Monday, November 17, 2014

Attacks Way Down In Iraq While Security Forces Continue Advances 2nd Week of November 2014


The second week of November 2014 saw a large drop in reported security incidents while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continued to advance on several fronts. Attacks have been declining for two months now. Despite that drop casualties remained around the same level as previous weeks. In Anbar the Islamic State (IS) continued its executions of the Albu Nimr tribe while the ISF and tribes were preparing for a major offensive. In Diyala the security forces freed another water system from insurgent control. The big move happened in Salahaddin however where the ISF entered the Baiji district north of Tikrit. Overall the militants are slowly losing territory to government forces.

From November 8-14 there were just 127 reported security incidents. That was the lowest of any week of the year, surpassing the 150 seen from August 15-21. Baghdad had the most attacks at 41. That was followed by 24 in Salahaddin, 19 in Anbar, 12 in Ninewa, 9 in Babil, Diyala and Kirkuk each, two each in Basra and Maysan, and one in Qadisiyah. Attacks were down 50% in Salahaddin and 35% in Anbar accounting for the week’s decline.

The drop in incidents did not affect the number of casualties. There were 420 killed, made up of 68 members of the Iraqi Security Forces, 5 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa, and 343 civilians. Baghdad led the way amongst the provinces with 145 dead, followed by 107 in Anbar, 74 in Salahaddin, 26 in Ninewa, 31 in Kirkuk, 18 in Diyala, 16 in Babil, and one each in Basra, Maysan and Qadisiyah. Another 593 were wounded made up of 120 ISF, 20 Peshmerga, 10 Asayesh, 6 Sahwa, and 437 civilians.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
244
363
736
Jan 8-14
273
364
683
Jan 15-21
205
358
616
Jan 22-28
236
305
618
Jan 29-31
57
93
237
JAN
1,015
1,483
2,890
Feb 1-7
204
296
700
Feb 8-14
226
258
505
Feb 15-21
264
346
703
Feb 22-28
251
374
618
FEB
945
1,274
2,526
Mar 1-7
253
412
702
Mar 8-14
206
324
612
Mar 15-21
216
423
736
Mar 22-27
211
279
580
Mar 28-31
110
168
271
MAR
996
1,606
2,901
Apr 1-7
238
259
550
Apr 8-14
223
362
646
Apr 15-21
251
406
786
Apr 22-28
226
347
744
Apr 29-30
61
82
179
APR
999
1,456
2,905
May 1-7
198
246
483
May 8-14
257
469
752
May 15-21
183
256
426
May 22-28
204
407
817
May 29-31
64
90
132
MAY
906
1,468
2,610
Jun 1-7
228
631
1,021
Jun 8-14
233
1,893
891
Jun 15-21
178
803
759
Jun 22-28
206
740
800
Jun 29-30
56
127
236
JUN
901
4,194
3,707
Jul 1-7
203
526
651
Jul 8-14
213
577
625
Jul 15-21
227
440
1,000
Jul 22-28
224
589
801
Jul 29-31
66
163
230
JUL
933
2,295
3,307
Aug 1-8
269
1,122
885
Aug 9-14
179
710
1,152
Aug 15-21
150
354
499
Aug 22-28
178
523
798
Aug 29-31
59
125
289
AUG
835
2,834
3,623
Sep 1-7
168
616
751
Sep 8-14
156
433
722
Sep 15-21
166
620
749
Sep 22-28
153
395
567
Sep 29-30
47
112
252
SEP
690
2,176
3,047
Oct 1-7
170
451
687
Oct 8-14
188
532
875
Oct 15-21
156
449
770
Oct 22-28
159
345
592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31
68
570
227
OCT
797
2,347
3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7
153
601
828
Nov 8-14
128
420
593

