army outcome of suicide bombing south of Baghdad," 11/12/14

BBC, “Iraq troops ‘push Islamic State from oil town of Baiji,’” 11/14/14

- “Islamic state crisis; US troops sent into Iraq’s Anbar,” 11/11/14

Al Forat, “ISF fully liberate Baiji district form ISIL terrorists,” 11/8/14

- "ISF thwart ISIL attack at Tikrit University, 15 terrorists killed," 11/14/14

- “MoD declares purifying Adhem Dam of terrorists,” 11/14/14

Hawramy, Fazel and Harding, Luke, “Shia militia fightback against Isis sees tit-for-tat sectarian massacres of Sunnis,” Guardian, 11/12/14

Hendawi, Hamza and Heliprin, John, “Iraq’s forces drive IS militants from key town,” Associated Press, 11/14/14

Independent Press Agency, “Liberation strategic areas between Baghdadi and Hit,” 11/10/14

Iraq Times, "Martyrdom and wounding of 13 peshmerga suicide bombing northeast of Baquba," 11/13/14

- "martyrs and injured in the bombing of Baghdad's Shammai 47," 11/14/14

Al Mada, "Bombing toll rises to 44 dead and wounded in Amil district," 11/8/14

- “Joint forces have surrounded Barwana west of Ramadi,” 11/14/14

- "Killed and wounded 14 people by a car bomb southeast of Baghdad," 11/8/14

- "The killing of a senior officer and wounding 12 soldiers blown up targeting a gathering of the security forces north of Baquba," 11/12/14

- "Morocco Street bombing toll rises to 46 people dead and wounded east of Baghdad," 11/14/14

Al Masalah, "The death of 11 civilians and wounding 43 in a car bombing in eastern Baghdad," 11/8/14

- "Martyrdom of three civilians and wounding 11 in a car bombing in the Shaab district," 11/11/14

Millet Press, "Suicide Car Bomb Explodes in Kirkuk," 11/11/14

NINA, "15 Civilians, Including Women& Children, Killed In Mosul In Air Strike," 11/12/14

- "/15/ civilians, including women and children, killed in bombing targeted their homes north of Tikrit," 11/10/14

- "Breaking News../17/ soldiers killed and /5/ others wounded by a tanker bomb in Tikrit," 11/14/14

- "Breaking News..Death toll of the bombing of a car bomb in al-Sinaa Street rose to 37 people killed and wounded, and another car bomb exploded in Sadr City," 11/8/14

- “Breaking News..Liberating the wells regions and Karbala – Anbar road from the IS control,” 11/13/14

- “Breaking News..The start of a security and wide crackdown for the Liberation of Hit and its cities of the IS control,” 11/8/14

- "Death toll of the bombing in Bani Saad, south of Baquba rises to ten wounded," 11/13/14

- "Martyrdom of three civilians and wounding 11 in a car bombing in the Shaab district," 11/11/14

- “A military operation started to liberate the Hamrin basin areas in Diyala of the IS control,” 11/13/14

- “Peshmerga restore control over two villages west of Sinjar,” 11/13/14

- “Security forces cleansed al-Rifush area and progressing towards Amiriyat al-Fallujah,” 11/8/14

- “A security source: A Military Operation To Cleanse Agricultural Area south of Baquba,” 11/11/14

- "Seven civilians killed and wounded in indiscriminate shelling on Fallujah," 11/13/14

- “The start of a security crackdown to liberate Ramadi from the control of the IS,” 11/14/14

- "Three civilians killed, 17 others wounded in renewed bombardment on Fallujah," 11/11/14

-"Three soldiers killed, 16 others wounded by a suicide attack north of Baghdad," 11/11/14

- “Tribesmen infiltrate in Fallujah and are fighting with the IS and kill five elements of them,” 11/13/14

- "A woman and a child killed, /7/ others wounded in bombing on neighborhoods in Fallujah," 11/14/14

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "At least 15 Killed In Baghdad Bombings," 11/12/14

Radio Free Iraq, "08 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/8/14

- "09 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/9/14

- "12 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/12/14

- “13 November 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/13/14

Rasheed, Ahmed, “To ease Sunni fears, Iraq orders Shi’ite militias back from front line,” Reuters, 11/10/14

Al Rayy, “Anbar: cleanse Hit and Albu Nimr of Daash militants,” 11/14/14

- "Bridge collapse after car bombs targeted it," 11/14/14

Reuters, "Bomb attacks kill 23 people in Iraq," 11/12/14

Shafaq News, “ISIS gives al-Jabour in Hawi town hours or death,” 11/10/14