Monday, July 1, 2019

Violence Dips During Islamic State’s Latest Offensive

(Iraqi News)

In April the Islamic State announced its latest annual spring-summer offensive Revenge of the Levant. Attacks spiked after a winter drop off. In June however, attacks went back down to roughly the same number as April.

There was a total of 99 Incidents in June. 6 of those were likely by pro-Iran groups however attempting to send a message of the United States during tensions between Washington and Tehran. That meant there were 93 by the Islamic State. That was a drop from the 135 recorded in May, and close to the 97 in April. Violence always goes up and down in Iraq, but the decline could be a sign that the militants are finding it difficult to maintain their momentum. That could be the result of a number of factors from heavier deployment of Iraqi forces to troubled areas, more targeted raids, to the lack of finances, etc. It will take more months to see what the overall trend is.

One major note is that two main sources on security in Iraq have been offline the entire month. That means that there were likely more attacks then recorded.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
Province
Jun 1-7
Jun 8-14
Jun 15-21
Jun 22-28
Jun 29-30
Anbar
8
1
1
1
2
Babil
1
-
2
-
-
Baghdad
3
4
7/5
1
-
Basra
-
-
0/2
-
-
Diyala
7
9
3
2
6
Kirkuk
3
5
-
10
-
Ninewa
4
2
3
2
-
Salahaddin
-
4
3
2
1
TOTALS
26
25
21/16
18
9

Casualties In Iraq By Province
Province
Jun 1-7
Jun 8-14
Jun 15-21
Jun 22-28
Jun 29-30
Anbar
7 (1K, 6W)
1 (1W)
-
-
-
Babil
-
-
2 (2W)
-
-
Baghdad
28 (9K, 19W)
1 (1K)
4 (4K)
1 (1K)
-
Basra
-
-
3 (3W)
-
-
Diyala
9 (6K, 3W)
5 (2K, 3W)
4 (4W)
2 (1K, 1W)
12 (3K, 9W)
Kirkuk
10 (2K, 8W)
8 (5K, 3W)
-
40 (11K, 29W)
-
Ninewa
9 (1K, 8W)
24 (20K, 4W)
2 (2W)
11 (3K, 8W)
-
Salahaddin
-
5 (1K, 4W)
4 (2K, 2W)
4 (1K, 3W)
-
TOTALS
63 (19K, 44W)
44 (29K, 15W)
19/16 (6K, 13/10W)
58 (17 K, 41W)
12 (3K, 9W)

There were 74 deaths and 122 wounded during the month. 3 of the wounded were by rocket fire on a complex used by international oil companies in Basra and likely done by a pro-Iran group. In total, 5 Hashd al-Shaabi, 21 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 48 civilians lost their lives, along with 21 Hashd, 39 ISF, and 62 civilians who were injured. Kirkuk with 58 casualties led the eight provinces reporting losses in July.

Violence in Anbar continues to fluctuate up and down. In January there were 16 incidents, going up to 27 in February, way down to 5 in March, up to 16 in April, back down to 7 in May, and then an increase to 13 in June. Almost all the incidents this month occurred in the first week of the month when there were 8 including five gun battles, and three suicide bombers killed. After that attacks puttered out to just 1-2 per week.

There were 13 incidents in Baghdad. That was the most since 14 in December 2018. IS operations in the capital province have completely fallen off since the winter of 2018. In September, during the last annual offensive there were 47 attacks in Baghdad. That went down to 30 in October, and then 13 in November and as low as 4 in March, before slightly crawling upwards to 10 in April and May each. The insurgents are obviously trying to return to the capital, but almost all the attacks are in the outer villages. Not only that but they are all small shootings and IEDs. There were two exceptions in June. First, IS set off an IED in Tarmiya in the outer north, and then when the ISF went to investigate they were ambushed leading to 6 ISF deaths and 15 wounded. Three days later they attacked a group of civilians in a town in that district leaving 2 dead and 4 wounded. If the organization wants to remain relevant, seriously threaten the government and earn a larger amount of money it has to make a comeback in Baghdad. So far it’s struggling to do that.

The rural areas of Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin are where IS is rebuilding. All four saw a decrease in attacks in June. Diyala is regularly the most violence governorate in the country. There were 27 attacks in June down from 35 in May. In Kirkuk attacks went from 35 in May to 18 in June. Ninewa saw a drop from 25 incidents in May to 10 in June. Finally, Salahaddin went from 20 in May to 9 in June.

Nearly every area of Diyala was hit in June, but almost half the attacks, 12 total were in the Khanaqin-Jalawla districts in the northeast. In October 2017, the central government took over the area from the Kurds after their independence referendum. There are not enough security forces there, and those that are compete with each other. This is being exploited and hence the spate of attacks there in recent months. There was only one suicide bombing in the country during the month and that was in Khanaqin. The militants were never able to seize any territory in the province in 2014, so it was the first place it reverted back to an insurgency allowing it more time to re-organize, hence the high level of operations there.