Violence In Iraq By Province Nov 2014
Province
Nov 1-7
Nov 8-14
Anbar
29 Incidents
290 Killed: 12 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 275 Civilians
191 Wounded: 28 ISF, 163 Civilians
14 Shootings
2 Car Bombs
1 Suicide Car Bomb
19 Incidents
107 Killed: 9 ISF, 98 Civilians
62 Wounded: 11 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 51 Civilians
9 Shootings
1 IED
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil
11 Incidents
30 Killed: 5 ISF, 25 Civilians
84 Wounded: 5 ISF, 79 Civilians
3 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Car Bombs
9 Incidents
16 Killed: 7 ISF, 9 Civilians
48 Wounded: 21 ISF, 27 Civilians
1 Shooting
5 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad
41 Incidents
172 Killed: 14 ISF, 158 Civilians
389 Wounded: 9 ISF, 380 Civilians
10 Shootings
22 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Car Bombs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
41 Incidents
145 Killed: 12 ISF, 133 Civilians
359 Wounded: 24 ISF, 335 Civilians
9 Shootings
16 IEDs
3 Sticky Bombs
8 Car Bombs
4 Suicide Car Bombs
Basra
1 Incident
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Diyala
7 Incidents
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
5 Wounded: 4 ISF, 1 Civilian
5 Shootings
2 IEDs
9 Incidents
18 Killed: 5 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 10 Civilians
47 Wounded: 24 ISF, 10 Asayesh, 133 Civilians
4 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk
3 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
8 Wounded: 8 Civilians
2 Shootings
2 IEDs
9 Incidents
31 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 30 Civilians
24 Wounded: 20 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians
7 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Car Bomb
Maysan
-
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
1 Stun Bomb
Ninewa
11 Incidents
13 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians
9 Shootings
1 IED
12 Incidents
26 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 22 Civilians
5 Shootings
Qadisiyah
-
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Salahaddin
49 Incidents
87 Killed: 31 ISF, 56 Civilians
136 Wounded: 75 ISF, 61 Civilians
15 Shootings
73 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
4 Suicide Car Bombs
24 Incidents
74 Killed: 35 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 38 Civilians
51 Wounded: 40 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 7 Civilians
9 Shootings
26 IEDs
3 Suicide Car Bombs
Wasit
1 Incident
3 Killed: 3 Civilians
15 Wounded: 2 ISF, 13 Civilians
-
 
The second week of November saw the end of the latest car bomb wave and the start of another. There were six vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) on November 8 hitting Anbar and Baghdad costing the lives of 42 people and wounding another 125. That ended a wave that began on November 5 and consisted of 14 car bombs in total. There was then a two day break before the next one started on November 11 with attacks on Baghdad, Kirkuk and Salahaddin. For the week there were 23 VBIEDs killing 159 and injuring 336. Last month IS dramatically increased the number of car bombs after a summer reprieve. November looks like it will have a large amount of these types of attacks as well with 39 so far.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Nov 2014
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Nov 1
Yusifiya, Babil
Dora & Palestine St, Baghdad
47
119
Nov 2
Yusifiya, Babil
Bayaa, Sadoun St, Sadr City, Baghdad
38
103
Nov 3
Tunis, Baghdad
36

Nov 4



Nov 5
Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin
4
7
Nov 6
Hit & Baghdadi, Anbar
Baiji, Salahaddin
18
26
Nov 7
Baghdadi, Anbar
Baiji x3, Salahaddin
11
30
1st Wk Totals
16
154
285
Nov 8
Southeast of Hit, Anbar
Sadr City, Amin, Amil x2 & Zafaraniya, Baghdad
42
125
Nov 9



Nov 10



Nov 11
Shaab, Baghdad
Kirkuk, Kirkuk
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
36
27
Nov 12
Yusifiya, Babil
Mansour x2 & Rasheed, Baghdad
Edheim, Diyala
26
68
Nov 13
Mamil, Baghdad
Bani Saad & Kirfri, Diyala
13
33
Nov 14
Ramadi x2, Anbar
Adhamiya & Morocco St, Baghdad
Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin
42
83
2nd Wk Totals
23
159
336

Civilian Casualties From Government Shelling And Air Strikes Nov 2014
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Nov 1
Fallujah, Anbar
5
2
Nov 2
Fallujah, Anbar

7
Nov 3
Fallujah, Anbar
3
11
Nov 4
Fallujah, Anbar
2
13

Qaim, Anbar
7
33
Nov 5
Fallujah, Anbar
9
23

Qaim, Anbar
3
14
Nov 6
Fallujah, Anbar
18
25
-
-
47
128
Nov 9
Fallujah, Anbar
3
11
Nov 10
Shirqat, Salahaddin
15

