Monday, June 11, 2018

Displaced Returns Slow In Iraq

The displaced continue to return to their homes in Iraq, but the rate is drastically slowing down. The previous trend was that as soon as an area was cleared more and more people started to head back. That is now slowing, which gives rise to the warning made by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that many people may never make that trip.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that there were 2,045,718 displaced at the end of May 2018. Most of those people are in central to northern Iraq. There are 620,628 in Ninewa, 350,232 in Dohuk, 222,738 in Irbil, 184,854 in Salahaddin, 154,020 in Sulaymaniya, 133,770 in Kirkuk, 107,832 in Baghdad, 81,192 in Anbar, 64,674 in Diyala, and 25,794 in Babil for a total of 1,945,734. The remaining 99,984 were in the south distributed between Najaf, 30,396, Karbala, 27,018, Wasit, 13,164, Qadisiyah, 12,882, Basra, 8,046, Dhi Qar, 4,098, Maysan, 3,006, and Muthanna, 1,374.

On the other hand, 3,829,758 people have gone home. Ninewa has received the most returns with 1,416,804, followed by 1,254,654 to Anbar, 534,000 to Salahaddin, 286,462 to Kirkuk, 221,286 to Diyala, 77,046 to Baghdad, 38,736 to Irbil and 780 to Dohuk.

In 2017 when the war with the Islamic State ended there was a huge number of people heading back to their areas. By the end of the year, there were over 200,000 returns per month. That slowed to around 100,000 per month from January to March 2018, and less than that in May. While many people are leaving the north and center, very few are departing from the south. The IOM warned that many displaced may not go back due to several reasons. Those include people who are banned for their connection to IS, destroyed homes, and the lack of jobs. Iraq maybe reaching a tipping point where all those interested in going have mostly left, while those remaining either can’t go back or don’t want to. The same thing happened after the civil war when more than 1 million people remained in their new areas and never returned.

Displaced By Province
Province
March 31
May 31
Difference
Ninewa
665,910
620,628
-45,282
Dohuk
354,432
350,232
-4,200
Irbil
232,164
222,738
-9,426
Salahaddin
205,182
184,854
-20,328
Sulaymaniya
165,630
154,020
-11,610
Kirkuk
146,202
133,770
-12,432
Baghdad
128,064
107,832
-20,232
Anbar
84,552
81,192
-3,360
Diyala
78,054
64,674
-13,380
Najaf
36,900
30,396
-6,504
Karbala
34,680
27,018
-7,662
Babil
27,978
25,794
-2,184
Wasit
13,680
13,164
-516
Qadisiyah
13,926
12,882
-1,044
Basra
8,496
8,046
-450
Dhi Qar
4,476
4,098
-378
Maysan
3,126
3,006
-120
Muthanna
1,800
1,374
-426
TOTAL
2,205,252
2,045,718
-159,534

Returns by province up to May 2018
Ninewa 1,416,804
Anbar 1,254,654
Salahaddin 534,000
Kirkuk 286,462
Diyala 221,286
Baghdad 77,046
Irbil 38,736
Dohuk 780
Total Number of Displaced Oct 2017-May 2018
Month
Total Displaced
Difference
October 2017
3,174,678

November 2017
2,883,738
-290,940
December 2017
2,615,988
-267,750
February 2018
2,317,698
-298,290
(2 months)
March 2018
2,205,252
-112,446
May 2018
2,045,718
-159,534
(2 months)

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, Displacement Tracking Matrix, DTM Round 84 November 2017, 12/14/17
- “Displacement Tracking Matrix, DTM Round 86,” December 2017
- “Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM Round 92,” 4/19/18
- Integrated Location Assessment, Part I Thematic Overview, 12/10/17
- Integrated Location Assessment II, Part II Governorate Profiles, 12/10/17

OCHA, “Iraq: Internally displaced people by governorate (as of 31 May 2018),” 5/31/18

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Iraq: Internally displaced people by governorate (as of 28 February 2018), 2/28/18

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Awesome article.

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