Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Bad Weather Leads To Decline In Iraq’s June Oil Exports REVISED

(Getty)

Bad weather in the southern province of Basra led to a decline in oil exports in June. That combined with a drop in prices led to a large decline in revenue for Iraq.

Iraq exported 3.52 million barrels a day of oil in June. That was down from 3.572 million barrels in May. Exports had been climbing since March, but bad weather meant that ships couldn't dock in the southern ports. That made the flow of oil through Basra go from May’s 3.441 million barrels to 3.39 million in June. Iraq is supposed to be following a new production quota set by OPEC to raise prices, but Iraq has never complied them, hence exports have climbed despite the organization’s new limits. Overall, Iraq exports are up over the first six months of the year versus last year at 3.53 million barrels vs 3.498 million respectively.

Basra Oil Exports
March 3.354 mil/bar/day
April 3.256 mil/bar/day
May 3.441 mil/bar/day
June 3.39 mil/bar/day

Prices for Iraqi crude declined for the second month. In April, a barrel sold for $67.41, the highest since October 2018. That went down to $66.68 in May, and $60.58 in June. That meant far less profits for the Iraqi state which is dependent upon petroleum. The government earned $6.397 billion in June, down from $7.384 billion in May. In the first half of 2019 Iraq has averaged $6.65 billion in revenue a month against $6.953 billion in 2018. Prices collapsed from over $100 per barrel in the summer of 2014. Efforts by OPEC and tensions in the Gulf due to the Trump administration’s Iran policy has helped prices slowly go up, but they have basically stayed around the same amount since the start of 2018 in the $60 range.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2019
Month
Avg Export (Mil)
Avg Price
Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2014
2.228
$102.37
$7.073
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$7.9
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.51
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.58
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.47
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.8
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$7
Oct
2.461
$81.12
$6.19
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.238
Dec
2.94
$57
$5.195
2014 Totals
2.517
$92.39
$7.017
Jan 2015
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.980
$48.24
$3.449
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.105
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.925
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.725
Oct
2.703
$39.56
$3.29
Nov
3.363
$36.42
$3.66
Dec
3.216
$29.84
$2.92
2015 Totals
3.003
$44.81
$4.094
Jan 2016
3.285
$22.21
$2.262
Feb
3.224
$23
$2.249
Mar
3.287
$28.40
$2.894
Apr
3.363
$33.38
$3.368
May
3.2
$37.78
$3.748
Jun
3.175
$40.36
$3.845
Jul
3.203
$38.28
$3.802
Aug
3.229
$29.24
$3.928
Sep
3.276
$38.89
$3.822
Oct
3.384
-
$4.426
Nov
3.47
$40
$4.216
Dec
3.52
-
$5.074
2016 Totals
3.302
-
$3.625
Jan 2017
3.321
-
$5.002
Feb
3.270
-
$4.514
Mar
3.258
$47.18
$4.766
Apr
3.253
$47.27
$4.607
May
3.261
$47
$4.623
Jun
3.273
$42.07
$4.144
Jul
3.230
$43.80
$4.386
Aug
3.216
-
$4.608
Sep
3.24
-
$4.882
Oct
3.346
$52.59
$5.456
Nov
3.502
$59.19
$6.021
Dec
3.535
$59.35
$6.504
2017 Totals
3.309
-
$4.959
Jan 2018
3.490
$63.29
$6.847
Feb
3.426
$60.14
$5.770
Mar
3.453
$59.95
$6.418
Apr
3.340
$64.60
$6.502
May
3.489
$69.80
$7.551
Jun
3.521
$69.32
$7.323
Jul
3.544
$69.16
$7.532
Aug
3.583
$69.65
$7.735
Sep
3.56
$74.15
$7.919
Oct
3.478
$73.38
$7.908
Nov
3.377
$61.09
$6.195
Dec
3.726
$52.80
$6.234
2018 Totals
3.498
$65.61
$6.953
Jan 2019
3.649
$56.15
$6.367
Feb
3.621
$60.83
$6.179
Mar
3.377
$63.80
$6.709
Apr
3.466
$67.41
$7.021
May
3.572
$66.68
$7.329
Jun
3.52
$60.58
$6.397

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, "Iraq hits half-year oil revenue target," Iraq Oil Report, 7/3/19

Malek, Miriam, “Iraq’s brighter oil future at odds with meeting OPEC quota,” Platts, 6/29/19

Reuters, “CORRECTED-Iraq’s total oil exports in June at 3.52 million bpd – oil ministry,” 7/2/19

Xinhua, “Iraq exports over 105 mln barrels of crude in June: ministry,” 7/2/19

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2 comments:

Humam Miscone said...

Joel, you need to correct "Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018" to "Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2019"

Joel Wing said...

Thanks for catching that!

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