Nov 11
Fallujah, Anbar
3
17
Nov 12
Fallujah, Anbar

7

Mosul, Ninewa
15

Nov 13
Fallujah, Anbar
2
5
Nov 14
Fallujah, Anbar
2
7
-
-
40
47



After the insurgency’s surge in central Anbar in October, the ISF and tribes have been preparing for a major counter attack. That hasn’t emerged yet, but they are carrying out preparatory moves. Starting on November 8, the 17th, 14th and 6th Divisions, along with the Federal Police, and militias began clearing the southeast quadrant of the province below Amiriya Fallujah heading towards Karbala. In the center, the 7th Division and tribes continued sweeps through the towns outside of Hit. November 13 operations began in eastern, southern and western sections of Ramadi as well to regain territory lost last month. Tribes also claimed to have infiltrated into a few areas of Fallujah and began fighting IS there on November 13. At the same time, IS executed 70 members of the Albu Nimr tribe on November 9 and 16 more on November 13. In total the tribe has lost 581 members since October 29. At first, these were retaliatory killings by the Islamic State for the tribe fighting against it. Now the group is claiming they will shoot more if the ISF makes a move on Hit.

In Diyala the ISF carried out two operations. The first successfully cleared the Edheim Dam area. IS took over several irrigation systems in the province in June and the security forces have been trying to retake them since then. This was the second dam cleared so far in the center of the governorate. At the same time, the ISF and militias began another move into the Hamrin area. The government and the peshmerga claimed they had cleared this mountainous region before, but it is a long time insurgent base and the militants probably moved right back in after the security forces left.

The Kurds continued to say that they are going to free the Sinjar area of Ninewa province, but they have made only slow progress. On November 13 it took two more villages in the area, which were Yazidi towns, but Sinjar remains under IS control and Mount Sinjar is still surrounded as well. The Kurds may be waiting until they receive more heavy equipment and their training by foreign military advisers is finished before they make a real move upon Sinjar.

Finally, Salahaddin has been the main focus of the government the last few weeks. The ISF and militias have been moving into the Baiji district. There has been steady progress there, but how much has been marred by propaganda coming out of ISF and government sources. For example, on November 8 it was reported that the entire district had been cleared when the refinery hadn’t even been reached yet. November 11 General Abdul Wahab al-Saidi ordered the militias away from the front lines due to their attacks upon Sunni families and homes, but that ordered didn’t seem to be followed. On the positive side, central Baiji was reached on November 11, and then the ISF got to the refinery by November 14 although there was still fighting going on there. The goal of this operation was to not only relieve the siege of the refinery, but to cut off insurgents in Tikrit from their northern supply lines. If that was achieved most of the governorate would be freed from militant control.

In other parts of the province mass displacement is still going on. In Hawi east of Tikrit IS told the Jabour tribe they had to leave or be killed since parts of the tribe were fighting it. On November 10 it was reported that around 200 families had fled the area as a result. In Yingije in the eastern section of the province militias were burning homes and keeping Sunnis out. There was also a clash between the militias and peshmerga in the town resulting in one militiamen being killed, and 6 peshmerga being taken by the Shiite gunmen. For weeks now militias have been going town to town pushing out Sunnis because they are blamed for supporting the insurgency. The militias and Kurds are also vying for control of the Tuz Kharmato district, which has led to a number of clashes and deaths as well.

SOURCES

AIN, “Military Operation starts in al-Adheim Dam area,” 11/12/14

Alsumaria, "Two dead and six wounded from the army outcome of suicide bombing south of Baghdad," 11/12/14

Associated Press, "Iraq: 17 killed in bombings in and around Baghdad," 11/12/14

Alsumaria, "Two dead and six wounded from the army outcome of suicide bombing south of Baghdad," 11/12/14

BBC, “Iraq troops ‘push Islamic State from oil town of Baiji,’” 11/14/14
- “Islamic state crisis; US troops sent into Iraq’s Anbar,” 11/11/14

Al Forat, “ISF fully liberate Baiji district form ISIL terrorists,” 11/8/14
- "ISF thwart ISIL attack at Tikrit University, 15 terrorists killed," 11/14/14
- “MoD declares purifying Adhem Dam of terrorists,” 11/14/14

