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| (Reuters) |
The United Nations just released a new report on the Islamic State and other jihadist groups. It warned that while IS has been defeated militarily in Syria and Iraq it is reverting back to an insurgency to make a comeback. That involves rebuilding its cadres and finances, dispersing its leadership so that they can survive, and adapting to its new situation.
The Islamic State faced its final defeat as a “state” in
March 2019 when it lost Baghuz in eastern Syria. The group suffered heavy
losses, but at the same time there were far more IS fighters than expected in
Baghuz when it fell. IS is now trying to rebuild its networks in the provinces.
That also includes spreading out its leadership to protect it. Some senior IS
leaders are said to have gone to Idlib for example. That’s the priority over
saving its rank and file. This effort has led to increased attacks in the
country. These are important points. First, estimates of IS fighters are
basically guessing games. The latest U.S.
inspector generals report to Congress believed there were 14,000-18,000
members in Iraq and Syria. The large numbers found in Baghuz could support
these figures. On the other hand, the fact that it is willing to sacrifice its
fighters to save its leaders could mean these numbers are too high or could be
on the decline. Second, the increased operations in Syria could account for why
there are so
few in Iraq this year.
IS lost in Iraq two years earlier than Syria which has given
it more time to rebuild there. The U.N. believes this has led to more progress
in that country than Syria. IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and most of the top
IS cadre are now believed to be in Iraq. If IS is more advanced in Iraq than
Syria it’s not being expressed in terms of attacks. Carrying out operations
however is only one part of what IS does so it might be spending more time on
training, collecting intelligence, raising money, etc.
Overall, the U.N. said that this is a period of
reorganization for IS. It has to re-establish its communications because the
group is now so spread out. The threat of messages being intercepted has also
led the leadership to delegate powers to its commanders, and told them they
have to become self-sufficient. It is also focusing upon preserving its core
Iraqi and Syrian fighters. That means the foreign fighters are considered expendable.
IS still wants to inspire international attacks even though it is no state to
carry them out itself. It’s hoping that its message and example will still be
powerful enough to bring people in from around the world and create acts of
terrorism. This is the second time the group is trying to rebuild in around a
decades time. It can draw upon that previous experience for this current
effort. Overall, IS’s focus appears to be upon conserving the resources it has,
and hoping that its core is enough to make a second comeback. This is helped by
the continued chaos in Syria and the lack of government presence in Iraq’s
rural and desert areas.
The last issue the report dealt with was the Islamic State’s
finances. The U.N. estimated that the organization still has around $50-$300
million. This is enough to run operations. It is seeking to expand this by its
usual tactics of a mix of crime such as smuggling, extortion, and kidnapping
for money, as well as running legitimate businesses. It might have a stash of stolen
artifacts it can sell too. It’s still able to move its cash around and
distribute it to its cells via couriers and money exchanges. Money is even more
important than its cadres right now because without sufficient funds there’s no
way they can do anything. The fact that they still have tens of millions of
dollars is a large stash from which it can build upon. It has plenty of
experience in mixing crime with business. Again, the situations in Iraq and
Syria facilitate this type of activity because governance is weak and
corruption is rampant.
Lots has been made of the Islamic State’s rebuilding effort.
The U.N. report was important because it provided lots of details like how much
money the group might have, its focus upon its core, etc. The fact that the
group has already gone through this before gives it the confidence that it can
do this once again. One of its catchphrases is to endure. The question now is
what can the Iraqi and Syrian governments and the international coalition do
about this? All three emphasize military means to counter IS. The U.S. is
providing intelligence to Baghdad, which is extremely important, but there is
little on countering the group’s financing. Right now the future of IS is up in
the air. It’s so early in its rebuilding effort there’s no clear signs upon
which way it will go. Attacks in Iraq for example have gone down to an all time
low. Does this mean it is having problems with its cadres or is it focusing
upon Syria or simply emphasizing other tasks for now hoping to ramp up
operations in the future? Only time will tell what will happen.
SOURCES
Lead Inspector General, “Operation Inherent Resolve, Lead
Inspector General Report To The United States Congress,” 8/2/19
United Nations Security Council, “Twenty-fourth report of the Analytical
Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted in pursuant to resolution 2368
(2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and
entities,” 7/15/19
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