Displaced Returns Slow In Iraq

The displaced continue to return to their homes in Iraq, but the rate is drastically slowing down. The previous trend was that as soon as an area was cleared more and more people started to head back. That is now slowing, which gives rise to the warning made by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that many people may never make that trip.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that there were 2,045,718 displaced at the end of May 2018. Most of those people are in central to northern Iraq. There are 620,628 in Ninewa, 350,232 in Dohuk, 222,738 in Irbil, 184,854 in Salahaddin, 154,020 in Sulaymaniya, 133,770 in Kirkuk, 107,832 in Baghdad, 81,192 in Anbar, 64,674 in Diyala, and 25,794 in Babil for a total of 1,945,734. The remaining 99,984 were in the south distributed between Najaf, 30,396, Karbala, 27,018, Wasit, 13,164, Qadisiyah, 12,882, Basra, 8,046, Dhi Qar, 4,098, Maysan, 3,006, and Muthanna, 1,374.

On the other hand, 3,829,758 people have gone home. Ninewa has received the most returns with 1,416,804, followed by 1,254,654 to Anbar, 534,000 to Salahaddin, 286,462 to Kirkuk, 221,286 to Diyala, 77,046 to Baghdad, 38,736 to Irbil and 780 to Dohuk.

In 2017 when the war with the Islamic State ended there was a huge number of people heading back to their areas. By the end of the year, there were over 200,000 returns per month. That slowed to around 100,000 per month from January to March 2018, and less than that in May. While many people are leaving the north and center, very few are departing from the south. The IOM warned that many displaced may not go back due to several reasons. Those include people who are banned for their connection to IS, destroyed homes, and the lack of jobs. Iraq maybe reaching a tipping point where all those interested in going have mostly left, while those remaining either can’t go back or don’t want to. The same thing happened after the civil war when more than 1 million people remained in their new areas and never returned.

Displaced By Province

Province	March 31	May 31	Difference
Ninewa	665,910	620,628	-45,282
Dohuk	354,432	350,232	-4,200
Irbil	232,164	222,738	-9,426
Salahaddin	205,182	184,854	-20,328
Sulaymaniya	165,630	154,020	-11,610
Kirkuk	146,202	133,770	-12,432
Baghdad	128,064	107,832	-20,232
Anbar	84,552	81,192	-3,360
Diyala	78,054	64,674	-13,380
Najaf	36,900	30,396	-6,504
Karbala	34,680	27,018	-7,662
Babil	27,978	25,794	-2,184
Wasit	13,680	13,164	-516
Qadisiyah	13,926	12,882	-1,044
Basra	8,496	8,046	-450
Dhi Qar	4,476	4,098	-378
Maysan	3,126	3,006	-120
Muthanna	1,800	1,374	-426
TOTAL	2,205,252	2,045,718	-159,534

Returns by province up to May 2018

Ninewa 1,416,804

Anbar 1,254,654

Salahaddin 534,000

Kirkuk 286,462

Diyala 221,286

Baghdad 77,046

Irbil 38,736

Dohuk 780

Total Number of Displaced Oct 2017-May 2018

Month	Total Displaced	Difference
October 2017	3,174,678
November 2017	2,883,738	-290,940
December 2017	2,615,988	-267,750
February 2018	2,317,698	-298,290 (2 months)
March 2018	2,205,252	-112,446
May 2018	2,045,718	-159,534 (2 months)

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, “Displacement Tracking Matrix, DTM Round 84 November 2017,” 12/14/17

- “Displacement Tracking Matrix, DTM Round 86,” December 2017

- “Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM Round 92,” 4/19/18

- “Integrated Location Assessment, Part I Thematic Overview,” 12/10/17

- “Integrated Location Assessment II, Part II Governorate Profiles,” 12/10/17

OCHA, “Iraq: Internally displaced people by governorate (as of 31 May 2018),” 5/31/18

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Iraq: Internally displaced people by governorate (as of 28 February 2018), 2/28/18