Hawramy, Fazel and Harding, Luke, “Shia militia fightback against Isis sees tit-for-tat sectarian massacres of Sunnis,” Guardian, 11/12/14

Hendawi, Hamza and Heliprin, John, “Iraq’s forces drive IS militants from key town,” Associated Press, 11/14/14

Independent Press Agency, “Liberation strategic areas between Baghdadi and Hit,” 11/10/14

Iraq Times, "Martyrdom and wounding of 13 peshmerga suicide bombing northeast of Baquba," 11/13/14
- "martyrs and injured in the bombing of Baghdad's Shammai 47," 11/14/14

Al Mada, "Bombing toll rises to 44 dead and wounded in Amil district," 11/8/14
- “Joint forces have surrounded Barwana west of Ramadi,” 11/14/14
- "Killed and wounded 14 people by a car bomb southeast of Baghdad," 11/8/14
- "The killing of a senior officer and wounding 12 soldiers blown up targeting a gathering of the security forces north of Baquba," 11/12/14
- "Morocco Street bombing toll rises to 46 people dead and wounded east of Baghdad," 11/14/14

Al Masalah, "The death of 11 civilians and wounding 43 in a car bombing in eastern Baghdad," 11/8/14
- "Martyrdom of three civilians and wounding 11 in a car bombing in the Shaab district," 11/11/14

Millet Press, "Suicide Car Bomb Explodes in Kirkuk," 11/11/14

NINA, "15 Civilians, Including Women& Children, Killed In Mosul In Air Strike," 11/12/14
- "/15/ civilians, including women and children, killed in bombing targeted their homes north of Tikrit," 11/10/14
- "Breaking News../17/ soldiers killed and /5/ others wounded by a tanker bomb in Tikrit," 11/14/14
- "Breaking News..Death toll of the bombing of a car bomb in al-Sinaa Street rose to 37 people killed and wounded, and another car bomb exploded in Sadr City," 11/8/14
- “Breaking News..Liberating the wells regions and Karbala – Anbar road from the IS control,” 11/13/14
- “Breaking News..The start of a security and wide crackdown for the Liberation of Hit and its cities of the IS control,” 11/8/14
- "Death toll of the bombing in Bani Saad, south of Baquba rises to ten wounded," 11/13/14
- "Martyrdom of three civilians and wounding 11 in a car bombing in the Shaab district," 11/11/14
- “A military operation started to liberate the Hamrin basin areas in Diyala of the IS control,” 11/13/14
- “Peshmerga restore control over two villages west of Sinjar,” 11/13/14
- “Security forces cleansed al-Rifush area and progressing towards Amiriyat al-Fallujah,” 11/8/14
- “A security source: A Military Operation To Cleanse Agricultural Area south of Baquba,” 11/11/14
- "Seven civilians killed and wounded in indiscriminate shelling on Fallujah," 11/13/14
- “The start of a security crackdown to liberate Ramadi from the control of the IS,” 11/14/14
- "Three civilians killed, 17 others wounded in renewed bombardment on Fallujah," 11/11/14
-"Three soldiers killed, 16 others wounded by a suicide attack north of Baghdad," 11/11/14
- “Tribesmen infiltrate in Fallujah and are fighting with the IS and kill five elements of them,” 11/13/14
- "A woman and a child killed, /7/ others wounded in bombing on neighborhoods in Fallujah," 11/14/14

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "At least 15 Killed In Baghdad Bombings," 11/12/14

Radio Free Iraq, "08 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/8/14
- "09 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/9/14
- "12 November 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/12/14
- “13 November 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/13/14

Rasheed, Ahmed, “To ease Sunni fears, Iraq orders Shi’ite militias back from front line,” Reuters, 11/10/14

Al Rayy, “Anbar: cleanse Hit and Albu Nimr of Daash militants,” 11/14/14
- "Bridge collapse after car bombs targeted it," 11/14/14

Reuters, "Bomb attacks kill 23 people in Iraq," 11/12/14

Shafaq News, “ISIS gives al-Jabour in Hawi town hours or death,” 11/10/14

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