Violence in Kirkuk usually occurs in the south, but there were 8 attacks in Kirkuk City in June. That included a spate of IEDs and attacks upon a checkpoint and patrol at the end of the month. Kirkuk City is one of the few urban areas that IS still has access to. When the province was being liberated IS withdrew rather than fight. That allowed it to maintain many of its cadres there. They appear to be more involved in rebuilding than carrying out attacks however, as incidents have been very low since November 2018.

Incidents in Ninewa have gone through wide fluctuations. There were 9 attacks in January, up to 20 in February, down to 11 in March, and then 19 in April, 29 in May before 10 in June. That included four farms being burned. Two of the incidents were also old IEDs going off in Mosul, leftovers from the battle for the city.

Salahaddin was relatively quiet as well. There was one IED ambush in response to another IED that hit a Mukhtar’s house and two gun battles, but otherwise there was only an average of one attack every three days.

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-19
Anbar
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
45
67
13
4
6
5
7
3
Jan 2019
6
4
1
-
2
1
1
1
Feb
10
11
4
1
1
4
-
-
Mar
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
1
8
1
-
-
1
-
1
May
3
3
-
-
1
-
-
2
Jun
7
2
4
-
1
-
-
-
2019
Totals
29
29
10
1
5
6
1
4

Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
219
198
47
43
5
13
25
3
1
Jan 2019
21
2
3
8
-
-
1
-
-
Feb
18
2
5
7
-
-
3
-
-
Mar
7
6
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
13
15
2
4
1
-
1
-
-
May
11
13
3
5
-
-
13
(9 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
15
8
2
4
-
1
-
1
-
2019
Totals
85
46
16
30
1
1
18
1
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
172
182
39
18
10
14
29
9
6
Jan 2019
8
17
-
4
2
3
-
-
1
Feb
9
5
3
-
-
2
1
-
-
Mar
5
11
2
1
2
-
2
-
-
Apr
5
9
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
May
11
18
2
3
1
-
13
(13 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
5
10
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
43
75
11
10
5
5
16
-
1

Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
139
74
43
7
5
6
6
2
3
Jan 2019
6
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
8
3
2
2
-
-
1
-
1
Mar
6
1
3
-
-
-
1
-
1
Apr
6
6
1
-
1
2
2
-
-
May
8
8
1
-
1
2
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
1
Jun
2
5
-
-
1
-
4
(4 Farms Burned)
-
-
2019
Totals
36
23
7
2
4
4
14
-
3

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
110
102
41
18
1
16
4
9
5
Jan 2019
5
5
3
1
-
3
-
-
1
Feb
7
11
3
-
-
2
1
1
-
Mar
3
5
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Apr
2
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
May
10
9
4
1
1
-
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
4
3
2
-
1
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
31
35
15
2
2
5
7
1
3
(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018-19
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad/Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar/Ramadi
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul
2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
3
Dec
-
1
(1 – Ninewa)
1
Jan
1
(1 – Anbar)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
4
Feb
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
2
Mar
-
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
1
Apr
-
2
(1 – Anbar
1 - Salahaddin)
2
May
1
(1 – Baghdad)
3
(2 – Anbar
1 – Ninewa)
4
Jun
1
(1 – Diyala)
-
1

Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
Dead
(Total/By IS)
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7
62/60
45
63
Jan 8-14
58/56
58/56
66/63
Jan 15-21
62/59
151
151
Jan 22-28
59/51
140/136
65/63
Jan 29-31
24
21
21
JAN 2018
265/
250 by IS
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
366/
361 by IS
Feb 1-7
58/56
192/141
62/60
Feb 8-14
57
58
91
Feb 15-21
53/52
343
43
Feb 22-28
46/44
38/37
70/68
FEB
214/
209 by IS
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
266/
262 by IS
Mar 1-7
68/64
115/108
79/77
Mar 8-14
52
75
59
Mar 15-21
64/59
165/119
98
Mar 22-28
77/64
210/87
61/60
Mar 29-31
19/18
26/25
34
MAR
280/
257 by IS
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
331/
328 by IS
Apr 1-7
38/34
172/140
27/25
Apr 8-14
60/52
173/136
81/72
Apr 15-21
43/35
63/18
72/70
Apr 22-28
40/31
60/30
39/33
Apr 29-30
12/11
14/11
4
APR
193/
163 by IS
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
223/
204 by IS
May 1-7
45/39
52/43
55/54
May 8-14
55/51
68/46
49
May 15-21
35/32
55/26
80/75
May 22-28
49/46
72/62
51/49
May 29-31
16/13
39/30
15
MAY
200/
181 by IS
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
250/
242 by IS
Jun 1-7
50/44
96/87
29/28
Jun 8-14
67/59
107/47
88
Jun 15-21
40/35
82/28
19
Jun 22-28
45/44
53/38
62
Jun 29-30
17/15
21/16
14
JUN
219/
197 by IS
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
212/
211 by IS
Jul 1-7
50/49
56/52
90
Jul 8-14
42/39
56/47
31
Jul 15-21
50/45
59/42
63
Jul 22-28
29/24
61/53
19/15
Jul 29-31
23/21
25/13
11
JUL
194/
178 by IS
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
214/
210 by IS
Aug 1-7
43/39
49/45
30/29
Aug 8-14
43/42
38
44
Aug 15-21
38/35
24/21
40/37
Aug 22-28
35/31
25/19
61
Aug 29-31
27/24
68/30
43
AUG
186/
171 by IS
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
218/
214 by IS
Sep 1-7
38
44
54
Sep 8-14
48/43
63/55
127
Sep 15-21
44/38
90/74
70
Sep 22-28
36/33
22/17
27/26
Sep 29-30
9/6
19/10
29/25
SEP
175/
158 by IS
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
307/
302 by IS
Oct 1-7
54/49
85/25
92
Oct 8-14
43/41
161/152
41
Oct 15-21
54/50
87/72
35
Oct 22-28
24/23
24/20
53
Oct 29-31
23
10
24
OCT
198/
186 by IS
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
245 by IS
Nov 1-7
32/31
75/69
36
Nov 8-14
39/31
111/63
19
Nov 15-21
30/27
51/43
29
Nov 22-28
26/21
35/25
30
Nov 29-30
9/8
4
27
NOV
136/
118 by IS
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
141 by IS
Dec 1-7
22/15
21/8
11
Dec 8-14
22
15
22
Dec 15-21
23/21
23/16
17
Dec 22-28
30/28
24/18
37
Dec 29-31
15/14
225/220
4
DEC
112/
100 by IS
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
91 by IS
Jan 1-7
32/31
17/10
24
Jan 8-14
32/30
97/94
53
Jan 15-21
22/18
17/11
16/14
Jan 22-28
27/22
36/17
31
Jan 29-31
12
7
6
JAN
114
139
130
Feb 1-7
29/28
76
30
Feb 8-14
24
26
18
Feb 15-21
40
112
12
Feb 22-28
25
36
70
FEB
118
250
130
Mar 1-7
13
22
45
Mar 8-14
19/18
75/10
37
Mar 15-21
12/11
66/37
21/11
Mar 22-28
13/12
8/5
1
Mar 29-31
6
8
7
MAR
61
147
101
Apr 1-7
20
22
13
Apr 8-14
41
28
42
Apr 15-21
17/16
9/8
26
Apr 22-28
19/18
45/10
15
Apr 29-30
2
1
4
APR
99
105
100
May 1-7
18/17
9
17
May 8-14
24
31
41
May 15-21
37/36
62
39
May 22-28
43
39
54
May 29-31
13
16
48
MAY
136/135
162
199
Jun 1-7
26
19
44
Jun 8-14
25
29
15
Jun 15-21
21/16
6
13/10
Jun 22-28
18
17
41
Jun 29-30
9
3
9
JUN
99/93
74
122/119

Violence By Province Jun, 2019
Province
Violence
Anbar
13 Incidents
1 Killed
1 ISF
7 Wounded
1 Hashd
2 Civilians
4 ISF

7 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Grenade
1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomber Killed
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Babil
3 Incidents
2 Wounded
2 ISF

1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Mortar
Baghdad
15/13 Incidents
15 Killed
6 ISF
9 Civilians
19 Wounded
4 Civilians
15 ISF

10 Shootings
3 IEDs
2 Rockets
1 Mortar
Basra
0/2 Incidents
3 Wounded
3 Civilians

2 Rockets
Diyala
27 Incidents
12 Killed
5 ISF
7 Civilians
20 Wounded
5 ISF
6 Hashd
9 Civilians

15 Shootings
8 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Mortar
5 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk
18 Incidents
18 Killed
2 Hashd
7 ISF
9 Civilians
40 Wounded
4 ISF
6 Hashd
30 Civilians

5 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Rockets
Ninewa
11/10 Incidents
24 Killed
1 Hashd
1 ISF
22 Civilians
22 Wounded
2 ISF
6 Hashd
14 Civilians

2 Shootings
5 IEDs
2 Rockets
2 Fields Burned
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Salahaddin
10/9 Incidents
4 Killed
1 Civilian
1 ISF
2 Hashd
9 Wounded
2 Hashd
7 ISF

4 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Rocket

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